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7 minutes ago, Paradis said:

2nd round O-linemen are batting +.700?? 

That's incredible. 

I'd like to see this broken down further (OT, G, C).  I imagine OT is far riskier than the the IOL positions, and lots of quality IOLs tend to fall to the 2nd round.

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Here’s another chart I saw from 2018...

https://forums.colts.com/topic/55663-draft-pick-position-and-success-rate/

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'd like to see this broken down further (OT, G, C).  I imagine OT is far riskier than the the IOL positions, and lots of quality IOLs tend to fall to the 2nd round.

I'd wager you're probably bang on. 

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8 minutes ago, Paradis said:

2nd round O-linemen are batting +.700?? 

That's incredible. 

And since 2000 we have found Jachai Polite and Vlad Ducasse in the 2nd round.  Awesome!

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Historic Success Chart

 

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

 

@Mike Maccagnan

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40 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is an old article, but I keep hearing that OL busts at the same rate as every other position.  According to his article (yes, it’s from 2015) it’s simply not the case.  OL is MUCH safer.   WR is a much riskier proposition.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

image.thumb.png.25bad057911777123218ac3c84445a15.png

 

 

image.png

Not really true.  All positions can be risky.  I can name so many OL taken very high that bust while those who fall to the middle rounds end up very good.  Personally I’m fine with either OL or WR at 11.  It depends on how the first 19 shake out

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48 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is an old article, but I keep hearing that OL busts at the same rate as every other position.  According to his article (yes, it’s from 2015) it’s simply not the case.  OL is MUCH safer.   WR is a much riskier proposition.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

image.thumb.png.25bad057911777123218ac3c84445a15.png

 

 

image.png

OT all day.

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57 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is an old article, but I keep hearing that OL busts at the same rate as every other position.  According to his article (yes, it’s from 2015) it’s simply not the case.  OL is MUCH safer.   WR is a much riskier proposition.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

image.thumb.png.25bad057911777123218ac3c84445a15.png

 

 

image.png

explains why mac took so many dline players in the first round.

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WR is one of the more difficult positions to get right in just about every round.  58% in round #1...49% round 2...25% in the 3rd to all the way down to just 12% in the 4th.  

Jeudy is an outlier as a talent to begin with.  Todd McShay would agree...he's one of the most impressive route runners he's ever seen in the history of the draft.  

Do Jets have a real good chance to get a scary big time difference maker at wide receiver with Jeudy at pick #11?  Or at the vastly lower % of success in rounds of 2-4?

IMO Jeudy's unique talents as a route runner who can get consistent separation, is a 80%+.  Add the fact that OL picks in the 2nd round are successful at a 70% rate.  So...

This confirms for me that even though OL is Jets most position of need. Picking Jeudy is the most important player for Jets to snare...if Jets stay at #11.

 

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

This is an old article, but I keep hearing that OL busts at the same rate as every other position.  According to his article (yes, it’s from 2015) it’s simply not the case.  OL is MUCH safer.   WR is a much riskier proposition.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

 

 

 

 

Did you finish the article? In conclusion: 

When Chase Stuart conducted a more granular (if anecdotal) look at offensive tackles using ProFootballFocus grades, for instance, he found what seems to be a healthy bust rate even for a position often tagged as one of the most reliable. 

That’s why, for now at least, it may not be possible to truly say whether certain positions are more or less likely to live up to their draft-day expectations. 

It also says there really isn't enough definitive info on the OLineman like there is on a QB or Receiver for instance and that may skew the numbers.

 

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The DL numbers and our frequency of DL draft is just so jetsy 

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5 minutes ago, southtown24th said:

OT all day.

Eh.  That chart is a self-fulfilling prophecy.   AV is judged by time starting.  Teams will continually start guys they drafted high on Oline.  Particularly G and C, which are also included in OL.  Think of it this way, Ereck Flowers, monumental bust has a 28, Same as Duane Brown and Mitch Morse, and better than Adrian Amos, Bud Dupree, Kwon Alexander, and twice what Dante Fowler got.  First round OL and QB play full time and get high AV  Other positions, particularly later in the draft are rotated and get a lower AV.

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Both the college and pro games have changed a lot since 1980, when a RB went #1 overall and the Jets took Lam Jones #2. I’d be more interested in the numbers since, maybe, 2000. Wide Receivers are coming out much more polished with colleges throwing more than the pros in recent years. Conversely, OL aren’t as well developed in these spread offenses. 

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48 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

WR is one of the more difficult positions to get right in just about every round.  58% in round #1...49% round 2...25% in the 3rd to all the way down to just 12% in the 4th.  

It's an incredibly difficult position to evaluate, because a guy can look like a men among boys at the collegiate level but find that his skillset doesn't translate to the pros.  Also, a lot of WRs tend to be headcases and/or divas, which doesn't help.  Justin Blackmon comes to mind as a talented kid with a lot of issues.

There's a strong case to be made to always avoid taking WR in the 1st round because its so risky.  But you also don't want to wait too long, either, because the pickings always get slim very fast.  

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

2nd round O-linemen are batting +.700?? 

That's incredible. 

That's only because the Jets rarely draft o-linemen in the 2nd round :-)

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34 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Eh.  That chart is a self-fulfilling prophecy.   AV is judged by time starting.  Teams will continually start guys they drafted high on Oline.  Particularly G and C, which are also included in OL.  Think of it this way, Ereck Flowers, monumental bust has a 28, Same as Duane Brown and Mitch Morse, and better than Adrian Amos, Bud Dupree, Kwon Alexander, and twice what Dante Fowler got.  First round OL and QB play full time and get high AV  Other positions, particularly later in the draft are rotated and get a lower AV.

I would also add that this study goes back to 1980.  The college game has changed, as has the prog game in the last 40 years.  Whether players at certain positions busted or not in the 80s nad 90s may not bear any resemblance to the success rates at drafting positions in 2000-20.  I would be curious to see how much different the data woud look if it were limited to the 2000s.

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1 hour ago, Greensleeves said:

Did you finish the article? In conclusion: 

When Chase Stuart conducted a more granular (if anecdotal) look at offensive tackles using ProFootballFocus grades, for instance, he found what seems to be a healthy bust rate even for a position often tagged as one of the most reliable. 

That’s why, for now at least, it may not be possible to truly say whether certain positions are more or less likely to live up to their draft-day expectations. 

It also says there really isn't enough definitive info on the OLineman like there is on a QB or Receiver for instance and that may skew the numbers.

 

Dude, It’s just an interesting data point.  No one said it was fact. 

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2 hours ago, Paradis said:

2nd round O-linemen are batting +.700?? 

That's incredible. 

Whats also incredible or not incredible is the last O Line the Jets picked in round 2 was a bust if I remember - Vladimir (turnstile) Ducasse!

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's an incredibly difficult position to evaluate, because a guy can look like a men among boys at the collegiate level but find that his skillset doesn't translate to the pros.  Also, a lot of WRs tend to be headcases and/or divas, which doesn't help.  Justin Blackmon comes to mind as a talented kid with a lot of issues.

There's a strong case to be made to always avoid taking WR in the 1st round because its so risky.  But you also don't want to wait too long, either, because the pickings always get slim very fast.  

You're right in most cases with the receivers in this class.

IMO though...Jeudy's skillset very much translates well for the pros.  Highly intelligent player.  Surprisingly a film study type of student of the game.  One who can quickly read a defense and instantly break his route with an explosive array of faints and moves, find the weak spots of the defense to get open, and receive the pass.  He has the best chance to develop chemistry with Darnold, and be a huge weapon for Gase's passing attack.

Polished, instinctive and cerebral...a combination like no other receiver in this draft.  Especially those in rounds 2-4. They will need more time to develop before they can shine.  If at all...according to those low success percentages posted here. 

Too often draft success is a crapshoot...especially at WR.  In this case...not with the unique talents of Jeudy. 

JMO.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

You're right in most cases with the receivers in this class.

IMO though...Jeudy's skillset very much translates well for the pros.  Highly intelligent player.  Surprisingly a film study type of student of the game.  One who can quickly read a defense and instantly break his route with an explosive array of faints and moves, find the weak spots of the defense to get open, and receive the pass.  He has the best chance to develop chemistry with Darnold, and be a huge weapon for Gase's passing attack.

Polished, instinctive and cerebral...a combination like no other receiver in this draft.  Especially those in rounds 2-4. They will need more time to develop before they can shine.  If at all...according to those low success percentages posted here. 

Too often draft success is a crapshoot...especially at WR.  In this case...not with the unique talents of Jeudy. 

JMO.

 

 

 

I’ve been so on the OT bandwagon all tase. And still am. 
but a lot of guys are making a very good case for Juedy. 

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I don't have anything in print to rely on, but I've also always believed that OL are much safer picks.

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1 hour ago, Lith said:

I would also add that this study goes back to 1980.  The college game has changed, as has the prog game in the last 40 years.  Whether players at certain positions busted or not in the 80s nad 90s may not bear any resemblance to the success rates at drafting positions in 2000-20.  I would be curious to see how much different the data woud look if it were limited to the 2000s.

Yes.  To see how positions were trending would be cool

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So if we’re planning on getting a WR, we need to do it in the first round. 

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8 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

TE and RB 0% in the 7th rd?  Can that be real? There has never been a RB or TE selected in the 7th that has made anything of himself in the league?   I hope JD has this chart.  

DB in the 7th Joe!     DEEEEEE BEEEEE

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8 hours ago, nycdan said:

And since 2000 we have found Jachai Polite and Vlad Ducasse in the 2nd round.  Awesome!

Polite was a 3rd Duder. 

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8 hours ago, rangerous said:

explains why mac took so many dline players in the first round.

He should have just waited till there 4th.  Much better % there.  

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Those OL numbers are heavily skewed by an interesting fact.  Guards and Centers are quite reliably chosen in the 1st and 2nd round and have quite a low bust rate.  Tackles on the other hand have a much higher bust rate, similar to WR numbers.

 

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