Bust Rate by position

[rangerous]

10 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

He should have just waited till there 4th.  Much better % there.  

remember when there were a couple of years when the jets drafted guys like brad smith in the 4th round and they turned out to be really good players?

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, slats said:

Both the college and pro games have changed a lot since 1980, when a RB went #1 overall and the Jets took Lam Jones #2. I’d be more interested in the numbers since, maybe, 2000. Wide Receivers are coming out much more polished with colleges throwing more than the pros in recent years. Conversely, OL aren’t as well developed in these spread offenses. 

 

I just put all WRs drafted in Rounds 1-5 from 2005-19 into a spreadsheet.  I'll be starting a thread in a bit with the results.  

[Savage69]

On 4/3/2020 at 4:17 PM, nycdan said:

And since 2000 we have found Jachai Polite and Vlad Ducasse in the 2nd round.  Awesome!

While no doubt we have screwed up 2nd rd picks Polite was a 3rd rd screw up..

[New York Mick]

That title has so much potential 

[Savage69]

40 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

That title has so much potential 

Still with the topless dancer state of mind Mick???

[Jetsfan80]

On 4/3/2020 at 7:29 PM, GreenReaper said:

You're right in most cases with the receivers in this class.

IMO though...Jeudy's skillset very much translates well for the pros.  Highly intelligent player.  Surprisingly a film study type of student of the game.  One who can quickly read a defense and instantly break his route with an explosive array of faints and moves, find the weak spots of the defense to get open, and receive the pass.  He has the best chance to develop chemistry with Darnold, and be a huge weapon for Gase's passing attack.

Polished, instinctive and cerebral...a combination like no other receiver in this draft.  Especially those in rounds 2-4. They will need more time to develop before they can shine.  If at all...according to those low success percentages posted here. 

Too often draft success is a crapshoot...especially at WR.  In this case...not with the unique talents of Jeudy. 

JMO.

 

 

 

 

I think Jeudy has a tremendously high floor, which makes him my top WR.  

The problem people have with him is his ceiling, probably.  It's rare that a receiver with his build ends up a HOFer.  I don't care much about that.  Beggars can't be choosers.  

[GreenReaper]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I think Jeudy has a tremendously high floor, which makes him my top WR.  

The problem people have with him is his ceiling, probably.  It's rare that a receiver with his build ends up a HOFer.  I don't care much about that.  Beggars can't be choosers.  

Jets don't have anything close to a #1 receiver.  And need one badly.  It's very unlikely Jets can draft such a receiver in rounds 2-4.  But they can more easily improve the OL in those rounds to give Darnold adequate protection and improve the run game.  

Jeudy...with his impressively polished route running, football smarts and instincts...will consistently get open and help Darnold make completions down the field.  IMO...he's the best candidate among this class of receivers to quickly develop chemistry with Darnold, and be that weapon for Gase's passing game. 

For me...it's Jeudy if Jets stay at pick #11.

[New York Mick]

21 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

Still with the topless dancer state of mind Mick???

Always 

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

Jets don't have anything close to a #1 receiver.  And need one badly.  It's very unlikely Jets can draft such a receiver in rounds 2-4.  But they can more easily improve the OL in those rounds to give Darnold adequate protection and improve the run game.  

Jeudy...with his impressively polished route running, football smarts and instincts...will consistently get open and help Darnold make completions down the field.  IMO...he's the best candidate among this class of receivers to quickly develop chemistry with Darnold, and be that weapon for Gase's passing game. 

For me...it's Jeudy if Jets stay at pick #11.

 

I think we can end up with a WR1 in round 2, and thus should look to grab our OT IF we like one that's available to us at 11. 

Historically its been very possible to find a WR1 in Round 2, and we know this draft class is stacked. 

SEE:

 

[jeremy2020]

On 4/3/2020 at 5:04 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

That's only because the Jets rarely draft o-linemen in the 2nd round

Hackenberg was way more successful at O-line than QB and he was a 2nd round choice.

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, GreenReaper said:

Jets don't have anything close to a #1 receiver.  And need one badly.  It's very unlikely Jets can draft such a receiver in rounds 2-4.  But they can more easily improve the OL in those rounds to give Darnold adequate protection and improve the run game.  

Jeudy...with his impressively polished route running, football smarts and instincts...will consistently get open and help Darnold make completions down the field.  IMO...he's the best candidate among this class of receivers to quickly develop chemistry with Darnold, and be that weapon for Gase's passing game. 

For me...it's Jeudy if Jets stay at pick #11.

That's the thing here, adequate isn't enough.  

We need to be better than that - Sam will be good enough to thrive with an "adequate" OL in a couple of years - but right now I think he's accurate enough and talented enough that giving him time is more important than giving him top talent at WR.

It's def. a tough call - but I choose time over WR talent.

[GreenReaper]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

That's the thing here, adequate isn't enough.  

We need to be better than that - Sam will be good enough to thrive with an "adequate" OL in a couple of years - but right now I think he's accurate enough and talented enough that giving him time is more important than giving him top talent at WR.

It's def. a tough call - but I choose time over WR talent.

It is a tough call.  If it's OL at #11 you'll be happier then me.  If JD goes Jeudy...☺️

[GreenReaper]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I think we can end up with a WR1 in round 2, and thus should look to grab our OT IF we like one that's available to us at 11. 

Historically its been very possible to find a WR1 in Round 2, and we know this draft class is stacked. 

SEE:

 

Lol...I had PC problems and didn't know or see this post. I used this very IndianaJet mock which shows Ruggs picked at #11 and Ezra Cleveland picked at #48.  Ruggs was my 2nd choice there.  

I realize JD could go OT at #11.  But as you say..."IF we like one that's available to us at 11."  

Not likely to be more then one or two OTs left by then.  Maybe none.  JD doesn't yet have a draft history for us to narrow down our predictions of how he's thinking and what he'll end up doing.

He's predictably been more focused in FA with the OL.  Lost Robby and quickly signed Perriman as a fallback option.  Which one is he most focused on now?  Will he choose the position that offers most value...the player that offers most value?  Or will his pick at #11 be based purely on most need...the player of most need?

Get your popcorn supply now and be ready...to find out April 23-25th.   

 

Can't wait! 

 

 

[Losmeister]

On 4/3/2020 at 1:06 PM, FidelioJet said:

This is an old article, but I keep hearing that OL busts at the same rate as every other position.  According to his article (yes, it’s from 2015) it’s simply not the case.  OL is MUCH safer.   WR is a much riskier proposition.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

 

 

thanks for posting

[The Crusher]

On 4/3/2020 at 4:17 PM, nycdan said:

And since 2000 we have found Jachai Polite and Vlad Ducasse in the 2nd round.  Awesome!

This post has been reported for excessive cruelty 

[JustInFudge]

On 4/3/2020 at 5:48 PM, slats said:

Both the college and pro games have changed a lot since 1980, when a RB went #1 overall and the Jets took Lam Jones #2. I’d be more interested in the numbers since, maybe, 2000. Wide Receivers are coming out much more polished with colleges throwing more than the pros in recent years. Conversely, OL aren’t as well developed in these spread offenses. 

Agreed 100%.  That was my first thought when I saw the time frame of the data.   I mean, lets be real here, comparing the players of the 80's when it was a totally different game is completely irrelevant.  And the draft was different back then too, so not sure why they didnt do a more focused analysis.  20 years is much meaningful than 40.

 

[TheMo]

This data is a bit misinterpreted. It's comparative. The worse other positions do the higher a given position will rank in this system. It's not saying OL selected in the second round are successful 70% of the time, it's saying that 70% an OL is a better choice than another position you could take in that spot. Sounds like semantics but really changes what the meaning of the graphs are. 

[JetFan20]

This is part of the reason I was really skeptical about taking Quinnen last year.

It’s incredibly rare for 300+ pound dlineman to have a major impact in today’s game.