Report: Jets Talking to Falcons About Trade Down

[Paradis]

14 hours ago, AFJF said:

Regardless of the round, the Jets need to trade down once or twice during this draft to add picks.  Eight isn't enough.

I agree about ideally trading down twice - but I'm not interested in accumulating a plethora of day 3 picks. If we can wind up with 4 to 5 picks total from day 2 in the draft (rounds two and three)  I'll be a happy camper. 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Conversely, they could be really high on Jefferson and see any of the top three WRs dropping as a bonus. 

But I do think the tackles are the focus. 

I could be wrong but it seems there’s a drop off in talent level around 15 or so.  And for the jets, who are clearly in the hunt for a #1 wr and OT, trading beyond 14/15, depending on who’s left, could be outsmarting themselves.  I do think one of the tackles will be there at 11, and i think either the raiders or broncos will trade into the top 10 for either lamb or ruggs.  I don’t think the objective is to get Jefferson and an extra 3rd rounder.  I think the objective in round 1 is to draft the guy who can become a pro bowler.  To me, for the jets, this means Thomas or one of the wrs.  

[TNJet]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

I could be wrong but it seems there’s a drop off in talent level around 15 or so.  And for the jets, who are clearly in the hunt for a #1 wr and OT, trading beyond 14/15, depending on who’s left, could be outsmarting themselves.  I do think one of the tackles will be there at 11, and i think either the raiders or broncos will trade into the top 10 for either lamb or ruggs.  I don’t think the objective is to get Jefferson and an extra 3rd rounder.  I think the objective in round 1 is to draft the guy who can become a pro bowler.  To me, for the jets, this means Thomas or one of the wrs.  

Agree 100%. Last season was the time to trade down from 3 and fix the oline.

[Melly-Mel]

6 hours ago, Jetster said:

He is really young, he did only play 1 year of college & even Bill Parcells hated rookies because they have so much to learn in the NFL. Jet fans are impatient because let's face it, we've picked nothing but busts for a long time now until we picked Adams & Darnold. 

Something tells me Joe Douglas is different. We'll see. 
yes

 

Yes 

 

[Jetscode1]

10 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Big 4 off the board at 16 again, but you might like this one a little better.

fwiw...I probably likes your a little better...but thanks for the link...only did 5 rounds.

[jetsons]

2 hours ago, Jetscode1 said:

fwiw...I probably likes your a little better...but thanks for the link...only did 5 rounds.

Change #48 to Denzel Mims & I'm good with it.

[bla bla bla]

6 hours ago, jetsons said:

Change #48 to Denzel Mims & I'm good with it.

Same, I'd be stunned if Mims lasts til #48 though.

[JustInFudge]

I havent read the thread or the story but help me understand why in the world this conversation would happening right+  What's the benefit for the Jets and who do the Falcons have in mind at #11 that wont make it to #16.  

I dont think the Jets have actually had conversation about swapping picks from 11-16.  There is no real benefit to the Jets to do this now.  It's 10000000x more valuable on draft day than it is right now.  What if by chance one of the QB's fall?  My thoughts is, the Falcons called JD and said, we want this guy, if he's there are you open to trading on draft day?  Because I see no benefit to doing this right now when you have no earthly clue who's going to fall.  It's not like moving #11 guarantees the Falcons anything.  Not to mention, the Falcons already have limited picks.  They're going to give up more, to move up now, with no clue who's going to fall to #11?

No.  Theyre not.

[section314]

22 minutes ago, JiF said:

I havent read the thread or the story but help me understand why in the world this conversation would happening right+  What's the benefit for the Jets and who do the Falcons have in mind at #11 that wont make it to #16.  

I dont think the Jets have actually had conversation about swapping picks from 11-16.  There is no real benefit to the Jets to do this now.  It's 10000000x more valuable on draft day than it is right now.  What if by chance one of the QB's fall?  My thoughts is, the Falcons called JD and said, we want this guy, if he's there are you open to trading on draft day?  Because I see no benefit to doing this right now when you have no earthly clue who's going to fall.  It's not like moving #11 guarantees the Falcons anything.  Not to mention, the Falcons already have limited picks.  They're going to give up more, to move up now, with no clue who's going to fall to #11?

No.  Theyre not.

This is more than likely exactly what happened. Just like if Dallas did in fact acquire about Adams last fall......"hey, if you are thinking of moving him, give us a call."

[Embrace the Suck]

17 hours ago, chirorob said:

It was a thing 1 guy devised for 1 draft 25 years ago, and people retreat it like the drafting bible.

Yeah, I think it was Jimmy Johnson.

[Dcat]

51 minutes ago, JiF said:

I havent read the thread or the story but help me understand why in the world this conversation would happening right+  What's the benefit for the Jets and who do the Falcons have in mind at #11 that wont make it to #16.  

I dont think the Jets have actually had conversation about swapping picks from 11-16.  There is no real benefit to the Jets to do this now.  It's 10000000x more valuable on draft day than it is right now.  What if by chance one of the QB's fall?  My thoughts is, the Falcons called JD and said, we want this guy, if he's there are you open to trading on draft day?  Because I see no benefit to doing this right now when you have no earthly clue who's going to fall.  It's not like moving #11 guarantees the Falcons anything.  Not to mention, the Falcons already have limited picks.  They're going to give up more, to move up now, with no clue who's going to fall to #11?

No.  Theyre not.

Derrick Brown maybe?  

[Jetscode1]

7 hours ago, jetsons said:

Change #48 to Denzel Mims & I'm good with it.

Mims was off the board.

[Snell41]

This board is getting a bit too crazy about offensive lineman. We can't have 20 Olineman. A team has a cap and needs to fill out the roster. We don't need more than one high pick on OL this year. We already have developmental guys. Also, we'll be absolutely fine if we grab one in the second round. I trust JD knows how to evaluate tackles and that his evaluation isn't the same as the draft guys. We shouldn't wait for WR or OL - they should be the top two picks, but the order can vary. The only way I can see grabbing more than one OL in the draft is if there is a center they like. 
All of this Quinnen bashing is off base. The guy is really young and can develop into a dominant presence. He showed flashes last year. Talk about not giving a guy a chance - he could end up being the most impactful player on our D in a year or two. He's so young and has a lot of potential. He can blow up plays all on his own. Can we please give the kid a chance. Greg Williams will develop him and we'll be happy to have kept him.

All of this Dwayne Robertson/Mo Wilkerson/Sheldon Richardson/Quentin Coples/Leonard Williams bashing is off base. The names change. The story is still the same.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Lil O]

10 hours ago, Jetscode1 said:

fwiw...I probably likes your a little better...but thanks for the link...only did 5 rounds.

I had...

J. Wills

michael pitman jr

Van Jefferson 

bryce Love-CB

nick Harris-center
Antonio Gibson

Trey Adams

I tried many different scenarios, but it always seem to work out best when I took an OT with the first pic, and took wide receivers with the second and our first third round pick.  Lots of talented RBs  in the later rounds.

[slats]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

I havent read the thread or the story but help me understand why in the world this conversation would happening right+  What's the benefit for the Jets and who do the Falcons have in mind at #11 that wont make it to #16.  

I dont think the Jets have actually had conversation about swapping picks from 11-16.  There is no real benefit to the Jets to do this now.  It's 10000000x more valuable on draft day than it is right now.  What if by chance one of the QB's fall?  My thoughts is, the Falcons called JD and said, we want this guy, if he's there are you open to trading on draft day?  Because I see no benefit to doing this right now when you have no earthly clue who's going to fall.  It's not like moving #11 guarantees the Falcons anything.  Not to mention, the Falcons already have limited picks.  They're going to give up more, to move up now, with no clue who's going to fall to #11?

No.  Theyre not.

It's not a trade they would do right now. It would be setting some parameters for a trade when the Jets are on the clock if the Falcons still want to move up and the Jets are looking to move down. I don't doubt that they've had talks of this type with a number of teams both ahead and behind them, and not only about the first round but later rounds, too. I doubt most draft day trades, especially in the first round, get put together -start to finish- in the ten or fifteen minutes that a team is on the clock. They all talk beforehand. This one just happened to get leaked. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Derrick Brown maybe?  

I guess but they need a lot and dont have a picks and they already have Grady Jackson.  They need pass rusher, CB, OL, RB, etc.  I guess maybe it could be a Kinlaw or Chaisson but maybe they're just doing their due diligence and it got leaked. 

[nycdan]

I think DEN is the team more likely to want a trade-up.  They have a strong need for a WR.  Below us, LV and SF are both strong threats to take a WR which means we are in the perfect slot for a DEN trade-up.  That would slide us from 11 to 15.  

This also presumes that all three of the top WRs would go between 11-13.  So if one OT is still available at 11, that leaves 14 as the only place the last OT might go.  Unfortunately, TB is going to want to protect Brady and OT is definitely on their wish list.  

So even if we only go down to 15, we are very possibly going to see all 4 OTs and all 3 WRs go right before that pick.  So even though it's only 4 slots, I would want a lot of premium on that trade-down.  DEN's 3rd rounder is approximate value.  I would want to see more in exchange for missing out on all of the top-7 guys we might be most interested in.  At least their 2nd.  Even then, I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense.

 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I think DEN is the team more likely to want a trade-up.  They have a strong need for a WR.  Below us, LV and SF are both strong threats to take a WR which means we are in the perfect slot for a DEN trade-up.  That would slide us from 11 to 15.  

This also presumes that all three of the top WRs would go between 11-13.  So if one OT is still available at 11, that leaves 14 as the only place the last OT might go.  Unfortunately, TB is going to want to protect Brady and OT is definitely on their wish list.  

So even if we only go down to 15, we are very possibly going to see all 4 OTs and all 3 WRs go right before that pick.  So even though it's only 4 slots, I would want a lot of premium on that trade-down.  DEN's 3rd rounder is approximate value.  I would want to see more in exchange for missing out on all of the top-7 guys we might be most interested in.  At least their 2nd.  Even then, I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense.

 

exactly.  picks 11-15 is where the top 4 OTs and top 3 wrs will go.  so if the jets want to trade back to the 14-16 range, they'd either need to be guaranteed one of these guys, or feel indifferent between taking a guy like thomas or josh jones.

i think lamb will go top 10, either to jax or to the raiders who trade up.  i also think at least one of the tackles will make it to 11, but likely, not more than 2.  so if thomas, jeudy and ruggs are available at 11, if the jets trade back even to 14 they could miss out on all these guys.  whether josh jones + a 3rd is worth it, that's debatable.  right now i'm of the opinion that the jets should stay at 11 and take the best tackle or wr there and move around in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  the jets can get a real difference maker at 11.

[bitonti]

im usually against trade downs (due to the Pace/Walter Jones year, as mentioned) 

but if there's any demand at 11 what so ever they have to do it 

it's just such a weird spot on the board. if they were at 16 they could take whoever from the top 3 WR or top 4 tackles fall plus 250 points of trade value which is like an extra 3rd round pick 

 

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

im usually against trade downs (due to the Pace/Walter Jones year, as mentioned) 

but if there's any demand at 11 what so ever they have to do it 

it's just such a weird spot on the board. if they were at 16 they could take whoever from the top 3 WR or top 4 tackles fall plus 250 points of trade value which is like an extra 3rd round pick 

 

I see a large set of possibilities where none of those 7 players fall to 16.  Call it a coin flip right now, but that's a big chance to take for an extra 3rd round pick.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

im usually against trade downs (due to the Pace/Walter Jones year, as mentioned) 

but if there's any demand at 11 what so ever they have to do it 

it's just such a weird spot on the board. if they were at 16 they could take whoever from the top 3 WR or top 4 tackles fall plus 250 points of trade value which is like an extra 3rd round pick 

 

it really doesn't look like any of the 4 top OTs or 3 top wrs will make it to 16, perhaps not even 15.  if they value josh jones highly, that could change the decision.  but i don't want douglas to get too cutsy and trade back and miss out on a top tier player like lamb or thomas b/c he got a bit too greedy.

[bitonti]

1 minute ago, nycdan said:

I see a large set of possibilities where none of those 7 players fall to 16.  Call it a coin flip right now, but that's a big chance to take for an extra 3rd round pick.

yeah maybe it's 50/50 but that extra 3rd round pick is worth the coin flip 

If 4 QBs go before 16 that helps matters (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love) - this might be the rationale, their take on what's happening in other camps 

someone will drop, most likely and if not, josh jones as a "safety school" pick is actually a better fit for the system than at least 2 of the big 4 OT. He's a George Fant clone in terms of measureables. The fans want some kind of blue chip stud like Thomas or Becton (cause why not) but it might actually be overkill in that offense.    

*

*

*

and side note the GM who can actually look at film and draft well has a unique opportunity to clean up this year due to imperfect workout metrics 

this year is like 1965-1970 style Joel Buchsbaum drafting 

From Michael Lombardi in the Athletic

Quote

Way back in 1986, when the NFL draft was 12 rounds long, it lasted an entire day and night and was conducted with few individual workouts. There were no pro timing days, no 30 team visits, no player interviews, no FaceTime chats, no 20-yard short shuttles, no cone drills, no medical data and zero hugs for players selected from then-Commissioner Pete Rozelle.

And guess what: All the teams made picks and survived.

In our draft room in San Francisco during that 1986 draft, we made several trades down and drafted several pro players, including one Hall of Famer named Charles Haley. After the fifth round, when we selected Patrick Miller, a linebacker from the University of Florida, 49ers head coach Bill Walsh became frustrated. He did not want to choose Miller but gave in to the Director of College Scouting, who thought Miller might be the best pick of our prior seven. (That proved inaccurate, as San Francisco’s 1986 draft class included Alabama DT Larry Roberts, Nebraska FB Tom Rathman, Texas-Arlington CB Tim McKyer, Delaware State WR John Taylor, Miami DL Kevin Fagan and Auburn OT Steve Wallace, along with Haley from James Madison).

 

if the Jets were to trade down it would be a bet on Douglas' ability to draft better than other teams. 

 

 

 

 

[bitonti]

9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

it really doesn't look like any of the 4 top OTs or 3 top wrs will make it to 16, perhaps not even 15.  if they value josh jones highly, that could change the decision.  but i don't want douglas to get too cutsy and trade back and miss out on a top tier player like lamb or thomas b/c he got a bit too greedy.

Andrew Thomas is getting nowhere near 11

He's the most pro ready of the Big 4 and he's got 36 inch arms. I have top 5 grades on him and Becton. 

I dont know enough/care enough about the WR to pretend to scout their values. But it seems like none of them are Julio Jones or Mike Evans in terms of size/speed. If they were "top tier" they wouldn't fall to 11. 

The real question is what if Wills falls but JD likes Jones better? Jedrick Wills had a bunch of penalties last year, 3 in the Iron Bowl alone.

JD would probably pluck his own eyes out Greek Tragedy style than make that guy his first ever Jets draft pick 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Andrew Thomas is getting nowhere near 11

He's the most pro ready of the Big 4 and he's got 36 inch arms. I have top 5 grades on him and Becton. 

I dont know enough/care enough about the WR to pretend to scout their values. But it seems like none of them are Julio Jones or Mike Evans in terms of size/speed. If they were "top tier" they wouldn't fall to 11. 

The real question is what if Wills falls but JD likes Jones better? Jedrick Wills had a bunch of penalties last year, 3 in the Iron Bowl alone.

JD would probably pluck his own eyes out Greek Tragedy style than make that guy his first ever Jets draft pick 

thomas could slip by, as could bechton.  i think it's 50/50 the jets take lamb or ruggs anyway.

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

I havent read the thread or the story but help me understand why in the world this conversation would happening right+  What's the benefit for the Jets and who do the Falcons have in mind at #11 that wont make it to #16.  

I dont think the Jets have actually had conversation about swapping picks from 11-16.  There is no real benefit to the Jets to do this now.  It's 10000000x more valuable on draft day than it is right now.  What if by chance one of the QB's fall?  My thoughts is, the Falcons called JD and said, we want this guy, if he's there are you open to trading on draft day?  Because I see no benefit to doing this right now when you have no earthly clue who's going to fall.  It's not like moving #11 guarantees the Falcons anything.  Not to mention, the Falcons already have limited picks.  They're going to give up more, to move up now, with no clue who's going to fall to #11?

No.  Theyre not.

 

It never hurts to try to draw up the framework of a potential deal well before you make it.  Otherwise you're trying to negotiate from scratch on draft day when you're a couple picks away or when you're on the clock.

It also might help establish to other teams that we're open for business at 11 and will have competition for the pick slot if others want it.  That could be a prime spot to move up for one of the top QB's if they don't  all get taken in the Top 10.  

We haven't seen an effective 1st down trade down in forever.  It's at least a little encouraging that there's some smoke there on this front.  We know Ozzie Newsome was one of the masters at moving up and down the board, so hopefully Douglas has that  skill as well.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, slats said:

It's not a trade they would do right now. It would be setting some parameters for a trade when the Jets are on the clock if the Falcons still want to move up and the Jets are looking to move down. I don't doubt that they've had talks of this type with a number of teams both ahead and behind them, and not only about the first round but later rounds, too. I doubt most draft day trades, especially in the first round, get put together -start to finish- in the ten or fifteen minutes that a team is on the clock. They all talk beforehand. This one just happened to get leaked. 

Damn you.

[Jetsfan80]

18 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

it really doesn't look like any of the 4 top OTs or 3 top wrs will make it to 16, perhaps not even 15.  if they value josh jones highly, that could change the decision.  but i don't want douglas to get too cutsy and trade back and miss out on a top tier player like lamb or thomas b/c he got a bit too greedy.

What if Douglas isn't enamored with ANY of the top OT's or WR's that might fall to us at 11?  Trading down then becomes the only good option so we don't have to reach for a player we actually like.

[slats]

38 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I think DEN is the team more likely to want a trade-up.  They have a strong need for a WR.  Below us, LV and SF are both strong threats to take a WR which means we are in the perfect slot for a DEN trade-up.  That would slide us from 11 to 15.  

This also presumes that all three of the top WRs would go between 11-13.  So if one OT is still available at 11, that leaves 14 as the only place the last OT might go.  Unfortunately, TB is going to want to protect Brady and OT is definitely on their wish list.  

So even if we only go down to 15, we are very possibly going to see all 4 OTs and all 3 WRs go right before that pick.  So even though it's only 4 slots, I would want a lot of premium on that trade-down.  DEN's 3rd rounder is approximate value.  I would want to see more in exchange for missing out on all of the top-7 guys we might be most interested in.  At least their 2nd.  Even then, I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense.

 

Denver has been my most likely partner for a trade down, too. And I agree, should the Jets make a move, they should demand a premium because of the whole “four OTs, three WRs,” thing. 

But I also think that we’re collectively putting way to much weight on the four OTs, three WRs thing. It’s very possible that the Jets (and many teams) have these players ranked differently, or more closely, etc. If three of the big four OTs are off the board, the guy left could be someone JD likes less than Matt Peart. Maybe he has Jefferson right there with the big three WRs. We get into these narratives every year because all of these draft reporters sorta feed off of each other and create these consensuses  that don’t actually exist in NFL draft rooms. Every year there are multiple surprises just for this reason. 

JD has been all about quantity in free agency, and it won’t surprise me if he goes the same route in the draft by trying to stockpile picks. 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What if Douglas isn't enamored with ANY of the top OT's or WR's that might fall to us at 11?  Trading down then becomes the only good option so we don't have to reach for a player we actually like.

i find this unlikely.  

[Augustiniak]

Just now, slats said:

Denver has been my most likely partner for a trade down, too. And I agree, should the Jets make a move, they should demand a premium because of the whole “four OTs, three WRs,” thing. 

But I also think that we’re collectively putting way to much weight on the four OTs, three WRs thing. It’s very possible that the Jets (and many teams) have these players ranked differently, or more closely, etc. If three of the big four OTs are off the board, the guy left could be someone JD likes less than Matt Peart. Maybe he has Jefferson right there with the big three WRs. We get into these narratives every year because all of these draft reporters sorta feed off of each other and create these consensuses  that don’t actually exist in NFL draft rooms. Every year there are multiple surprises just for this reason. 

JD has been all about quantity in free agency, and it won’t surprise me if he goes the same route in the draft by trying to stockpile picks. 

to a point.  i agree with the tackle theory.  but i do think douglas would take lamb or ruggs at 11 and not look back.  yes this draft is deep in wrs.  but those guys can really help darnold and change the offense immediately.  they need elite playmakers as much as a tackle if not more.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Augustiniak said:

i find this unlikely.  

Why?  You can't see a scenario where the 2 OT's that fall to us are Wirfs and Wills and he doesn't like either? 

Maybe it's less likely he passes on the receivers.  Jeudy would be a tough pass.  But he also may be of the mindset that he needs to come away with an OT in the first round.  After all, the guy was a former OL himself and was part of 2 orgs that drafted OL constantly.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

to a point.  i agree with the tackle theory.  but i do think douglas would take lamb or ruggs at 11 and not look back.  yes this draft is deep in wrs.  but those guys can really help darnold and change the offense immediately.  they need elite playmakers as much as a tackle if not more.

WRs are risky, as I pointed out in my analysis of all receivers taken from 2005-19 in another thread.  There's no guarantee at all that Ruggs or Lamb become "elite playmakers". 

He may well have those 2 a lot lower on his board than you think, even with all the news coming the last week about how much the Jets like Ruggs.  

There's a lot of receivers in that late 1st/2nd round range that can become very good players in the league, even if they fall short of elite.  I could easily see Douglas liking the "bang for the buck" he can get later on.

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

to a point.  i agree with the tackle theory.  but i do think douglas would take lamb or ruggs at 11 and not look back.  yes this draft is deep in wrs.  but those guys can really help darnold and change the offense immediately.  they need elite playmakers as much as a tackle if not more.

We’re all projecting to some degree. 

IMO, they’re hoping for an OT at #11, but would take the WR if they had one there graded significantly higher than their top OT on the board AND they were unable to make a move down. 

Both are huge needs that need to be addressed early and more than once. 

[nycdan]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

WRs are risky, as I pointed out in my analysis of all receivers taken from 2005-19 in another thread.  There's no guarantee at all that Ruggs or Lamb become "elite playmakers". 

He may well have those 2 a lot lower on his board than you think, even with all the news coming the last week about how much the Jets like Ruggs.  

There's a lot of receivers in that late 1st/2nd round range that can become very good players in the league, even if they fall short of elite.  I could easily see Douglas liking the "bang for the buck" he can get later on.

Three years from now, we could easily be staring at a 'redraft' that puts Higgins or Pittman ahead of all three of these guys (just picking them as examples).  Like Bitonti said, Jeudy and Lamb are not Julio Jones or Mike Evans.  They might turn out to be OBJ/AB good, but it's far from certain.  The odds are probably decent that at least one of the guys outside the 'big 3' will ultimately turn out to be the better player, although that's largely influenced by what teams/situations they all go to.

[chirorob]

3 hours ago, Embrace the Suck said:

Yeah, I think it was Jimmy Johnson.

It was.   I just meant it was 1 person's way of determining draft pick values for a specific draft, over 20 years ago.

(Good call though, it was Jimmy)