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4 hours ago, Maxman said:

3d printing. We can make stuff on demand in large quantities. We just have to be smart about it.

Yep, China has built their economy around 20th century mode of business.

Even Amazon, all the money spent on nationwide logistical network goes up in smoke if 3d printing ever arrives in a big way.

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2 hours ago, Snell41 said:

 


It’s funny, back in 1993 as a Sr in HS I had a substitute Social Studies teacher that was filling in for a couple months for the regular teacher. He was going on about the breakup of the Soviet Union, and then began to spend quite a bit of time talking about how that could happen here in the US, and even more alarming was he felt it WOULD happen in our lifetime. Some parents got wind and complained which shut him down from talking about it more, but he said a combination of massive debt and a major catastrophe along with strong political divides would likely be the impetus. He predicted America would divide into 3-5 smaller nations, with the East and west coasts and south coasts established as their own countries with seaports, and the Midwest fighting to join the south so they share that seaport access and more closely share political leanings with the south. It was interesting and stuck with me all these years, and I wonder if these next 20 years bear likeness to his prediction.


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Interesting, I've heard that scenario discussed a lot in the last decade. Never back that far though . In such a scenario the midwest would be valued for food production

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4 hours ago, Snell41 said:

 


It’s funny, back in 1993 as a Sr in HS I had a substitute Social Studies teacher that was filling in for a couple months for the regular teacher. He was going on about the breakup of the Soviet Union, and then began to spend quite a bit of time talking about how that could happen here in the US, and even more alarming was he felt it WOULD happen in our lifetime. Some parents got wind and complained which shut him down from talking about it more, but he said a combination of massive debt and a major catastrophe along with strong political divides would likely be the impetus. He predicted America would divide into 3-5 smaller nations, with the East and west coasts and south coasts established as their own countries with seaports, and the Midwest fighting to join the south so they share that seaport access and more closely share political leanings with the south. It was interesting and stuck with me all these years, and I wonder if these next 20 years bear likeness to his prediction.


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Pretty sure that was a TV miniseries, starred Robert Urich. I think it was called Amerika or Amerida,  something like that. 

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5 hours ago, Snell41 said:

 


It’s funny, back in 1993 as a Sr in HS I had a substitute Social Studies teacher that was filling in for a couple months for the regular teacher. He was going on about the breakup of the Soviet Union, and then began to spend quite a bit of time talking about how that could happen here in the US, and even more alarming was he felt it WOULD happen in our lifetime. Some parents got wind and complained which shut him down from talking about it more, but he said a combination of massive debt and a major catastrophe along with strong political divides would likely be the impetus. He predicted America would divide into 3-5 smaller nations, with the East and west coasts and south coasts established as their own countries with seaports, and the Midwest fighting to join the south so they share that seaport access and more closely share political leanings with the south. It was interesting and stuck with me all these years, and I wonder if these next 20 years bear likeness to his prediction.


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I live in texas.  Forget all the imports in the last 10 years from California and boston/NY.  A lit of Native Texans are ready to go.  We have oil, tech, cows and a water port.

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I live in texas.  Forget all the imports in the last 10 years from California and boston/NY.  A lit of Native Texans are ready to go.  We have oil, tech, cows and a water port.


Not quite a full break off, but an interesting move none the less:


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-09/california-declares-independence-from-trump-s-coronavirus-plans


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32 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

Not quite a full break off, but an interesting move none the less:


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-09/california-declares-independence-from-trump-s-coronavirus-plans


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Sweet!!!   Let 'em go.

Honestly, I don't think the nation has been this divided since the Civil War.

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3 hours ago, Snell41 said:


Well it wouldn’t be that simple given that the US would’ve giving up 3/4 of the western seaport access.


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It won't happen.  And probably it shouldn't, it's just crazy how divided people are.  Both sides.

I also don't want to accidentally turn this into a political thread.

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27 minutes ago, chirorob said:

It won't happen.  And probably it shouldn't, it's just crazy how divided people are.  Both sides.

I also don't want to accidentally turn this into a political thread.

I wish it would, or, better stated, I wish states had more righs/powers. Fed government should be smaller and focused on only  a subset of national issues like defense. Lets states compete for tax payers/citizens and the more tax dollars that go local the more influence a tax payer can have. Maybe less corruption?

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23 minutes ago, CTM said:

I wish it would, or, better stated, I wish states had more righs/powers. Fed government should be smaller and focused on only  a subset of national issues like defense. Lets states compete for tax payers/citizens and the more tax dollars that go local the more influence a tax payer can have. Maybe less corruption?

Agree

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What the Federal Reserve did on Friday is unprecedented.  They basically said that nothing will be allowed to fail.  They'll be buying high yield bonds, junk bonds, etc.  The Fed put a backstop on this whole thing and have basically gone all-in on keeping the ship afloat. 

Unemployment will be bad but this is a self-inflicted recession that's coming.  We chose this....and for good reason.  To save lives. A couple thoughts on the "Great American Comeback"....

1. I think there will be a snapback pretty quickly, not to where we were prior to COVID-19, but we may comeback about 60-70% pretty quickly.  There's lots of pent-up demand for things, whether its going out for a dinner or just routine maintenance, an AC replacement, Spring planting or whatever.  I think once we open the gates people will be buying stuff and doing things.

2. The biggest change will be the "new normal."  You can open every restaurant....but will people come inside?  Will people go back into a movie theater even if it's open?  Will you sit shoulder-to-shoulder with fans at a Jets game?

3. The comeback will spike about 60-70% but there will be longterm structural economic damage to major industries where people are forced to be in close proximity - air travel, cruises, theaters and stadiums, etc.  Until we get a vaccine I think no restaurant, stadium or airplane will really be full.

 

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8 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

What the Federal Reserve did on Friday is unprecedented.  They basically said that nothing will be allowed to fail.  They'll be buying high yield bonds, junk bonds, etc.  The Fed put a backstop on this whole thing and have basically gone all-in on keeping the ship afloat. 

Unemployment will be bad but this is a self-inflicted recession that's coming.  We chose this....and for good reason.  To save lives. A couple thoughts on the "Great American Comeback"....

1. I think there will be a snapback pretty quickly, not to where we were prior to COVID-19, but we may comeback about 60-70% pretty quickly.  There's lots of pent-up demand for things, whether its going out for a dinner or just routine maintenance, an AC replacement, Spring planting or whatever.  I think once we open the gates people will be buying stuff and doing things.

2. The biggest change will be the "new normal."  You can open every restaurant....but will people come inside?  Will people go back into a movie theater even if it's open?  Will you sit shoulder-to-shoulder with fans at a Jets game?

3. The comeback will spike about 60-70% but there will be longterm structural economic damage to major industries where people are forced to be in close proximity - air travel, cruises, theaters and stadiums, etc.  Until we get a vaccine I think no restaurant, stadium or airplane will really be full.

 

 On the phone with a smart , client who owns 2 restaurants in NY. He was basically saying he wonders if the employees will ever come back. Why should they. The unemployment is more than many of them earn working.  He is well capitalized BUT it will be like starting over.  Will need several hundred thousand dollars just to get started again.  I believe many small retailers won't be able to come back from this. 

The margins in restaurants are quite small but you have to hit breakeven which normally is $1 million in sales just to break even.  A small "Ice cream store" "Nothing Bundt Cakes"  for example needs $700 to 800, 000 in sales to break even. The next $300,000 in sales generates about $70,000 profit.  They will NOT make it back to $1 million in sales anytime soon.

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4 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

 On the phone with a smart , client who owns 2 restaurants in NY. He was basically saying he wonders if the employees will ever come back. Why should they. The unemployment is more than many of them earn working.  He is well capitalized BUT it will be like starting over.  Will need several hundred thousand dollars just to get started again.  I believe many small retailers won't be able to come back from this. 

The margins in restaurants are quite small but you have to hit breakeven which normally is $1 million in sales just to break even.  A small "Ice cream store" "Nothing Bundt Cakes"  for example needs $700 to 800, 000 in sales to break even. The next $300,000 in sales generates about $70,000 profit.  They will NOT make it back to $1 million in sales anytime soon.

We are open and shipping. Day 1 after the stimulus bill 1/2 of our warehouse staff no longer wanted to work.  Then it hit the call center. I now have back office staff that have done the math as well and are chirping about why work when they can make as much money to stay home? If there was ever a need for a temporary salary reduction we'd lose 25-40% of them instantly .

To me they should expand PPP and greatly minimize unemployment benefits restricting who can receive (service industry people who work on tips should get for example). Either way it costs the government a fortune, but the former keeps people employed, keeps supply chains moving and greatly accelerates any potential recovery. I think as usual the government has ****ed it all up.  I'm not advocating we help business instead of people, I'm advocating a solution that helps everyone. 

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5 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

 On the phone with a smart , client who owns 2 restaurants in NY. He was basically saying he wonders if the employees will ever come back. Why should they. The unemployment is more than many of them earn working.  He is well capitalized BUT it will be like starting over.  Will need several hundred thousand dollars just to get started again.  I believe many small retailers won't be able to come back from this. 

The margins in restaurants are quite small but you have to hit breakeven which normally is $1 million in sales just to break even.  A small "Ice cream store" "Nothing Bundt Cakes"  for example needs $700 to 800, 000 in sales to break even. The next $300,000 in sales generates about $70,000 profit.  They will NOT make it back to $1 million in sales anytime soon.

 

37 minutes ago, CTM said:

We are open and shipping. Day 1 after the stimulus bill 1/2 of our warehouse staff no longer wanted to work.  Then it hit the call center. I now have back office staff that have done the math as well and are chirping about why work when they can make as much money to stay home? If there was ever a need for a temporary salary reduction we'd lose 25-40% of them instantly .

To me they should expand PPP and greatly minimize unemployment benefits restricting who can receive (service industry people who work on tips should get for example). Either way it costs the government a fortune, but the former keeps people employed, keeps supply chains moving and greatly accelerates any potential recovery. I think as usual the government has ****ed it all up.  I'm not advocating we help business instead of people, I'm advocating a solution that helps everyone. 

 

These types of issues and anecdotal evidence tell me that some of these crazy high unemployment numbers could be a little artificial.  I know the majority of unemployment right now is true, businesses are closed, layoffs are happening, but we need to recognize that some percentage (whether that's 3%, 10% or whatever) of these cases might be "unemployed by choice" and people telling their bosses that, "Hey, I'm costing you money.  Just lay me off.  I'll be fine for a while."

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2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

These types of issues and anecdotal evidence tell me that some of these crazy high unemployment numbers could be a little artificial.  I know the majority of unemployment right now is true, businesses are closed, layoffs are happening, but we need to recognize that some percentage (whether that's 3%, 10% or whatever) of these cases might be "unemployed by choice" and people telling their bosses that, "Hey, I'm costing you money.  Just lay me off.  I'll be fine for a while."

I think we are into the moral hazard zone here, it's one of my biggest concerns with this whole thing. If I worked in a factory or warehouse or supermarket for $15 and hour and broke my back and risked illness, it's rational for me to say to hell with this and go collect unemployment and make more money. I

I'd have much preferred limited unemployment combined with PPP and federal bonuses for essential workers. We'll pay you $600 a week to go work in a  super market or warehouse, on top of what the company is paying you.

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16 hours ago, CTM said:

Anyone own or run a SMB going for PPP? If so has the experience been anything less than a debacle?

Yes... I have assisted about 10 clients in the process.   So far, none have funded but a few have been approved.  BB and T literally has misread the law and their application is simply faulty.  

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22 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Yes... I have assisted about 10 clients in the process.   So far, none have funded but a few have been approved.  BB and T literally has misread the law and their application is simply faulty.  

 We bank at Wells and were told they got 37B in requests in 1 day and only had 10B to loan. They capped at 50 employees

I know a few other business owners at other banks and nobody seems to know if they are approved or what at this point or what the criteria even is

Imo, it's a far superior idea than what they did with unemployment so they might as well open the flood gates 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I’ve been managing 2 locations in Manhattan in the fitness / Education / studio type space that are totally shut down due to covid. My business (mgmt consulting) has been turned down by two lenders for PPP so far and have a couple more apps being processed. Ridiculous.

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1 hour ago, Vader said:

I’ve been managing 2 locations in Manhattan in the fitness / Education / studio type space that are totally shut down due to covid. My business (mgmt consulting) has been turned down by two lenders for PPP so far and have a couple more apps being processed. Ridiculous.

Did they give you grounds on which you were turned down for?

Sorry.

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On 4/13/2020 at 7:13 PM, CTM said:

Anyone own or run a SMB going for PPP? If so has the experience been anything less than a debacle?

I own a small business and getting the PPP loan was a sh*t show but it came through.  

The American economy will come back but it will look different.  Restaurants will be basically wiped out, drive in theaters will come back, movies, airlines, and retail will undergo a major restructuring. I’m not afraid of the virus but I still won’t feel comfortable flying for a while.    Manufacturing will move way from China but remain mostly in asia with critical capabilities coming back onshore or near shore.   Things will change but we are still the best game in town.   The sooner things open the better obviously.  50% of jobs are from small business so this is a huge problem in the short term but American ingenuity is what makes us special and we will survive.  

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10 hours ago, Maxman said:

Did they give you grounds on which you were turned down for?

Sorry.

One said ineligible without qualifying that and the other said not long enough time in business for their lender. Granted, I started the business in January 2020 (converted from COO on w2 to ongoing contract) but it was definitely before the Feb 15 date to be in business and I was profiting. 

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10 hours ago, LionelRichie said:

I own a small business and getting the PPP loan was a sh*t show but it came through.  

The American economy will come back but it will look different.  Restaurants will be basically wiped out, drive in theaters will come back, movies, airlines, and retail will undergo a major restructuring. I’m not afraid of the virus but I still won’t feel comfortable flying for a while.    Manufacturing will move way from China but remain mostly in asia with critical capabilities coming back onshore or near shore.   Things will change but we are still the best game in town.   The sooner things open the better obviously.  50% of jobs are from small business so this is a huge problem in the short term but American ingenuity is what makes us special and we will survive.  

I agree with all of this except drive in theaters.  Too much land and so little is available...   you really want to sit in your car and watch a movie?

 

I would actually like to see a national movement to boycott China.

 

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Now this is straight-out-of-Horatio-Alger-pulling...er...yourself-up-from-the-bootstraps resourcefulness.

Strip Clubs Are Offering “Drive-Thru” Experiences During Pandemic

Masked-and-gloved adult dancers? We've reached "Cyberpunk 2077" levels of neo-dystopia.

A strip club in Oregon called Lucky Devil Lounge has created a “drive-thru” strip club experience to keep its business going during the pandemic, Oregon Livereports.

Customers slowly drive through a tent that contains four dancers and a DJ. The first 50 cars get a free roll of toilet paper.

“You pull in and you get one or two songs with the gogos, then we bring your food out to you and then you go on your way,” explained Lucky Devil Lounge owner Shon Boulden in a video report uploaded by The Oregonian.

“We’re continuing to keep our kitchen guys working, all of our bartenders, all of our dancers,” he added.

The venture’s food delivery service was formerly named “Boober Eats,” until Uber sent them a cease-and-desist letter, according to Oregon Live.

The business appears to be taking precautions to ensure the dancers’ safety. Reutersimages uploaded to Twitter (NSFW) show masked and gloved strippers pole-dancing while customers remain seated inside their vehicles.

The photos “confirm that we have reached the neon anime sci fi part of our future dystopia,” Sean Craig, reporter for The Capital in Victoria, Canada, wrote in the tweet.

Even the official Twitter account of the upcoming video game blockbuster “Cyberpunk 2077” chimed in, writing “please release more footage” in a Twitter reply. The game, slated for release in September, takes place in a dystopian “Blade Runner”-inspired world.

“Every small business is feeling this pain, the same hurt, and we’re just another small business,” Boulden told Oregon Live. “We’ve just been able to create this niche and it worked.”

A strip club in Las Vegas attempted to open its own drive-thru experience last month, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The venture, however, met a wall when Nevada mandated all nonessential businesses to close in mid-March.

Other businesses in the industry have chosen to go the virtual route. A New York City strip club decided to launch virtual reality lap dances, according to the New York Post.

“People need human connection and need to be entertained,” founder Kalin Moon told The New York Post. “VR is a great way to accomplish this from the safety of your own home.”

https://futurism.com/strip-clubs-offering-drive-thru-during-pandemic

VIDEO MAY BE NSFW ESPECIALLY THE HOME OFFICE.

 

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1 minute ago, munchmemory said:

Now this is straight-out-of-Horatio-Alger-pulling...er...yourself-up-from-the-bootstraps resourcefulness.

Strip Clubs Are Offering “Drive-Thru” Experiences During Pandemic

Masked-and-gloved adult dancers? We've reached "Cyberpunk 2077" levels of neo-dystopia.

A strip club in Oregon called Lucky Devil Lounge has created a “drive-thru” strip club experience to keep its business going during the pandemic, Oregon Livereports.

Customers slowly drive through a tent that contains four dancers and a DJ. The first 50 cars get a free roll of toilet paper.

“You pull in and you get one or two songs with the gogos, then we bring your food out to you and then you go on your way,” explained Lucky Devil Lounge owner Shon Boulden in a video report uploaded by The Oregonian.

“We’re continuing to keep our kitchen guys working, all of our bartenders, all of our dancers,” he added.

The venture’s food delivery service was formerly named “Boober Eats,” until Uber sent them a cease-and-desist letter, according to Oregon Live.

The business appears to be taking precautions to ensure the dancers’ safety. Reutersimages uploaded to Twitter (NSFW) show masked and gloved strippers pole-dancing while customers remain seated inside their vehicles.

The photos “confirm that we have reached the neon anime sci fi part of our future dystopia,” Sean Craig, reporter for The Capital in Victoria, Canada, wrote in the tweet.

Even the official Twitter account of the upcoming video game blockbuster “Cyberpunk 2077” chimed in, writing “please release more footage” in a Twitter reply. The game, slated for release in September, takes place in a dystopian “Blade Runner”-inspired world.

“Every small business is feeling this pain, the same hurt, and we’re just another small business,” Boulden told Oregon Live. “We’ve just been able to create this niche and it worked.”

A strip club in Las Vegas attempted to open its own drive-thru experience last month, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The venture, however, met a wall when Nevada mandated all nonessential businesses to close in mid-March.

Other businesses in the industry have chosen to go the virtual route. A New York City strip club decided to launch virtual reality lap dances, according to the New York Post.

“People need human connection and need to be entertained,” founder Kalin Moon told The New York Post. “VR is a great way to accomplish this from the safety of your own home.”

https://futurism.com/strip-clubs-offering-drive-thru-during-pandemic

VIDEO MAY BE NSFW ESPECIALLY THE HOME OFFICE.

 

 

 @CTM

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Sorry to hear all this....

Ive never had any luck making big money in my life, mostly because Im a paycheck guy and just dont have it in me to venture out. I have been able to live well because I dont spend foolishly, fix everything myself (never a truck out front, ever), have a great place on an island in Croatia from inheritance and have used my craftsman skills to fix up and flip a few houses and collect rent. But my salary. Lol. Still, I have zero debt, drive a nice but older BMW and live in a beautiful pool home.

But all this reminds me of what some people say about money. Its almost not worth making it. You work hard and lose half your retirement in the market while others get free health care and subsidized rent.

Honestly, when I go back home to Croatia in the summers I see my friends that live in old stone houses with ocean views that  make their own olive oil, wine, produce, fish and even though they dont “have anything” they really have a beautiful, social rich life when it comes down to it. They get together by the sea, eat foods that rich folks cant get, drink, laugh and chill.

Theres a whole other kind of lifestyle out there fellas

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6 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Sorry to hear all this....

Ive never had any luck making big money in my life, mostly because Im a paycheck guy and just dont have it in me to venture out. I have been able to live well because I dont spend foolishly, fix everything myself (never a truck out front, ever), have a great place on an island in Croatia from inheritance and have used my craftsman skills to fix up and flip a few houses and collect rent. But my salary. Lol. Still, I have zero debt, drive a nice but older BMW and live in a beautiful pool home.

But all this reminds me of what some people say about money. Its almost not worth making it. You work hard and lose half your retirement in the market while others get free health care and subsidized rent.

Honestly, when I go back home to Croatia in the summers I see my friends that live in old stone houses with ocean views that  make their own olive oil, wine, produce, fish and even though they dont “have anything” they really have a beautiful, social rich life when it comes down to it. They get together by the sea, eat foods that rich folks cant get, drink, laugh and chill.

Theres a whole other kind of lifestyle out there fellas

Really a deep post, Congrats.  I have clients that I swear would die if they stopped working. they love it. It makes them happy.  So, the end game is what makes you happy?  

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On 4/5/2020 at 9:49 PM, southparkcpa said:

As a CPA , I am predicting that 25 percent of all small businesses won’t make it through this.  Small gyms, restaurants, bars are easy to understand but other businesses are affected.  I have a printing client , owns his building and leases a part to a music store.  The music store has been DEAD for a month, can’t pay its rent, he can’t pay his mortgage, has laid off all staff. 
 

This will change us forever. Businesses have learned that they don’t need so much space , etc.  
 

This stimulus package? Will create inflation. 

Truth.

NYC is in big trouble. Just today Chase has decided to decamp, and sell their midtown HQ. Nobody needs to pay Manhattan prices.

Worse; if people think the subway puts their health at risk, NOBODY will want to work in NY. This is a serious problem and without being political the powers that be are unserious to the point of negligence.

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4 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Truth.

NYC is in big trouble. Just today Chase has decided to decamp, and sell their midtown HQ. Nobody needs to pay Manhattan prices.

Worse; if people think the subway puts their health at risk, NOBODY will want to work in NY. This is a serious problem and without being political the powers that be are unserious to the point of negligence.

I'm pretty middle ground about the relative risk of this whole thing and since early March I was strongly advocating to NYC friends they stay they hell off subways. hard to imagine a better transmission vehicle than a subway car. Densely populated with recirculated air and lots of cold metal surfaces that are touched by thousands. It didn't take an epidemiologist to understand this was going to be a far bigger problem in NYC than anywhere else domestically.

I'm not sure I'll feel comfortable getting on a subway without at least an n95 mask again, but seriously why bother. 

I'd hate to own commercial real estate in NYC or really anywhere right now

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On 4/7/2020 at 8:51 AM, chirorob said:

The government makes everything worse.

How about, quarantine the higher risk people and not utterly destroy the economy.  No matter what happens, the airlines and hotels are in trouble.  Hawaii which depends on tourism is in trouble.  Vegas is in trouble.  

Can you imagine what the smaller island countries that depend on tourism are going through?  

The images of Vegas during the draft were terrifying. Was supposed to either there or Key West this week for the post tax season vacation. Now tax season goes until July 15th and I'm still here grinding . Figure we'll meet our receipt target by then but this has totally sucked. At least I have that; some people don't know. Our houses are paid off, decent retirement savings, no credit card debt, almost all my nuts covered and a 1 more year of college for 1 Kid, and that's mostly paid for. But see a lot of people who are living hand to mouth.

Expect to see a lot of cash out refis, more stupid credit card debt, and a with the loosening of retirement withdrawals and loans, lots of crazy  people dipping into the retirements to live. That won't end well. 

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19 hours ago, LionelRichie said:

I own a small business and getting the PPP loan was a sh*t show but it came through.  

The American economy will come back but it will look different.  Restaurants will be basically wiped out, drive in theaters will come back, movies, airlines, and retail will undergo a major restructuring. I’m not afraid of the virus but I still won’t feel comfortable flying for a while.    Manufacturing will move way from China but remain mostly in asia with critical capabilities coming back onshore or near shore.   Things will change but we are still the best game in town.   The sooner things open the better obviously.  50% of jobs are from small business so this is a huge problem in the short term but American ingenuity is what makes us special and we will survive.  

Not sure I buy the whole American exceptionalism thing anymore. We seem to be exceptional in regards to acquiring debt and taking advantage of the dollars position as world currency/petro dollar.

There's been a lot of moves by Russia and China to topple that position over the last 15 years. Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out now that we are basically bankrupt with no realistic hope of ever becoming solvent short of hyperinflation or default. Being the worlds economic and military power isn't our birthright and empires like ours have all fallen eventually. Not sure why we think we'll be different. Sincerely hope not but I'm pretty concerned

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On 4/14/2020 at 12:05 PM, southparkcpa said:

Yes... I have assisted about 10 clients in the process.   So far, none have funded but a few have been approved.  BB and T literally has misread the law and their application is simply faulty.  

Yep, my exact findings as well with BB&T.,

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