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Dcat

some interesting PFF data on WR class

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This is % of receiving targets by route:

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This is % of receiving yards by route:

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Its interesting to see the break down of where these guys did their most damage,  but a lot of this is explained by the offenses being run at their particular schools and what these guys are asked to do. 

So for instance a high percentage of lambs yardage comes on crossing routes.  A large portion of what Riley does on offense is built around his mesh concept and his shallow screen game.  So even not seeing that data i could have told you that lamb received a large chunk of yards on crossing patterns, or that Higgins caught a lot of verticals or out routes (Clemson favors stick concepts in which the outside receiver has an option route to run either a vertical or quick out depending on DB alignment and depth).

 

 

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That is interesting.  I'm not sure what it tells us(obviously other than exactly what is says.) But this is the true value of PFF in my book, I like the data they produce.

Some things that stand out to me is that Lamb, who has concerns from some about his"route tree" doesn't seem to have any heavier reliance on a particular route or two than anyone else.

Aiyuk having nearly 50% of his targets on screens and go's is somewhat of a red flag to me.

For a "Big" Receiver, Higgins didn't do much shirt and intermediate middle.

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The one thing that jumps out at me from that is how diverse Ruggs' route tree is.  No concentrations of any one type of route; 14% slants is the highest percentage of any routes raun.  

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That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

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39 minutes ago, Lith said:

The one thing that jumps out at me from that is how diverse Ruggs' route tree is.  No concentrations of any one type of route; 14% slants is the highest percentage of any routes raun.  

I was just about to name Ruggs Mr. Diversity.  He does everything.  And well.  Jeudy too

 

36 minutes ago, RobR said:

That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

I was thinking that too. 

Again, there's merit to the point that the offense dictates what the players are to do, but still you have to figure that smart coaches would play to each of their strengths. 

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1 minute ago, Dcat said:

Again, there's merit to the point that the offense dictates what the players are to do, but still you have to figure that smart coaches would play to each of their strengths. 

Those guys that catch the bulk of their balls behind the LOS never seem to work out. It's why I was dinging Watkins when everyone was considering him the best WR in the draft that year. Evans was always my guy from the get go and that led to some great discussions.

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I think that % of targets is obviously heavily influenced by offensive scheme, but % of yards gives you a very revealing picture of just how successful that player was at that route. 

Ruggs, Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman for example on go routes.  Compare the differential on % of targets to % of yards and look at the gap.  Much higher % of their yards than targets for go routes.  These guys are successful at those.  Now look at CeeDee, Mims, Aiyuk.  % of targets and % of yards for the go route about the same.  Not as much success on go routes?  

Either that or Ruggs, Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman just flat out suck at the other routes.  :)

 

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53 minutes ago, RobR said:

That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

I would consider in Aiyuk’s case how lame the ASU offense was, part of that is simply having a QB with limitations- so much that he was voted the least accurate QB in the Pac 12. The other part of the equation is that Aiyuk has elite field vision/YAC and it’s also why he’s a very good return man as well. If you watch him play he really treats every pass like he’s returning a kick out there

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Doesn’t factor in YAC in context of breaking tackles and playmaking with the ball... some guys - most guys - catch it and get hit and are tackled... some guys not so much 

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7 hours ago, Lith said:

The one thing that jumps out at me from that is how diverse Ruggs' route tree is.  No concentrations of any one type of route; 14% slants is the highest percentage of any routes raun.  

First thing I noticed too.

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9 hours ago, Lith said:

The one thing that jumps out at me from that is how diverse Ruggs' route tree is.  No concentrations of any one type of route; 14% slants is the highest percentage of any routes raun.  

It is very interesting, and shows how versatile Ruggs is. He's not just a speed receiver, although he has great speed, and runs a very diverse variety of routes.

I'm really warming to the idea of Ruggs in the 1st round, if we don't have an OT we like there when our pick comes up.

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11 hours ago, cant wait said:

I would consider in Aiyuk’s case how lame the ASU offense was, part of that is simply having a QB with limitations- so much that he was voted the least accurate QB in the Pac 12. The other part of the equation is that Aiyuk has elite field vision/YAC and it’s also why he’s a very good return man as well. If you watch him play he really treats every pass like he’s returning a kick out there

Makes the adjustment so much harder though. Not only is everyone bigger, stronger, faster, and more athletic - but the player is being asked to do things he hasn’t done before.

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12 hours ago, RobR said:

That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

Thought the exact same thing.

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12 hours ago, RobR said:

That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

Here's the thing about Aiyuk, and why those numbers dont scare me that much - because that is the type of player he is likely going to be, he doesnt have the ceiling of a true NFL #1 WR and if you are taking him late second or even the 3rd (where I believe he goes) its fine to take a shot on a guy with a limited route tree, who can be a return guy and make some explosive plays, with the upside to develop into a #2 WR.

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12 hours ago, Dcat said:

I think that % of targets is obviously heavily influenced by offensive scheme, but % of yards gives you a very revealing picture of just how successful that player was at that route. 

Ruggs, Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman for example on go routes.  Compare the differential on % of targets to % of yards and look at the gap.  Much higher % of their yards than targets for go routes.  These guys are successful at those.  Now look at CeeDee, Mims, Aiyuk.  % of targets and % of yards for the go route about the same.  Not as much success on go routes?  

Either that or Ruggs, Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman just flat out suck at the other routes.  :)

 

Once you take away the elite route running of Juedy and the elite speed of Ruggs, and are looking for a WR that really can put the whole package together, I keep falling back to Pittman.

He is tall, fast enough, works on his craft, can block, has good hands, can run multiple routes, and to me just seems like a guy who will be a very good pro for a long time and could be an excellent fit on a team with a player like Crowder.

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Those numbers are interesting but don’t really tell the whole story about a prospects profile.  The routes run are primarily dictated by the offense that the receiver plays in.  We’ve seen guys run limited routes in college but come to the NFL and have great success with the majority of the route tree.   

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As far as Ruggs goes, for a supposedly “small speed only guy” he certainly did a lot of damage in the middle of the field.  

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16 hours ago, RobR said:

That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

Fun fact. If you take away Aiyuk’s production from screen passes he still has more yards than Ruggs. Aiyuk’s success at screen passes is really impressive but he was also excellent winning deep. His number would’ve been mind blowing if he had a QB half as good as Tua.  @Paradis compared him to DT and that looks apt. 

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16 hours ago, RobR said:

That is some damning numbers for Aiyuk. It's Tavon Auatin like and should scare any team.

A great example of when scouting is reduced to "ubiquitous stats" and fails to capture the crux of the issue. Put on a game and watch for yourself - he wins on the outside all the time... the problem is, the QB was a walmart edition of Christian Ponder. He had eyes for safety valves over the middle and little else. 

The Sun Devils had aggravatingly conservative QB play. 

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3 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Those numbers are interesting but don’t really tell the whole story about a prospects profile.  The routes run are primarily dictated by the offense that the receiver plays in.  We’ve seen guys run limited routes in college but come to the NFL and have great success with the majority of the route tree.   

100% this, this data wouldnt stop me from targeting a player.  It's interesting to dissect and maybe you can align this to your system but this isnt the end all be all by any means. 

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21 hours ago, Vader said:

Doesn’t factor in YAC in context of breaking tackles and playmaking with the ball... some guys - most guys - catch it and get hit and are tackled... some guys not so much 

It also doesn't take into account the QB/Offensive line/System. It's interesting to see but doesn't really change my mind on any of these guys. 

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7 hours ago, Paradis said:

A great example of when scouting is reduced to "ubiquitous stats" and fails to capture the crux of the issue. Put on a game and watch for yourself - he wins on the outside all the time... the problem is, the QB was a walmart edition of Christian Ponder. He had eyes for safety valves over the middle and little else. 

The Sun Devils had aggravatingly conservative QB play. 

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