Go on the record for a Jamal Adams trade (with analysis)

[JohnnyLV]

Let's assume the offer is 1st and 3rd from Dallas

I think everyone acknowledges that there is a certain amount of risk in trading Jamal. There is roughly a 25% chance that that you get 2 JAGs or complete busts, 50% that you got 1 solid starter and about 25% chance we get two solid starters  (I used the numbers in this thread for the rough numbers 

So the scenarios we are looking at are:

1. Keep Jamal. If we keep Jamal we likely extend him this year and say we get him for a bargain of $15 million a year. with equal cap hits over that time

2. We trade Jamal.

 With those 2 picks as mentioned we have 25% chance for it to be a flop, about 50% to get a solid starter (likely OT, WR or CB) and 25% to get two solid starters at OL, CB and WR.

Keep in mind there that we also have a chance to get a Pro Bowler with both of these picks. Rough odds are 16% in round 1, and  about 4% in round 3.  This gives around 2/3% of getting two pro bowlers (numbers from here https://www.catscratchreader.com/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors .

In addition though we save $15 million in cap as well. Figure $5 million goes to the rookies against the cap, leaves about $10 million. Looking at FA signings $10 million can get you a couple average to slightly below average starters (depth) or 1 decent starter (not likely to be a Pro Bowler

So the two scenarios boil down to this:

1. Keep Jamal and accept $15-$18 million against the cap for the next 3 or 4 years. Best case, Jamal continues to play as an All Pro box safety than gets a good number of TFL, QB pressures and sacks

2. Trade Jamal, have 2 additional Top 80 picks including a Top 20 pick, and additional cap to sign starting depth (1 or two additional players) Best (reasonable) case: 2 solid starters at OL, WR and CB and 2 additional average starters/ST players and depth.

Which do you choose ?

NOTE: I DO realize that there is a third option of just leveraging the 3 years of control we have on Jamal, but that gets super complicated so let's know go down that route. Going down it likely winds up in a similar position anyway with the above decision just delayed a year but with the draft compensation being way lower.

 

 

 

 

 

[TNJet]

Poll looks a little 1 sided thus far. Lol

[T0mShane]

It’d actually be $90 million in savings sir

[Beerfish]

I am one of the guys harsh critics, a 1st and a 3rd is not enough.

1,3 and a 3 next year at least.

[RedBeardedSavage]

12 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

 2. Trade Jamal, have 2 additional Top 80 picks including a Top 20 pick, and additional cap to sign starting depth (1 or two additional players) Best (reasonable) case: 2 solid starters at OL, WR and CB and 2 additional average starters/ST players and depth.

 

This.

Our team will only go as far as Sam Darnold's development. We need to bring in protection and weapons as soon as humanly possible. It's a shame that we can't keep Jamal and do that as quickly as I'd want. That's the previous GM's fault, not Jamal's fault nor Joe Douglas' fault. This is just the situation we're in.

If we acquired the 17th and 82nd pick for Jamal, I think that gives us the necessary ammunition to greatly improve the offense in a draft top-heavy in OT prospects and deep in WR prospects. I'm probably unwilling to make this trade most years, but this year, this draft class, I am willing. 

[CrazyCarl40]

I voted for a trade because I’d rather they trade him than extend him. What they SHOULD do is absolutely nothing unless an offer blows them away. Don’t extend him. There’s no need. 

[More Cowbell]

That is not enough value to trade him. I would need to be blown away to make a deal. The guy is an all pro. 

[nico002]

If it’s a draft day trade that allows us to get a top WR and OT I pull the trigger 

[Thai Jet]

29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I am one of the guys harsh critics, a 1st and a 3rd is not enough.

1,3 and a 3 next year at least.

Dream on.

[Larz]

If he’s worth 2 high picks...........

[MindOverMatter]

Trade Jamal. Draft OT/WR in the 1st Round with the 2 1st Rounders. Draft another receiver in the 2nd or with the 1st 3rd. Use the rest on C, CB, Pass Rusher, FS, RB, and another WR in the 5th or 6th round.

Watch Darnold finally play with a competent supporting cast, and shine.

Profit.

 

[TheMo]

Small quibble with the analysis. There is a 20% chance that one of the picks is a probowl level player. Voted for trade. Would want more like beer said but trying to play along here. 

[Jets723]

36 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

I voted for a trade because I’d rather they trade him than extend him. What they SHOULD do is absolutely nothing unless an offer blows them away. Don’t extend him. There’s no need. 

Exactly.  I think this is what happens.  Douglas has his price but he isn’t actively shopping him.  Unless we are blown away by an offer he is staying put for now 

[TheMo]

6 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Exactly.  I think this is what happens.  Douglas has his price but he isn’t actively shopping him.  Unless we are blown away by an offer he is staying put for now 

This I can agree with. 

[varjet]

If we trade Jamal we will need to use a relatively high draft pick for his replacement.  

Trading Jamal is in large part a money move and paying a SS a big second contract issue.  

But if the Jets used their second round pick for another safety and drafted OT and WR in the first round, I saved $15mm/Yr, I think it would be worth it. 

[Defense Wins Championships]

Who needs another analysis when you've got Jets drafting evidence as proof in the pudding? 

Roger Vick (1st). 

Dave Cadigan (1st). 

Blair Thomas (1st). 

Johnny Mitchell (1st). 

Kyle Brady (1st). 

Anthony Becht (1st). 

Bryan Thomas (1st).

James Farrior (1st and traded way too soon, lol). 

Dewayne Robertson (1st). 

Vernon Gholston (1st). . 

Mark Sanchez (1st). 

Kyle Wilson (1st). 

Quinton Coples (1st). 

Dee Milliner (1st). 

CALVIN PRYOR (1st). 

Darron Lee (1st). 

Alex Gordaon (2nd). 

Terry Williams (2nd). 

Browning Nagle (2nd). 

Kurt Barber (2nd). 

Coleman Rudolph (2nd). 

Ryan Yarborough (2nd).

Dorian Boose (2nd). 

Matt O'Dwyer (2nd). 

Alex Van Dyke (2nd).

Rick Terry (2nd).

LaMont Jordan (2nd). 

John McGraw (2nd). 

Victor Hobson (2nd). 

Justin Miller (2nd). 

Mike Nugent (2nd). 

Kellen Clemens (2nd). 

Vlad Ducasse (2nd). 

Stephen Hill (2nd). 

Geno Smith (2nd). 

Jace Amaro (2nd). 

Devin Smith (2nd). 

Christian Hackenberg (2nd). 

Yeah. Right. Great idea.

 Let's trade away our All-Rookie, 2x Pro Bowler and 2x All-Pro (3 years) and future HOF Safety (already Jets greatest Safety All-Time) for more draft picks and more busts lol

[SR24]

Trade Jamal for the picks and overhaul the offense. With our offense in the state it’s in we can’t afford to pay Jamal that kind of money and what better draft to have the extra picks. With 11 and 17 we should be able to leave with an impressive duo of OT and WR. Then we’d have a 2nd and 3 3rds to add Edge,Corner,WR and OL. 

[TheMo]

4 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Who needs another analysis when you've got Jets drafting evidence as proof in the pudding? 

Roger Vick (1st). 

Dave Cadigan (1st). 

Blair Thomas (1st). 

Johnny Mitchell (1st). 

Kyle Brady (1st). 

Anthony Becht (1st). 

Bryan Thomas (1st).

James Farrior (1st and traded way too soon, lol). 

Dewayne Robertson (1st). 

Vernon Gholston (1st). . 

Mark Sanchez (1st). 

Kyle Wilson (1st). 

Quinton Coples (1st). 

Dee Milliner (1st). 

CALVIN PRYOR (1st). 

Darron Lee (1st). 

Alex Gordaon (2nd). 

Terry Williams (2nd). 

Browning Nagle (2nd). 

Kurt Barber (2nd). 

Coleman Rudolph (2nd). 

Ryan Yarborough (2nd).

Dorian Boose (2nd). 

Matt O'Dwyer (2nd). 

Alex Van Dyke (2nd).

Rick Terry (2nd).

LaMont Jordan (2nd). 

John McGraw (2nd). 

Victor Hobson (2nd). 

Justin Miller (2nd). 

Mike Nugent (2nd). 

Kellen Clemens (2nd). 

Vlad Ducasse (2nd). 

Stephen Hill (2nd). 

Geno Smith (2nd). 

Jace Amaro (2nd). 

Devin Smith (2nd). 

Christian Hackenberg (2nd). 

Yeah. Right. Let's trade our All-Rookie, 2x Pro Bowler and 2x All-Pro (3 years) and future HOF Safety (already Jets greatest Safety All-Time) for more draft picks and more busts lol

Yes why draft at all. Let's trade away all the picks! Make it happen Tanny!

[Creepy Lurker]

Absolute no brainer. Trade his ass. 

[Lurker89]

@johnnysd

I don't see your name in the groups of voters....  

Make a poll like this and then you don't go on the record yourself.

I believe that makes you a bad faith actor just trying to stir the pot.

I like your style.

[Lurker89]

@johnnysd

 

I see you just voted.

 

Still like your style.

[Mogglez]

That haul isn't enough, IMO.  Not after what Minkah Fitzpatrick got.  That's my starting price.

[heymangold]

Man, thank goodness for another Jamal Adams thread.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

51 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Who needs another analysis when you've got Jets drafting evidence as proof in the pudding? 

Roger Vick (1st). 

Dave Cadigan (1st). 

Blair Thomas (1st). 

Johnny Mitchell (1st). 

Kyle Brady (1st). 

Anthony Becht (1st). 

Bryan Thomas (1st).

James Farrior (1st and traded way too soon, lol). 

Dewayne Robertson (1st). 

Vernon Gholston (1st). . 

Mark Sanchez (1st). 

Kyle Wilson (1st). 

Quinton Coples (1st). 

Dee Milliner (1st). 

CALVIN PRYOR (1st). 

Darron Lee (1st). 

Alex Gordaon (2nd). 

Terry Williams (2nd). 

Browning Nagle (2nd). 

Kurt Barber (2nd). 

Coleman Rudolph (2nd). 

Ryan Yarborough (2nd).

Dorian Boose (2nd). 

Matt O'Dwyer (2nd). 

Alex Van Dyke (2nd).

Rick Terry (2nd).

LaMont Jordan (2nd). 

John McGraw (2nd). 

Victor Hobson (2nd). 

Justin Miller (2nd). 

Mike Nugent (2nd). 

Kellen Clemens (2nd). 

Vlad Ducasse (2nd). 

Stephen Hill (2nd). 

Geno Smith (2nd). 

Jace Amaro (2nd). 

Devin Smith (2nd). 

Christian Hackenberg (2nd). 

Yeah. Right. Great idea.

 Let's trade away our All-Rookie, 2x Pro Bowler and 2x All-Pro (3 years) and future HOF Safety (already Jets greatest Safety All-Time) for more draft picks and more busts lol

I get your point, but none of those picks were made by Douglas. I'd rather give JD extra ammo to try and fix this mess. He clearly wants to build through the draft, so let's expedite the process a little bit by getting more picks. 

If he drafts like sh*t we're screwed with or without jamal.

[nyjbuddy]

The upside for this trade is a pro bowl player at either tackle or wide receiver.  On the opposite end is a complete bust.  The in between is a long time pro with many starts but never reaches the pro bowl.  Here are players drafted at or after pick 17 in round 1 since 2000 that have not been selected to a pro bowl: Jeff Backus, Anthony Castonzo, Nate Solder, Jeremy Maclin, Santonio Holmes, Michael Jenkins, or Brandin Cooks.  How many of these guys would have been a good trade for Adams?

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

9 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

That haul isn't enough, IMO.  Not after what Minkah Fitzpatrick got.  That's my starting price.

This is a better trade then the minkah trade. It's a first and 3rd.

Minkah was basically a 1st and swapping late Rd picks. 

Miami got a 1st, 5th, 6th. 

Pitt got minkah a 4th and a 7th

 

[Jet Life]

I’d trade him but a 1 and 3 isn’t enough 

[xboxjets]

Voted to sign him.

We should either extend him early this year before the salary cap explodes next year due to the new cba agreement or get back alot more than a middle of the round 1st and 3rd from the cowboys. They would have to throw in there 1st round pick the following year or one of there young starting Oline as well in order to get a young all pro. Just my 2 cents

[Dupe]

No man. The guy who is really good. Ths is stupid.  Why send negative vibes that we dont want him. 

[Mogglez]

8 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

This is a better trade then the minkah trade. It's a first and 3rd.

Minkah was basically a 1st and swapping late Rd picks. 

Miami got a 1st, 5th, 6th. 

Pitt got minkah a 4th and a 7th

 

Depends on how high the pick is.  Miami got a pretty decent pick out of it as Pitt missed the playoffs.  

Example: Dallas first in the low 20's?  Nah.

For all my complaints about him, Jamal is damn good player.  He should be able to net more than that.

[Lizard King]

He’s not a top 20 safety in any meaningful metric and if recent events in the economy have taught us anything its maybe not paying 90 million for a player who’s worth 30 

[Lith]

30 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

That haul isn't enough, IMO.  Not after what Minkah Fitzpatrick got.  That's my starting price.

You thinking of Jalen Ramsey?  He went for two 1s and a 4.

[JetFan20]

I want to Douglas to acquire more picks, but not at the expense of trading Jamal Adams. To me that’s counterproductive.

Also I don’t see how cap space is a selling point. The Jets have ample cap space and nobody to pay with the exception of Jamal. 

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

16 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Depends on how high the pick is.  Miami got a pretty decent pick out of it as Pitt missed the playoffs.  

Example: Dallas first in the low 20's?  Nah.

For all my complaints about him, Jamal is damn good player.  He should be able to net more than that.

 Dallas has the 17th pick

Dolphins have the 18th pick from Pitt. 

So not sure what your talking about

[LAD_Brooklyn]

I can only get behind such a trade if we're tanking. Therefore we can accumulate enough resource to surround Darnold with a some talent. If Darnold has an underwhelming year just draft a top QB (Trevor Lawrence) with that top 3 pick and hope a team take Darnold for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.