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Who will be the shocking top 10 pick?

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In many drafts, there is some guy that shocks by going much higher than projected.

Which player is going to go top 10 that has not been projected to go there to any great extent?

 

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Of all the teams in the top-10, I think CAR and JAX are the two that could most surprise us with an unexpected pick.  NYG might surprise us but at 4, I don't see them dipping outside of the expected pool of players.  But since ARI is probably no longer targeting WR, if they don't go OL, they could go in an odd direction.

JAX is more interesting.  If the top-3 QBs are off the board, could they shock us with Jordan Love?  They need a CB to replace Bouye so if Okudah is gone, could Henderson be a shocker?  They could also look to DL but there are a few guys (Kinlaw, Chaisson) that would not be too shocking at that pick.  

The only other surprise could be if one of the OL-needy teams decides to go outside the Big-4 because of system fit.  Maybe you see Jackson or Jones get picked by ARI or CLE.  

Too bad Gruden isn't in the top-10 because after last year, he would be my favorite to go in a weird direction.  Clelin Ferrell over Josh Allen.  Good one, John.  

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5 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Of all the teams in the top-10, I think CAR and JAX are the two that could most surprise us with an unexpected pick.  NYG might surprise us but at 4, I don't see them dipping outside of the expected pool of players.  But since ARI is probably no longer targeting WR, if they don't go OL, they could go in an odd direction.

JAX is more interesting.  If the top-3 QBs are off the board, could they shock us with Jordan Love?  They need a CB to replace Bouye so if Okudah is gone, could Henderson be a shocker?  They could also look to DL but there are a few guys (Kinlaw, Chaisson) that would not be too shocking at that pick.  

The only other surprise could be if one of the OL-needy teams decides to go outside the Big-4 because of system fit.  Maybe you see Jackson or Jones get picked by ARI or CLE.  

Too bad Gruden isn't in the top-10 because after last year, he would be my favorite to go in a weird direction.  Clelin Ferrell over Josh Allen.  Good one, John.  

There was a time , before everything was as sophisticated as it is now, when the Cards ALWAYS had a really strange 1st round pick. They'd pick someone projected to be a 3rd or 4th round in the 1st. Always a head scratching WTF? moment. Made for great TV.

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3 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

There was a time , before everything was as sophisticated as it is now, when the Cards ALWAYS had a really strange 1st round pick. They'd pick someone projected to be a 3rd or 4th round in the 1st. Always a head scratching WTF? moment. Made for great TV.

...says the Jets fan LOL

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10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

...says the Jets fan LOL

although not top 10, these were just fked up at the time they were made (in no special order):

Ken O'Brien, Jeff Lageman, Kyle Brady, Roger Vick...

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A guy that might surprise to me is Kenneth Murray, LBs picked top 10 last year played well for their teams.

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4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

In many drafts, there is some guy that shocks by going much higher than projected.

Which player is going to go top 10 that has not been projected to go there to any great extent?

 

Javon Kinlaw, DT from South Carolina. Most have DT Derrick Brown out of Auburn pegged as a top 10 pick, but Kinlaw is a better pass rusher on the inside than Brown. I can see a team valuing Kinlaw more than Brown and Brown falling out of the top 10. 

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4 hours ago, nycdan said:

Of all the teams in the top-10, I think CAR and JAX are the two that could most surprise us with an unexpected pick.  NYG might surprise us but at 4, I don't see them dipping outside of the expected pool of players.  But since ARI is probably no longer targeting WR, if they don't go OL, they could go in an odd direction.

JAX is more interesting.  If the top-3 QBs are off the board, could they shock us with Jordan Love?  They need a CB to replace Bouye so if Okudah is gone, could Henderson be a shocker?  They could also look to DL but there are a few guys (Kinlaw, Chaisson) that would not be too shocking at that pick.  

The only other surprise could be if one of the OL-needy teams decides to go outside the Big-4 because of system fit.  Maybe you see Jackson or Jones get picked by ARI or CLE.  

Too bad Gruden isn't in the top-10 because after last year, he would be my favorite to go in a weird direction.  Clelin Ferrell over Josh Allen.  Good one, John.  

Can't see the Giants passing on Isaiah Simmons or the Top OT at #4.  They're in a great spot.  If anything, I could see the Giants trade back a few spots maybe with a QB-needy team that wants to come up for Tua ahead of Miami (Chargers from #6 to #4?).  At that point they'd still probably get a great OT or Simmons.  I think the Giants are in an awesome spot this year.

Agree on Arizona not going WR now.  But they have needs on both lines.  I could see them going either OT or DT.  Could be any of the Top 4 OTs, or possibly Brown or Kinlaw.  I can almost guarantee it will be one of those 6 guys for the Cardinals.  I also think they might lean Defense since they just made the big move to get Hopkins.  Arizona could come back later in Round 3 for an OT.

I have no idea what Jax will do but they've lost a lot of talent on Defense.  I think it will be defender.  Either a DT like Brown, Kinlaw, or one of the top CBs.  QB is a wild card for them but I think they're leaning defense and will give Minshew madness another run in 2020.

 

Defenders and QBs....that's what we Jets fans want to see in the Top 10.  There are at least 5 worthy defenders (Chase Young, Okudah, Simmons, Brown, Kinlaw) and then 2, maybe 3 QBs who could go.  I want them ALL gone in the top 10! :D 

 

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I think the top ten is open enough that there won't be many potential surprises - at least for those of us here.

Burrow and Tua are widely expected to be drafted in the top ten, as is Herbert. I suppose Love could make four or three without Herbert and that would be a bit of a surprise.

Defensively Young, Okudah, and Simmons are all expected to be top ten picks. 

Offensive linemen are all viewed differently but nobody will blink if Wills, Wirfs, Becton, or Thomas goes in the top ten. Frankly Thomas might be the most surprising of that group.

Lamb and Jeudy could go in the top ten and nobody would be surprised.

Kinlaw and Brown could go in the top ten and nobody would be surprised.

Ruggs, maybe? Or Xavier McKinney if a team wants a safety? There's not a lot of room for guys to sneak in but obviously it only takes one team.

 

The more interesting question might be who falls...or how far back can the Jets move while ensuring that they get someone they want? 

For example - aside from the surprise guys (including Love) - so three QB's, three top defensive guys, four offensive linemen, two receivers, and two DL - that's 14 guys. The keys are the quarterbacks and the defensive linemen. But you get three quarterbacks, Brown/Kinlaw, and Young, Okudah, and Simmons in the top 13 that means one of the four tackles or Jeudy/Lamb will be there at 14. Every random guy who sneaks in ahead (Ruggs, Murray, one of the safeties, maybe Chaisson, the second corner) pushes guys farther back. And we know weird things are bound to happen. But to me that's a key cutoff point in this draft - top 14 prospects are really different from the rest of the class. 

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7 hours ago, Beerfish said:

In many drafts, there is some guy that shocks by going much higher than projected.

Which player is going to go top 10 that has not been projected to go there to any great extent?

 

I seriously doubt it happens this year, but if anything, I think Jags draft a CB. If Okudah and Simmons is off the board we could see CJ Henderson or Fulton go in the top 10, which right now nobody is projecting. 

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6 hours ago, Beerfish said:

A guy that might surprise to me is Kenneth Murray, LBs picked top 10 last year played well for their teams.

Good choice as I could see him as a surprise. He's a fantastic player that is seemingly being overlooked by the general consensus. 

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20 minutes ago, RobR said:

Good choice as I could see him as a surprise. He's a fantastic player that is seemingly being overlooked by the general consensus. 

So, I was watching the 2018 Rose Bowl the other day.  Georgia v Oklahoma.  Because i was bored and that was the greatest sporting event I ever saw live.  It loses a little something in the replay knowing that we lost the Championship.  But, anyway,I digress.  If freshman Kenneth Murray was anywhere near the player he is today, there is no way we win that game.  At least two or three huge runs by Chubb/Michel were the result of Murray being out of position or taking a bad angle.  The guy has come a long, long way since then.  And I agree he is a great choice as a surprise top 10 pick. 

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IDK if Ruggs counts as a surprise but I think he would be the one to go early

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17 hours ago, legends of the fall said:

Javon Kinlaw, DT from South Carolina. Most have DT Derrick Brown out of Auburn pegged as a top 10 pick, but Kinlaw is a better pass rusher on the inside than Brown. I can see a team valuing Kinlaw more than Brown and Brown falling out of the top 10. 

Beat me to it. He is really good. If he's on the board @11,I could definitely see JD fielding calls for him. I think he would be great for Tampa.....they have great edge guys and they could plug him in the middle to replace McCoy. And we would only have to drop 3 spots.

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22 hours ago, nycdan said:

Of all the teams in the top-10, I think CAR and JAX are the two that could most surprise us with an unexpected pick.  NYG might surprise us but at 4, I don't see them dipping outside of the expected pool of players.  But since ARI is probably no longer targeting WR, if they don't go OL, they could go in an odd direction.

JAX is more interesting.  If the top-3 QBs are off the board, could they shock us with Jordan Love?  They need a CB to replace Bouye so if Okudah is gone, could Henderson be a shocker?  They could also look to DL but there are a few guys (Kinlaw, Chaisson) that would not be too shocking at that pick.  

The only other surprise could be if one of the OL-needy teams decides to go outside the Big-4 because of system fit.  Maybe you see Jackson or Jones get picked by ARI or CLE.  

Too bad Gruden isn't in the top-10 because after last year, he would be my favorite to go in a weird direction.  Clelin Ferrell over Josh Allen.  Good one, John.  

No Clelin Ferrell fit the Type of De that the Paul Guenther ( Raiders DC) looks for.   Josh Allen was never going to be the pick.  After N Bosa went off the boards Ferrell was the closest thing To him in the draft.     With Maxx Crosby, C Ferrell , Carl Nassib, and Arden Key the Raiders have very nice rotation at De .( still might add someone to this group in the draft) . 
The Raiders had one of the best drafts in 2019, not to mention did very well in the undrafted Fa market too.     

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51 minutes ago, Raideraholic said:

No Clelin Ferrell fit the Type of De that the Paul Guenther ( Raiders DC) looks for.   Josh Allen was never going to be the pick.  After N Bosa went off the boards Ferrell was the closest thing To him in the draft.     With Maxx Crosby, C Ferrell , Carl Nassib, and Arden Key the Raiders have very nice rotation at De .( still might add someone to this group in the draft) . 
The Raiders had one of the best drafts in 2019, not to mention did very well in the undrafted Fa market too.     

Josh Allen was the pick to make. Ferrell is a nice player but was overdrafted by about 20 slots in the 1st round.

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6 hours ago, Raideraholic said:

No Clelin Ferrell fit the Type of De that the Paul Guenther ( Raiders DC) looks for.   Josh Allen was never going to be the pick.  After N Bosa went off the boards Ferrell was the closest thing To him in the draft.     With Maxx Crosby, C Ferrell , Carl Nassib, and Arden Key the Raiders have very nice rotation at De .( still might add someone to this group in the draft) . 
The Raiders had one of the best drafts in 2019, not to mention did very well in the undrafted Fa market too.     

You guys still don’t have a qb

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4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

You guys still don’t have a qb

We have a QB.    IF I was the Raiders I would draft any top three Wr’s  ( Ruggs, Lamb , Jeudy) at 12.     Trade back at 19 in late 20’s and take Wr Chase Claypool .     Let’s see Wr 1 - Any of the three mention.   Wr#2 Tyrell Williams 3 Wr #3 Chase Claypool  Te Darren Waller   RBs Josh Jacobs.       That kind of firepower challenges the Chiefs offense.  Second round pick rb  Rd Aj Dillon( acquired trading back).  With the offense line the Raiders have that would challenge the Chiefs for supremacy in the AFC West.

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On 4/10/2020 at 6:25 PM, GangGreen Machine said:

ILB Murray from Oklahoma, the Center Ruiz from Michigan or The TE Kmet from ND

No chance any of these guys are drafted top 10. Murray is the only 1st round pick here 

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On 4/10/2020 at 12:26 PM, Dcat said:

although not top 10, these were just fked up at the time they were made (in no special order):

Ken O'Brien, Jeff Lageman, Kyle Brady, Roger Vick...

And in more recent memory.... Quinnen Williams.  :( 

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On 4/10/2020 at 10:55 AM, Beerfish said:

In many drafts, there is some guy that shocks by going much higher than projected.

Which player is going to go top 10 that has not been projected to go there to any great extent?

 

Ezra Cleveland.

I would not be surprised to learn that more than one GM has him rated higher than the "top 4" that the media has grabbed a hold of.  Top 10 is a stretch but hey.. why not?  

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6 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

And in more recent memory.... Quinnen Williams.  :( 

But he was projected to be a top pick.   O'Brien, Lageman, Roger Vick... were way overdrafted.  By at least a round or more.  I'm thinking of Jets 1st rounds where the pick was NOT projected anywhere close. That doesn't necessarily mean a bust.  Lageman was a good LB.  It's why I wouldn't include Blair Thomas.  He was supposed to be a top 5.  Kyle Brady I think was projected to be a 2d round TE.  Anthony Becht is another.  I dunno.  It's depressing to think about.

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I could see CJ Henderson sneaking into the top 10 and Jax being able he team that takes him.  
 

For the Jets’ sake, I’m really hoping Kinlaw and/or Love go top 10.

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I think there is an excellent chance that Jordan Love goes top 10. All it takes is for one team to fall in love with him and his film from the 2018 - 19 season is outstanding. His play deteriorated sharply this past season playing in a new system and for a team with depleted talent but word at the combine was that several teams really liked him.  Now especially with the injury concerns surrounding Tua I wouldn't rule out him going top 10.

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But he was projected to be a top pick.   O'Brien, Lageman, Roger Vick... were way overdrafted.  By at least a round or more.  I'm thinking of Jets 1st rounds where the pick was NOT projected anywhere close. That doesn't necessarily mean a bust.  Lageman was a good LB.  It's why I wouldn't include Blair Thomas.  He was supposed to be a top 5.  Kyle Brady I think was projected to be a 2d round TE.  Anthony Becht is another.  I dunno.  It's depressing to think about.

I gotcha. I see now. It’s one thing for a guy to fail but another entirely to over draft someone and they fail.

In all seriousness JD may just be the first actual GM we’ve ever had. Sure Steinberg had the pedigree but he would be about it. And he flubbed more than not.

I have hope for this guy. It’s amazing how we have not been able to find an actual football GM throughout all of these years. This draft will be incredible exciting or emotionally deflating. I can’t wait. Haha


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

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14 hours ago, Raideraholic said:

We have a QB.    IF I was the Raiders I would draft any top three Wr’s  ( Ruggs, Lamb , Jeudy) at 12.     Trade back at 19 in late 20’s and take Wr Chase Claypool .     Let’s see Wr 1 - Any of the three mention.   Wr#2 Tyrell Williams 3 Wr #3 Chase Claypool  Te Darren Waller   RBs Josh Jacobs.       That kind of firepower challenges the Chiefs offense.  Second round pick rb  Rd Aj Dillon( acquired trading back).  With the offense line the Raiders have that would challenge the Chiefs for supremacy in the AFC West.

Carr is meh and is now regressing under Gruden.  He’s a Checkdown guy. He’s going to get benched at some point next season for Mariota who totally sucks

 

Raiders need to draft a qb or sign Winston

 

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6 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Carr is meh and is now regressing under Gruden.  He’s a Checkdown guy. He’s going to get benched at some point next season for Mariota who totally sucks

 

Raiders need to draft a qb or sign Winston

 

Carr is playing exactly how Gruden wants his QB to play.  http://www.nfl.com/player/derekcarr/2543499/careerstats    Gruden will take those numbers all day.   Gruden is very conservative.        You want to play that way you better have a defense behind you.   There is no accident they really upgraded their defense this offseason.   

Also Carr was suppose to have Antonio Brown and healthy Tyrell Williams.( Only first 5 weeks was healthy).    You take your number 1 and number 2 Wr out and what else did you expect. 

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On 4/12/2020 at 7:22 PM, Raideraholic said:

Carr is playing exactly how Gruden wants his QB to play.  http://www.nfl.com/player/derekcarr/2543499/careerstats    Gruden will take those numbers all day.   Gruden is very conservative.        You want to play that way you better have a defense behind you.   There is no accident they really upgraded their defense this offseason.   

Also Carr was suppose to have Antonio Brown and healthy Tyrell Williams.( Only first 5 weeks was healthy).    You take your number 1 and number 2 Wr out and what else did you expect. 

Antonio Brown couldn’t get away from Derek Carr quickly enough

 

Carr is becoming a worse version of what Ryan Tannehill was before he started handing of to Derrick Henry

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