Jags and Gints are the key

[Long Island Leprechaun]

I think it's pretty certain that the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns will go OT. Not definitive, but a very good chance. The Jaguars and Giants are the other two teams that could go OT before the Jets, assuming no trade-outs. The Jags have some questions about Cam Robinson's health, but are otherwise fairly stable (Robinson/Norwell/Linder/Cann/Taylor). Meanwhile, the Jags are shaky at CB and along the defensive line. I'm guessing that the Jags would go defense here, as they can shore up the OL with a later pick. The Jags have the 20th pick in the first, which would position them well for Austin Jackson or Josh Jones. I'm guessing Henderson at CB, or Derrick Brown at DT for their first pick at #9. The Giants are a shambles on defense. Meanwhile Jones was sacked regularly. Their OL is not terrible, although Solder is overpriced to say the least. Fleming was a new addition from the Cowboys. The Giants could certainly go OT, but the argument against is that they have their core starters. Hard to believe they would bench Solder at his high price, or Fleming, who they just brought on. Giants need an edge, LB's and a 1A CB, which Bradberry isn't. My guess is that they lean defense here (Simmons? Okudah?), or try very hard to trade out to a QB-thirsty team. That would be in our interests. 

If both go OT, we're left with a potential reach with Josh Jones or Austin Jackson, or a desperation trade down, unless JD is stuck and ends up with a WR.

Curious what others think re the Giants and Jags situation....

[ElBarrioJets]

What Gettleman does is anyone's guess, but it certainly seems like all the stars have aligned for them to take a tackle with their first pick. 

As for the Jags, Henderson seems like a match made in heaven that can bolster their secondary and he's a hometown guy. And as you mentioned, they have another pick in the first they can use on a 2nd tier tackle. 

Oddly enough I think AZ may NOT take a tackle. Humphries and Gilbert are their vet starters, taking a tackle later may be a better option for them to groom a guy to take over next year. 

There's always a surprise in the top 10. I think the surprise this year is that the tackles are going to last longer than everyone thinks. 

[Jetlife33]

Hopefully they both go defense. Jaguars have a huge need on the dline. Brown or Kinlaw hopefully. I still think the giants go Simmons. 

[choon328]

The key is the Dolphins IMO. There is so much smoke about Tua dropping I think the Dolphins take a tackle and I believe all 4 will then be gone by the Jets pick. The Dolphins have pick 18 and 26 to address QB if they choose to. 

Giants #4 (Protect a young QB), Dolphins #5 (Protect a young QB), Chargers #6, Cardinals #8 (Protect a young QB) , Jaguars #9 (Protect a young QB)  and Browns #10 (Protect a young QB) are all real threats to take a tackle. I think all 4 will be off the board by 11.

[PepPep]

21 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The key is the Dolphins IMO. There is so much smoke about Tua dropping I think the Dolphins take a tackle and I believe all 4 will then be gone by the Jets pick. The Dolphins have pick 18 and 26 to address QB if they choose to. 

Giants #4 (Protect a young QB), Dolphins #5 (Protect a young QB), Chargers #6, Cardinals #8 (Protect a young QB) , Jaguars #9 (Protect a young QB)  and Browns #10 (Protect a young QB) are all real threats to take a tackle. I think all 4 will be off the board by 11.

I dunno. The latest I've been hearing is that Tua's ahead of schedule with his rehab. There is no way Dolphins pass on their QB at 5 (Tua or Herbert) assuming he will be there at 18 or that they will be able to move up later on to nab him. You just can't do that.  You don't draft an OT to protect your young QB before you actually have your young QB. 

As much as you can can guarantee something you can't possibly know I think you can guarantee the following non-OTs go top 10 one way or another: Burrow, Tua, Herbert,  Simmons, Okudah, Young, Brown. Thats just my opinion.

I think its very much likely that the rest are OTs. There's a slight chance that one of the top WRs goes. Guys like Chaisson, Kinlaw and CJ Henderson are also wildcards, you never know, crazier things have happened. 

But overall, odds are at least one of the top 4 OTs will be there for the Jets. If he isn't, odds are the Jets should have their pick of the litter at WR AND/OR a team offering up to trade up for said WR or next best available prospect.  

[nycdan]

Dolphins "tanking for Tua" and then not drafting a QB would be very reminiscent of the NBA passing the "Allan Houston rule" and the Knicks then not cutting Houston.  The Knicks got torched for it and so should the Dolphins if they go any way other than Tua or Herbert at 5.

[slimjasi]

I think the most likely scenario is that he Giants, Cardinals, and Browns will all take offensive tackles.

If the Jags also take a tackle, this would mean the top 4 are all gone by the time we pick. 

In that case, I probably take my favorite WR and call it a first round. 

 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

38 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The key is the Dolphins IMO. There is so much smoke about Tua dropping I think the Dolphins take a tackle and I believe all 4 will then be gone by the Jets pick. The Dolphins have pick 18 and 26 to address QB if they choose to. 

Giants #4 (Protect a young QB), Dolphins #5 (Protect a young QB), Chargers #6, Cardinals #8 (Protect a young QB) , Jaguars #9 (Protect a young QB)  and Browns #10 (Protect a young QB) are all real threats to take a tackle. I think all 4 will be off the board by 11.

So what do they do with Solder and Fleming? Solder is a $13 mil cap hit if they dump him. Fleming was just acquired and was a starter for the Cowboys. Hard to believe the Giants are going to go the luxury route of an OT when they have starters at both LT and RT while their defense is full of holes and dreadful. But anything is possible.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, nycdan said:

Dolphins "tanking for Tua" and then not drafting a QB would be very reminiscent of the NBA passing the "Allan Houston rule" and the Knicks then not cutting Houston.  The Knicks got torched for it and so should the Dolphins if they go any way other than Tua or Herbert at 5.

Maybe, but I think both guys have legitimate issues that make them questionable top 5 picks. 

Tua's durability is major, major, major (underline major 37 times) concern. 5 surgeries before taking a snap in the NFL speaks for itself. 

Herbert is an interesting player, but there are a lot of people who think his ceiling doesn't warrant a top 5 pick. I honestly don't have a strong opinion one way or another about him, but if the Dolphins aren't sold on him, they shouldn't take him just because they need a QB. 

[Thai Jet]

IMHO Jags almost HAVE to go D with that 1st pick. Just too many holes to be filled on their D not too.

[nico002]

The Giants are a huge wildcard. They have zero impact players on defense, but they need blockers for Saquon. 

[JTJet]

55 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The key is the Dolphins IMO. There is so much smoke about Tua dropping I think the Dolphins take a tackle and I believe all 4 will then be gone by the Jets pick. The Dolphins have pick 18 and 26 to address QB if they choose to. 

Giants #4 (Protect a young QB), Dolphins #5 (Protect a young QB), Chargers #6, Cardinals #8 (Protect a young QB) , Jaguars #9 (Protect a young QB)  and Browns #10 (Protect a young QB) are all real threats to take a tackle. I think all 4 will be off the board by 11.

Possible yes, but Gettlemen plays to his own tune and I have a feeling he goes with Isaiah Simmons. 

Their defense was abysmal last year, far worse than their O Line, they have at least dumped some resources into the offense, and have not done so with the D. 

Annother reason is they need to be able to pressure Prescott and Wentz to keep up and stay in those divisional games, something they couldn't do this past year. 

Could go either way but I would be flabbergasted if they dont go with Simmons. 

[pdxgreen]

17 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Maybe, but I think both guys have legitimate issues that make them questionable top 5 picks. 

Tua's durability is major, major, major (underline major 37 times) concern. 5 surgeries before taking a snap in the NFL speaks for itself. 

Herbert is an interesting player, but there are a lot of people who think his ceiling doesn't warrant a top 5 pick. I honestly don't have a strong opinion one way or another about him, but if the Dolphins aren't sold on him, they shouldn't take him just because they need a QB. 

If the Dolphins are going OT at 5 then it's got to be because they plan to pick up Love later in the first round..  He'll probably be there almost exactly where their second pick.  That would make things a lot easier for us.  No way San Diego passes on Tua and maybe even Herbert gets taken by Jacksonville. Wow.  Cool.  Sign me up for that eventuality.

[nycdan]

12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Maybe, but I think both guys have legitimate issues that make them questionable top 5 picks. 

Tua's durability is major, major, major (underline major 37 times) concern. 5 surgeries before taking a snap in the NFL speaks for itself. 

Herbert is an interesting player, but there are a lot of people who think his ceiling doesn't warrant a top 5 pick. I honestly don't have a strong opinion one way or another about him, but if the Dolphins aren't sold on him, they shouldn't take him just because they need a QB. 

We've seen this for well over a decade.  You just can't predict when you'll be in position to draft a QB at the top of the draft.  Watson and Mahomes were an aberration but when you're top-5 and you need a QB, you draft a QB.  Even if it's a bit of a reach.  Because otherwise you're just spinning your wheels.  Why trade Tunsil for a draft pick only to burn your top (and higher) pick on a replacement?  It looks like a lack of a plan in that context.  Tua and Herbert have questions, sure, but this isn't a draft where the best prospect is EJ Manuel.  Both of those guys have legitimate starter potential.  Neither of them will be available with their second pick.  I would hate to have to be them making the pick but on the other hand, if they end up with Jake Fromm or Jalen Hurts as their top QB pick after trading away every talented player on the team to stockpile picks for this draft, that would be a 'fire-the-GM' moment.

[TNJet]

There's no certainty that the Browns and Jaguars take a T. Possible but not certain. Heck the Browns have a history of taking the wrong players that why they haven't been to the postseason since the early 90s or before. They're so smart they took Baker over Sam 2 years ago. Not smart at all.

[k-met57]

lots of noise about Atlanta trading into either 10 or 11 for Kinlaw.

[choon328]

18 hours ago, PepPep said:

I dunno. The latest I've been hearing is that Tua's ahead of schedule with his rehab. There is no way Dolphins pass on their QB at 5 (Tua or Herbert) assuming he will be there at 18 or that they will be able to move up later on to nab him. You just can't do that.  You don't draft an OT to protect your young QB before you actually have your young QB. 

As much as you can can guarantee something you can't possibly know I think you can guarantee the following non-OTs go top 10 one way or another: Burrow, Tua, Herbert,  Simmons, Okudah, Young, Brown. Thats just my opinion.

I think its very much likely that the rest are OTs. There's a slight chance that one of the top WRs goes. Guys like Chaisson, Kinlaw and CJ Henderson are also wildcards, you never know, crazier things have happened. 

But overall, odds are at least one of the top 4 OTs will be there for the Jets. If he isn't, odds are the Jets should have their pick of the litter at WR AND/OR a team offering up to trade up for said WR or next best available prospect.  

There was already a report about a wrist surgery that came up during one of the physicals that was never disclosed. Reports that he failed 2 team physicals already. He's going to fall out of the top 10. It wouldn't shock me if Cam or Winston go to Miami after the draft. It's not necessary that they find their QB this year. And Tua is a year away from playing in my opinion. There is just a ton of red flags to use a top 5 pick on him. Herbert and the rest are 2nd round talents being pushed up bc the class is not top heavy at QB. The depth is in the 2nd-5th round

[choon328]

21 minutes ago, TNJet said:

There's no certainty that the Browns and Jaguars take a T. Possible but not certain. Heck the Browns have a history of taking the wrong players that why they haven't been to the postseason since the early 90s or before. They're so smart they took Baker over Sam 2 years ago. Not smart at all.

In my opinion teams are wising up to the fact that they need to protect these young QB's at all costs and it's way too expensive and rare to be able to do that through FA. Even a team like Washington wouldn't surprise me if they took a LT at #2 and then traded Williams for a mid round pick.

[choon328]

48 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

So what do they do with Solder and Fleming? Solder is a $13 mil cap hit if they dump him. Fleming was just acquired and was a starter for the Cowboys. Hard to believe the Giants are going to go the luxury route of an OT when they have starters at both LT and RT while their defense is full of holes and dreadful. But anything is possible.

Fleming started 3 games last year with the Cowboys and he's been a career backup. He's never been a full time starter. He's also played Guard. Adding Fleming won't stop them from drafting an actual starter at Tackle.

[RichardTodd27]

Jax seems like they have a lot of quality young talent on the O-line. Don't see them going that way, but you never know.

As for the Giants, all signs point to them taking a tackle. But then again, Gettleman is their GM. So you also never know.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

6 minutes ago, choon328 said:

In my opinion teams are wising up to the fact that they need to protect these young QB's at all costs and it's way too expensive and rare to be able to do that through FA. Even a team like Washington wouldn't surprise me if they took a LT at #2 and then traded Williams for a mid round pick.

"At all costs." That's the issue. No half-decent GM is going to grab a back-up at the top of the draft when they have holes at starter all over the place. Gettleman sucks, but he has brought in Fleming and is tied to Solder for two years. How are they going to address their defense, which is one of the worst in the league?

[RichardTodd27]

32 minutes ago, TNJet said:

There's no certainty that the Browns and Jaguars take a T.

I'm pretty certain the Browns are going Tackle at #10.

But I'm hoping for a scenario where Cleveland has some major internet/communications issues when the time comes to send the pick into Goodell. Which would put the Jets in a position to jump them.

It's happened a couple of times before where teams couldn't get their pick in time. Once with the Minnesota Vikings (I forgot when) and another time in the 15th round of my 2016 Fantasy Football Draft.

[choon328]

11 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

"At all costs." That's the issue. No half-decent GM is going to grab a back-up at the top of the draft when they have holes at starter all over the place. Gettleman sucks, but he has brought in Fleming and is tied to Solder for two years. How are they going to address their defense, which is one of the worst in the league?

Fleming has never been a starter in NE or Dallas. Fleming can also move to Guard, he has some experience there.

[SR24]

49 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

lots of noise about Atlanta trading into either 10 or 11 for Kinlaw.

I really don’t know why we would trade down when our glaring needs are OT and WR one of which is almost guaranteed to be there at 11! We’ve got no business passing on any of the 3 WRs or 1 of the 4 OTs. Hopefully they trade down with ARI/Cle/JAX or someone else ahead of us 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, choon328 said:

Fleming has never been a starter in NE or Dallas. Fleming can also move to Guard, he has some experience there.

He started 26 games in his four year career, mostly at tackle. He played in 14 games each in the last two seasons as a Cowboy.

[slimjasi]

10 hours ago, nycdan said:

when you're top-5 and you need a QB, you draft a QB.  Even if it's a bit of a reach. 

I couldn’t disagree more. You don’t take a QB in the top 5 unless you have real conviction that you are picking the right guy, because when you take a QB that high, everything your franchise does over the next 3ish seasons is going to be geared towards giving him every possible chance to succeed.  If you have the wrong guy, you are wasting several seasons  and you are probably going to get fired before you have a chance to find the next QB

[Wonderboy]

12 hours ago, PepPep said:

I dunno. The latest I've been hearing is that Tua's ahead of schedule with his rehab. There is no way Dolphins pass on their QB at 5 (Tua or Herbert) assuming he will be there at 18 or that they will be able to move up later on to nab him. You just can't do that.  You don't draft an OT to protect your young QB before you actually have your young QB. 

As much as you can can guarantee something you can't possibly know I think you can guarantee the following non-OTs go top 10 one way or another: Burrow, Tua, Herbert,  Simmons, Okudah, Young, Brown. Thats just my opinion.

I think its very much likely that the rest are OTs. There's a slight chance that one of the top WRs goes. Guys like Chaisson, Kinlaw and CJ Henderson are also wildcards, you never know, crazier things have happened. 

But overall, odds are at least one of the top 4 OTs will be there for the Jets. If he isn't, odds are the Jets should have their pick of the litter at WR AND/OR a team offering up to trade up for said WR or next best available prospect.  

QB's are always reached for.  Even Love is a possibility.  Burrow (Bengals)     Young (Redskins)    Wirfs (Giants)      Tua (Fins)    Herbert (Chargers)     Simmons (Panthers)     Brown (Cards)     Kinlaw (Jags)     Becton (Browns)    Thomas*/Wills (Jets)

[Wonderboy]

44 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I couldn’t disagree more. You don’t take a QB in the top 5 unless you have real conviction that you are picking the right guy, because when you take a QB that high, everything your franchise does over the next 3ish seasons is going to be geared towards giving him every possible chance to succeed.  If you have the wrong guy, you are wasting several seasons  and you are probably going to get fired before you have a chance to find the next QB

See Macc

[Big_Slick]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

I couldn’t disagree more. You don’t take a QB in the top 5 unless you have real conviction that you are picking the right guy, because when you take a QB that high, everything your franchise does over the next 3ish seasons is going to be geared towards giving him every possible chance to succeed.  If you have the wrong guy, you are wasting several seasons  and you are probably going to get fired before you have a chance to find the next QB

The flip side to that is teams never know when they'll be picking at the top of the draft. So teams might be more likely to make a bit of a reach to grab the most important position on the team.

I do agree that if the team has serious doubts about the available QB's then they either trade down (always sounds easy but never is) or they make the safe pick and take the BPA at edge, LT or CB.

I see Miami taking Herbert and Gettleman takes Simmons. I will call this draft a success if we get one of the top four LT's and a WR in the 2nd. Double dip at OL or WR or both with our two 3rd rounders.

[choon328]

12 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

He started 26 games in his four year career, mostly at tackle. He played in 14 games each in the last two seasons as a Cowboy.

He's been in the league for 6 years not 4. He's started 26 games out of a possible 76. It's disingenuous to say he's "played in 14 games" in each of the last 2 years. For example in 2019 he started 3 games,  played in 6 others.  In the other 6 games he played a combined 30 snaps, probably special teams.  He's not a starting tackle,  he's a career backup. He's Def not someone that would make you pass on the best tackle prospect in the draft for. 

[Dinamite]

There's always the possibility that someone like the bucs trades up to take a tackle.  So even if jags or Cardinals don't go OT, they could trade with someone that wants to jump browns/Jets for OT.

[Bowles Movement]

2 hours ago, choon328 said:

He's been in the league for 6 years not 4. He's started 26 games out of a possible 76. It's disingenuous to say he's "played in 14 games" in each of the last 2 years. For example in 2019 he started 3 games,  played in 6 others.  In the other 6 games he played a combined 30 snaps, probably special teams.  He's not a starting tackle,  he's a career backup. He's Def not someone that would make you pass on the best tackle prospect in the draft for. 

The key is not how much he played but how much he was paid.   If he got a starters contract, like Fant, it’s unlikely he starts on the bench.

[Jetster]

Solder cost 13 million dollars. Giants SUCK on defense (just imagine Sam & our Oline tore them up), they go defense.

[DetroitRed]

The key is the Dolphins IMO. There is so much smoke about Tua dropping I think the Dolphins take a tackle and I believe all 4 will then be gone by the Jets pick. The Dolphins have pick 18 and 26 to address QB if they choose to. 
Giants #4 (Protect a young QB), Dolphins #5 (Protect a young QB), Chargers #6, Cardinals #8 (Protect a young QB) , Jaguars #9 (Protect a young QB)  and Browns #10 (Protect a young QB) are all real threats to take a tackle. I think all 4 will be off the board by 11.

It’s not just Tua. They are rumored with other QBs. If they don’t take a QB, they could have an issue for years to come


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[choon328]

11 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

It’s not just Tua. They are rumored with other QBs. If they don’t take a QB, they could have an issue for years to come


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If I'm the Dolphins I stay away from the QBs in the draft and bring in Winston to start. Use all of their draft picks to make their team better around him.