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The Illusion of the NFL Draft and the problem of trying to grade the top 4 offensive tackles


Alka

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I have been a Jets fan for over 50 years now, and have memories of many drafts over the years, back when the draft was 15 rounds.  If I remember correctly, 15 rounds were accomplished in one  (1) day.

Now, the draft is 7 rounds and 3 days, and has become a major event in and of itself.

Probably the 4 best Jets in history are: Joe Namath (1sr round pick), Joe Klecko (6th round pick), Derrelle Revis (#16 in the first round I think), and Don Maynard (we got him from another team).

We get so excited about the "can't miss" players, and try to decipher who is the best player for our team, and who will be a bust, who will be a star, etc..

The fact is that with the exception of a few players, the entire draft is a crapshoot, and only a select few people are worth anything as handicappers.

Which means that no matter how excited you are about who the Jets get, it means nothing until they can prove it on the field in the NFL.

Leonard Williams was supposedly the best player in the draft, and he is a middle of the pack player.  Derrelle Revis might be the best player the Jets have ever had, and he was available in the middle of the first round.  Tom Brady is the best QB in the history of the NFL, and he was available in round 6.  Nick Mangold was #30 in the first round, the best center the Jets have ever had.

The 4 can't miss offensive tackles in this years draft are all potential misses, and the fact is that no one really knows if any of these guys will be really good or not.  

I guess my point is that whoever is available at #11 might turn out to be the best of the 4 or the worst of the 4 top tackles.  Or maybe the 5th or 6th best tackle will turn out to be the best.

I think what I'm trying to say is that I don't care which offensive tackle is available when we pick at #11.  I think we just need to pick who we think is the best player and hope they translate to the NFl.

Stop killing yourselves trying to handicap who the best is, because the chance is you're probably wrong.  And if your right, then you're just lucky and didn't know anything to begin with.

 

 

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I think there's a lot of truth to what Alka is saying.

But you throw in a Covid-19 quarantine situation, combined with a fanbase that's vocally critical (and certainly rightfully so, given our organization's history), and you get the board as it is right now. 

I think @Jetsfan80 makes a good point about Ozzie too. There is an art to drafting - perhaps not a science. Some people are just more competent than others, even if the whole evaluation process is subjective. 

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is what Macc did to Jets fans.  Convinced them that no one knows anything and the draft is nothing but pure luck.

Explain Ozzie Newsome's career to me if it all comes down to luck.  I'll wait.

To me the draft is a complete team effort, or at least it should be. Scouts, coaches and GM ALL have to have input and come to a agreement on who's your top 300+  draftees.  There is some "luck" involved since so many of these "can't miss" prospects do indeed miss. Kids have got to have "the hunger" and the drive. That needs to be weighed in when completing your list. I'm so optimistic about JD and his staff heading into the draft. Can't wait.

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44 minutes ago, Alka said:

I have been a Jets fan for over 50 years now, and have memories of many drafts over the years, back when the draft was 15 rounds.  If I remember correctly, 15 rounds were accomplished in one  (1) day.

Now, the draft is 7 rounds and 3 days, and has become a major event in and of itself.

Probably the 4 best Jets in history are: Joe Namath (1sr round pick), Joe Klecko (6th round pick), Derrelle Revis (#16 in the first round I think), and Don Maynard (we got him from another team).

We get so excited about the "can't miss" players, and try to decipher who is the best player for our team, and who will be a bust, who will be a star, etc..

The fact is that with the exception of a few players, the entire draft is a crapshoot, and only a select few people are worth anything as handicappers.

Which means that no matter how excited you are about who the Jets get, it means nothing until they can prove it on the field in the NFL.

Leonard Williams was supposedly the best player in the draft, and he is a middle of the pack player.  Derrelle Revis might be the best player the Jets have ever had, and he was available in the middle of the first round.  Tom Brady is the best QB in the history of the NFL, and he was available in round 6.  Nick Mangold was #30 in the first round, the best center the Jets have ever had.

The 4 can't miss offensive tackles in this years draft are all potential misses, and the fact is that no one really knows if any of these guys will be really good or not.  

I guess my point is that whoever is available at #11 might turn out to be the best of the 4 or the worst of the 4 top tackles.  Or maybe the 5th or 6th best tackle will turn out to be the best.

I think what I'm trying to say is that I don't care which offensive tackle is available when we pick at #11.  I think we just need to pick who we think is the best player and hope they translate to the NFl.

Stop killing yourselves trying to handicap who the best is, because the chance is you're probably wrong.  And if your right, then you're just lucky and didn't know anything to begin with.

 

 

I disagree with the last statement, because if you are serious then mcganan and idzik were just unlucky.

If you look at the history of the discussion from previous drafts this forum has been right much more often than the jets front office.

No, I'll just go right on making my judgments, will crow about the ones I get right and will eat the ones I get wrong

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1 hour ago, Alka said:

I have been a Jets fan for over 50 years now, and have memories of many drafts over the years, back when the draft was 15 rounds.  If I remember correctly, 15 rounds were accomplished in one  (1) day.

Now, the draft is 7 rounds and 3 days, and has become a major event in and of itself.

Probably the 4 best Jets in history are: Joe Namath (1sr round pick), Joe Klecko (6th round pick), Derrelle Revis (#16 in the first round I think), and Don Maynard (we got him from another team).

We get so excited about the "can't miss" players, and try to decipher who is the best player for our team, and who will be a bust, who will be a star, etc..

The fact is that with the exception of a few players, the entire draft is a crapshoot, and only a select few people are worth anything as handicappers.

Which means that no matter how excited you are about who the Jets get, it means nothing until they can prove it on the field in the NFL.

Leonard Williams was supposedly the best player in the draft, and he is a middle of the pack player.  Derrelle Revis might be the best player the Jets have ever had, and he was available in the middle of the first round.  Tom Brady is the best QB in the history of the NFL, and he was available in round 6.  Nick Mangold was #30 in the first round, the best center the Jets have ever had.

The 4 can't miss offensive tackles in this years draft are all potential misses, and the fact is that no one really knows if any of these guys will be really good or not.  

I guess my point is that whoever is available at #11 might turn out to be the best of the 4 or the worst of the 4 top tackles.  Or maybe the 5th or 6th best tackle will turn out to be the best.

I think what I'm trying to say is that I don't care which offensive tackle is available when we pick at #11.  I think we just need to pick who we think is the best player and hope they translate to the NFl.

Stop killing yourselves trying to handicap who the best is, because the chance is you're probably wrong.  And if your right, then you're just lucky and didn't know anything to begin with.

 

 

Mawae > Mangold but would take either now. 

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1 hour ago, Alka said:

I have been a Jets fan for over 50 years now, and have memories of many drafts over the years, back when the draft was 15 rounds.  If I remember correctly, 15 rounds were accomplished in one  (1) day.

Now, the draft is 7 rounds and 3 days, and has become a major event in and of itself.

Probably the 4 best Jets in history are: Joe Namath (1sr round pick), Joe Klecko (6th round pick), Derrelle Revis (#16 in the first round I think), and Don Maynard (we got him from another team).

We get so excited about the "can't miss" players, and try to decipher who is the best player for our team, and who will be a bust, who will be a star, etc..

The fact is that with the exception of a few players, the entire draft is a crapshoot, and only a select few people are worth anything as handicappers.

Which means that no matter how excited you are about who the Jets get, it means nothing until they can prove it on the field in the NFL.

Leonard Williams was supposedly the best player in the draft, and he is a middle of the pack player.  Derrelle Revis might be the best player the Jets have ever had, and he was available in the middle of the first round.  Tom Brady is the best QB in the history of the NFL, and he was available in round 6.  Nick Mangold was #30 in the first round, the best center the Jets have ever had.

The 4 can't miss offensive tackles in this years draft are all potential misses, and the fact is that no one really knows if any of these guys will be really good or not.  

I guess my point is that whoever is available at #11 might turn out to be the best of the 4 or the worst of the 4 top tackles.  Or maybe the 5th or 6th best tackle will turn out to be the best.

I think what I'm trying to say is that I don't care which offensive tackle is available when we pick at #11.  I think we just need to pick who we think is the best player and hope they translate to the NFl.

Stop killing yourselves trying to handicap who the best is, because the chance is you're probably wrong.  And if your right, then you're just lucky and didn't know anything to begin with.

 

 

Then just put 350 names in a big bowl and stick your hand in there and pick one out.  We've had bad picks. No doubt. Brady instead of Sapp. O'brien instead of Marino. Etc etc etc. But we've also had some good ones. Freeman McNeil, Wesley Walker, Marty Lyons, Bob Crable etc etc etc. Its not so much the players as it has been the GM's making those picks.  JD already has been the most competent GM this organization has had since Parcells.  

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1 hour ago, JetFan20 said:

The draft is an inexact science, but overall the league is pretty good at it.

Numbers show the majority of top players are picked in the first round followed by second round followed by third round and so on.

 

This. It's not a crapshoot, no matter how many are in love with this overused cliché. If it was a crapshoot, then every team that didn't trade down at every opportunity, to load up on 15-20 mid/late round picks every year, would be exhibiting foolish judgment. 

Even accounting for busts & injuries, the success rate at the top of round 1 is higher than the bottom; round 1 has a higher success rate than round 2; round 2 higher than round 3; and so on. While high pick busts are magnified by fans & media, no one considers a 6th round whiff to be a bust, precisely because the success rate is so much lower; so they get overlooked every year even though it happens to most 6th round picks.

What's more, just by the numbers there are 10-30% fewer 1st or 2nd round picks than there are in individual rounds 3 through 7 every year because there are no 1st & 2nd round compensatory picks. Imagine a batter getting 10-30% more at-bats to get more hits every year - even if those were lower-percentage at-bats against a fresh, rocket-armed closer - but not counting those extra at-bats when calculating his batting average. 

The exceptions like Brady do not disprove the rule. A low success rate in lower rounds isn't a 0% success rate, so pointing out one of the outliers doesn't therefore prove that entering the draft 6th round picks are nearly as likely to succeed as 1st round picks. 

"Success" is definitely subjective, but this is measured equally whether no matter what round the player was drafted. It's obvious that higher picks - particularly those drafted in the top 20 of the first round, with fully guaranteed contracts - get more opportunities than late round picks, but part of that reason is also simply those players are more often more polished or more innately talented in general. Even factoring in such variables, the success rate drops with each draft round.

Inexact science (as you put it)? Absolutely.

A crapshoot? Absolutely not. 

 

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5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This. It's not a crapshoot, no matter how many are in love with this overused cliché. If it was a crapshoot, then every team that didn't trade down at every opportunity, to load up on 15-20 mid/late round picks every year, would be exhibiting foolish judgment. 

Even accounting for busts & injuries, the success rate at the top of round 1 is higher than the bottom; round 1 has a higher success rate than round 2; round 2 higher than round 3; and so on. While high pick busts are magnified by fans & media, no one considers a 6th round whiff to be a bust, precisely because the success rate is so much lower; so they get overlooked every year even though it happens to most 6th round picks.

What's more, just by the numbers there are 10-30% fewer 1st or 2nd round picks than there are in individual rounds 3 through 7 every year because there are no 1st & 2nd round compensatory picks. Imagine a batter getting 10-30% more at-bats to get more hits every year - even if those were lower-percentage at-bats against a fresh, rocket-armed closer - but not counting those extra at-bats when calculating his batting average. 

The exceptions like Brady do not disprove the rule. A low success rate in lower rounds isn't a 0% success rate, so pointing out one of the outliers doesn't therefore prove that entering the draft 6th round picks are nearly as likely to succeed as 1st round picks. 

"Success" is definitely subjective, but this is measured equally whether no matter what round the player was drafted. It's obvious that higher picks - particularly those drafted in the top 20 of the first round, with fully guaranteed contracts - get more opportunities than late round picks, but part of that reason is also simply those players are more often more polished or more innately talented in general. Even factoring in such variables, the success rate drops with each draft round.

Inexact science (as you put it)? Absolutely.

A crapshoot? Absolutely not. 

 

Oh thank God. It's the "good" brother. 

@Defense Wins Championships

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7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is what Macc did to Jets fans.  Convinced them that no one knows anything and the draft is nothing but pure luck.

Explain Ozzie Newsome's career to me if it all comes down to luck.  I'll wait.

Ozzie’s been better than anyone else but...

1) He still missed on a lot just hit more than often

2) He’s also a bit of an outlier - there are a few guys that are good at this but most are - and we have NO IDEA what JD is capable of..

The draft is absolutely a crap shoot....

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8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is what Macc did to Jets fans.  Convinced them that no one knows anything and the draft is nothing but pure luck.

Explain Ozzie Newsome's career to me if it all comes down to luck.  I'll wait.

 

7 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I think there's a lot of truth to what Alka is saying.

But you throw in a Covid-19 quarantine situation, combined with a fanbase that's vocally critical (and certainly rightfully so, given our organization's history), and you get the board as it is right now. 

I think @Jetsfan80 makes a good point about Ozzie too. There is an art to drafting - perhaps not a science. Some people are just more competent than others, even if the whole evaluation process is subjective. 

The more drafts I see, the more I think having a set of balls is critical to be a good GM. You can't worry about what the media will say if you "reach" for a guy or if you pass on a "better player" because you feel good about another. Any donkey can draft the next available guy on Kiper's Big Board and call it a day. The great ones also trust their and their team's opinion when it deviates from "consensus." Of course, they also have good instincts and confidence in those instincts.

In summary a good GM needs: 

1. Balls to buck consensus and endure criticism from the talking heads

2. Good instincts to find value outside of consensus

3. Confidence in those instincts

Pretty obvious why Macc failed. He drafted to avoid criticism and not to lose, rather than drafting to win.

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22 minutes ago, jgb said:

 

 

The more drafts I see, the more I think having a set of balls is critical to be a good GM. You can't worry about what the media will say if you "reach" for a guy or if you pass on a "better player" because you feel good about another. Any donkey can draft the next available guy on Kiper's Big Board and call it a day. The great ones also trust their and their team's opinion when it deviates from "consensus." Of course, they also have good instincts and confidence in those instincts.

In summary a good GM needs: 

1. Balls to buck consensus and endure criticism from the talking heads

2. Good instincts to find value outside of consensus

3. Confidence in those instincts

Pretty obvious why Macc failed. He drafted to avoid criticism and not to lose, rather than drafting to win.

The one time he followed your number 1 necessity we ended up with Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round 

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7 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

The one time he followed your number 1 necessity we ended up with Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round 

Haha true, I was mostly talking about in the first round (where you should draft for upside, not lack of downside) but you make a good point!

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I have been a Jets fan for over 50 years now, and have memories of many drafts over the years, back when the draft was 15 rounds.  If I remember correctly, 15 rounds were accomplished in one  (1) day. Now, the draft is 7 rounds and 3 days, and has become a major event in and of itself.

Probably the 4 best Jets in history are: Joe Namath (1sr round pick), Joe Klecko (6th round pick), Derrelle Revis (#16 in the first round I think), and Don Maynard (we got him from another team).

We get so excited about the "can't miss" players, and try to decipher who is the best player for our team, and who will be a bust, who will be a star, etc..

The fact is that with the exception of a few players, the entire draft is a crapshoot, and only a select few people are worth anything as handicappers.

Which means that no matter how excited you are about who the Jets get, it means nothing until they can prove it on the field in the NFL.

Leonard Williams was supposedly the best player in the draft, and he is a middle of the pack player.  Derrelle Revis might be the best player the Jets have ever had, and he was available in the middle of the first round.  Tom Brady is the best QB in the history of the NFL, and he was available in round 6.  Nick Mangold was #30 in the first round, the best center the Jets have ever had.

The 4 can't miss offensive tackles in this years draft are all potential misses, and the fact is that no one really knows if any of these guys will be really good or not.  

I guess my point is that whoever is available at #11 might turn out to be the best of the 4 or the worst of the 4 top tackles.  Or maybe the 5th or 6th best tackle will turn out to be the best.

I think what I'm trying to say is that I don't care which offensive tackle is available when we pick at #11.  I think we just need to pick who we think is the best player and hope they translate to the NFl.

Stop killing yourselves trying to handicap who the best is, because the chance is you're probably wrong.  And if your right, then you're just lucky and didn't know anything to begin with.

 

 

 

Jamal says hi bro, klecko, gastineu, ... List goes on and on ... Keyshawn, Rob Moore, Marvin Jones, Jonathan Vilma , brick, Mangold, Freeman Macneil, Noodlearm

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

58 minutes ago, jgb said:

 

 

The more drafts I see, the more I think having a set of balls is critical to be a good GM. You can't worry about what the media will say if you "reach" for a guy or if you pass on a "better player" because you feel good about another. Any donkey can draft the next available guy on Kiper's Big Board and call it a day. The great ones also trust their and their team's opinion when it deviates from "consensus." Of course, they also have good instincts and confidence in those instincts.

In summary a good GM needs: 

1. Balls to buck consensus and endure criticism from the talking heads

2. Good instincts to find value outside of consensus

3. Confidence in those instincts

Pretty obvious why Macc failed. He drafted to avoid criticism and not to lose, rather than drafting to win.

I actually disagree with this.  I think one of Mac's many issues was trying to be "the smartest guy in the room" as opposed to just taking the best player (and I dont just mean BPA).

An example of this is Dylan Donahue - the guy had virtually no traits that would translate to the NFL but he wanted to find the diamond in the rough rather then simply find a role player in the middle rounds who can help the team at some point.  

Mac's other issue was not having a philosophy.  One year he takes "hard working" guys with limited skills (Adarius Stewart, Donahue)  and then the next year takes low character guys with elite skills like Polite - so which is it?  What type of player do you want on your team?

JD hopefully will build our OL and DL, take tough, hard working players, stick to a system and actually build a program here not just throw darts at a board every draft year

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7 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Then just put 350 names in a big bowl and stick your hand in there and pick one out.  We've had bad picks. No doubt. Brady instead of Sapp. O'brien instead of Marino. Etc etc etc. But we've also had some good ones. Freeman McNeil, Wesley Walker, Marty Lyons, Bob Crable etc etc etc. Its not so much the players as it has been the GM's making those picks.  JD already has been the most competent GM this organization has had since Parcells.  

I think the point a lot of people who are responding to my thread are missing is that I am not saying that the first player picked in the first round may be just as good or just as bad as the last player picked in the 7th round.  The point that I am trying to make is that if you have 4 or 5 players who match up in ability and measurable to some degree, and you try to handicap those 5 players as to who is the best to who is #5 of that group, then it might as well be a guess.  It seems to me that the top 4 or 5 offensive tackles all fall into that category.  This is the crapshoot I am referring to.

Picking Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning.  Peyton went #1 and Ryan Leaf went #2 in the draft.  Many people at the time didn't know who was better, but they both went top 2 in the draft.  That was the ultimate crapshoot.  When Sam Darnold was selected by the Jets, and 3 other quarterbacks were in the tip 4, tell me that that did not turn out to be a crapshoot?  The best of the 4 is Lamar Jackson, at least thus far.

When you put a group of like quality players in a draft, picking the correct one turns out to be a crapshoot, and that is just the fact.

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36 minutes ago, jgb said:

Haha true, I was mostly talking about in the first round (where you should draft for upside, not lack of downside) but you make a good point!

I agree with you. Was just pointing that out.I’ve said it numerous times on this board but, IMO Mac is the worst NY Jet employee ever that being said I don’t fault him for making the hackenberg pick. I agree with you **** all the naysayers go with your gut. I fault him for actually how wrong he got that pick. I mean how bad of a scout do you have to be to completely miss on that evaluation 

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10 minutes ago, BCJet said:

 

I actually disagree with this.  I think one of Mac's many issues was trying to be "the smartest guy in the room" as opposed to just taking the best player (and I dont just mean BPA).

An example of this is Dylan Donahue - the guy had virtually no traits that would translate to the NFL but he wanted to find the diamond in the rough rather then simply find a role player in the middle rounds who can help the team at some point.  

Mac's other issue was not having a philosophy.  One year he takes "hard working" guys with limited skills (Adarius Stewart, Donahue)  and then the next year takes low character guys with elite skills like Polite - so which is it?  What type of player do you want on your team?

JD hopefully will build our OL and DL, take tough, hard working players, stick to a system and actually build a program here not just throw darts at a board every draft year

Macc was also two GMs in one. In the first, he couldn't resist "consensus BAP" and in the later rounds, he did try to be the smartest. Problem is, if you want to try to be the smartest, you need to be actually smart!

1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

I agree with you. Was just pointing that out.I’ve said it numerous times on this board but, IMO Mac is the worst NY Jet employee ever that being said I don’t fault him for making the hackenberg pick. I agree with you **** all the naysayers go with your gut. I fault him for actually how wrong he got that pick. I mean how bad of a scout do you have to be to completely miss on that evaluation 

The worst part of the Hack pick was that Bill O'Brien trading ahead of the Jets to take not-Hackenberg somehow spooked him that Hackenberg would be drafted by someone soon.

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2 minutes ago, Alka said:

I think the point a lot of people who are responding to my thread are missing is that I am not saying that the first player picked in the first round may be just as good or just as bad as the last player picked in the 7th round.  The point that I am trying to make is that if you have 4 or 5 players who match up in ability and measurable to some degree, and you try to handicap those 5 players as to who is the best to who is #5 of that group, then it might as well be a guess.  It seems to me that the top 4 or 5 offensive tackles all fall into that category.  This is the crapshoot I am referring to.

Picking Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning.  Peyton went #1 and Ryan Leaf went #2 in the draft.  Many people at the time didn't know who was better, but they both went top 2 in the draft.  That was the ultimate crapshoot.  When Sam Darnold was selected by the Jets, and 3 other quarterbacks were in the tip 4, tell me that that did not turn out to be a crapshoot?  The best of the 4 is Lamar Jackson, at least thus far.

When you put a group of like quality players in a draft, picking the correct one turns out to be a crapshoot, and that is just the fact.

I would like to add another point to my rssponse above.  If a team builds a quality foundation of a team in prior years, then that team can be better equipped to pick the "best available player" in that draft, rather than go for need.  When you are a lousy team with lousy draft picks in prior years, then you are stuck in a continuous cycle of always going for need year after year, trading up in rounds and giving away draft picks in order to get the player you need, instead of getting the player who you have scouted who is the best player on your entire board.

The Jets are that team right now, and the Patriots are the anti- Jets in that regard, at least in recent history.

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9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is what Macc did to Jets fans.  Convinced them that no one knows anything and the draft is nothing but pure luck.

Explain Ozzie Newsome's career to me if it all comes down to luck.  I'll wait.

Have very good Coaching, and it doesn’t hurt to have the NFL’s best on field coach, and motivator playing for your team for 15+ years, Ray Lewis basically took any defensive talent he deemed worthy, and straightened their ass out to get the very best from them well, and Ed Reed.

  Now name the offensive studs Ozzie drafted at the skill positions?

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9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is what Macc did to Jets fans.  Convinced them that no one knows anything and the draft is nothing but pure luck.

Explain Ozzie Newsome's career to me if it all comes down to luck.  I'll wait.

i don't think alka is saying that at all.  i think his point is we are being fed kool aid about all of these players and sometimes these "top" guys just don't work out.  look at guys like gholston or manderich or cadegan or even leo.  what mac did was pay too much attention to the morons like macshay or kiper and not scout the actual players as well as he should.  imo he was too concerned about finding the diamond in the rough or the guys who coulda/woulda/shoulda been first rounders if not for injuries or other issues.  he needed to be looking for football players.

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9 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I think there's a lot of truth to what Alka is saying.

But you throw in a Covid-19 quarantine situation, combined with a fanbase that's vocally critical (and certainly rightfully so, given our organization's history), and you get the board as it is right now. 

I think @Jetsfan80 makes a good point about Ozzie too. There is an art to drafting - perhaps not a science. Some people are just more competent than others, even if the whole evaluation process is subjective. 

Agreed. Re drafting, it's not just competence in assessing talent. It's about being respected by other GM's, having good relationships in the league, knowing how to negotiate trades, knowing how to assess the value of a trade, determining fair worth, collaborating with your coaches, well... you get the picture. I could keep going. It's a sophisticated job. Mac was like a mediocre golfer. He could occasionally drive the ball down the fairway, but his short game was erratic and his putting was terrible. You have to be capable across multiple fronts to succeed as a GM.

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The draft is not a crapshoot.  It is an educated guess. 

There are never any guarantees in the draft.  It is hard to project how 21 year old kids will be able to compete at the next level.  Teams that have better GMs, scouting staffs, analytics departments, etc are better educated make better guesses.  Every GM will hit on some picks.  Every GM will whiff on some picks.  That is the nature of the draft.  Better GMs have a better hit ratio. 

 

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On the one end of the spectrum is "totally scientific" and on the other lies "total crap shoot" or some such.  Neither is true.

What you have at some level is a game of probability like rolling a 7 in Craps is six times more likely than rolling a 12.  Same idea with the draft.  Consensus first round picks have longer and more impactful careers (on the whole) than do 2nd round picks and so on.  None of which tells a GM which player to take in the first.

If there were no difference between first rounders and everyone else then every GM in the sport would not treat them like gold dust.

The bottom line is this.  Some GMs simply draft better than others.  It is that simple.  If you are an owner, the trick is to get yourself one of the people who knows how to go about drafting well and then let then do their job.  Judge them over a 3-5 year span (at least) since it will take at least that for the laws of large numbers to assert themselves (unless you are terrible like some of our recent GMs in which case that becomes statistically clear right away).

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12 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

With all due respect to Nick Mangold, Kevin Mawae was pretty good too. I wouldn't be so quick to say Mangold was better. Both were elite centers.

Nick was a great C.  I think both Mawae and Fields were better than Nick.  And we've had other really good centers too.  That's why the last couple of years the Center position has been unusually bad for this franchise.  Until Mac ruined the legacy of the position for the Jets, C was always a bedrock for us.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Nick was a great C.  I think both Mawae and Fields were better than Nick.  And we've had other really good centers too.  That's why the last couple of years the Center position has been unusually bad for this franchise.  Until Mac ruined the legacy of the position for the Jets, C was always a bedrock for us.  

 

Agreed, and pretty much everything else, too.

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