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The Illusion of the NFL Draft and the problem of trying to grade the top 4 offensive tackles


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Of course there's uncertainty in the draft, but that's why you should focus on just one or two positions with the day one and two picks. He who drafts everything, drafts nothing.

This year, OL (especially OT) and WR. Take two of each in the first four picks. Double your chances of getting a day one starter at each position. Those are both huge needs and areas with good talent depth in those rounds.

Starting in round four, sure, take flyers at CB, edge, RB, K, whatever, maybe even another OL.

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5 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Ozzie’s been better than anyone else but...

1) He still missed on a lot just hit more than often

2) He’s also a bit of an outlier - there are a few guys that are good at this but most are - and we have NO IDEA what JD is capable of..

The draft is absolutely a crap shoot....


Read Sperm's post then get back to me.  And Ozzie certainly isn't the only successful drafting GM over a long period of time.  He's just the best example based on longevity.  

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IMHO the key to the Draft is simply human nature.  If you can avoid panicking, if you have a plan that you stick to, and if you don't reach then your team will be on the clock looking at a great group of players.  Then you just have to have the courage to take the guy your planning told you to take.

If you have good scouting and research, if you get a consensus on a player from like 5 experts in your organization (remember we not only have Joe Douglas and area scouts, but also guys like Phil Savage, Chad Alexander and Rex Hogan), then it simply comes down to trusting your process, not reaching for need and executing the pick.  Teams overthink it sometimes.  Don't.

I think we have the best "brain trust" in the FO that we've had in years!


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12 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I disagree with the last statement, because if you are serious then mcganan and idzik were just unlucky.

If you look at the history of the discussion from previous drafts this forum has been right much more often than the jets front office.

No, I'll just go right on making my judgments, will crow about the ones I get right and will eat the ones I get wrong

Besides, what else am I going to do but judge.  I am bored to DEATH!  I have been in NC since March 17, and don’t know when I will be back to my apartment in Manhattan!!  

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3 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Have very good Coaching, and it doesn’t hurt to have the NFL’s best on field coach, and motivator playing for your team for 15+ years, Ray Lewis basically took any defensive talent he deemed worthy, and straightened their ass out to get the very best from them well, and Ed Reed.

  Now name the offensive studs Ozzie drafted at the skill positions?

What would that prove?  That you can win titles by prioritizing Offensive Line and just plugging in cheap/mid-round RBs?

Lamar Jackson was a pretty good pick.  He got a SB ring out of a glorious postseason from Joe Flacco.  Ray Rice was a good pick until he started hitting women.  Torrey Smith late in the 2nd round was nice.   Darren Waller and Tyrod Taylor in the 6th round were good picks, too.  Marquise Brown's career is off to a good start.

When you're constantly picking in the back end of each round due to your team's success, you have to get creative.  Ozzie has at every turn.  

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1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Nick was a great C.  I think both Mawae and Fields were better than Nick.  And we've had other really good centers too.  That's why the last couple of years the Center position has been unusually bad for this franchise.  Until Mac ruined the legacy of the position for the Jets, C was always a bedrock for us.  


Right. Joe Fields was a stud. Jim Sweeney wasn't too shabby either after he was moved from G to C.  It's one of those things with the Jets. We have had a group of above average to dominant C's throughout our history.  Mawae is the best of them imo but Mangold was an awesome asset himself. I'm hoping he m makes it into the HOF but who knows. He seems to be universally liked and respected so it's possible. 

It's been strange for us to have C become such a major concern lately. It will be nice to get someone who can sure up our OL for the next 5-10 years. I think it's very possible to come from this draft. If not, McGovern is a stud in his own right. 

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It's not a crapshoot.  In more recent drafts organizations are beginning to look at the bigger picture when it comes to picking players the same way (actually more intense) they would with any potential hiring candidate. 

It was either an NFL Films producer or 30 for 30 producer that said that if you look at all the interviews of the successful and unsuccessful people they interviewed there is a common theme.  Those that were successful focus on external reasons for their success: the city, their friends, teammates, coaches, family members, etc.  For their failures they looked within and blamed themselves.  Likewise, for those that were somewhat unsuccessful (what we call "busts") blamed others for their failures and the reason for their success was themselves.

What organizations are realizing is that the success of a player is not only dependent on their athletic ability or skills on the field.  Their success is actually rooted in their character, their environment and their motivation.  Its hard for fans as we do not get to see all the behind the scenes activities these teams go through when vetting out these players.  On the Move the Sticks podcast Jeremiah talks about how scouts do more than 50 interviews with a players' friends, family, classmates, teachers, pastors, high school coaches, opposing coaches, opposing players, the classmate that lived down the hall in their dorm, anybody and everybody they can to get a better understanding of the prospect.  These players are early twenty year olds that are fulfilling a dream of theirs, getting a huge check deposited into their account before they even play an actual game.  Thats a lot of pressure on someone that young to perform and succeed.  As much as possible, these teams want to know how these players are going to react, not only this year but 4 to 5 years down the line.  Are these players going to get along with their teammates, coaches, the front office, how will they do in the city they reside in?  Some of these players may be playing their first ever home game in a state they were not born in.  Some grew up on a farm where the nearest neighbor is miles away but now live in a building where a single wall separates them from their neighbor.  In other occupations, people interview for a job or several jobs and get to choose whether or not they take the job depending on their preferences.  In the NFL, if you get drafted, you don't get that choice.  That is why some players prefer not to get drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds but rather sign as an UDFA because they get to choose where they go.  These organizations want to know if these players are motivated to become great football players or collect a paycheck?  Are they spending the offseason working out or spending all their money?  When they run into a slump or bad times do they turn to friends and family or do they hold it in and isolate themselves?  There is a whole other side to the evaluation of players that is starting to become more and more apparent to sports organizations.  

When you find players that possess the talent and fit with the culture of the organization, you get highly successful players.  Too many people, fans, the media, teams and talent evaluators alike, overlook this aspect too often.  Its like any job, if you enjoy the people you work with you are motivated to keep doing it and do well it.  If you don't get along with your co-workers, bosses, the company in general, your performance suffers, you dread going into work and may end up moving on.

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