Darnold Floor/Ceiling

[jgb]

The greatest crime of the Macc era/error is that after two years, there seems to still be a very wide range of opinions as to what Darnold is/what he can be. We all agree the Jets have put him in a terrible situation. Thought it would be interesting to see where Jets fans place his ultimate floor/ceiling.

I'm not suggesting that all these QBs are similar to Darnold. The question: which QB's production/reputation (e.g., "average," "good," "elite") best represents your floor/ceiling for Darnold?

[Jets723]

I don’t really look at comparisons to other QBs.  I’ve always liked Darnolds ability to extend plays.  Like you said it’s impossible to make a fair judgment in him yet because he has had zero help/protection 

[GreenReaper]

I think the QB he's gonna best resemble is the face he sees in the mirror.

[Jetsfan80]

His upside is not on the list:  Brett Favre.  

His floor is Andy Dalton.  

[Rhg1084]

The kid is a beast. Only 22 years old playing with a bunch of scrubs he has made some unbelievable throws/plays. Yes he makes dumb mistakes also. There’s no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now he’s a top 4 QB in the league 

[Jetlife33]

I've said from the beginning he has the potential to be a mix of Romo and Favre. I think his floor is someone like Palmer. 

[Dcat]

Add Favre to ceiling, because that's my vote on that one.

[TuscanyTile2]

26 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

The kid is a beast. Only 22 years old playing with a bunch of scrubs he has made some unbelievable throws/plays. Yes he makes dumb mistakes also. There’s no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now he’s a top 4 QB in the league 

Thanks!  Are you a Buffalo Bills fan btw?  (I feel like you are). 

[The Crimson King]

The guy has to show that he can connect long passes on a line with less height than he has been throwing them with the receiver in stride (the difference between TD's and 20-30 yd plays) to reach any of the ceilings offered. In all fairness though, he hasn't often had a) the time to do so, b) WR other than Anderson who could separate and c) had many of such plays called (often going several games between them). He also needs to show that he can stay on the field for every game many years in a row. 

It will be interesting to see this list a few years from now. It would be nice to see the ceiling list as the floor.

 

 

[Rhg1084]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Thanks!  Are you a Buffalo Bills fan btw?  (I feel like you are). 

Lol what? No I’m a jets season ticket holder 

[Irish Jet]

Fitzpatrick-Romo. Hopefully the latter being without the perennial choking. 

He's reminded me a lot of Romo is his good games. Romo was less hesitant to use his legs. He has a long way to go to get there though.

People saying Rodgers are seeing something I'm not. His peak was probably the best QB I've ever seen. 

[Jet Nut]

How many different ways can we question someone who hasn’t played two seasons, one while ill, without any talent to help him and is still 22.

How can anyone tell anything beyond he has all the physical tools

 

[Lot K Tailgaters]

He has a ton of potential and has shown flashes.  We have given him a terrible OL and mediocre WRs.  I’m hoping we can help in both of those areas for him.  

[14 in Green]

Sanchez as a floor, Romo as the ceiling.

You didn't ask where he'll eventually be though. My guess is Andy Dalton. Nice 10+ year career, Not quite top 10, but close. Somewhere in the 11-15 range.

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, 14 in Green said:

Sanchez as a floor, Romo as the ceiling.

You didn't ask where he'll eventually be though. My guess is Andy Dalton. Nice 10+ year career, Not quite top 10, but close. Somewhere in the 11-15 range.

Your boy Baker’s floor is Sanchez

[Philc1]

30 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Add Favre to ceiling, because that's my vote on that one.

Floor is Jameis Winston.  Ceiling is Roethlisberger 

[Grandy]

He's already better than Sanchez ever was. Look at numbers and film people.

His floor is Fitzpatrick, a guy who can make amazing things happen but brain farts just as often

His ceiling is a sort of Hybrid of Rivers, Rodgers, and Romo. He's already shown he can make plays that only a handful of QB's could hope to pull off, he just needs to be consistent to ascend to an elite level.

[Lith]

48 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

His floor is Andy Dalton.  

Data certainly suggests that is correct.  Darnold's numbers from last year compared wtih Dalton's career numbers.  Almost identical on a per game basis:

Per Game

 

				Passing							Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Att	Yds	TD
1	Andy Dalton	2011	2019	20.7	33.5	237.5	1.5	0.9	2.1	13.1	3.0	9.2	0.2
2	Sam Darnold	2019	2019	21.0	33.9	232.6	1.5	1.0	2.5	16.3	2.5	4.8	0.2

[CTJetsFan]

I messed up.

Voted Romo (floor)/Ryan (ceiling). Should have put Rodgers as ceiling

[Jets723]

9 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Floor is Jameis Winston.  Ceiling is Roethlisberger 

Yeah Big Ben is a good comparison minus the off the field issues 

[RutgersJetFan]

Floor: Fergie

Ceiling: Jesus

[CTM]

Havent we already seen his floor ?

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Lith said:

Data certainly suggests that is correct.  Darnold's numbers from last year compared wtih Dalton's career numbers.  Almost identical on a per game basis:

Per Game

 

				Passing							Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Att	Yds	TD
1	Andy Dalton	2011	2019	20.7	33.5	237.5	1.5	0.9	2.1	13.1	3.0	9.2	0.2
2	Sam Darnold	2019	2019	21.0	33.9	232.6	1.5	1.0	2.5	16.3	2.5	4.8	0.2

 

Yep.  And if that is indeed his floor it's not a bad start. 

If he doesn't prove to be much better than Dalton he isn't worthy of a 2nd contract, but there's a lot of outcomes where he is here long-term.

[TuscanyTile2]

34 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Lol what? No I’m a jets season ticket holder 

Whoops - sorry about that! 

I think there's a Bills fan on here who might have a similar type name. Or maybe I'm just imaging that.  lol

[Icer]

Dalton/Romo

Romo was under appreciated, so having him as the ceiling isn't a slight. Would be very happy if he turns out to be another Romo

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, Icer said:

Dalton/Romo

Romo was under appreciated, so having him as the ceiling isn't a slight. Would be very happy if he turns out to be another Romo

Yep.  Year in and year out Romo was a top 8-10 QB.  Very good but never great.  You can win a lot of games with "very good", and maybe even a Super Bowl.

[Jets723]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  Year in and year out Romo was a top 8-10 QB.  Very good but never great.  You can win a lot of games with "very good", and maybe even a Super Bowl.

Absolutely.  Honestly I don’t care if Sam even wins a MVP or is ever considered “elite”.  If he gets a Super Bowl then that’s all that matters.  Or even if we have a lot of successful playoff years With him I consider that a success.  

[Welp]

Fitzpatrick/Romo - Basically his floor is what it is right now where he gives you wow/wtf moments like Fitzpatrick and ceiling is Romo where he's a top 5 QB at his peak but will have his boneheaded moments that you scratch your head about.

[BigRy56]

His ceiling I’m no 100% sure about but his floor is Carson Palmer. No matter what, he’ll be a solid starting QB in this league for the next decade plus 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

His upside is not on the list:  Brett Favre.  

His floor is Andy Dalton.  

Good point re Favre.

[predator_05]

When i looked at his footage from USC, i figured he could be at least as good as Matt Ryan. Unquestionably a franchise QB. My opinion hasn't changed, but a ceiling is tough to predict.

Knowing how incompetent this team is, my fear wasn't so much a lack of talent on Darnold's side, but an incompetent backroom staff wasting his potential by giving him a weak support-cast. While we aren't anywhere near the worst case scenario, we've seen mixed signals. Darnold was running a make-shift offense, without any foundational pieces. He hasn't shown any noticeable improvement since he arrived, which is disappointing.

The Gase appointment was made in consideration of his record coaching good QBs. He certainly had an impressive resume. But i never liked Gase to begin with. He didn't impress me as Dolphins HC, and his actual connection with Peyton Manning might not have gone too far beyond getting Peyton a cup of coffee and OK-ing a handful of plays that Peyton would have run anyway. Not as much 'QB development', and more 'QB management'... at best. Same is true for Cutler, another NFL vet. Consistently sniffing the air around a QB's jock doesn't make you a QB whisperer - you can only sell the same snake oil so many times.

On the optimistic side, Darnold is [very] young, and you can always fire a place-holding head coach. At least they went through the more important organizational changes; by hiring a GM that ACTUALLY KNOWS how identify a good player. If Joe Douglas learned anything from Ozzie Newsome, Darnold's future could be bright. For the first time, the team has a competent scouting department - and when you're at rock-bottom, the only way to go is up. It starts with the 2020 draft class, which could easily provide the foundational pieces for an offense that'll help Darnold get closer to his potential.

However, for Darnold to hit his ceiling - which i put somewhere between a Carson Palmer (minus the injuries) and  'Philip Rivers' - the GM has to luck into a talented young play-caller, another Sean McVay. Imagine McVay with Darnold instead of Goff. Until the team finds a good coordinator, the team, along with Darnold, will continue to underachieve. And because good coordinators are rare, this is a vacuum that won't be filled anytime soon.

[14 in Green]

Just now, Philc1 said:

Your boy Baker’s floor is Sanchez

Going into this year, Baker has just as much to prove as Darnold.

Neither were good last year.

[jgb]

45 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Sanchez as a floor, Romo as the ceiling.

You didn't ask where he'll eventually be though. My guess is Andy Dalton. Nice 10+ year career, Not quite top 10, but close. Somewhere in the 11-15 range.

The premise of the thread (you can certainly challenge it) is that no one knows because the Jets haven't put him in a position to evaluate him in a conclusive way.

[JetFan20]

I put Mark Sanchez as the floor, but could easily have put Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston (guys who’ve had some success, but off the roster within five years of being drafted)

Ceiling is Philip Rivers (the best example of a guy with goofy mechanics having a ton of success in the NFL)

[14 in Green]

Just now, Philc1 said:

Floor is Jameis Winston.  Ceiling is Roethlisberger 

Good job. I like this one.

I'd be ecstatic if he turned out to be anywhere close to Rothlisberger. Not to be nit picky, but I just don't see the same toughness or arm strength with Sam. The Winston comp is excellent, again though, Darnold's deep ball and mechanics aren't as good. He has to stop with the back foot nonsense.