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Darnold Floor/Ceiling


Darnold's floor/ceiling  

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  1. 1. Darnold's FLOOR most closely resembles...

  2. 2. Darnold's CEILING most closely resembles...



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The greatest crime of the Macc era/error is that after two years, there seems to still be a very wide range of opinions as to what Darnold is/what he can be. We all agree the Jets have put him in a terrible situation. Thought it would be interesting to see where Jets fans place his ultimate floor/ceiling.

I'm not suggesting that all these QBs are similar to Darnold. The question: which QB's production/reputation (e.g., "average," "good," "elite") best represents your floor/ceiling for Darnold?

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The kid is a beast. Only 22 years old playing with a bunch of scrubs he has made some unbelievable throws/plays. Yes he makes dumb mistakes also. There’s no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now he’s

His upside is not on the list:  Brett Favre.   His floor is Andy Dalton.  

He's already better than Sanchez ever was. Look at numbers and film people. His floor is Fitzpatrick, a guy who can make amazing things happen but brain farts just as often His ceiling is a

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I don’t really look at comparisons to other QBs.  I’ve always liked Darnolds ability to extend plays.  Like you said it’s impossible to make a fair judgment in him yet because he has had zero help/protection 

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26 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

The kid is a beast. Only 22 years old playing with a bunch of scrubs he has made some unbelievable throws/plays. Yes he makes dumb mistakes also. There’s no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now he’s a top 4 QB in the league 

Thanks!  Are you a Buffalo Bills fan btw?  (I feel like you are). 

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The guy has to show that he can connect long passes on a line with less height than he has been throwing them with the receiver in stride (the difference between TD's and 20-30 yd plays) to reach any of the ceilings offered. In all fairness though, he hasn't often had a) the time to do so, b) WR other than Anderson who could separate and c) had many of such plays called (often going several games between them). He also needs to show that he can stay on the field for every game many years in a row. 

It will be interesting to see this list a few years from now. It would be nice to see the ceiling list as the floor.

 

 

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Fitzpatrick-Romo. Hopefully the latter being without the perennial choking. 

He's reminded me a lot of Romo is his good games. Romo was less hesitant to use his legs. He has a long way to go to get there though.

People saying Rodgers are seeing something I'm not. His peak was probably the best QB I've ever seen. 

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48 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

His floor is Andy Dalton.  

Data certainly suggests that is correct.  Darnold's numbers from last year compared wtih Dalton's career numbers.  Almost identical on a per game basis:

Per Game

 
  Passing Rushing
Rk Player From To Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Att Yds TD
1 Andy Dalton 2011 2019 20.7 33.5 237.5 1.5 0.9 2.1 13.1 3.0 9.2 0.2
2 Sam Darnold 2019 2019 21.0 33.9 232.6 1.5 1.0 2.5 16.3 2.5 4.8 0.2
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6 minutes ago, Lith said:

Data certainly suggests that is correct.  Darnold's numbers from last year compared wtih Dalton's career numbers.  Almost identical on a per game basis:

Per Game

 
  Passing Rushing
Rk Player From To Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Att Yds TD
1 Andy Dalton 2011 2019 20.7 33.5 237.5 1.5 0.9 2.1 13.1 3.0 9.2 0.2
2 Sam Darnold 2019 2019 21.0 33.9 232.6 1.5 1.0 2.5 16.3 2.5 4.8 0.2

 

Yep.  And if that is indeed his floor it's not a bad start. 

If he doesn't prove to be much better than Dalton he isn't worthy of a 2nd contract, but there's a lot of outcomes where he is here long-term.

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34 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Lol what? No I’m a jets season ticket holder 

Whoops - sorry about that!  :)

I think there's a Bills fan on here who might have a similar type name. Or maybe I'm just imaging that.  lol

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5 minutes ago, Icer said:

Dalton/Romo

Romo was under appreciated, so having him as the ceiling isn't a slight. Would be very happy if he turns out to be another Romo

Yep.  Year in and year out Romo was a top 8-10 QB.  Very good but never great.  You can win a lot of games with "very good", and maybe even a Super Bowl.

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  Year in and year out Romo was a top 8-10 QB.  Very good but never great.  You can win a lot of games with "very good", and maybe even a Super Bowl.

Absolutely.  Honestly I don’t care if Sam even wins a MVP or is ever considered “elite”.  If he gets a Super Bowl then that’s all that matters.  Or even if we have a lot of successful playoff years With him I consider that a success.  

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Fitzpatrick/Romo - Basically his floor is what it is right now where he gives you wow/wtf moments like Fitzpatrick and ceiling is Romo where he's a top 5 QB at his peak but will have his boneheaded moments that you scratch your head about.

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45 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Sanchez as a floor, Romo as the ceiling.

You didn't ask where he'll eventually be though. My guess is Andy Dalton. Nice 10+ year career, Not quite top 10, but close. Somewhere in the 11-15 range.

The premise of the thread (you can certainly challenge it) is that no one knows because the Jets haven't put him in a position to evaluate him in a conclusive way.

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I put Mark Sanchez as the floor, but could easily have put Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston (guys who’ve had some success, but off the roster within five years of being drafted)

Ceiling is Philip Rivers (the best example of a guy with goofy mechanics having a ton of success in the NFL)

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Just now, Philc1 said:

Floor is Jameis Winston.  Ceiling is Roethlisberger 

Good job. I like this one.

I'd be ecstatic if he turned out to be anywhere close to Rothlisberger. Not to be nit picky, but I just don't see the same toughness or arm strength with Sam. The Winston comp is excellent, again though, Darnold's deep ball and mechanics aren't as good. He has to stop with the back foot nonsense.

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