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Darnold Floor/Ceiling


Darnold's floor/ceiling  

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  1. 1. Darnold's FLOOR most closely resembles...

  2. 2. Darnold's CEILING most closely resembles...



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3 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Good job. I like this one.

I'd be ecstatic if he turned out to be anywhere close to Rothlisberger. Not to be nit picky, but I just don't see the same toughness or arm strength with Sam. The Winston comp is excellent, again though, Darnold's deep ball and mechanics aren't as good. He has to stop with the back foot nonsense.

I think he has a pretty good deep ball.  Again it’s tough to nudge because the lack of time he has had in his first two years 

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The kid is a beast. Only 22 years old playing with a bunch of scrubs he has made some unbelievable throws/plays. Yes he makes dumb mistakes also. There’s no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now he’s

His upside is not on the list:  Brett Favre.   His floor is Andy Dalton.  

He's already better than Sanchez ever was. Look at numbers and film people. His floor is Fitzpatrick, a guy who can make amazing things happen but brain farts just as often His ceiling is a

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44 minutes ago, Lith said:

Data certainly suggests that is correct.  Darnold's numbers from last year compared wtih Dalton's career numbers.  Almost identical on a per game basis:

Per Game

 
  Passing Rushing
Rk Player From To Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Att Yds TD
1 Andy Dalton 2011 2019 20.7 33.5 237.5 1.5 0.9 2.1 13.1 3.0 9.2 0.2
2 Sam Darnold 2019 2019 21.0 33.9 232.6 1.5 1.0 2.5 16.3 2.5 4.8 0.2

 

Dalton was 24 years old when he came into the NFL (same as Mayfield). Matt Staffod was Darnold age when drafted and it took him a couple of years to get his career started. I don’t think that should be discounted. 

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Just now, jgb said:

The premise of the thread (you can certainly challenge it) is that no one knows because the Jets haven't put him in a position to evaluate him in a conclusive way.

Meh.

If people can't form an opinion one way or the other after two seasons, they're just not trying. If that were the case, no QB from a bad team would get drafted, only guys who had tons of talent around them would.

You and I say it all the time... just because you have lesser talent around you, that doesn't mean you're good (or bad). The way a particular player performs decides it.

 

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11 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

I think he has a pretty good deep ball.  Again it’s tough to nudge because the lack of time he has had in his first two years 

Darnold deep ball definitely needs some work. It obvioulsy doesn’t help that he’s throwing them to Vyncint and Jeff Smith. Robby Anderson is an excellent deep threat, but he’s been known to run lazy routes also. 

I think if the Jets could draft a guy who really excels at tracking the football and winning the jump ball it would help Sam tremendously. Eli Manning got so much better at throwing the deep ball once Plaxico Burress joined the Giants. He learned that the deep ball isn’t about making the perfect throw as much as it is putting in a spot where your guy can go up and make a play on the ball. 

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3 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Meh.

If people can't form an opinion one way or the other after two seasons, they're just not trying. If that were the case, no QB from a bad team would get drafted, only guys who had tons of talent around them would.

You and I say it all the time... just because you have lesser talent around you, that doesn't mean you're good (or bad). The way a particular player performs decides it.

 

Yes but I think we can agree that having a lot of talent around you will certainly elevate your game significantly even if you are good.  On the flip side even if you are good but don’t have much help it’s gonna make life a lot harder to perform consistently well.  I mean in other sports you can get away with having bad talent around you but still being very productive but in football as a QB you can have Neither any protection or weapons and expect to perform very well 

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7 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Meh.

If people can't form an opinion one way or the other after two seasons, they're just not trying. If that were the case, no QB from a bad team would get drafted, only guys who had tons of talent around them would.

You and I say it all the time... just because you have lesser talent around you, that doesn't mean you're good (or bad). The way a particular player performs decides it.

 

I have formed an opinion: that Darnold's likely outcomes still have a wide range.

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2 hours ago, JetFan20 said:

Darnold deep ball definitely needs some work. It obvioulsy doesn’t help that he’s throwing them to Vyncint and Jeff Smith. Robby Anderson is an excellent deep threat, but he’s been known to run lazy routes also. 

I think if the Jets could draft a guy who really excels at tracking the football and winning the jump ball it would help Sam tremendously. Eli Manning got so much better at throwing the deep ball once Plaxico Burress joined the Giants. He learned that the deep ball isn’t about making the perfect throw as much as it is putting in a spot where your guy can go up and make a play on the ball. 

@Jetsfan80 said Favre is Darnold's ceiling. Actually pretty accurate in terms of style. The mind-blowing play followed by the mind-numbing play.

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I’m on board with Favre as a ceiling

Extending plays ... some crazy throws that make you go OMG this guy is amazing !!!!

Sprinkle in some decisions where you say WTF was that !?!?!

Agree that this “kids “ age right now needs to be taken into account ... as well as him consistently improving ... making ok decisions is a good thing not a bad thing.

Right now he’s too safe with running for 1st downs ... picking up a 3rd & short ... when a WR is not open ... but that is what the Coaches have been drilling into his head. His deep ball does need improvement on it’s accuracy/consistency

I’m very happy with the floor he’s already at


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4 minutes ago, ljr said:

I’m on board with Favre as a ceiling

Extending plays ... some crazy throws that make you go OMG this guy is amazing !!!!

Sprinkle in some decisions where you say WTF was that !?!?!

Agree that this “kids “ age right now needs to be taken into account ... as well as him consistently improving ... making ok decisions is a good thing not a bad thing.

Right now he’s too safe with running for 1st downs ... picking up a 3rd & short ... when a WR is not open ... but that is what the Coaches have been drilling into his head. His deep ball does need improvement on it’s accuracy/consistency

I’m very happy with the floor he’s already at


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You had me until this line. If Darnold doesn't improve, he's a Sanchezesque bust.

I think he will improve, although I do not know how much.

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On 4/20/2020 at 11:57 PM, Jetlife33 said:

Sanchez vs Darnold through 2 seasons Sam has the better stats in 5 less games with the insanely worse rostet

 

On 4/21/2020 at 12:00 AM, Jetlife33 said:

Sanchez never had a completion % above 56% with the Jets, Sams year 1 was 58% and year 2: 61.9

That is exactly why I bumped my floor from Sanchez to Fitz two weeks ago

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Just now, JETSALLDAY24X said:

Imo Ben Roethlisberger. Big strong kid who can make some really quirky throws on the go with defenders on him. 

I like that as well.  Only quibble I have is how hard Big Ben was to take down on a sack.  Darnold is not in that category, lol.  

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So far the majority have Dalton as a floor and Rogers as a ceiling. So the Mendoz-line of QBs as a floor and maybe the greatest pure passer in the history of the NFL as the ceiling.

Wow.

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I honestly don't know. I think he has more physical talent than any QB we have had since Namath. 

It remains to be seen whether he has the toughness, work ethic, and obsession with the sport to be as good as he can be. 

The other thing is, I really think the supporting cast around him has been bottom five in the league over his first two years, so that makes it really tough for me to project forward. He's also playing for a cursed franchise. 

I honestly don't know. It's the Jets, so deep down, I expect it to not work out for one reason or another. 

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Floor Eli (it will be very disappointing if he has same career as Eli unless his D carries him like Eli).

 

Ceiling is I want to say Rodgers but that's probably too high, I think he's similar to Romo but his ceiling is higher than Romo.

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Just now, Jetlife33 said:

Shoutout to @bla bla bla, Darnold performed better with a worse offensive line, wasn’t the huge jump we expected(more-so wanted)  but I think we’ll continue to see steady progress from Sam. 

A337D095-4D3D-4DAC-B061-0280AF9A8FAB.jpeg

Imagine either a better OL or more or weapons?  What about both? I have no worries about Sam.

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2 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

Imagine either a better OL or more or weapons?  What about both? I have no worries about Sam.

Jets haven’t had this much potential at QB since Namath. Factor in he’s had 2 years of NFL experience and isn’t even 23 years old yet, younger than Burrow as an example, etc. 

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I like that as well.  Only quibble I have is how hard Big Ben was to take down on a sack.  Darnold is not in that category, lol.  

Darnold makes guys miss and he's not afraid to take a hit. The problem is when 3-4 of your oline man get beat the hard to make 3 guys miss. Plus he's only 22 he's still filling into his frame and growing as an athlete. He's not even close to his peak yet.

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4 minutes ago, Jetlife33 said:

Also note he missed 3 games each season. If he can stay healthy for a full 16 and continue to progress we can see a bigger jump in production from year 2 to 3 than we did years 1 to 2

 

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3 minutes ago, JETSALLDAY24X said:

Darnold makes guys miss and he's not afraid to take a hit. The problem is when 3-4 of your oline man get beat the hard to make 3 guys miss. Plus he's only 22 he's still filling into his frame and growing as an athlete. He's not even close to his peak yet.

 

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