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Darnold Floor/Ceiling


Darnold's floor/ceiling  

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  1. 1. Darnold's FLOOR most closely resembles...

  2. 2. Darnold's CEILING most closely resembles...



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The kid is a beast. Only 22 years old playing with a bunch of scrubs he has made some unbelievable throws/plays. Yes he makes dumb mistakes also. There’s no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now he’s

His upside is not on the list:  Brett Favre.   His floor is Andy Dalton.  

He's already better than Sanchez ever was. Look at numbers and film people. His floor is Fitzpatrick, a guy who can make amazing things happen but brain farts just as often His ceiling is a

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56 minutes ago, ljr said:

I’m on board with Favre as a ceiling

Extending plays ... some crazy throws that make you go OMG this guy is amazing !!!!

Sprinkle in some decisions where you say WTF was that !?!?!

Agree that this “kids “ age right now needs to be taken into account ... as well as him consistently improving ... making ok decisions is a good thing not a bad thing.

Right now he’s too safe with running for 1st downs ... picking up a 3rd & short ... when a WR is not open ... but that is what the Coaches have been drilling into his head. His deep ball does need improvement on it’s accuracy/consistency

I’m very happy with the floor he’s already at


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I need to see a lot more toughness from Sam before I compare him to a young Favre. Brett was known for his off-script plays, but his ability to stand in the pocket and delver the ball knowing he’d take a hit was second to none. That’s why his career ended on a brutal hit.  Guys like Peyton, Brady, Eli,Rivers, etc wouldn’t take a hit like that at 40 years old. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Grandy said:

He's already better than Sanchez ever was. Look at numbers and film people.

His floor is Fitzpatrick, a guy who can make amazing things happen but brain farts just as often

His ceiling is a sort of Hybrid of Rivers, Rodgers, and Romo. He's already shown he can make plays that only a handful of QB's could hope to pull off, he just needs to be consistent to ascend to an elite level.

I understand the fitz comparison because of brain farts, but Darnold’s arm talent compared to fitz it isn’t even close 

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17 hours ago, jgb said:
You had me until this line. If Darnold doesn't improve, he's a Sanchezesque bust.
I think he will improve, although I do not know how much.

(not sure if on purpose just f*rting around or not, but that was not my quote ... anyway, no biggie ... let's see the kid steadily improve)



Instead I should have said


I’m very happy with where he is at now for a 22 year old


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I voted for his floor as Tony Romo.

I would've voted for his ceiling as even higher than Aaron Rodgers. 

Here's why. 

1.) He just quarterbacked for the 2nd most injury depleted team of All-Time. 

2.) For two years he's quarterbacked behind the NFL's worst Offensive Line (got his GM fired and replaced by JD).

3.) One of the youngest starting NFL QB's of All-Time (still only 22). 

4.) Had a lack of pass catching options outside of Robby (natural #2), Crowder (Slot) and Bell (RB with 61 receptions). 

5.) Second Head Coach and 2nd NFL offensive playbook (consecutive seasons). 

6.) Faced the most amount of defensive pressures due to his pocket collapsing but yet could still go out there during the 2nd half of the season and go...

Sam Darnold

(2nd half of 2019)

6-2 Overall Record.

163/267 (61.0%)

1,947 Passing Yards.

15 offensive TD's.

4 INTs.

QB Rating of 93.3

Aaron Rodgers 

(2nd half of 2009).

7-1 overall record.

186/281 (66.1%). 

 2,179 yards.

17 offensive TDs

2 INT's.

QB Rating of 103.2.

I remember Aaron Rodgers.

His second season as a starter (was during his 5th year in the league).

He backed up #4 while being developed under Brett Favre (for 3 years).

Drafted back in 2005 but yet his 2nd season as a starter (wasn't until 2009).

What Sam did during his 2019 2nd half

was more impressive than

what Aaron Rodgers did during his 2009 2nd half

(before losing wildcard weekend).

I can not imagine the numbers that Sam Darnold would put up once a 5th year pro.

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3 hours ago, JetFan20 said:

 

Dalton was 24 years old when he came into the NFL (same as Mayfield). Matt Staffod was Darnold age when drafted and it took him a couple of years to get his career started. I don’t think that should be discounted. 

Don't disagree with anything you are saying.  If his second season was pretty close to Dalton's career numbers, then that is his floor.  He is likely to get better.

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44 minutes ago, jgb said:

So far the majority have Dalton as a floor and Rogers as a ceiling. So the Mendoz-line of QBs as a floor and maybe the greatest pure passer in the history of the NFL as the ceiling.

Wow.

its a collective delusion. its magical thinking.

and, of course, i'll willingly and luaghingly eat a fugkton of crow if i am wrong...   but there is nothing telling me he is HOF

a good ceiling comp ?? maybe ROmo is it? Or matt stafford.

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3 minutes ago, Lith said:

Don't disagree with anything you are saying.  If his second season was pretty close to Dalton's career numbers, then that is his floor.  He is likely to get better.

but maybe only as better as Daltons good years, is also a possibility. 

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1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I think, and voted Romo as ceiling.  The Rodgers people are drunk.  All of them.

I voted Romo too since Favre wasn't there.  

And yes, Rodgers couldn't be more far off.  Super computer who mitigates risk vs gunslinger. 

I think jgb put that option in there specifically to show us who the drunks are.

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13 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

its a collective delusion. its magical thinking.

and, of course, i'll willingly and luaghingly eat a fugkton of crow if i am wrong...   but there is nothing telling me he is HOF

a good ceiling comp ?? maybe ROmo is it? Or matt stafford.

Matt Stafford cannon arm. Not a good comp for Darnold. Romo is the best I’ve got.

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4 minutes ago, jgb said:

Funny how no two humans are exactly the same.seems your quibble is with God, not me.

its an honest question, i have not watched enough of Romo to actually know...     shrug

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26 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

did Romo consistently underthrow the dep ball?


“Darnold managed to finish inside the top 10 in accuracy on throws of 21-25 yards, 31-35 yards, to the right of the field, and under edge pressure. He only threw one deep interception as well.”

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1 minute ago, Jetlife33 said:


“Darnold managed to finish inside the top 10 in accuracy on throws of 21-25 yards, 31-35 yards, to the right of the field, and under edge pressure. He only threw one deep interception as well.”

good point . the memories i have are even DEEPER than these parameters...

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5 hours ago, JetFan20 said:

I need to see a lot more toughness from Sam before I compare him to a young Favre. Brett was known for his off-script plays, but his ability to stand in the pocket and delver the ball knowing he’d take a hit was second to none. That’s why his career ended on a brutal hit.  Guys like Peyton, Brady, Eli,Rivers, etc wouldn’t take a hit like that at 40 years old. 

 

 

 

No idea if Sam can be as tough, over time, as a younger Favre was.  If he can that would be a nice ceiling to reach.  I do know that Sam has already delivered plenty of passes while being smashed both in and out of the pocket in his first 2 years.  I don't see the need to question his toughness up to this point.  Not positive of all the details with the 2018 foot strain but pain threshold/tolerance was definitely not the issue.  Also, this past year the 3 games missed with mono & strep throat was to avoid death, lol ... i don't think it's fair to hold that against him.

The hits that Sam has taken and how he's handled himself after them I certainly have not seen anything to make me believe he does not deserve to be in the tough guy bin.

 

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17 hours ago, Jetlife33 said:

Also note he missed 3 games each season. If he can stay healthy for a full 16 and continue to progress we can see a bigger jump in production from year 2 to 3 than we did years 1 to 2

Or....we might have to bake into our expectations that he's going to miss a couple games every season.  

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3 minutes ago, Jetlife33 said:

Regardless of the YAC, did you see Sam manipulate the pocket, scramble and throw a dime? Literally with the clock winding down from 5 to 0 lol 

like what I see in Sam ... he def deserves has some skills to move smoothly outside of the pocket

That clip was a Ronald Jones highlight clip tough, not a Sam one .. .thanks for posting it though ... made me happy to watch

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or....we might have to bake into our expectations that he's going to miss a couple games every season.  

It’s one of those things where we’ll have to see him do it first before we can expect it, no doubt. 

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On 4/20/2020 at 12:17 PM, Jets723 said:

 Like you said it’s impossible to make a fair judgment in him yet because he has had zero help/protection 

Almost no QB gets a 'fair' judgement. The reality is a QB has to perform and have success regardless of "help" in the NFL. Otherwise, you end up with some jollymfers who say stuff like, "..but Geno never had any weapons" and "You can't say hackenberg is bad until he plays!"

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