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Vegas bookmakers have Jets at 6.5 wins for next season


Philc1
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When they opened last month at 7.5, I thought the under was a lock considering the schedule and talent on the roster. Apparently I was correct.

The change to 6.5 is a lot more a reaction to people feeling the way I did, and loading up on the Under. The oddsmakers are trying to find the number that gets an equal amount placed on both bets. That's always their goal. It's not about how many games THEY think the Jets will win.

Example being, have two guys come in with one taking the over, the other the under, both for $100. When that happens, they just sit back and collect the vig. If the money fell 80-20 favoring the over, Vegas becomes just another bettor, hoping for the under, so they don't lose their shirt. 

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I know its considered stupid to try to count W's and L's 5 months prior to the season.  But who sees 7+ wins out of a schedule with these opponents?  Come on now. 

  • Bills x2
  • Pats x2
  • Dolphins x2
  • @ Colts
  • @ Chiefs
  • @ Chargers
  • @ Rams
  • @ Seahawks
  • Broncos
  • Raiders
  • Cardinals
  • 49ers
  • Browns

Even if we go 3-3 in division play (and that's optimistic), I struggle to find 4+ wins in that non-conference schedule.  That's a brutal road slate.  

Outside of the division the only guaranteed losses I see are the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road and maybe the 49ers at home. In a week from now I'll be able to give you a more thorough answer as to how many wins I see in 2020. We could go from 9-7 to 11-5 with a nice haul via trades & draft picks. Let's see what Joe Douglas can do. 

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2 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

Outside of the division the only guaranteed losses I see are the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road and maybe the 49ers at home. In a week from now I'll be able to give you a more thorough answer as to how many wins I see in 2020. We could go from 9-7 to 11-5 with a nice haul via trades & draft picks. Let's see what Joe Douglas can do. 

That's a very rosy look, and assumes we win all the games we're "supposed" to win (which truth be told, are none; even Miami at home is a pick 'em type game).  

Also, the draft won't significantly move the needle for 2020.  The 2 positions we need most, OT and WR, are 2 of the slowest-developing positions.  The OT we take might not even start right away, and if he does, will be at RT while Fant handles LT.  WR's are notoriously slow in making an impact as they get adjusted to pro Corners.  

Thus the immediate impact would have to come from finding a stud or 2 in the middle rounds.  

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Just now, playtowinthegame said:

It's highly questionable that happens. The AFC East is wide open in 2020. It's anyone's division.

 

No it isn't.

The Bills will be the clear favorites, the Pats the second choice.

Miami is the team to watch out for though in the near future. 5 #1 picks, and 4 #2's in the next two drafts. That's crazy.

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2 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

A lot can happen between now and the completion of the draft.

Nothing that's going to push us from 6.5 wins to 9.5.  

The defense can get better with some middle-round investment at CB.  Sadly there aren't many exciting EDGE guys in the middle rounds.  The offense is still a work in progress no matter who we take in the draft.

I'd say 6 or 7 wins is spot on.  

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Just now, playtowinthegame said:

OT: Are you celebrating 4/20 early?

The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB.  You say the Jets can get better in the draft.  Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have?

We're a 3rd place team regardless.

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2 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

AFC West and NFC West.  Much tougher schedule than 2019 IMO...

Gase will be on the hot seat at season's end if 6 wins is our max. Smart of JD to load up on OL because the only way we stand a chance is to have the Defense elevate to top 10 and MAX protection for Darnold. If he's running for his life again, 6 wins seems about right..... and Gase is out the door and JD picks his coach (Balt. or Eagles) 

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB.  You say the Jets can get better in the draft.  Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have?

We're a 3rd place team regardless.

This.

It's amazing how smart you are when you aren't talking Safeties.  😜

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40 minutes ago, jgb said:

Bills stacked and will beat up on Miami and us.

Not so sure. The Bills ARE stacked but history tells us we usually split with them. As for Miami , if I'm a Dolfag fan I would be quite pleased with the teams FA haul PLUS having 14 draft picks including 3 1st rounders.

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Nothing that's going to push us from 6.5 wins to 9.5.  

The defense can get better with some middle-round investment at CB.  Sadly there aren't many exciting EDGE guys in the middle rounds.

I'd say 6 or 7 wins is spot on.  

If Joe trades Adams for a huge haul and we end up with multiple picks in round 1-2 and nail each pick I believe there's an excellent chance for a synergistic effect on the entire team that can change the win total by 2 to 3 wins. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I feel confident in Joe Douglas for the simple fact the guy is a Ozzie Newsome deciple.

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2 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

Not so sure. The Bills ARE stacked but history tells us we usually split with them. As for Miami , if I'm a Dolfag fan I would be quite pleased with the teams FA haul PLUS having 14 draft picks including 3 1st rounders.

Bills scare me a lot more than Miami. Bunch of draft picks are not likely to result in a significant change first year. Although maybe Josh Rosen will shake free so @T0mShane can hire him as his cabana boy.

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Just now, playtowinthegame said:

If Joe trades Adams for a huge haul and we end up with multiple picks in round 1-2 and nail each pick I believe there's an excellent chance for a synergistic effect on the entire team that can change the win total by 2 to 3 wins. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I feel confident in Joe Douglas for the simple fact the guy is a Ozzie Newsome deciple.

Huge haul, possible. Nailing each one, unlikely to the point of nearly impossible.

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Just now, Thai Jet said:

Not so sure. The Bills ARE stacked but history tells us we usually split with them. As for Miami , if I'm a Dolfag fan I would be quite pleased with the teams FA haul PLUS having 14 draft picks including 3 1st rounders.

You're right about us always seeming to split with Buffalo (Miami also), but I think the Bills have clearly separated themselves.

BTW I can't wait to read @Jetsfan80's rants when the running back they have playing QB is in the MVP conversation this season.

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18 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

A lot can happen between now and the completion of the draft.

A lot will change. Problem is if it was possible to know right after draft what impact will be, there would be a lot less busts in the early rounds.

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1 hour ago, Rhg1084 said:

Ok so let’s break this down:

Pats Dolphins and Bills 6 games, there’s no reason we can’t go 3-3. The Pats have one of the worst offenses in football.

Now for the meat and potatoes. Raiders, Chargers, Broncos, Rams, Colts, Cardinals, Browns. Can we optimistically say 4-3? 
 

then there’s the Chiefs, Niners, and Seahawks. It’d be tough to win one of those games but who knows, but I’ll give them an 0-3.

 

thats 7-9 and over Vegas 6 wins... easy money 💰 

I will break down your break down:

Pats and Phins we will split.  2-2.  We lose both games to the Bills 0-2.  Bills are better, and they gave the Jets the last game last year.

2-4 so far.

The meat and potatoes picks:  4-3.  I agree with you here.

The Chiefs, Niners and Seakawks.  0-3.  I agree with you.

6-10 for the year.  That's under 6.5, and that is the under.

Of course, these are early, early predictions, but if you're picking them now, this is the most realistic.

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Just now, playtowinthegame said:

If Joe trades Adams for a huge haul and we end up with multiple picks in round 1-2 and nail each pick I believe there's an excellent chance for a synergistic effect on the entire team that can change the win total by 2 to 3 wins. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I feel confident in Joe Douglas for the simple fact the guy is a Ozzie Newsome deciple.

Dammit.

You drank all the Kool Aid again. Why can't you ever save some for the rest of us?

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31 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

When they opened last month at 7.5, I thought the under was a lock considering the schedule and talent on the roster. Apparently I was correct.

The change to 6.5 is a lot more a reaction to people feeling the way I did, and loading up on the Under. The oddsmakers are trying to find the number that gets an equal amount placed on both bets. That's always their goal. It's not about how many games THEY think the Jets will win.

Example being, have two guys come in with one taking the over, the other the under, both for $100. When that happens, they just sit back and collect the vig. If the money fell 80-20 favoring the over, Vegas becomes just another bettor, hoping for the under, so they don't lose their shirt. 

Yep, you are right. Vegas rarely bets--and even when they do it's because their oddsmakers messed up or a late huge betting flurry caught them on one side or the other.

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13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB.  You say the Jets can get better in the draft.  Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have?

We're a 3rd place team regardless.

What's so great about the Dolphins GM, Chris Grier? He's been in that position since 2016. Seems like a failed GM (28-36) if you ask me. 

As for Belichick I cannot wait to see him without Brady in 2020. Think 2008, no playoffs, but 7 to 8 wins instead of 11. 

Regardless Jetsfan80, at the moment the AFC East is wide open in 2020. Up for grabs. 

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Just now, playtowinthegame said:

If we're picking twice in each of the first 3 rounds I like Joe's chances for success in finding difference makers from a potential haul via trading Jamal. 

Why? Here are the statistics of starters versus the round they were drafted.

Round Freq. Percent Cuml
1 178 29.9 29.9
2 104 17.5 47.4
3 75 12.6 60.0
4 64 10.8 70.8
5 38 6.4 77.2
6 29 4.9 82.0
7 25 4.2 86.2
Undrafted 81 13.6 99.8
Supplemental 1 0.2 100.0
Total 595 100
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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB.  You say the Jets can get better in the draft.  Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have?

We're a 3rd place team regardless.

And if wasn’t for Kaare Vedvik the jets are 2-0 facing the greatest team ever the bills

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I know its considered stupid to try to count W's and L's 5 months prior to the season.  But who sees 7+ wins out of a schedule with these opponents?  Come on now. 

  • Bills x2
  • Pats x2
  • Dolphins x2
  • @ Colts
  • @ Chiefs
  • @ Chargers
  • @ Rams
  • @ Seahawks
  • Broncos
  • Raiders
  • Cardinals
  • 49ers
  • Browns

Even if we go 3-3 in division play (and that's optimistic), I struggle to find 4+ wins in that non-conference schedule. 

That's a brutal road slate, with 3 trips to the west coast.

The only 2 games that Id say are definite losses are KC and Seattle.  Niners are tough but theyre going cross country.   The rest of the schedule games all seem winnable even if we are underdogs.  Remember our defense was tough last year and should be better this year and should keep the games close.

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12 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

The only 2 games that Id say are definite losses are KC and Seattle.  Niners are tough but theyre going cross country.   The rest of the schedule games all seem winnable even if we are underdogs.  Remember our defense was tough last year and should be better this year and should keep the games close.

Of course a lot of the games are winnable.  But there's not one easy game in the mix, and there's always games you think will be easy that end up not being so.  That's why I prefaced it by saying we really don't know at this stage. 

But no matter how you splice it, this schedule is worlds different from last year's.

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