14 in Green Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 When they opened last month at 7.5, I thought the under was a lock considering the schedule and talent on the roster. Apparently I was correct. The change to 6.5 is a lot more a reaction to people feeling the way I did, and loading up on the Under. The oddsmakers are trying to find the number that gets an equal amount placed on both bets. That's always their goal. It's not about how many games THEY think the Jets will win. Example being, have two guys come in with one taking the over, the other the under, both for $100. When that happens, they just sit back and collect the vig. If the money fell 80-20 favoring the over, Vegas becomes just another bettor, hoping for the under, so they don't lose their shirt. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Jetsfan80 said: I know its considered stupid to try to count W's and L's 5 months prior to the season. But who sees 7+ wins out of a schedule with these opponents? Come on now. Bills x2 Pats x2 Dolphins x2 @ Colts @ Chiefs @ Chargers @ Rams @ Seahawks Broncos Raiders Cardinals 49ers Browns Even if we go 3-3 in division play (and that's optimistic), I struggle to find 4+ wins in that non-conference schedule. That's a brutal road slate. Outside of the division the only guaranteed losses I see are the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road and maybe the 49ers at home. In a week from now I'll be able to give you a more thorough answer as to how many wins I see in 2020. We could go from 9-7 to 11-5 with a nice haul via trades & draft picks. Let's see what Joe Douglas can do. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said: Outside of the division the only guaranteed losses I see are the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road and maybe the 49ers at home. In a week from now I'll be able to give you a more thorough answer as to how many wins I see in 2020. We could go from 9-7 to 11-5 with a nice haul via trades & draft picks. Let's see what Joe Douglas can do. That's a very rosy look, and assumes we win all the games we're "supposed" to win (which truth be told, are none; even Miami at home is a pick 'em type game). Also, the draft won't significantly move the needle for 2020. The 2 positions we need most, OT and WR, are 2 of the slowest-developing positions. The OT we take might not even start right away, and if he does, will be at RT while Fant handles LT. WR's are notoriously slow in making an impact as they get adjusted to pro Corners. Thus the immediate impact would have to come from finding a stud or 2 in the middle rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14 in Green Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, playtowinthegame said: It's highly questionable that happens. The AFC East is wide open in 2020. It's anyone's division. No it isn't. The Bills will be the clear favorites, the Pats the second choice. Miami is the team to watch out for though in the near future. 5 #1 picks, and 4 #2's in the next two drafts. That's crazy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, jgb said: You're a genius of you can tell immediately after the draft how it will impact W's and L's. I can't wait for your analysis. Not being sarcastic. A lot can happen between now and the completion of the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, jgb said: You're a genius of you can tell immediately after the draft how it will impact W's and L's. I can't wait for your analysis. Not being sarcastic. A lot can happen between now and the completion of the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said: A lot can happen between now and the completion of the draft. Nothing that's going to push us from 6.5 wins to 9.5. The defense can get better with some middle-round investment at CB. Sadly there aren't many exciting EDGE guys in the middle rounds. The offense is still a work in progress no matter who we take in the draft. I'd say 6 or 7 wins is spot on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 minute ago, 14 in Green said: No it isn't. The Bills will be the clear favorites, the Pats the second choice. Miami is the team to watch out for though in the near future. 5 #1 picks, and 4 #2's in the next two drafts. That's crazy. OT: Are you celebrating 4/20 early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, playtowinthegame said: OT: Are you celebrating 4/20 early? The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB. You say the Jets can get better in the draft. Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have? We're a 3rd place team regardless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32EBoozer Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 2 hours ago, peekskill68 said: AFC West and NFC West. Much tougher schedule than 2019 IMO... Gase will be on the hot seat at season's end if 6 wins is our max. Smart of JD to load up on OL because the only way we stand a chance is to have the Defense elevate to top 10 and MAX protection for Darnold. If he's running for his life again, 6 wins seems about right..... and Gase is out the door and JD picks his coach (Balt. or Eagles) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14 in Green Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Jetsfan80 said: The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB. You say the Jets can get better in the draft. Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have? We're a 3rd place team regardless. This. It's amazing how smart you are when you aren't talking Safeties. ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Jet Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 40 minutes ago, jgb said: Bills stacked and will beat up on Miami and us. Not so sure. The Bills ARE stacked but history tells us we usually split with them. As for Miami , if I'm a Dolfag fan I would be quite pleased with the teams FA haul PLUS having 14 draft picks including 3 1st rounders. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Jetsfan80 said: Nothing that's going to push us from 6.5 wins to 9.5. The defense can get better with some middle-round investment at CB. Sadly there aren't many exciting EDGE guys in the middle rounds. I'd say 6 or 7 wins is spot on. If Joe trades Adams for a huge haul and we end up with multiple picks in round 1-2 and nail each pick I believe there's an excellent chance for a synergistic effect on the entire team that can change the win total by 2 to 3 wins. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I feel confident in Joe Douglas for the simple fact the guy is a Ozzie Newsome deciple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thai Jet said: Not so sure. The Bills ARE stacked but history tells us we usually split with them. As for Miami , if I'm a Dolfag fan I would be quite pleased with the teams FA haul PLUS having 14 draft picks including 3 1st rounders. Bills scare me a lot more than Miami. Bunch of draft picks are not likely to result in a significant change first year. Although maybe Josh Rosen will shake free so @T0mShane can hire him as his cabana boy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, playtowinthegame said: If Joe trades Adams for a huge haul and we end up with multiple picks in round 1-2 and nail each pick I believe there's an excellent chance for a synergistic effect on the entire team that can change the win total by 2 to 3 wins. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I feel confident in Joe Douglas for the simple fact the guy is a Ozzie Newsome deciple. Huge haul, possible. Nailing each one, unlikely to the point of nearly impossible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14 in Green Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Thai Jet said: Not so sure. The Bills ARE stacked but history tells us we usually split with them. As for Miami , if I'm a Dolfag fan I would be quite pleased with the teams FA haul PLUS having 14 draft picks including 3 1st rounders. You're right about us always seeming to split with Buffalo (Miami also), but I think the Bills have clearly separated themselves. BTW I can't wait to read @Jetsfan80's rants when the running back they have playing QB is in the MVP conversation this season. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said: A lot can happen between now and the completion of the draft. A lot will change. Problem is if it was possible to know right after draft what impact will be, there would be a lot less busts in the early rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alka Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Rhg1084 said: Ok so let’s break this down: Pats Dolphins and Bills 6 games, there’s no reason we can’t go 3-3. The Pats have one of the worst offenses in football. Now for the meat and potatoes. Raiders, Chargers, Broncos, Rams, Colts, Cardinals, Browns. Can we optimistically say 4-3? then there’s the Chiefs, Niners, and Seahawks. It’d be tough to win one of those games but who knows, but I’ll give them an 0-3. thats 7-9 and over Vegas 6 wins... easy money ? I will break down your break down: Pats and Phins we will split. 2-2. We lose both games to the Bills 0-2. Bills are better, and they gave the Jets the last game last year. 2-4 so far. The meat and potatoes picks: 4-3. I agree with you here. The Chiefs, Niners and Seakawks. 0-3. I agree with you. 6-10 for the year. That's under 6.5, and that is the under. Of course, these are early, early predictions, but if you're picking them now, this is the most realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said: Why is his name in quotes? Is that a pseudonym? You have a coach, let's say. We'll call him "Gase". This "Gase" is... Or call him "Gayz" like Fat Mike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14 in Green Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, playtowinthegame said: If Joe trades Adams for a huge haul and we end up with multiple picks in round 1-2 and nail each pick I believe there's an excellent chance for a synergistic effect on the entire team that can change the win total by 2 to 3 wins. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I feel confident in Joe Douglas for the simple fact the guy is a Ozzie Newsome deciple. Dammit. You drank all the Kool Aid again. Why can't you ever save some for the rest of us? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAD_Brooklyn Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Would definitely choose under and cash in. I even bet Douglas placed a under bet under his wife's name for crying out loud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 31 minutes ago, 14 in Green said: When they opened last month at 7.5, I thought the under was a lock considering the schedule and talent on the roster. Apparently I was correct. The change to 6.5 is a lot more a reaction to people feeling the way I did, and loading up on the Under. The oddsmakers are trying to find the number that gets an equal amount placed on both bets. That's always their goal. It's not about how many games THEY think the Jets will win. Example being, have two guys come in with one taking the over, the other the under, both for $100. When that happens, they just sit back and collect the vig. If the money fell 80-20 favoring the over, Vegas becomes just another bettor, hoping for the under, so they don't lose their shirt. Yep, you are right. Vegas rarely bets--and even when they do it's because their oddsmakers messed up or a late huge betting flurry caught them on one side or the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB. You say the Jets can get better in the draft. Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have? We're a 3rd place team regardless. What's so great about the Dolphins GM, Chris Grier? He's been in that position since 2016. Seems like a failed GM (28-36) if you ask me. As for Belichick I cannot wait to see him without Brady in 2020. Think 2008, no playoffs, but 7 to 8 wins instead of 11. Regardless Jetsfan80, at the moment the AFC East is wide open in 2020. Up for grabs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidelioJet Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Talk to me after the draft - but right now I take the under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, jgb said: Huge haul, possible. Nailing each one, unlikely to the point of nearly impossible. If we're picking twice in each of the first 3 rounds I like Joe's chances for success in finding difference makers from a potential haul via trading Jamal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, playtowinthegame said: If we're picking twice in each of the first 3 rounds I like Joe's chances for success in finding difference makers from a potential haul via trading Jamal. Why? Here are the statistics of starters versus the round they were drafted. Round Freq. Percent Cuml 1 178 29.9 29.9 2 104 17.5 47.4 3 75 12.6 60.0 4 64 10.8 70.8 5 38 6.4 77.2 6 29 4.9 82.0 7 25 4.2 86.2 Undrafted 81 13.6 99.8 Supplemental 1 0.2 100.0 Total 595 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetPotato Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 I wouldn't rush to take the over when we don't even know if there will be a full 16 game schedule yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetstream23 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Quote Vegas bookmakers have Jets at 6.5 wins for next season Where we gonna find that .5 win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 14 hours ago, jetstream23 said: Where we gonna find that .5 win? Jets will win some games they "shouldn't" win, just to drop a turd against an inferior team the next week. Nothing ever ends as one believes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc1 Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said: The Patriots still have Belichick and the Bills' roster is loaded outside of that RB they have playing QB. You say the Jets can get better in the draft. Why can't the Dolphins too with all of those picks they have? We're a 3rd place team regardless. And if wasn’t for Kaare Vedvik the jets are 2-0 facing the greatest team ever the bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bowles Movement Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said: I know its considered stupid to try to count W's and L's 5 months prior to the season. But who sees 7+ wins out of a schedule with these opponents? Come on now. Bills x2 Pats x2 Dolphins x2 @ Colts @ Chiefs @ Chargers @ Rams @ Seahawks Broncos Raiders Cardinals 49ers Browns Even if we go 3-3 in division play (and that's optimistic), I struggle to find 4+ wins in that non-conference schedule. That's a brutal road slate, with 3 trips to the west coast. The only 2 games that Id say are definite losses are KC and Seattle. Niners are tough but theyre going cross country. The rest of the schedule games all seem winnable even if we are underdogs. Remember our defense was tough last year and should be better this year and should keep the games close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Philc1 said: And Mike Francesa of all people says the jets will be over that easy https://elitesportsny.com/2020/04/16/new-york-jets-news-caesars-sportsbook-reveals-over-under-win-total-for-2020/ Its fair do to the amount of unknowns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said: The only 2 games that Id say are definite losses are KC and Seattle. Niners are tough but theyre going cross country. The rest of the schedule games all seem winnable even if we are underdogs. Remember our defense was tough last year and should be better this year and should keep the games close. Of course a lot of the games are winnable. But there's not one easy game in the mix, and there's always games you think will be easy that end up not being so. That's why I prefaced it by saying we really don't know at this stage. But no matter how you splice it, this schedule is worlds different from last year's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14 in Green Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Philc1 said: And if wasn’t for Kaare Vedvik the jets are 2-0 facing the greatest team ever the bills You forgot the part about us barely beating them when they were not playing their starters in the second game. Cool story though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, 14 in Green said: You forgot the part about us barely beating them when they were not playing their starters in the second game. Cool story though. SAR I: "We swept the Bills!!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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