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Maybe James Morgan wasn't a crazy pick?


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1 hour ago, Jets1958 said:

um... do you really think he would have telegraphed the pick? BB? Are you sure we are talking about the same NE coach?

Where was this guy ever link to the Pats? I heard Love, I heard Hurts even Tagovailoa had he dropped..but never heard anyone talk about the pats might be interested in him..again I am sure if they were that interested they would of went for him..their first draft pick (which they traded down to get) was a D2 safety.

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23 minutes ago, viffer said:

I agree. A developmental QB is not going to get any first team reps or any game experience, so we will likely never know how good he is/could be. But more important, this was a crazy pick in the 4rth round. In the deepest wide receiver draft in decades, we got ONE receiver. So now we have a total of TWO. Don't tell me about Perriman, Doctson, or anyone else. We have one proven receiver, and one rookie from a school known for not producing quality NFL receivers (the guy is basically another Robby Andersen; can run a go route and not much else).

This pick should have been on a wide receiver, if not one of the earlier picks. I was a big JD defender before the draft, but I think he blew it. But time will tell. Hopefully I'm wrong (been waiting 50 years for a super bowl championship, don't know if I'll live long enough to see one...).

That is the part I still can't wrap my head around.   We had a chance to draft another potential STUD receiver to go along with Mims and Perriman.    As you said Morgan is not going to see the field unless Sam gets hurt, meanwhile we pass on someone who might help the team now. as well as in the future.  See my thread - 

 

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27 minutes ago, viffer said:

In the deepest wide receiver draft in decades, we got ONE receiver. So now we have a total of TWO. Don't tell me about Perriman, Doctson, or anyone else. We have one proven receiver, and one rookie from a school known for not producing quality NFL receivers (the guy is basically another Robby Andersen; can run a go route and not much else).

So tell us, who and when would YOU have picked WR's?

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22 minutes ago, ghost_in_pads02 said:

Where was this guy ever link to the Pats? I heard Love, I heard Hurts even Tagovailoa had he dropped..but never heard anyone talk about the pats might be interested in him..again I am sure if they were that interested they would of went for him..their first draft pick (which they traded down to get) was a D2 safety.

In any case, who cares? Listen, I love to screw the Pats and BB in particular after how he screwed us. But with the severe lack of talent on our team, and the best wide receiver class in decades, drafting a 3rd string QB so that the Pats don't get him makes no sense. We needed receivers, and instead we get a bench warmer.

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1 minute ago, JetBlue said:

That is the part I still can't wrap my head around.   We had a chance to draft another potential STUD receiver to go along with Mims and Perriman.    As you said Morgan is not going to see the field unless Sam gets hurt, meanwhile we pass on someone who might help the team now. as well as in the future.  See my thread - 

Who is the "stud" we seemingly skipped on in the 4th?

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The qb pick was smart.

its easy to say Oh we didnt need a qb we needed wrs but thats logic from the past which resulted in little depth and the need to overpay for vets when the chickens came home to roost.

A wr or two will skake off after camp and cuts. Rome wasn't in Built in a day

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13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Who is the "stud" we seemingly skipped on in the 4th?

Here are all the receivers still on the board when we selected James Morgan:

Gabriel Davis
John Hightower
Tyler Johnson
Joe Reed
Quez Watkins
Isiah Hodgins
James Proche
AGG
Jauan Jennings

Some of them dropped even further so to be fair, other teams passed on them as well.  However, I think of that group several have the potential to develop into "stud" at their positions in the next few years.    Maybe we can say the same of Morgan, if he ever gets off the bench.  Best case scenario is we can trade him for picks if he develops into something.  

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

At first glance, just looking at the completion percentage alone, it does seem that way. 

Looking a little deeper, he didn't throw to his backs a lot, and those ultra-high percentage attempts really boost one's aggregate percentage. 

Rushing & Receiving Table
  Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec
Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Shermar Thornton         51 668 13.1 5 51 668 13.1 5
2 Tony Gaiter IV         50 647 12.9 4 50 647 12.9 4
3 Austin Maloney         33 639 19.4 2 33 639 19.4 2
4 Maurice Alexander 9 42 4.7 0 25 298 11.9 1 34 340 10.0 1
5 Sterling Palmer         22 205 9.3 0 22 205 9.3 0
6 Napoleon Maxwell 128 675 5.3 9 13 94 7.2 0 141 769 5.5 9
7 Anthony Jones 187 867 4.6 9 10 123 12.3 2 197 990 5.0 11
8 D'Vonte Price 50 249 5.0 0 10 49 4.9 0 60 298 5.0 0
9 Kamareon Williams         3 27 9.0 0 3 27 9.0 0
10 Darrius Scott         3 0 0.0 0 3 0 0.0 0
11 Cadarius Gaskin         2 17 8.5 0 2 17 8.5 0
12 David O'Meara         1 12 12.0 0 1 12 12.0 0
 

So the 3 in red are his backs. Like most, I didn't see one FIU snap all year and don't know what Alexander really is - maybe a 5'9/170 version of Brad Smith, as he's listed as a QB/WR - but just from that position title (and his stature) it doesn't seem he typically lined up behind Morgan on plays where passes went his way. 

So without knowing attempts from SR, and just going by completions, it's 33 to his backs and 164 to his WRs. Plus another 26 to his TEs but it's hard to know how wide open they typically are just by YPR (just because we know they're shorter passes doesn't mean they're wide open like a back in the flat with no one within 3-5 yards of him). 

So given the receiving:rushing ratio for each of his 3 backs - more than 10:1 - without taking far more time to look at a lot of film it suggests when he's passing it's empty backfield a lot (my guess is almost always shotgun at that, but I really don't know), removing an even higher number of high percentage outlet tosses when his downfield targets are all covered. 

Beyond that one would have to look at whole-game film -- not only to see if my guess is right, but also to see the ball placement on those attempts he did throw, completed or not. How many of those incomplete passes were thrown away, how many were dropped, how many looked like (from body language) the QB thought his target would go another way, or to your guess yeah how many did he just not throw it accurately (whether ultimately completed or not, how was his placement)?

I also read that he had an inordinate amount of drops his senior year which effected his completion stats. 

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5 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Here are all the receivers still on the board when we selected James Morgan:

Gabriel Davis
John Hightower
Tyler Johnson
Joe Reed
Quez Watkins
Isiah Hodgins
James Proche
AGG
Jauan Jennings

Some of them dropped even further so to be fair, other teams passed on them as well.  However, I think of that group several have the potential to develop into "stud" at their positions in the next few years.    Maybe we can say the same of Morgan, if he ever gets off the bench.  Best case scenario is we can trade him for picks if he develops into something.  

I didn't ask for "all the receivers".

I asked who the "STUD" was as you see it.

These guys were all rated ~20 and lower in this class.

So who is the STUD, and why did the rest of the NFL pass on them for four rounds?  

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He was a guy who was constantly linked to us so I did a lot of work on him. Not a crazy pick at all. I thought he was going to be our pick in the 5th round, but that might have been wishful thinking. More and more we're seeing teams invest 3rd-4th round picks in backup QBs (Eagles investing a 2nd!) and I think it will continue. With the way the salary cap is going to explode, teams won't want to invest $10-12 million on a backup if you don't have to. There's no question Sam is the guy, but having a talented backup that the Jets can develop is beneficial in a number of ways: (1) ideally he becomes the Jets "long-term" backup; (2) if he outperforms the backup label, Jets can trade him for draft capital.  

I have a newfound respect for the backup QB after watching last year. I think Fales will remain for this year, but I would expect the Jets to move forward with a 2-man QB room for the foreseeable future thereafter. While I would have rather the Jets drafted an impact prospect, you won't hear any complaints out of me.

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22 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

The qb pick was smart.

its easy to say Oh we didnt need a qb we needed wrs but thats logic from the past which resulted in little depth and the need to overpay for vets when the chickens came home to roost.

A wr or two will skake off after camp and cuts. Rome wasn't in Built in a day

We don't need depth at QB right now. QB depth is for teams that have a chance at contention. The Pats needed a good backup. The Jets don't. If Sam goes down, we have zero chance anyways. Yes, backup QB is an important position, but WR was a much bigger need at the time.

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8 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

I also read that he had an inordinate amount of drops his senior year which effected his completion stats. 

Yeah I was going to include that as a maybe-reason, but I figured how many drops would it take as the reason for someone completing 58% instead of 65% or more?

I was going by the numbers since the lack of boosting by hardly throwing to his backs is reason enough. Hearing that he had a lot of drops on top of that only exacerbates the completion percentage.

The point still stands, that the stat alone doesn't always tell the whole story. 

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22 hours ago, Larz said:

Who said it was crazy?

we don’t need another washed up journeyman backup 

develop a young guy and maybe even trade him for a “profit “
 

 

@Beerfish for one doesn’t agree.  Feels you never do this.

Because it was such a fail in GB, NE and other places 

I agree with you totally and was calling to draft a backup months ago, this one specifically so obviously I’m happy

 

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55 minutes ago, ghost_in_pads02 said:

Where was this guy ever link to the Pats? I heard Love, I heard Hurts even Tagovailoa had he dropped..but never heard anyone talk about the pats might be interested in him..again I am sure if they were that interested they would of went for him..their first draft pick (which they traded down to get) was a D2 safety.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-showing-interest-in-florida-international-quarterback-james-morgan-per-report/

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19 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Here are all the receivers still on the board when we selected James Morgan:

Gabriel Davis
John Hightower
Tyler Johnson
Joe Reed
Quez Watkins
Isiah Hodgins
James Proche
AGG
Jauan Jennings

Some of them dropped even further so to be fair, other teams passed on them as well.  However, I think of that group several have the potential to develop into "stud" at their positions in the next few years.    Maybe we can say the same of Morgan, if he ever gets off the bench.  Best case scenario is we can trade him for picks if he develops into something.  

None studs

And I don’t are, QB trumps all these bodies.  

who are they better than?  A 6th, 7th type already here?  
 

Just trust the GM and there draft he’s leading.  You don’t know more and this is beating a dead horse material
 

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I didn't ask for "all the receivers".

I asked who the "STUD" was as you see it.

These guys were all rated ~20 and lower in this class.

So who is the STUD, and why did the rest of the NFL pass on them for four rounds?  

I answered your question. If you take issue with the term stud so be it.  I consider Tyler Johnson, Quez Watkins guys who can have an immediate impact as receivers and yes I think they are "studs" but just need development as can be said for several other receivers that got passed on.  

 I can't answer why other teams passed on them.  Just like I can't answer why Mims lasted until the 59th pick, to our great fortune.    I gave you list of receivers that I meaning, ME, believe can excel at the next level and provide more of an impact than James Morgan for their respective teams unless Sam gets hurt.    John Hightower is Robby Anderson 2.0 and a returner to boot.  Joe Reed is a multipurpose threat as a receiver, runner and returner that will be helping some team year in a variety of ways.    In fact I would not be surprised if AGG is the true sleeper pick of the draft and he didn't go until the 7th round.   Time will tell if I am right or wrong, but this is how I see it.  If that doesn't sit well with you that is fine.  

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1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

I read somewhere that Buffalo was going to take him, but we did first. So they went with Fromm.

I mentioned this somewhere... the Jets took Morgan with their second fourth rounder, just three picks ahead of the Bills who, like you said, took Fromm in the following round. So they were obviously thinking QB and they could’ve easily been thinking Morgan. And maybe JD had an inkling, which might be why he didn’t wait until his last fourth round pick to make the move. 

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9 hours ago, PCP63 said:

We don't need depth at QB right now. QB depth is for teams that have a chance at contention. The Pats needed a good backup. The Jets don't. If Sam goes down, we have zero chance anyways. Yes, backup QB is an important position, but WR was a much bigger need at the time.

I don't agree with this at all.

Even in this narrow scenario, the time to be able to confidently rely on your backup, to be able to win more than he loses for a stretch, is not first when the backup is a mid (or lower) round rookie (and hold off on adding a QB2 all offseason until the draft, to then pigeonhole the team into what is now a must-draft position).=. 

The same rationale could be used at any other position like WR. Is a second rookie WR (which I'd have welcomed) likely to make this team a contender? Hardly; how often are there a pair of productive rookie WR starters on the same team? Then next year - when we're presumably contenders - instead of waiting until the draft to find a rookie QB2, the team would then more likely sink $6MM+ on a more seasoned, reliable backup?

Plus there's that other thingDarnold hasn't exactly been a consistent superstar himself. He hasn't played without surrounding hardships, but he didn't crush it against everyone in a season where we played mostly terrible defenses.  

It's hard enough to thread the needle with an early pick, which a QB2 selection won't be next year. That's even harder when you're limiting yourself to the second half of the draft, when the late-round QB success % is in/around single digits (if you're even lucky enough to be the only team to get the one available later QB prospect who panned out). 

At first, because of the shock of it (and because I don't know who these guys are anyway) so just based on position I was like wtf? Since then I've already warmed up to the pick.

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't agree with this at all.

Even in this narrow scenario, the time to be able to confidently rely on your backup, to be able to win more than he loses for a stretch, is not first when the backup is a mid (or lower) round rookie (and hold off on adding a QB2 all offseason until the draft, to then pigeonhole the team into what is now a must-draft position).=. 

The same rationale could be used at any other position like WR. Is a second rookie WR (which I'd have welcomed) likely to make this team a contender? Hardly; how often are there a pair of productive rookie WR starters on the same team? Then next year - when we're presumably contenders - instead of waiting until the draft to find a rookie QB2, the team would then more likely sink $6MM+ on a more seasoned, reliable backup?

Plus there's that other thingDarnold hasn't exactly been a consistent superstar himself. He hasn't played without surrounding hardships, but he didn't crush it against everyone in a season where we played mostly terrible defenses.  

It's hard enough to thread the needle with an early pick, which a QB2 selection won't be next year. That's even harder when you're limiting yourself to the second half of the draft, when the late-round success % is in/around single digits (if you're even lucky enough to be the only team to get the one available later QB prospect who panned out). 

At first, because of the shock of it (and because I don't know who these guys are anyway) so just based on position I was like wtf? Since then I've already warmed up to the pick.

I completely agree with you. In addition, where is it written that "a franchise qb" does not need to be pushed. He too needs a fire under his back side. IMO, he wasn't taken to back up, He was taken A-as insurance in case of disaster and ,B-To push Darnold (in the future)

Just an opinion though

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43 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Here are all the receivers still on the board when we selected James Morgan:

Gabriel Davis
John Hightower
Tyler Johnson
Joe Reed
Quez Watkins
Isiah Hodgins
James Proche
AGG
Jauan Jennings

Some of them dropped even further so to be fair, other teams passed on them as well.  However, I think of that group several have the potential to develop into "stud" at their positions in the next few years.    Maybe we can say the same of Morgan, if he ever gets off the bench.  Best case scenario is we can trade him for picks if he develops into something.  

most of these guys went 6th or 7th rounds, taking them in the top of the fourth would be over drafting.  I liked Johnson, Jennings and Watkins and was hoping we d take one the 6th but we traded that second pick for a DB.

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5 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

None studs

And I don’t are, QB trumps all these bodies.  

who are they better than?  A 6th, 7th type already here?  
 

Just trust the GM and there draft he’s leading.  You don’t know more and this is beating a dead horse material
 

Well time will tell; I think their are a few "diamonds in the rough" studs on that list.  As far as beating a dead horse I was responding to someone else so that is the case you can feel free to ignore it any other references.    

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9 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

most of these guys went 6th or 7th rounds, taking them in the top of the fourth would be over drafting.  I liked Johnson, Jennings and Watkins and was hoping we d take one the 6th but we traded that second pick for a DB.

Good point. 4th might have been a bit high; really wish we could have snagged Watkins later. 

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51 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

I answered your question.

No, you didn't.  And it's really not a complicated question.

You said we skipped on a STUD.  All Caps.  I asked who the STUD was.  Typically, the next response would be a specific name.

The fact you cannot name the STUD may be all the answer we need.

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I consider Tyler Johnson, Quez Watkins guys who can have an immediate impact as receivers and yes I think they are "studs" but just need development as can be said for several other receivers that got passed on. 

Your opinion was not shared by most of the NFL, who chose to select many other WR's ahead of your STUDS. 

Johnson was a 5th rounder on a WR loaded team who will likely be on the street as a released FA or Practice Squad guy come opening day.  

Watkins was a 6th rounder.  Basically not far from being an UDFA tbqh.

We didn't miss any sure-fire can't-miss opening-day-starter STUDS. 

We skipped on late-round, 3rd tier prospects.  The same kind of prospects we can (and have) got in the UDFA pool.

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I can't answer why other teams passed on them.

Of course not.  Because the idea that maybe they're not STUDS, but developmental 3rd tier late round prospects never seemed to dawn on you.

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John Hightower is Robby Anderson 2.0 and a returner to boot.

Robby Anderson #1 was a borderline one-trick-pony #3 WR and frankly I'm glad he's gone.  We can and should do better.  A #1 WR needs materially more talent and skill than three Anderlols possess.  Only our historically pathetic roster made him such a fan favorite amongst a certain group of fans.  Robby, it should be reminded, was also not drafted and was an UDFA.  There are Robby-level talent available every cycle in that pool.

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If that doesn't sit well with you that is fine.  

Sits with me just fine.  You're weeping over late round guys materially no different than high-end UDFA guys.  You'll get over it.

We have a young QB ranked almost literally worst in the NFL after two seasons, and who has missed multiple games every year of his career so far.  Having a young talented backup behind that QB, for fill in and insurance purposes, is more important that getting a 6th round WR 

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17 hours ago, Melly-Mel said:

Competition is good, chances are he wont be great, but never say never.  Im ok with the pick.  If he becomes a formidable back up, or a trade for higher pick later on its a win,  win.  

And for now, he's a cheap backup.

We don't need to spend millions on a babysitter for Darnold.  This is a 6-7 win team next year and if he gets hurt we're f**ked regardless.

Spend that money to add talent around Darnold, not on his insurance policy that won't be any good anyways.

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36 minutes ago, Warfish said:

No, you didn't.  And it's really not a complicated question.

You said we skipped on a STUD.  All Caps.  I asked who the STUD was.  Typically, the next response would be a specific name.

The fact you cannot name the STUD may be all the answer we need.

Your opinion was not shared by most of the NFL, who chose to select many other WR's ahead of your STUDS. 

Johnson was a 5th rounder on a WR loaded team who will likely be on the street as a released FA or Practice Squad guy come opening day.  

Watkins was a 6th rounder.  Basically not far from being an UDFA tbqh.

We didn't miss any sure-fire can't-miss opening-day-starter STUDS. 

We skipped on late-round, 3rd tier prospects.  The same kind of prospects we can (and have) got in the UDFA pool.

Of course not.  Because the idea that maybe they're not STUDS, but developmental 3rd tier late round prospects never seemed to dawn on you.

Robby Anderson #1 was a borderline one-trick-pony #3 WR and frankly I'm glad he's gone.  We can and should do better.  A #1 WR needs materially more talent and skill than three Anderlols possess.  Only our historically pathetic roster made him such a fan favorite amongst a certain group of fans.  Robby, it should be reminded, was also not drafted and was an UDFA.  There are Robby-level talent available every cycle in that pool.

Sits with me just fine.  You're weeping over late round guys materially no different than high-end UDFA guys.  You'll get over it.

We have a young QB ranked almost literally worst in the NFL after two seasons, and who has missed multiple games every year of his career so far.  Having a young talented backup behind that QB, for fill in and insurance purposes, is more important that getting a 6th round WR 

Okay.  Have a nice day.   

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22 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

BB said today that the Pats intended to take a QB, but the board didn’t fall into place. I’m convinced the Jets too the QB the Pats intended to take.

agree. But I also think Jets knew they had to get a smart legit 'can start someday QB in case Sam out a few games of god forbid down the road he out a large chunk of time some day. if we had a decent fill-in last year it turns out we may have been in playoff race late December? Very smart pick that other smart coaches were eyeing. I think he was Pats next pick, just like we snoozed and lost out on Hennessey thinking we would get him 11 picks later by taking Davis the safety. I think the Davis had better chance of being there 10 picks later (when we took Zuniga), BUT who knows,,after draft we hear scouts saying lots of teams had the Davis  rated way higher than the TV scouts we have to listen to.. But in Douglas we trust, maybe he didnt want Hennessey and he wanted Davis and Zuniga all along? No one will ever know except Douglas and his staff

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So tell us, who and when would YOU have picked WR's?

Gabriel Davis

Antonio Golden-Gandy

Joe Reed

Tyler Johnson

Colin Johnson

John Hightower

Darnell Mooney

Donavan Peoples-Jones

James Proche

Isiah Hodgins

Juan Jennings

All guys picked after the QB.

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45 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And for now, he's a cheap backup.

We don't need to spend millions on a babysitter for Darnold.  This is a 6-7 win team next year and if he gets hurt we're f**ked regardless.

Spend that money to add talent around Darnold, not on his insurance policy that won't be any good anyways.

This.

Face it everyone, this management and head coach are not married to Darnold. Yes, he has lots of promise and we all hope that he becomes our FQB.

the facts are this. He's played for 2 years and not only has he been inconsistent, he's also been injury prone somewhat.

Management did the responsible thing. They chose a guy they think can be not only a long term clip board holder, but also the guy that has the physical and mental skill set to play QB in the NFL when called upon to do so.

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Exactly which veteran backup? They all pretty much suck and cost a lot of money. That path blows. Always has always will. Yeah every once in a while something like Foles happens but they are so few and far between its not even worth pursuing. 

We'll see what you say if Darnold gets injured and Morgan or Fales has to play. I like Matt Moore who would not cost a ton of money and has experience. 

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20 hours ago, Mackman55 said:

He certainly doesn't have perfect mechanics(lower body) and he definitely can't hold the ball so low before he throws. On the other hand has good mobility and throws the ball on the move very well keeping his eyes downfield when he's forced from the pocket. He has all the tools needed to succeed if he gets a year of good coaching.

 

He's Gardner Mishew III

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