The Athletic Big Board team draft rankings

[prime21]

Article from The Athletic 

https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/?source=dailyemail

So let’s project for 2020. Here, we calculated the expected value each team earned on the pick and subtracted the capital of the pick, using an equation that weighs the value of the team’s selections (capital) against the draftees’ rankings in the Consensus Big Board (value). We also take into account positional needs — if a team, for example, drafts a running back because he’s the highest-ranked player on the board but then never plays that running back because there are five better ones on the roster, that wasn’t a good pick. (For more information on how we arrived at the capital and value numbers, check out last year’s article.) Most teams ended up over 100 percent in the return on investment column because the positional need calculation gave them boosts, which means that some teams that graded poorly in other draft class rankings still ended up net positive in value here — just not as positive as the other teams around them.

Here’s how teams did:

2020 Consensus Big Board Draft Rankings

RANK	TEAM	CAPITAL	VALUE	NET	ROI
1	Arizona	4242.5	6104.6	1862.1	143.90%
2	Buffalo	3229.5	4632.1	1402.7	143.40%
3	Dallas	4705.8	6731.9	2026.1	143.10%
4	Cleveland	5431.8	7091.7	1659.8	130.60%
5	Baltimore	6194.1	7926.7	1732.6	128.00%
6	Tampa Bay	4478.6	5504	1025.4	122.90%
7	Cincinnati	6614.4	8119	1504.5	122.70%
8	N.Y. Jets	6447.7	7820.7	1373	121.30%
9	Minnesota	7618.5	9152.6	1534.1	120.10%
10	Denver	6241.8	7494.5	1252.7	120.10%
11	Carolina	5474.8	6430.5	955.7	117.50%
12	Houston	3079.7	3617.1	537.4	117.40%
13	N.Y. Giants	5933.4	6897.1	963.6	116.20%
14	Tennessee	3522.2	4091.8	569.6	116.20%
15	Philadelphia	5262.6	6045	782.4	114.90%
16	Washington	5710.3	6530.5	820.2	114.40%
17	L.A. Rams	4273.5	4849.6	576.1	113.50%
18	New Orleans	2915.5	3302.4	386.9	113.30%
19	L.A. Chargers	4962.7	5543.9	581.2	111.70%
20	San Francisco	3905.2	4253.7	348.5	108.90%
21	Detroit	6902	7329.2	427.2	106.20%
22	Miami	9583.6	10121.4	537.9	105.60%
23	Las Vegas	6336.3	6686.6	350.2	105.50%
24	Jacksonville	8165.9	8581.3	415.4	105.10%
25	Pittsburgh	3056.5	3060	3.5	100.10%
26	Indianapolis	4916.5	4841.2	-75.2	98.50%
27	Kansas City	3692.4	3633.3	-59.1	98.40%
28	Chicago	3564.7	3304.2	-260.5	92.70%
29	Green Bay	4317.8	3805	-512.7	88.10%
30	Atlanta	4548.3	3904.9	-643.4	85.90%
31	New England	5453.3	4454.6	-998.8	81.70%
32	Seattle	4842.2	3498.2	-1343.9	72.20%

That mostly aligns with grades around the media landscape, though there are significant differences for Indianapolis, Minnesota and Jacksonville on the negative end and more favorable scores here for Philadelphia, Buffalo and Houston.

While most of the positive grades for the Colts surround the stylistic fit that wide receiver Michael Pittman provides with quarterback Philip Rivers, there’s a bit of revisionist history with some of the analysis — Pittman is considered worthy of the 34th pick in post-draft analysis, but he was the 47th-ranked player on the board. The board even agrees that Pittman isn’t a negative pick after accounting for positional value and need, but it doesn’t give the Colts high marks for it either. The board would have preferred Denzel Mims, ranked 33rd overall, in that slot. Beyond that, the Colts gained significant value with Jacob Eason and some value with Jonathan Taylor but lost quite a bit with Julian Blackmon and a little more with Danny Pinter.

Minnesota benefits both from having a high number of picks in the first two rounds and didn’t really deviate from the general draft community’s consensus in those rounds. But the back end cost them in terms of total value, grabbing players outside of the top 300 on a fairly regular basis. Every step they took forward in terms of the board was met with another step backwards. Altogether a good draft — they rank ninth — but not one the board sees as the best.

Jacksonville also had four picks in the top 100, and that tends to result in high draft grades as analysts don’t always discount the fact that it’s easier to acquire talent with more picks. Jacksonville ended up with one of the highest total value returns in the class, but also spent more than any team besides Miami. Jacksonville gained value with CJ Henderson and earned even more with K’Lavon Chaisson and Ben Bartch, but also lost value with Shaquille Quarterman, Daniel Thomas and Jake Luton, despite the bonus assigned to quarterbacks. Like Indianapolis and Minnesota, it’s not a bad draft, just not an outstandingly great one by this measure.

Philadelphia gets knocked for selecting Jalen Hurts in the second round by analysts, but the board thinks that it’s appropriate value. Obviously the reality of the situation with the Eagles is different, but the Eagles did need a quarterback — just not to start. It’s difficult to find good backups, so the calculation the board makes is slightly favorable, even though Hurts was ranked 20 spots lower than where he went. It didn’t like the Jalen Reagor pick because he was valued a round later, but they more than made up for it by selecting Prince Tega Wanogho, adding more value with John Hightwoer, Jack Driscoll and K’Von Wallace.

As for Buffalo, San Francisco and Houston, there are three different stories. Analysts were high on Buffalo’s draft but not nearly high enough — Buffalo gained value with every single pick except kicker Tyler Bass. A first-round talent in the second, a third-round talent in the fifth and a pair of fifth-round talents in the seventh highlight their draft.

Houston suffers in part for not having many picks — like New Orleans — but given the capital they had to work with, they did alright with their picks. Almost all of them gained value except Charlie Heck, who was selected 60 spots from his overall value. It’s not a spectacular draft, but it wasn’t catastrophic either — yet they were ranked 31st in the aggregate of draft grades. The board doesn’t know what the Texans should have prioritized, so it doesn’t have a take on that, but it does think that the players they selected were solid.

 

Who were the biggest steals of the draft?

PLAYER	SCHOOL	POSITION	TEAM	PICK	BOARD RANK
Josh Jones	Houston	OT	Arizona	72	29
Prince Tega Wanogho	Auburn	OT	Philadelphia	210	73
Curtis Weaver	Boise State	EDGE	Miami	164	66
Bryce Hall	Virginia	CB	N.Y. Jets	158	65
Denzel Mims	Baylor	WR	N.Y. Jets	59	33
Zack Baun	Wisconsin	LB	New Orleans	74	32
Bradlee Anae	Utah	EDGE	Dallas	179	81
Kristian Fulton	LSU	CB	Tennessee	61	28
Jedrick Wills	Alabama	OT	Cleveland	10	7
Yetur Gross-Matos	Penn State	EDGE	Carolina	38	24
Jerry Jeudy	Alabama	WR	Denver	15	8
Tristan Wirfs	Iowa	OT	Tampa Bay	13	10
Jacob Eason	Washington	QB	Indianapolis	122	77
K.J. Hill	Ohio State	WRS	L.A. Chargers	220	118
Jake Fromm	Georgia	QB	Buffalo	167	85

If some of the first-round steals surprise you, just think about what it would take to trade up from No. 15 to No. 8, as in the case of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. Generating that type of value without having to make a single phone call is pretty good. Getting the seventh-ranked player at No. 10 (as in the case of Jedrick Wills) or the 10th-ranked player at No. 13 (Tristan Wirfs) is roughly equivalent from a draft value perspective of a late first-round player going in the middle of the second, a player ranked in the 40s going in the 60s, a player in the 60s going in the 90s, etc.

And the biggest reaches:

PLAYER	SCHOOL	POSITION	TEAM	PICK	BOARD RANK
Jordyn Brooks	Texas Tech	LB	Seattle	27	84
Justin Rorhwasser	Marshall	PK	New England	159	900
Cole Kmet	Notre Dame	TE	Chicago	43	62
Blake Ferguson	LSU	LS	Miami	185	353
Jason Huntley	NM State	RBC	Detroit	172	355
Jalen Reagor	TCU	WRS	Philadelphia	21	41
Jaylinn Hawkins	California	S	Atlanta	134	263
McTelvin Agim	Arkansas	DL3T	Denver	95	151
Charlie Woerner	Georgia	TE	San Francisco	190	338
Tanner Muse	Clemson	S	Las Vegas	100	192
Josiah Deguara	Cincinnati	TE	Green Bay	94	161
Damon Arnette	Ohio State	CB	Las Vegas	19	63
Daniel Thomas	Auburn	S	Jacksonville	157	271
Tyler Bass	Georgia Southern	PK	Buffalo	188	281
Cassh Maluia	Wyoming	LB	New England	204	658

While those teams — or fans of those teams — may disagree about these being reaches, just remember that in order for someone to win the draft, someone else has to lose. Philadelphia’s emphasis on speed makes sense, but perhaps it was better to trade down a few spots than grab a player worth a second-round pick. The Packers see a system fit for Josiah Deguara, but H-backs aren’t valued much by the NFL. Jordyn Brooks is likely the best run-stopping linebacker in the class, but his ability in coverage is pure projection.

If your team did well, congratulations! If not, I’m sure the model will be wrong in some spots — it missed on Tyreek Hill, after all. We’ll find out soon enough.

 

[Scott Dierking]

I would guess that teams that have greater positional needs overall would have a higher chance grading out higher?

[flgreen]

Seems fair enough.

I saw an interview with Connor Hughes, and he seemed to like the draft pretty well.  Another point that I think Douglas did REAL WELL at is the way he maneuvered around the draft to get max value from the selections.

Got to say I'm really impressed with Douglas as a GM here.  In all honesty, I didn't voice it much, but I was very concerened about Douglas going in.  Wasn't impressed with the Kalil signing last year at all.

I've got to give Douglas a personal/professonal A+ as a GM 

What a change from the last two clowns we've had

[Lupz27]

Appreciate the effort but those charts are unreadable in that format.

[section314]

One other aspect that is very encouraging is how many times JD has mentioned the scouts and how "we" scouted this particular guy. Seems that is another thing he learned in his previous spots. Teams win. Again, the anti-Macc.?

[flgreen]

45 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I would guess that teams that have greater positional needs overall would have a higher chance grading out higher?

Yeah probably. For what it's worth Of the 10 teams  that picked before us only 3 were rated better then the Jets on this chart. Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati.

[T0mShane]

These things are always framed as “wow, these teams got some steals based on our rankings” when it’s really just “wow, our rankings sucked and we know very little.”

[Irish Jet]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

These things are always framed as “wow, these teams got some steals based on our rankings” when it’s really just “wow, our rankings sucked and we know very little.”

"After one of the worst picks in the first round I can ever remember, the Seattle Seahawks didn't draft any positions of need or draft for the future. 

Pete Carroll is proving why he didn’t make it in the NFL the first time. Not only was Bruce Irvin a reach at No. 15, the Seahawks proved they were oblivious to their madness by celebrating their selection.

As if the day wasn’t bad enough, Seattle selecting Russell Wilson, a QB that doesn’t fit their offense at all, was by far the worst move of the draft. With the two worst moves of the draft, Seattle is the only team that received an F on draft day."

- Bleacher Report on the 2012 draft

[T0mShane]

Just now, Irish Jet said:

"After one of the worst picks in the first round I can ever remember, the Seattle Seahawks didn't draft any positions of need or draft for the future. 

Pete Carroll is proving why he didn’t make it in the NFL the first time. Not only was Bruce Irvin a reach at No. 15, the Seahawks proved they were oblivious to their madness by celebrating their selection.

As if the day wasn’t bad enough, Seattle selecting Russell Wilson, a QB that doesn’t fit their offense at all, was by far the worst move of the draft. With the two worst moves of the draft, Seattle is the only team that received an F on draft day."

- Bleacher Report on the 2012 draft

Gotta be Matt Miller

[HawkeyeJet]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

These things are always framed as “wow, these teams got some steals based on our rankings” when it’s really just “wow, our rankings sucked and we know very little.”

Normally I agree, but these are aggregate rankings of 60 individual sources, most not affiliated with the site that wrote this article.

It's not perfect(obviously) but of all of these million grading articles, it's probably one of the least biased.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Normally I agree, but these are aggregate rankings of 60 individual sources, most not affiliated with the site that wrote this article.

It's not perfect(obviously) but of all of these million grading articles, it's probably one of the least biased.

IMO, the problem is that all of these rankings end up being aggregators anyway. They all putz around for nine months of the year and wait for Kiper/McShay/Jeremiah-types, who actually have sourcing, to put out their top-100 or whatever, then they just crib that info, make some minor changes to wording, then present it as though they were out beating the bushes scouting any of these guys. Of those 60 sources, maybe two of them could watch a college football game featuring non-FBS ranked teams and tell you which of those players, if any, are NFL caliber without having prior knowledge of those players. It’s a racket. So, the rankings they produce emanate from the same two or three guys every year.

[kdels62]

16 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Gotta be Matt Miller

Dude is the biggest hack on the internet. It makes sense that he’s a Jets fan since his hit rate is about the same as our GMs.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

Dude is the biggest hack on the internet. It makes sense that he’s a Jets fan since his hit rate is about the same as our GMs.

Is he really a Jets fan? I had no idea. 

[HawkeyeJet]

31 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

IMO, the problem is that all of these rankings end up being aggregators anyway. They all putz around for nine months of the year and wait for Kiper/McShay/Jeremiah-types, who actually have sourcing, to put out their top-100 or whatever, then they just crib that info, make some minor changes to wording, then present it as though they were out beating the bushes scouting any of these guys. Of those 60 sources, maybe two of them could watch a college football game featuring non-FBS ranked teams and tell you which of those players, if any, are NFL caliber without having prior knowledge of those players. It’s a racket. So, the rankings they produce emanate from the same two or three guys every year.

That's a very good point.  I made a rather tongue in cheek comment in a thread about Michael Pittman about how it's just so coincidental that everyone from the McShay/Kiper/Jeremiahs of the world to the amateur draft "tape watchers" all have the exact same people rising and same people falling at the same time pre draft.  Their film reviews must be done in unison.

[Doggin94it]

53 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

These things are always framed as “wow, these teams got some steals based on our rankings” when it’s really just “wow, our rankings sucked and we know very little.”

Yep. I mean, it's one thing to say a guy drafted a round or so below your projections in the early parts of the draft was a value, since teams weight positional need heavier at the top and other teams are only passing on him once. 

It's another thing to have a guy you ranked as a borderline 2d round pick (Tega Wanogho, 73) get drafted at 210 and insist that's huge value because the entire NFL disagreed with how you ranked him. 

[Doggin94it]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Normally I agree, but these are aggregate rankings of 60 individual sources, most not affiliated with the site that wrote this article.

It's not perfect(obviously) but of all of these million grading articles, it's probably one of the least biased.

Aside from Tom's point, the draft itself is a true aggregate ranking. 32 NFL GMs passed on Prince in the fourth round, the fifth round, and sixth round, some multiple multiple times. At that point in the draft, nobody who has him ranked as a late second early third round pick is passing on him. So the NFL did not value that player as a second or third-round pick. And it's not like he dropped because of injury, so it's not a "could be a great value pick if he comes back healthy" argument. 

Bottom line, the thing with analyses like this is that at a certain point, the more excess value the player has based on how far below where you ranked him he was drafted, the less likely it is is that your ranking was correct and therefore the less likely it is that he was a particular value at all.

[Doggin94it]

The funny thing is, that issue only works in one direction. Was Damon Arnette a reach? The draft won't tell us. We know that he was taken ahead of where he was projected to go by various rankings in websites, but the fact that the Raiders took him at 19 doesn't tell us anything about where the NFL as a whole had him ranked. It's entirely possible that 31 other GM's viewed him as a late 2nd rounder. It's also possible that multiple other teams had him as the third cornerback on their board and a first-round pick. There's no way to know

[slats]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

These things are always framed as “wow, these teams got some steals based on our rankings” when it’s really just “wow, our rankings sucked and we know very little.”

Doesn’t make their board’s ranking of the Cheats’ new PK any less hilarious. 

[jetstream23]

 

Crazy!  The Top 7 "Steals" were ALL guys that we've been talking about extensively.  I'll go to the grave pounding the table that Zack Baun should have been the pick at #68, and seeing both OT Jones and Wanogho last so long does raise a very fair question about whether an approach of WR first then double-dipping at OT would have been better.

Jeudy, Ruggs or Lamb at #11 would have let the Jets take BOTH of those OTs later.  BUT, it was a risk, right?  First, we don't know if either is starting caliber....at least in Year 1.  Becton is closer to being on the field than either of those guys by a decent margin.

It's nuts that Joe D pulled off what he did in terms of value at positions of need.  He played the board almost perfectly.  Players he wanted + at positions of need + getting them later than expected = Masterclass drafting.  But man.... Baun at #68 and the Jets are sitting on 3 legit steals in this table!

 

[Jetsfan80]

We got 2 of the top 5 steals according to these (flawed) rankings!  

 

Who were the biggest steals of the draft?

PLAYER	SCHOOL	POSITION	TEAM	PICK	BOARD RANK
Josh Jones	Houston	OT	Arizona	72	29
Prince Tega Wanogho	Auburn	OT	Philadelphia	210	73
Curtis Weaver	Boise State	EDGE	Miami	164	66
Bryce Hall	Virginia	CB	N.Y. Jets	158	65
Denzel Mims	Baylor	WR	N.Y. Jets	59	33

[Losmeister]

its always nice tgo be ranked high in SOMETHING...   i guess...

[jetstream23]

Question - What does the positions RBC mean?  Is that a RB by Committee type guy?  I notice The Athletic seems to use more specific position designations here.

 

Statement - How cool is it that "reaches" by NE for a kicker and Buffalo for a kicker were listed..... but Jets Punter Braden Mann was NOT a reach?!?!?

[TheMo]

5 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

Crazy!  The Top 7 "Steals" were ALL guys that we've been talking about extensively.  I'll go to the grave pounding the table that Zack Baun should have been the pick at #68, and seeing both OT Jones and Wanogho last so long does raise a very fair question about whether an approach of WR first then double-dipping at OT would have been better.

Jeudy, Ruggs or Lamb at #11 would have let the Jets take BOTH of those OTs later.  BUT, it was a risk, right?  First, we don't know if either is starting caliber....at least in Year 1.  Becton is closer to being on the field than either of those guys by a decent margin.

It's nuts that Joe D pulled off what he did in terms of value at positions of need.  He played the board almost perfectly.  Players he wanted + at positions of need + getting them later than expected = Masterclass drafting.  But man.... Baun at #68 and the Jets are sitting on 3 legit steals in this table!

 

I will reiterate my stance here. The drop off from Becton to Jones was much more significant than Jeudy to Mims. I imagine @RobR and @Paradis likely have thoughts on this, but it was my general feeling from watching/reading about all these prospects. 

[RobR]

30 minutes ago, TheMo said:

I will reiterate my stance here. The drop off from Becton to Jones was much more significant than Jeudy to Mims. I imagine @RobR and @Paradis likely have thoughts on this, but it was my general feeling from watching/reading about all these prospects. 

It's the biggest reason why we needed to go OT in the first round because you could get great WR's later on and I did see a huge drop-off with the tackle position even though it was a strong overall class. I'm a bit pissed that the Giants got Peart but after we selected the best OT in the class I'd have to think he was off of our board.

And Mims will be better than Jeudy......I was never a big fan of Jeudy. After this draft I feel like I'm living in this world:

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, TheMo said:

I will reiterate my stance here. The drop off from Becton to Jones was much more significant than Jeudy to Mims. I imagine @RobR and @Paradis likely have thoughts on this, but it was my general feeling from watching/reading about all these prospects. 

 

51 minutes ago, RobR said:

It's the biggest reason why we needed to go OT in the first round because you could get great WR's later on and I did see a huge drop-off with the tackle position even though it was a strong overall class. I'm a bit pissed that the Giants got Peart but after we selected the best OT in the class I'd have to think he was off of our board.

And Mims will be better than Jeudy......I was never a big fan of Jeudy. After this draft I feel like I'm living in this world:

 

Ha!  Good stuff.

I honestly wouldn't have changed at thing in the first two rounds of the Jets Draft.  It was a win-win and asking for anything more would be greedy.  I had no scenario, mock draft or otherwise, except for a crazy expensive trade up in Round 2 that got us BOTH a Top 4 OT and a WR like Mims.

Becton - Mims is better than Jeudy - Jones, Lamb - Jones (oh, the irony!), or Ruggs - Jones.  But the double dip of something like Josh Jones and Wanogho, or Jones and Matt Peart is an interesting thing to consider.

[Vader]

10 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

"After one of the worst picks in the first round I can ever remember, the Seattle Seahawks didn't draft any positions of need or draft for the future. 

Pete Carroll is proving why he didn’t make it in the NFL the first time. Not only was Bruce Irvin a reach at No. 15, the Seahawks proved they were oblivious to their madness by celebrating their selection.

As if the day wasn’t bad enough, Seattle selecting Russell Wilson, a QB that doesn’t fit their offense at all, was by far the worst move of the draft. With the two worst moves of the draft, Seattle is the only team that received an F on draft day."

- Bleacher Report on the 2012 draft

Cray cray. Cray cray cray cray. Cray!

[Mavericknyc1980]

On 4/28/2020 at 10:40 AM, kdels62 said:

Dude is the biggest hack on the internet. It makes sense that he’s a Jets fan since his hit rate is about the same as our GMs.

Matt Miller is a 9ers fan.

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

On 4/28/2020 at 10:42 AM, T0mShane said:

Is he really a Jets fan? I had no idea. 

No, he’s not.  That would be Conner Rodgers.

[32EBoozer]

On 4/28/2020 at 12:42 PM, jetstream23 said:

 

Crazy!  The Top 7 "Steals" were ALL guys that we've been talking about extensively.  I'll go to the grave pounding the table that Zack Baun should have been the pick at #68, and seeing both OT Jones and Wanogho last so long does raise a very fair question about whether an approach of WR first then double-dipping at OT would have been better.

Jeudy, Ruggs or Lamb at #11 would have let the Jets take BOTH of those OTs later.  BUT, it was a risk, right?  First, we don't know if either is starting caliber....at least in Year 1.  Becton is closer to being on the field than either of those guys by a decent margin.

It's nuts that Joe D pulled off what he did in terms of value at positions of need.  He played the board almost perfectly.  Players he wanted + at positions of need + getting them later than expected = Masterclass drafting.  But man.... Baun at #68 and the Jets are sitting on 3 legit steals in this table!

 

I think you need to look at what the ceiling of your picks will be. Prince and Josh Jones don't have nearly the same off the chart athletic ability and Becton. At the #11 pick you're searching for All-Pro LT not settling for starting LG in 2-3 years.  I'm good with how the draft played out considering we got a #1 W/R in middle-late 2nd round.

[Chrebetfan80]

On 4/28/2020 at 12:42 PM, jetstream23 said:

 

Crazy!  The Top 7 "Steals" were ALL guys that we've been talking about extensively.  I'll go to the grave pounding the table that Zack Baun should have been the pick at #68, and seeing both OT Jones and Wanogho last so long does raise a very fair question about whether an approach of WR first then double-dipping at OT would have been better.

Jeudy, Ruggs or Lamb at #11 would have let the Jets take BOTH of those OTs later.  BUT, it was a risk, right?  First, we don't know if either is starting caliber....at least in Year 1.  Becton is closer to being on the field than either of those guys by a decent margin.

It's nuts that Joe D pulled off what he did in terms of value at positions of need.  He played the board almost perfectly.  Players he wanted + at positions of need + getting them later than expected = Masterclass drafting.  But man.... Baun at #68 and the Jets are sitting on 3 legit steals in this table!

 

Baun was a guy I really liked at that spot, i thought it would have made a lot of sense for the jets too. Player that had a higher grade falls due to a failed test, good production, really good school. In the third i thought it was just too much value to pass up.  But i can understand if as a GM youre not comfortable with the positive test being a diluted sample and not wanting to go that route.  

Anae at that spot in the draft I liked too, although I was not very high on the player overall.  He had a standout senior bowl applying consistent pressure, but all he profiled to me was a good first step in that game and had to do very little hand work or passrush moves in order to apply pressure.  Plus athletically he didnt profile at all with the way JD was looking to go.  Factor that in as he was predominantly a right side rusher and hadn't shown much versatility, I understood why he fell that much.  

[#27TheDominator]

On 4/28/2020 at 10:37 AM, T0mShane said:

IMO, the problem is that all of these rankings end up being aggregators anyway. They all putz around for nine months of the year and wait for Kiper/McShay/Jeremiah-types, who actually have sourcing, to put out their top-100 or whatever, then they just crib that info, make some minor changes to wording, then present it as though they were out beating the bushes scouting any of these guys. Of those 60 sources, maybe two of them could watch a college football game featuring non-FBS ranked teams and tell you which of those players, if any, are NFL caliber without having prior knowledge of those players. It’s a racket. So, the rankings they produce emanate from the same two or three guys every year.

Agree with 2 caveats

1. It is actually much easier to see which guys are NFL talent on non-ranked teams.  When you are watching Alabama who the **** can tell which of those guys is a 1st rounder and which is Saivion Smith.

2. I agree that people crib off the big boys, but sometimes there are valid reasons.  We can all watch the players have opinions of varying validity on their play.  The guys with real sources can tell what the coaches are saying about guys practice habits, what scouts thought (particularly at places like the senior bowl), what the medicals said, and have more info on character concerns and drug tests.

For instance, I'm pretty sure that two of the reaches, the tackle from Auburn had significant medical concerns and didn't Baun test positive at the combine?  Those guys probably knew that stuff way before us.  I know that read those kind of blurbs from them.

I have told the story before, but during the 2016 pro day season I flew into Tallahassee with a bunch of coaches and scouts headed to Florida State's pro day.  They were extremely candid with each other.  Hearing them talk about Bud Dupree was pretty funny.  If you were able to sit with those guys in a hotel bar you'd get a hell of a lot of information.

[section314]

12 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Agree with 2 caveats

1. It is actually much easier to see which guys are NFL talent on non-ranked teams.  When you are watching Alabama who the **** can tell which of those guys is a 1st rounder and which is Saivion Smith.

2. I agree that people crib off the big boys, but sometimes there are valid reasons.  We can all watch the players have opinions of varying validity on their play.  The guys with real sources can tell what the coaches are saying about guys practice habits, what scouts thought (particularly at places like the senior bowl), what the medicals said, and have more info on character concerns and drug tests.

For instance, I'm pretty sure that two of the reaches, the tackle from Auburn had significant medical concerns and didn't Baun test positive at the combine?  Those guys probably knew that stuff way before us.  I know that read those kind of blurbs from them.

I have told the story before, but during the 2016 pro day season I flew into Tallahassee with a bunch of coaches and scouts headed to Florida State's pro day.  They were extremely candid with each other.  Hearing them talk about Bud Dupree was pretty funny.  If you were able to sit with those guys in a hotel bar you'd get a hell of a lot of information.

Good or bad?

[#27TheDominator]

11 hours ago, section314 said:

Good or bad?

Mostly it was just Jay Hayes the DLine coach for the Bengals and Clarence Brooks (RIP) the DLine coach from the Ravens talking about running Dupree through drills  Apparently on one of the mirror drills Dupree screwed up and popped Hayes a big shot.  Some guys were asking where he was going, 2nd or 1st and those two looked at them incredulously and said "oh he's going in the first, question is how high." 

There were a bunch of other guys, but the only other one who I remember by name was Don Bosco Prep's own Brian Gaine, who was a front office guy with the Texans at the time.  He was with the Jets as a player and scout under Parcells and Bradway.   I think he's with the Bills now.  Nice guy.  He also found the coach talk pretty amusing. Those guys were certainly clowning.   Did seem to be a little differentiation between the suits and the polo shirt guys.