The Year 3 Jump is rare for a QB

[kdels62]

He doesn’t need a leap. He needs to continue to improve. If plays 16 games next year he’ll probably end up near 3800 yards, 26 TDs and 13 Ints. That ain’t a bad place to be especially if the running game improves. 

[slimjasi]

[Philc1]

57 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

He doesn’t need a leap. He needs to continue to improve. If plays 16 games next year he’ll probably end up near 3800 yards, 26 TDs and 13 Ints. That ain’t a bad place to be especially if the running game improves. 

This

[Greensleeves]

1 hour ago, mudcat22 said:

At some point people have to stop making excuses and Darnold has to actually live up to his high ceiling. 

You think having the 31st offensive line and no great weapons and losing his tight end is an excuse? His INTs were often caused by all of these things. It's a miracle he went 7-6 with that awful situation. 

[Dcat]

4 hours ago, JetFan20 said:

Only recent examples I can think of is Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford 

Brees-Actually his fourth season in NFL, but third year starting. He started his career on a really bad team (like Sam) and broke out when his team got better.

Stafford-Only started 13 games in NFL due to injury, but was largely ineffective. He broke out with Calvin Johnson in his third year. 

Outside of that there haven’t been a lot of examples of a Year 3 leap recently:

There are guys like Alex Smith who improved in year 5 and 6 

Also guys like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston who regressed in year 3 after solid year 2.

Sam will definitely be an outlier if he does breakout in Year 3. Typically the big jump has taken place from Year 1 to Year 2 (Goff/Wentz). 
 

But how many of them got mono and missed a huge chunk of the season especially early on when you need to gel with everyone around you? Sam's situation is unique.  But thanks for the stats. 

[kelticwizard]

2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

The Jets weren't even the worst offensive line of 2019.

Second worst according to Football Outsiders.

Fifth worst according to PFF.

[ZachEY]

Just now, kelticwizard said:

Third worst according to Football Outsiders.

Fifth worst according to PFF.

Yup.  No debating it was bad.  By "worst of all time" is Darnold Fanfic.

[Jets723]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Yup.  No debating it was bad.  By "worst of all time" is Darnold Fanfic.

Yes But we agree it was one of the worst last year.  Also factor in the lack of weapons.  Having both an awful oline and no big weapons  is an uphill battle for any QB.  

[Vader]

4 hours ago, nico002 said:

 Sam Darnold is already the best player on the team. If you are talking about gaudy stats, well lets give him average protection instead of the worst in NFL history. 

 

I mean, Jamal Adams is an All-Pro but nevermind that 

[TexJet]

Darnold sucks, woe is me, team can't draft, GM is a moron, coach is a douche. Miss anything?

[Jetworks]

2 hours ago, mudcat22 said:

At some point people have to stop making excuses and Darnold has to actually live up to his high ceiling. 

None of those are 'made', they actually were things that happened. But hey, I'm now on the NO EXCUSES bandwagon, because NO EXCUSES!!!! AMIRITE!?!?!?!?!?

[Dunnie]

 Sam Darnold is already the best player on the team. If you are talking about gaudy stats, well lets give him average protection instead of the worst in NFL history. 
 

Jamal is easily the best player on the team.

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[DetroitRed]

Daily reminder Sam is younger than Burrow.  

[usanyj]

3 minutes ago, Jetworks said:

None of those are 'made', they actually were things that happened. But hey, I'm now on the NO EXCUSES bandwagon, because NO EXCUSES!!!! AMIRITE!?!?!?!?!?

I still think more needs to be done to support him. The bills are doing their best to surround Allen with weapons. The broncos are doing the same for lock. I think the jury is out on Perriman, 5 game hot streak over the course of his career. Has he turned a corner? Hopefully, but who knows. Crowder is a nice slot guy. And as much as I love Mims, he’s a rookie. Hopefully Herndon can stay on the field. But by no means have we done enough to elevate sam weapons wise. 

[pdxgreen]

If they would have asked Joe back in the day, if he could... "made the jump?" He would have just laughed in their faces.

.

[Doggin94it]

1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

Yup.  No debating it was bad.  By "worst of all time" is Darnold Fanfic.

Break out those rankings by pass pro? He was under pressure on a league worst 46% of his dropbacks, so I'm wondering if those other lines (Az?) were dinged more for run blocking

[Jetty]

I no longer believe Darnold will be a superstar Aaron Rodgersesque QB I hoped he would become.

However I would be very happy if he gives us 2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick level production. I definitely believe he is capable of that this season.

[GREENBEAN]

2 hours ago, Dcat said:

But how many of them got mono and missed a huge chunk of the season especially early on when you need to gel with everyone around you? Sam's situation is unique.  But thanks for the stats. 

Nice avatar ya big lug

[RSJ]

Mono is rare for a second year QB. No two players and situations are the same. I feel like Darnold grew last year despite being on a bad offense and missing a bunch of time with mono. He also had a broken finger. We will find out this year baring injury what we have in Darnold and it could be anything. Great or bad.


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[ZachEY]

10 hours ago, Jets723 said:

Yes But we agree it was one of the worst last year.  Also factor in the lack of weapons.  Having both an awful oline and no big weapons  is an uphill battle for any QB.  

Ok, and?

[ZachEY]

9 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Break out those rankings by pass pro? He was under pressure on a league worst 46% of his dropbacks, so I'm wondering if those other lines (Az?) were dinged more for run blocking

2nd worst per FO

[British Jet]

The last two years are going to harden Darnold, and now everything will seem easy to him and he'll look great. Probably.

[neckdemon]

year 2 is usually the biggest jump. you can consider this the second half of year 2 for him....

[rangerous]

darnold was good enough to lead the team to 6-2 over the last eight.  what's to improve?  sure there are some things but what he needs most is a reliable oline and receivers.  then maybe he won't feel the need to throw off his back foot and make better passing and running decisions.

[Philc1]

10 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

Daily reminder Sam is younger than Burrow.  

With more upside

[Jet Nut]

You left out Luck, his breakout year was year 3.  While most, like Big Ben gradually get better, stat wise.  
Like most QBs

[RevisIsland610]

As long as Darnold gets average protection he will have a good to very good year. I'm thinking 30td/15int 4000 yards. 

[slats]

1 minute ago, RevisIsland610 said:

As long as Darnold gets average protection he will have a good to very good year. I'm thinking 30td/15int 4000 yards. 

Statistically, that would be the best season for a QB in Jets' history. And I agree that it's definitely within reach. 

[68JET11]

16 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

The thing is, Darnold doesn't need to make a huge jump in how he plays, he just needs to play the same way he is now, but with better protection. 

As this piece points out, in games where Darnold gets even league average pass pro (34% pressure rate) rather than league worst (46% last year), he's 7-1 with a phase rating of over 100.

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/every_throw_graded_ultimate_scouting_report_of_jets_sam_darnold/s1_13132_31475993

 

I get some people are down on Darnold, but the traits are there. When he has time he's never laser focused on his first read. I think that's his best attribute. I get he's thrown some horrible passes, but so does everyone now and then. I just believe his youth and trying to get something done was the reason for that. If he has more time this year I think we'll see a marked improvement. All he needs the OL to do this year is run-block effectively and give him another 1-2 seconds on pass blocking and I bet we'll see a different Darnold. That and if Gase can somehow call a good game plan.

[playtowinthegame]

16 hours ago, Jetlife33 said:

I’ve used this before courtesy of @bla bla bla, Like I said expect a similar jump along with the hope he plays a full 16 this time. I think the numbers I mentioned of 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns is a pretty reachable and reasonable expectation/goal. 

And to think he could make that kinda jump with poor play from the OL unit, sans consistent weapons, and coming off mono. SMH...he's just scratching the surface. I think we'll see another jump when football resumes.

[y2k8]

18 hours ago, JetFan20 said:

Only recent examples I can think of is Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford 

Brees-Actually his fourth season in NFL, but third year starting. He started his career on a really bad team (like Sam) and broke out when his team got better.

Stafford-Only started 13 games in NFL due to injury, but was largely ineffective. He broke out with Calvin Johnson in his third year. 

Outside of that there haven’t been a lot of examples of a Year 3 leap recently:

There are guys like Alex Smith who improved in year 5 and 6 

Also guys like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston who regressed in year 3 after solid year 2.

Sam will definitely be an outlier if he does breakout in Year 3. Typically the big jump has taken place from Year 1 to Year 2 (Goff/Wentz). 
 

I reject your hypothesis.

[Ian Fleming]

I think our expectations need to be severely tempered. The pandemic will affect team and player performance across the league.

Player training and exercise standards will be below average, coaching staffs will not be able to train the players to their schemes. 
 

the teams with the fewest personnel and coaching changes will probably do better this year. Doesn’t look promising for the Jets.

[PCP63]

18 hours ago, nico002 said:

 Sam Darnold is already the best player on the team. If you are talking about gaudy stats, well lets give him average protection instead of the worst in NFL history. 

 

You can't be serious. He's better than Adams? Get the hell out of here.

[ChuckkieB]

Darnold improved from year 1 to year 2 despite a terrible offensive line and an unforeseen illness.  These aren't excuses. These are facts.  I expect a similar jump in performance from year 2 to year 3, and with an improved team around him, perhaps an even bigger leap into the top 10 QB many of us thought he would be.

[PCP63]

17 hours ago, PepPep said:

Well I don't nec. expect a statistical LEAP. I want to see improvement in his decision making. I want to see more wins. I want him to become a better overall QB. His stats should improve because of that. Jets did a lot to improve the O-line, overall defense and added weapons around him. 

As far as his numbers...

As a rookie with a weak O-line and not great WRs: 57.7%, 2,865yrds, 17TDs, 15INTs (sacked 30 times)

Last year with an abysmal O-line and not great WRs he improved: 61.9%, 3,024yrds, 19TD,13INTs (sacked 33 times) 

He's a young QB with a gun-slinger type mentality so considering that I don't think his INTs will go down much. I expect something closer to the following:

I think his yards will go up significantly, especially if he plays all 16 games: over 4,000 yards.

I think his TDs go up but not nearly as much. This offense is just not quite there to be scoring like some of the high octane passing offenses around the league: 26 TDs. 

I think his INTs will drop because he will have better protection and a better run game but he will still throw around 8-12 INTs.

I think the completion %, based on the above stats should go up, just below 70%. 

So is that a year 3 LEAP? Is that a JUMP? I dunno. I think for a 22 year old QB its definitely improvement and really good news for Jets fans. I think this kind of play from Sam should lead to some more wins than we had last year. Possibly even a playoff berth depending on how well our defense plays. Isn't that what really matters? 

I don't quite think it's accurate to mention his gun-slinger mentality when discussing his INTs. Most of his INTs weren't because of him making risky throws, rather bad decisions.