CurtMart Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 19 hours ago, JetFan20 said: Only recent examples I can think of is Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford Brees-Actually his fourth season in NFL, but third year starting. He started his career on a really bad team (like Sam) and broke out when his team got better. Stafford-Only started 13 games in NFL due to injury, but was largely ineffective. He broke out with Calvin Johnson in his third year. Outside of that there haven’t been a lot of examples of a Year 3 leap recently: There are guys like Alex Smith who improved in year 5 and 6 Also guys like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston who regressed in year 3 after solid year 2. Sam will definitely be an outlier if he does breakout in Year 3. Typically the big jump has taken place from Year 1 to Year 2 (Goff/Wentz). Sam had everything working against him in year 2. There’s a reason Jets offense managed just 9 points in the 3 games Sam was out. And we were still healthy back then. It only got worse as the season went on while Sam got better after the 2 “ghost” games against Pats n Jags. Why do you think Jets have as many as 4 new starters on OL? Robby was our #1 WR. Not like much has changed there though but point being, we had an NFL worse OL and maybe even the WR group. Sam will get better by simply having a better OL as he showed plenty of promise last year when he had time to throw. A “leap” would mean a 5k season with 30 TDs. I’m not that optimistic but I do expect a 4k season with 25 TDs or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Schroy Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 19 hours ago, JetFan20 said: Only recent examples I can think of is Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford Brees-Actually his fourth season in NFL, but third year starting. He started his career on a really bad team (like Sam) and broke out when his team got better. Stafford-Only started 13 games in NFL due to injury, but was largely ineffective. He broke out with Calvin Johnson in his third year. Outside of that there haven’t been a lot of examples of a Year 3 leap recently: There are guys like Alex Smith who improved in year 5 and 6 Also guys like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston who regressed in year 3 after solid year 2. Sam will definitely be an outlier if he does breakout in Year 3. Typically the big jump has taken place from Year 1 to Year 2 (Goff/Wentz). Oh nooooooooooooo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Schroy Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 18 hours ago, TeddEY said: The Jets weren't even the worst offensive line of 2019. I think they were 2nd to worst. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 The f*cking state of these threads OP keeps posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lounap23 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 19 hours ago, JetFan20 said: Only recent examples I can think of is Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford Brees-Actually his fourth season in NFL, but third year starting. He started his career on a really bad team (like Sam) and broke out when his team got better. Stafford-Only started 13 games in NFL due to injury, but was largely ineffective. He broke out with Calvin Johnson in his third year. Outside of that there haven’t been a lot of examples of a Year 3 leap recently: There are guys like Alex Smith who improved in year 5 and 6 Also guys like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston who regressed in year 3 after solid year 2. Sam will definitely be an outlier if he does breakout in Year 3. Typically the big jump has taken place from Year 1 to Year 2 (Goff/Wentz). The reality is that big jump happens from year 1 and year 2 when the CS and system stay the same. Goff I think is rare that he changed CS and system year 1 to year 2 and had a huge jump. I give credit to that situation more to great Coaching than Goff making the jump he did but he definitely took a step back in year 3 and I think that was a combination of him regressing and personnel issues on the offense. So he is an interesting one to watch. Smith is also an example of finding ground with stability in consistency and growth in the same CS and system. I believe this being Sam's year 2 in the same system and a better OL around him we should see a nice jump from him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 53 minutes ago, Ken Schroy said: I think they were 2nd to worst. Yes, at least depending on which metric - which is a far cry from "worst offensive line of all time," no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PepPep Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, PCP63 said: I don't quite think it's accurate to mention his gun-slinger mentality when discussing his INTs. Most of his INTs weren't because of him making risky throws, rather bad decisions. Sure, but thats a thin line. For a conservative, game manager QB, a 'risky throw' IS a 'bad decision'. Darnold is a gun-slinger. He's willing to take a shot knowing that it may result in an INT because the reward could very well be a TD. So while I understand what you mean about last year, that he did in fact make a lot of bad decisions and needs to (I think he will) cut down on those, I still think he will have a decent amount of INTs simply because he is that type of QB (gun-slinger). So since we're talking about next year, and I don't expect him to change that aspect of his game, I mention it. It's also why I think his yards and TDs go up as much as they will. A QB who doesn't play as aggressively as Sam plays will not end up with those numbers despite having less INTs and a higher completion %. And for the record, gimme the gun-slinger every day of the week. lol. So I'm on board with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sec101row23 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 You know when a young QB “break outs”? When he gets some support around him. Mahommes and Jackson, both talented, but both on really good teams, not surprised they broke out in year 2. Goff and Ben, both on good teams. I don’t know if Sam will have “break out” season this year, but I would wager a lot of money he looks the part of a legit starting QB in this league. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mudcat22 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 So if Darnold has a Year similar to Year 2 this season, do you give him a big contract next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jets723 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, sec101row23 said: You know when a young QB “break outs”? When he gets some support around him. Mahommes and Jackson, both talented, but both on really good teams, not surprised they broke out in year 2. Goff and Ben, both on good teams. I don’t know if Sam will have “break out” season this year, but I would wager a lot of money he looks the part of a legit starting QB in this league. Bingo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandy Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2020/04/29/espns-dan-orlovsky-ranks-burrow-darnold-top-quarterbacks-3-drafts/3048272001/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ex-Rex Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 22 hours ago, johnnysd said: Exactly. There is part of me that feels like I make excuses for Sam, but when you look at the situation last week it is hard to imagine that Sam's performance was not dramatically affected by it In addition he had 2 outlier games that were really bad. Outside of those he was really solid and after the "ghosts" game they did adapt the play calling to fit him better. From everything we have heard we will move to a different running and blocking scheme. There is a stat that when given time in the pocket Sam was high on the list of best in the NFL in QB rating. I expect Sam to surpass Joe Namath's 4,003 passing yds this season with close to 30 TD's and 9-15 ints. He will also have a 65 % completion rate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ex-Rex said: I expect Sam to surpass Joe Namath's 4,003 passing yds this season with close to 30 TD's and 9-15 ints. He will also have a 65 % completion rate. I think for maybe a year or two more he will throw enough interceptions to still hate on him, but he will improve on that, and he will quickly improve on yards, TDs and the deep ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 5 hours ago, sec101row23 said: You know when a young QB “break outs”? When he gets some support around him. Mahommes and Jackson, both talented, but both on really good teams, not surprised they broke out in year 2. Goff and Ben, both on good teams. I don’t know if Sam will have “break out” season this year, but I would wager a lot of money he looks the part of a legit starting QB in this league. he looked it last year. take his 13 game stats and extrapolate to a full 16 game season and he had 3700 yds, 24 tds. not amazing but solid numbers for a qb on an offense with mostly medioce players all around 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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