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Cap cuts this time next year


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The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

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11 minutes ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

Personally I think Fant is going to surprise. He has a lot of talent, incredibly athletic, and some excellent tape (and some not so great), but mostly he was not a scheme fit in Seattle and was utilized quite poorly.

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12 minutes ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

 

I assume that $64M includes all the guys on one-year deals right now (Jenkins, Desir, Poole, etc.).  There are many starters who need to be replaced here so we need to keep that in mind but there's a lot of flexibility on the horizon.

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18 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

I assume that $64M includes all the guys on one-year deals right now (Jenkins, Desir, Poole, etc.).  There are many starters who need to be replaced here so we need to keep that in mind but there's a lot of flexibility on the horizon.

That's with those guys off the roster.  People talking about the possibility of lots of comp picks next year but it's really not there.  They'll lose a ton of players but with $100 mil and a million holes on the roster they'll sign as many as they lose if not more.

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22 minutes ago, KRL said:

Hopefully Darnold "shows out" next year, that would allow Douglas to
utilize that cap space in giving him an extension a year early.  You
would get two benefits:

- You could absorb whatever massive bonus you would give Darnold

- By giving him an extension early you should be able to get a
"hometown discount"

With that kid of cash on hand, if Darnold blows up next year I say give him a new deal with a MASSIVE year 1 salary that'll bring down the yearly charge the rest of the way.

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This is an awfully difficult thing to predict at this point. We have no idea if there are even going to be fans in these stadiums...There is no way to predict what ramifications there will be to the cap.

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51 minutes ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

It is rumored that the 2021 cap will drastically increase.  Some are estimating a jump from $200M to $240M.  Not coming from an NFL source but would be interesting if this happens.

 

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We’ll have a lot of cash... and with all the one year deals, a lot of potential holes. There’s a lot of one year deals so we’ll be in a similar spot next offseason. 
 

That’s part of the reason this draft was so important- if guys like Mims, Davis, Hall and Zuniga hit, that will greatly lessen the resources the Jets will have to spend at CB, WR , edge and S moving forward.  

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5 hours ago, shuler82 said:

We’ll have a lot of cash... and with all the one year deals, a lot of potential holes. There’s a lot of one year deals so we’ll be in a similar spot next offseason. 
 

That’s part of the reason this draft was so important- if guys like Mims, Davis, Hall and Zuniga hit, that will greatly lessen the resources the Jets will have to spend at CB, WR , edge and S moving forward.  

Exactly. Hopefully some of the guys JD drafted will hit and some of the younger guys on the roster pan out so JD does not have to fill AS MANY holes. Now, with that many holes, he will have to sign FAs but thats also a TON of cash so he might be able to resign some of the guys that prove their worth. I mean, you gotta think if some of the one year signings play great JD will want them back. 

Also, here's a list of some of the potential top FAs in 2021. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-projecting-the-top-25-nfl-free-agents-in-2021

 

 

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7 hours ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

All this money for an Adams and Darnold extension.  Nice.

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7 hours ago, AFJF said:

That's with those guys off the roster.  People talking about the possibility of lots of comp picks next year but it's really not there.  They'll lose a ton of players but with $100 mil and a million holes on the roster they'll sign as many as they lose if not more.

I fully expect JD to extend several of these OL and DB after seeing them during the season. Smart, disciplined team 1st guys. Guys you want anchoring a line with young blood at LT & RT. If the 3 Colt DBs play well I think JD lets Desir walk anyway because of all the young talent. Also plays into his comp pick strategy. Also OL age better than DBs.

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10 hours ago, AFJF said:

That's with those guys off the roster.  People talking about the possibility of lots of comp picks next year but it's really not there.  They'll lose a ton of players but with $100 mil and a million holes on the roster they'll sign as many as they lose if not more.

They won't, its not the way JD will approach things. 

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11 hours ago, AFerg726 said:

This is an awfully difficult thing to predict at this point. We have no idea if there are even going to be fans in these stadiums...There is no way to predict what ramifications there will be to the cap.

I doubt he’s betting his house on these moves. One can always discuss innit?

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15 hours ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

Don’t forget Bobby Bonilla.

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4 hours ago, johnnysd said:

They won't, its not the way JD will approach things. 

I think that’ll be the case once the team is finally good enough to not have a million needs in an offseason, but they’ll still have to fill out the 55 after cutting all those guys next year.  They’ll have to be active in FA.

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1 hour ago, predator_05 said:

Bye leveon

Poor Le’veon. On a HOF career path then sits out a season only to join the Jets (where RB come to die) with the worst OL, no WR and a young QB. He needs to find himself a trade partner. 

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27 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Poor Le’veon. On a HOF career path then sits out a season only to join the Jets (where RB come to die) with the worst OL, no WR and a young QB. He needs to find himself a trade partner. 

He doesn't care about football, he cares about money.

He'll take his 35 million guaranteed (or whatever it was) for 2 years of comparatively lighter work on a less ambitious team.

As fans, we can be critical, but after watching ryan shazier turn into a rag doll, you can't really knock him for wanting equal money with a lesser workload.

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13 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

He doesn't care about football, he cares about money.

He'll take his 35 million guaranteed (or whatever it was) for 2 years of comparatively lighter work on a less ambitious team.

As fans, we can be critical, but after watching ryan shazier turn into a rag doll, you can't really knock him for wanting equal money with a lesser workload.

He cares about both. You don’t become that good without investing yourself into your craft. Because of that investment he wanted to be compensated. Unfortunately, rather than trying to work with the Steelers to find an equitable resolution he dug his heels in. Agent gave him bad advice. But I do realize the Steelers were using him way too much. Takes a toll on your body.

Hoping Gase can unlock his potential again and give us a 1k yard back again with 60 receptions and 2,000 APY

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Today: $18 mil (Per Overthecap.com)

Subratct $8 mil for Jenkins, Maulet, Fales ($10 mil)

Add $11 mil for cutting Tru Johonson ($21 mil)

Subtract $9 mil for rookies ($12 mil)

Subtract $5 mil for In-season spending room ($7 mil)

 

 

 

Potential cut/trade savings:

 

Winters- $7.2 mil

Williamson- $6.5 mil

Bellamy- $2.5 mil

Harrison- $2.5 mil

Hairston- $2.5 mil

Q. Wilson- $1.2 mil

Farley- $1.2 mil

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18 hours ago, nyjbuddy said:

It is rumored that the 2021 cap will drastically increase.  Some are estimating a jump from $200M to $240M.  Not coming from an NFL source but would be interesting if this happens.

 

Note the date on this tweet, Feb 28th.

Cap has no chance of going up $40 million and some say there's a chance the cap could actually go down...by alot.  Owners are looking at 100s of millions in lost revenue if the season is altered or if there are no fans at the games.  If we are lucky the cap will stay where it is now.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2020/4/22/21230404/nfl-2020-season-covid-19-adam-schefter-2021-salary-cap

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58 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

He cares about both. You don’t become that good without investing yourself into your craft. Because of that investment he wanted to be compensated. Unfortunately, rather than trying to work with the Steelers to find an equitable resolution he dug his heels in. Agent gave him bad advice. But I do realize the Steelers were using him way too much. Takes a toll on your body.

Hoping Gase can unlock his potential again and give us a 1k yard back again with 60 receptions and 2,000 APY

 

Yeah, he's a great player. But what i'm thinking is, he doesn't have the same motivation he did earlier. He's reached a point where he doesn't "need" to play football. Whatever 'effort' he puts into football, will be on his terms. That makes all the difference.

 

"I've made a lot of money, I'm happy where I'm at, I've got a good family -- I don't really need to play football," said Bell, who has made around $16 million for his career. "Right now, I'm just kind of doing it because I love it. Now, I've done everything but own a Super Bowl ...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22044556/leveon-bell-pittsburgh-steelers-sit-2018-retire-tagged-again

 

I hope he gives the Jets a big season, but now that he's got his money, he has no incentive to.

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@AFJF This guy was really high on Ashtyn Davis and had him going in Rd. 1. I was banging the table for Baun in Rd. 3 much like yourself.

According to him, Davis had a groin injury and teams were not able to clear him due to COVID. That worked in the Jets favor as he slipped to Rd. 3. Was wondering if that makes you feel any better about them passing on Baun or if you're still not a fan of the pick. 

As much as I wanted Baun, I think if Zuniga turns into a legit contributor and Davis ends up being a really good starter, I think Davis starts to look like a really good pick.   

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20 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Personally I think Fant is going to surprise. He has a lot of talent, incredibly athletic, and some excellent tape (and some not so great), but mostly he was not a scheme fit in Seattle and was utilized quite poorly.

In that interview with Gase, Florio asks him how hard it was to pass on all the receivers to take a tackle and Gase ultimately says that he and Douglas decided before the draft if Becton was there, he was the pick over any receiver, and he calls Becton an “old school left tackle.” I think the Fant signing was expressly made as insurance in the case that they couldn’t get a left tackle in this draft, which seemed likely a month ago. Now that Becton is here, Fant has one foot on a banana peel because he supposedly hates playing ORT, and if Edoga shows a pulse, there’s simply no need to keep Fant around in 2022 as a really expensive backup. His best hope is that Gase opts to start Becton on the right side, let Fant have a non-awful year at left tackle, and then get traded somewhere for a mid-round pick. Now, if Fant surprises and looks amazing, then obviously that plan changes, and Douglas looks like a golden god, but those chances are really slim

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16 minutes ago, PepPep said:

@AFJF This guy was really high on Ashtyn Davis and had him going in Rd. 1. I was banging the table for Baun in Rd. 3 much like yourself.

According to him, Davis had a groin injury and teams were not able to clear him due to COVID. That worked in the Jets favor as he slipped to Rd. 3. Was wondering if that makes you feel any better about them passing on Baun or if you're still not a fan of the pick. 

As much as I wanted Baun, I think if Zuniga turns into a legit contributor and Davis ends up being a really good starter, I think Davis starts to look like a really good pick.   

The issue with Baun is that he’s very small for an edge rusher. So much so that he weighed in at 238 at the Combine, and that was after loading up with so much water that his piss test was flagged as a diluted sample. As @RobR points out all the time, there are no good 225 lb pass rushers 

https://www.wiscnews.com/sports/football/espn-ex-badger-zack-baun-tests-positive-for-diluted-sample-at-nfl-scouting-combine/article_e405db51-f363-5cfb-bb3f-da1617b712a6.html

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2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

He doesn't care about football, he cares about money.

He'll take his 35 million guaranteed (or whatever it was) for 2 years of comparatively lighter work on a less ambitious team.

As fans, we can be critical, but after watching ryan shazier turn into a rag doll, you can't really knock him for wanting equal money with a lesser workload.

Right - because in a year where his QB went down with Mono week 1, his OL set new records of ineptitude, and his coach had no clue how to use him he kept his mouth shut, worked hard and by all accounts was a model teammate.

He will also be 29 on opening day 2021 with a year off under his belt.  Can we let the guy have 2020 and see what happens when he doesnt have to evade Brian Winters 2 yards deep in the backfield on every carry.

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20 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I assume that $64M includes all the guys on one-year deals right now (Jenkins, Desir, Poole, etc.).  There are many starters who need to be replaced here so we need to keep that in mind but there's a lot of flexibility on the horizon.

I'm sure like we saw with Griffin last year that if any of these guys are playing well, and the Jets decide that they're a part of their longer term plans, that they'll be extended during the season. I'm sure the hope is also that draft picks like Hall, Clark, and Davis see expanded and/or starting roles in their second seasons. That's the good team model; being able to let expensive players walk by back-filling their spots with developed draft picks. 

20 hours ago, AFJF said:

That's with those guys off the roster.  People talking about the possibility of lots of comp picks next year but it's really not there.  They'll lose a ton of players but with $100 mil and a million holes on the roster they'll sign as many as they lose if not more.

Joe Douglas made a couple nice moves down in the draft with the second round move showing some cajones. I think it's pretty clear that he wants moar draft picks, and I suspect he has a pretty good idea of how to manipulate that comp pick formula to his advantage. I don't expect "lots," of comp picks in the future, but I do think he'll be trying to net one or two almost every year, especially in a year where he expects to lose a high-priced player. Signing other team's cuts doesn't effect the formula, neither does signing guys on May X, after the draft. There are ways to work it. 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

I'm sure like we saw with Griffin last year that if any of these guys are playing well, and the Jets decide that they're a part of their longer term plans, that they'll be extended during the season. I'm sure the hope is also that draft picks like Hall, Clark, and Davis see expanded and/or starting roles in their second seasons. That's the good team model; being able to let expensive players walk by back-filling their spots with developed draft picks. 

Joe Douglas made a couple nice moves down in the draft with the second round move showing some cajones. I think it's pretty clear that he wants moar draft picks, and I suspect he has a pretty good idea of how to manipulate that comp pick formula to his advantage. I don't expect "lots," of comp picks in the future, but I do think he'll be trying to net one or two almost every year, especially in a year where he expects to lose a high-priced player. Signing other team's cuts doesn't effect the formula, neither does signing guys on May X, after the draft. There are ways to work it. 

None for 2021.  Looks like only the Pats in the AFC East are likely to qualify and they will get 3rds and 4ths.

AFC East

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2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

None for 2021.  Looks like only the Pats in the AFC East are likely to qualify and they will get 3rds and 4ths.

Never expected any this year, and was actually surprised that they were in the mix to maybe land one over the course of the offseason. Would've been nice to get one for Robby, but there was just too much to do this to ignore needs this year in favor of maybe a fourth or fifth round pick in 2021. 

But going forward, that doesn't alter my expectation that Douglas will come out on the plus side more often than not, especially in years where he sees a potential third or fourth rounder. 

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21 hours ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

The real amount they save is the amount they're not going to pay (so long as the team isn't absorbing guaranteed future money for Enunwa or Fant). Whatever extra SB money accelerates to 2021 can be equally deferred with new signings as needed, or deferred by designating the player as a June 1 cut. Since the cap rises each year - i.e. like any inflation, a dollar today is worth more than a dollar next year - this is as likely as not to happen between new FA spending and a couple big-money starters they could extend in the 2021 offseason (namely, Adams and Darnold).

So prior to the start of the 2021 season in March:

  • Releasing Bell saves $11.5MM (because they're not paying his 2021's $11.5MM if released)
  • Releasing Enunwa saves $3.7MM ($4.1MM of his due $7.8MM is guaranteed for injury) unless he's deemed fit to play before March 2021
  • Releasing Fant should clear $8.4MM, but if he finishes the season on IR that number could drop to $4MM
  • Anderson saves $8.2MM, as it's his final contract season (your number is correct)
  • Crowder saves $10.5MM (again your number is correct for the same reason)

Also if you're going to include Crowder:

  • Adams -- Likelihood aside (I doubt he gets traded), Adams would clear another $10MM on paper today, but it's doubtful that would be his 2021 cap number anyway since they're likely either trading him by Halloween this year or they're extending him in 2021; either one would change his scheduled $9.8MM cap number.
  • Lewis -- if he goes back to being unreliable like he was before we picked him up they'll replace him, saving $6.2MM in salary and RB
  • Mosley -- seems very unlikely where we're at today, but only half his $16MM is guaranteed, so after the 2020 season's over the decision is whether or not he's worth $8MM in 2021, since that's what they'd save by letting him go.

 

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22 hours ago, AFJF said:

The Henry Anderson thread got me thinking about this because if he doesn't have a monster year in 2020, he's gonna' be dumped to save cap.  Haven't really seen in broken down on the board but the way the Jets could be looking at $100 mil in cap space next season looks like this:

Current estimated cap space: $64 million 

Annual cap increase likely to be in $10 mil range brings us to around $74 million.

 

Bell released saves $9.5 million, putting them at $83.5 million

Enunwa released saves $6 million, putting them at $89.5 mil

Anderson released saves $8.2 mil, putting them at $97.7 mil

If not worth the cap hit, Fant release frees up $7.2 mil, putting them at $104.9 mil

I don't see Crowder going anywhere unless he gets seriously hurt or somebody significantly outplays him.  Won't include him in likely cuts, but if he were cut it would save $10.5 million.

 

I don't  think we can cut Bell unless we have a replacement. At this point he is the only guy in the team worthy of a starting RB role. Renegotiation is the way to go if he stinks it up again.

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1 hour ago, slats said:

I'm sure like we saw with Griffin last year that if any of these guys are playing well, and the Jets decide that they're a part of their longer term plans, that they'll be extended during the season. I'm sure the hope is also that draft picks like Hall, Clark, and Davis see expanded and/or starting roles in their second seasons. That's the good team model; being able to let expensive players walk by back-filling their spots with developed draft picks. 

Joe Douglas made a couple nice moves down in the draft with the second round move showing some cajones. I think it's pretty clear that he wants moar draft picks, and I suspect he has a pretty good idea of how to manipulate that comp pick formula to his advantage. I don't expect "lots," of comp picks in the future, but I do think he'll be trying to net one or two almost every year, especially in a year where he expects to lose a high-priced player. Signing other team's cuts doesn't effect the formula, neither does signing guys on May X, after the draft. There are ways to work it. 

Too early to call our future comp picks, as it'll be indirectly based on how newer arrivals/picks perform, which will of course tailor next year's FA period.

But where we're at today, the Jets will in line for the maximum four 2022 comp picks for 2021 FAs who will find homes elsewhere. These are the ones whose next contracts are likely to be at pick-qualifying amounts, if we don't bring them back ourselves:

  1. Williamson
  2. Winters
  3. Perriman
  4. Poole
  5. Jenkins
  6. Maye
  7. Desir (almost didn't include him here, and probably shouldn't, since his likely/upside 7th rd contract value at age 30 will surely be offset by a new lower level UFA we sign). Ditto Hewitt, Wilson, Bellamy, Harrison, and/or Onwuatshisname.

It depends. When the team is scheduled to get a higher comp pick (or two) then it's prudent to pay attention to the UFA status of FAs. If they're just late picks, the same to a degree (I wouldn't go all-in on marginal players and lose 5th/6th round comps for them), but if I'm Douglas I'm not sitting on my hands on a good young starter - let alone a premium/star UFA - because we could lose out on a late round pick a year later. Here in May, 2020 none of these guys look like 3rd or 4th round comp pick contract players.

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4 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I don't  think we can cut Bell unless we have a replacement. At this point he is the only guy in the team worthy of a starting RB role. Renegotiation is the way to go if he stinks it up again.

Douglas already has that $11.5M in cap savings by cutting Bell figured into his 2021 budget. Even if Bell improves significantly from last year to this with improved personnel around him, he's still not worth half his deal. Jets will have a RB by committee next year with Perine as a primary member. 

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