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In Depth Will there be a season article


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15 minutes ago, section314 said:

Just watching parts of the schedule unveiling show the other night reinforced to me that the NFL is living in a fantasy world.

As I said in a previous post they remind me of Baghdad Bob recently...….

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South Korea, the early model for containing this virus, just recently tried to re-open their country encouraging its citizens to go out and live their lives with Covid-19. One guy tested positive. They traced his weekend to visiting three or four different nightclubs, they tracked the 7200 people who may've come into contact with him, found another 50 or so positives, and the mayor shut down the city of Seoul four days after trying to open. 

I think that's what we can probably expect. Opening things up, then closing a lot of them back down as they try to keep the infection rate below the breaking point for local hospitals. Hard to see that boding well for football. 

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Most of you have the challenges figured out but it's interesting to hear Fauci spell it out how the virus spreads in a football environment.

 It's possible that that the team with the best depth wins the 2020 season.

Here is the piece...

 

"Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told Peter King of NBC’s Football Morning in Americathat widespread testing of players would be the first step, and the obvious acknowledgement that any player who tests positive has to be quarantined because of how rapidly it would spread in an athletic environment.

“Sweat does not do it,” Fauci said. “This is a respiratory virus, so it’s going to be spread by shedding virus. The problem with virus shedding is that if I have it in my nasal pharynx, and it sheds and I wipe my hand against my nose—now it’s on my hand. You see, then I touch my chest or my thigh, then it’s on my chest or my thigh for at least a few hours. Sweat as such won’t transmit it. But if people are in such close contact as football players are on every single play, then that’s the perfect set up for spreading. I would think that if there is an infected football player on the field—a middle linebacker, a tackle, whoever it is it—as soon as they hit the next guy, the chances are that they will be shedding virus all over that person.

“If you really want to be in a situation where you want to be absolutely certain, you’d test all the players before the game. And you say, Those who are infected: Sorry, you’re sidelined. Those who are free: Get in there and play.”

That’s going to require so many tests that imagining it now would either be sheer folly or greedy on the part of a sports league. But Fauci hopes that the coming months bring increased access to tests. He’s also in modified quarantine after contact with a person who tested positive at the White House, where staffers are tested daily, showing how quickly things can change.

“If I test today, and I’m negative, you don’t know if I got exposed tomorrow,” Fauci said. “There’s no guarantee that you’re going to get exposed and be positive the next day. To give you an example, you’re probably reading in the newspapers that there’s an infection in the White House. I was exposed to that person. So I immediately got tested. I am negative. So, I’m negative yesterday. I don’t know if I’m going to be negative Monday. Understand? It’s almost an impossible situation.

“To be 100 percent sure, you’ve got to test every day. But that’s not practical and that’s never going to happen. But you can diminish dramatically by testing everybody Saturday night, Sunday morning, and say OK, only negative players play.”

That creates a number of questions for football teams in the context of the game alone, as they’ll have to be cognizant of depth and have backups ready to go at a moment’s notice — because that’s how quickly a game plan can change with one positive test.  "

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This is clear evidence of Darwinism at work.  Individually, people can be smart or dumb.  But in large enough groups, the Bell curve applies and there are always dumb-asses that 'go to multiple nightclubs' the first chance they get.  The deeply cynical version of me (who is getting much more air-time lately) almost hopes the dumb-asses cull themselves from the human herd and we end up shifting the curve to the right.  Sadly, I know that's not how it works as this infection will spread to infect others who don't deserve it such as health-care workers who have to take care of these Covidiots.  

Back to football, if they could truly create a controlled environment where everyone inside behaved responsibly (almost as if their lives depended on it) then it *could* work.  But human nature is what it is.  Can you imagine people like Antonio Brown following all the rules?  Not likely.  

So what can the NFL do?  Pretty much what they are doing.  Stay the course, hope for the best and play the cards they get dealt.  Because it helps nobody to see them fold now.  Hey, if things go pear-shaped, maybe we'll get to see a punt-pass-kick competition this fall instead.

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18 minutes ago, nycdan said:

This is clear evidence of Darwinism at work.  Individually, people can be smart or dumb.  But in large enough groups, the Bell curve applies and there are always dumb-asses that 'go to multiple nightclubs' the first chance they get.  The deeply cynical version of me (who is getting much more air-time lately) almost hopes the dumb-asses cull themselves from the human herd and we end up shifting the curve to the right.  Sadly, I know that's not how it works as this infection will spread to infect others who don't deserve it such as health-care workers who have to take care of these Covidiots.  

Back to football, if they could truly create a controlled environment where everyone inside behaved responsibly (almost as if their lives depended on it) then it *could* work.  But human nature is what it is.  Can you imagine people like Antonio Brown following all the rules?  Not likely.  

So what can the NFL do?  Pretty much what they are doing.  Stay the course, hope for the best and play the cards they get dealt.  Because it helps nobody to see them fold now.  Hey, if things go pear-shaped, maybe we'll get to see a punt-pass-kick competition this fall instead.

I think that's what the NFL is doing and why they sound so out of touch, kind of delaying hoping for a miracle ahead of time treatment or vaccine. That bad part of this come August fans are now going to expect football and when they don't get it they are gona be some angry folks. 

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31 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I think that's what the NFL is doing and why they sound so out of touch, kind of delaying hoping for a miracle ahead of time treatment or vaccine. That bad part of this come August fans are now going to expect football and when they don't get it they are gona be some angry folks. 

I am mentally expecting my next football game I watch to be in September of 2021.

Here in California Newsome's reopening plan is very unlikely to allow any football in 2020. 

Unless the virus magically disappears by September I do not see how fans will be able to attend fans. 

They might need to move to complete isloation of teams and stuff maybe by division playing all games on fanless fields in the isolation area though I am not sure all players would agree and the NFLPA would certainly disagree.

If I were the NFL my initial plan would have been to start football on Thanksgiving.  We will have a much better view of things by early October I think.

That said there are some doctors that say the epidemics tend to go away on their own and that even the 1918 version only had one wave if you truly look at the numbers, so maybe we do see dramatic decreases in the next couple months and a season becomes a more realistic possibility.

Meanwhile the issue will become more and more political in the US which will not help at all towards us having a season.

 

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MLB’s resume to play proposal is being voted on later today by the owners to see what they’ll be sending over to the players union, just curious but IF mlb plays 80 games this summer and playoffs without having to stop, why wouldn’t the NFL be able to do the same thing this fall? Fans or not? My point is it’s too early to know what’s going to happen. We know @kevinc855 doesn’t think there will be football. Preparing for the worst, we get it. 

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4 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

And its trending to a NO.....

Real in depth piece about the conflict between the rhetoric of the NFL and reality Aka laws and science 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/sports/will-there-be-an-nfl-season.html

 

 

 

So we can't really post links from the NY times because you have to pay for it. I clicked the link and it wants me to sign up.

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7 minutes ago, Maxman said:

So we can't really post links from the NY times because you have to pay for it. I clicked the link and it wants me to sign up.

Wait, really?  I was able to read the full article no problem.

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2 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I think they give you a few free ones before they throw the pay wall at you.   

Oh, that could definitely be the case.  My bad.  I did see a little notification at the very the bottom that said any article involving COVID-19 is free though.  

Screenshot_20200511-135419.thumb.png.ff2892d818e028609f48b3587cb77181.png

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People have to be smart. 

Let's say that there are 150 people involved to make the Jets run, including the players.

The Archer Hotel, 4 stars, is right down the road.  

There are some people with families who will refuse to stay at a hotel.  But why can't you take as many people as possible and put them in the hotel.   They stay there.  Maybe the hotel staff stays there.   Staff wears masks.  How many teams can do that?  That does not sound hard to me.   Close the system.

Why is it hard to have training camp?  That is when the players are supposed to be locked down. 

These are tough times.  Business needs to make tough choices.  

Seoul, Korea?  I really hope that, when we open up, we are not opening nightclubs until we get a vaccine.  

California?  Fine-let the three teams move temporarily to Nevada, Arizona or Texas, together with the tax revenue.

I think if the NFLPA wants the players to get paid, the players need to lock down, at least for awhile.  When a player goes home to a wife and kids who have been and out and about, and then goes back to the team and facility, that just increases the risk exponentially.   If half the players locked down, that significantly reduces the risk.  More than half the players should be able to lock down.   

Look at The White House.  The staff all goes home.  Katie Miller is married to a top Trump aid.  What is he doing?  

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22 minutes ago, Jetlife33 said:

MLB’s resume to play proposal is being voted on later today by the owners to see what they’ll be sending over to the players union, just curious but IF mlb plays 80 games this summer and playoffs without having to stop, why wouldn’t the NFL be able to do the same thing this fall? Fans or not? My point is it’s too early to know what’s going to happen. We know @kevinc855 doesn’t think there will be football. Preparing for the worst, we get it. 

Please understand I want nothing else but to have a season but I'm getting tired of the NFL telling me there will be a 16 game season with fans in 4 months when I cant walk across the street for a sandwich without violating some stay at home order

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7 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Please understand I want nothing else but to have a season but I'm getting tired of the NFL telling me there will be a 16 game season with fans in 4 months when I cant walk across the street for a sandwich without violating some stay at home order

I get it man it’s totally understandable, I wouldn’t take it so personally though. The fact that they’re going forward as of now (Season starts in 4 months) makes sense, of course they want to play. It always comes down to money, not playing loses tons and tons of $. They’re going to try their best to play the season as scheduled, they have contingency plans in place. Its way too early to know what’s going to happen. 

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3 hours ago, slats said:

South Korea, the early model for containing this virus, just recently tried to re-open their country encouraging its citizens to go out and live their lives with Covid-19. One guy tested positive. They traced his weekend to visiting three or four different nightclubs, they tracked the 7200 people who may've come into contact with him, found another 50 or so positives, and the mayor shut down the city of Seoul four days after trying to open. 

I think that's what we can probably expect. Opening things up, then closing a lot of them back down as they try to keep the infection rate below the breaking point for local hospitals. Hard to see that boding well for football. 

I think the problem with using SK in this sense is that they don't have or would be as close as we are to "herd immunity". They did a great job of tracing but since so few of their citizens got the virus that opens them up to a longer path back to normal. Whereas here in the US, and NY specifically, we have up to as high as 25% of people who are confirmed to have had the virus and now have antibodies. Thats a huge pool of people who cannot spread the virus now. 

And honestly I think more people might have come in contact with it. I took the antibody test and although I came back negative, there was a low level of the antibodies in my blood. No one has yet to explain to me how it's possible to have those antibodies without being exposed to the virus. 

Only time will tell, because as great as Fauci and Birx have been with leading this from a medical perspective, they are not infallible and have been wrong on quite a few occasions regarding this virus.

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4 hours ago, nycdan said:

 But in large enough groups, the Bell curve applies and there are always dumb-asses that 'go to multiple nightclubs' the first chance they get. 

ah yes, the Le'Veon Bell curve. Named for the slowest Rb in the NFL 

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There's effectively zero chance these games will be played in full stadiums. There's a minimal chance that games could be played in stadiums with drastically reduced fan presence.There's a decent chance that games could be played fan-free. But that's not certain, either

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Major League Baseball owners have approved a proposal to present to players for the 2020 season, according to ESPN and multiple reports.

MLB plans to meet with the players union Tuesday to discuss the proposal and start negotiations, according to ESPN and reports.

A person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press that the delayed season would start around the Fourth of July weekend in ballparks without fans. The plan envisions expanding the designated hitter to the National League for 2020, as well.

Spring training would start in early to mid-June. Each team would play about 82 regular-season games, most against opponents in its own division. Postseason play would be expanded from 10 clubs to 14 by doubling wild cards in each league to four.

Teams would prefer to play at their regular-season ballparks but would switch to spring training stadiums or neutral sites if medical and government approvals can't be obtained for games at home. Toronto might have to play home games in Dunedin, Florida. The All-Star Game, scheduled for Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on July 14, likely would be called off.

 

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5 hours ago, slats said:

South Korea, the early model for containing this virus, just recently tried to re-open their country encouraging its citizens to go out and live their lives with Covid-19. One guy tested positive. They traced his weekend to visiting three or four different nightclubs, they tracked the 7200 people who may've come into contact with him, found another 50 or so positives, and the mayor shut down the city of Seoul four days after trying to open. 

I think that's what we can probably expect. Opening things up, then closing a lot of them back down as they try to keep the infection rate below the breaking point for local hospitals. Hard to see that boding well for football. 

Yup. Except without the pinpoint contact tracing, thorough testing and immediate policy implementation to curb the spread. 

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5 hours ago, slats said:

South Korea, the early model for containing this virus, just recently tried to re-open their country encouraging its citizens to go out and live their lives with Covid-19. One guy tested positive. They traced his weekend to visiting three or four different nightclubs, they tracked the 7200 people who may've come into contact with him, found another 50 or so positives, and the mayor shut down the city of Seoul four days after trying to open. 

I think that's what we can probably expect. Opening things up, then closing a lot of them back down as they try to keep the infection rate below the breaking point for local hospitals. Hard to see that boding well for football. 

I hadn't even heard that yet, until I just looked it up. Do they know that those people were all (or even were most of them) negative independent of that one guy? Could be one of those 50 had it and gave it to some (or many) credited to guy #1. Or that 45 of them technically had it and they collectively spread it to 5 more because... well because they're in freaking nightclubs and social distancing in such settings means they'd have to close their doors after the 8th non-employee was let in lol. Discouraging for the future all the same.

As for the NFL season, I don't know what to expect. It's definitely a lot of people in one area, but there are obvious differences. First, it's a bigger open area (even in domes, but in particular for outdoor stadiums). Second, most people stay in the same place all game and aren't walking to every part of the stadium touching stuff everywhere along the way. That's all well and good except fans are - by current social distancing standards - all on top of others other kinda, unless they plan on only allowing groups of 2-4 to sit together followed by 3-4 empty seats around them in all directions. I suppose they could over-staff to limit close-contact people like in the restrooms or on concession lines, but those corridors weren't constructed with this level distancing in mind.

Then again there are a lot of people who'll just stay home no matter what, and I wouldn't think the secondary ticket market would be booming either, even when many STHs are giving them away for free. It might not be as bad, I guess, if they say to season ticket holders they can go to 1 out of every 4 games so they can keep upwards of 3/4 of the seats empty. Problem is the demand isn't the same for each opponent (who gets the Chiefs game and who gets the Jets lol) & I'm unaware that the league is even strongly considering a plan like this anyway.

It'll be interesting, if nothing else. They can/should refund the preseason tickets at a minimum. Who gives a crap about home field advantage and crowd noise in games that don't count because they're mostly 11-on-11 backups' practices anyway?

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

As for the NFL season, I don't know what to expect. It's definitely a lot of people in one area, but there are obvious differences. First, it's a bigger open area (even in domes, but in particular for outdoor stadiums). Second, most people stay in the same place all game and aren't walking to every part of the stadium touching stuff everywhere along the way. That's all well and good except fans are - by current social distancing standards - all on top of others other kinda, unless they plan on only allowing groups of 2-4 to sit together followed by 3-4 empty seats around them in all directions. I suppose they could over-staff to limit close-contact people like in the restrooms or on concession lines, but those corridors weren't constructed with this level distancing in mind.

 

2 things.

1) Think for a second about what happens in a stadium after a great play. High fives, hugs, cheering.

2) Loud talking, screaming, and singing increases the risk of spread.

I don't see any chance that games are played in front of anything close to full stadiums

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I hadn't even heard that yet, until I just looked it up. Do they know that those people were all (or even were most of them) negative independent of that one guy? Could be one of those 50 had it and gave it to some (or many) credited to guy #1. Or that 45 of them technically had it and they collectively spread it to 5 more because... well because they're in freaking nightclubs and social distancing in such settings means they'd have to close their doors after the 8th non-employee was let in lol. Discouraging for the future all the same.

As for the NFL season, I don't know what to expect. It's definitely a lot of people in one area, but there are obvious differences. First, it's a bigger open area (even in domes, but in particular for outdoor stadiums). Second, most people stay in the same place all game and aren't walking to every part of the stadium touching stuff everywhere along the way. That's all well and good except fans are - by current social distancing standards - all on top of others other kinda, unless they plan on only allowing groups of 2-4 to sit together followed by 3-4 empty seats around them in all directions. I suppose they could over-staff to limit close-contact people like in the restrooms or on concession lines, but those corridors weren't constructed with this level distancing in mind.

Then again there are a lot of people who'll just stay home no matter what, and I wouldn't think the secondary ticket market would be booming either, even when many STHs are giving them away for free. It might not be as bad, I guess, if they say to season ticket holders they can go to 1 out of every 4 games so they can keep upwards of 3/4 of the seats empty. Problem is the demand isn't the same for each opponent (who gets the Chiefs game and who gets the Jets lol) & I'm unaware that the league is even strongly considering a plan like this anyway.

It'll be interesting, if nothing else. They can/should refund the preseason tickets at a minimum. Who gives a crap about home field advantage and crowd noise in games that don't count because they're mostly 11-on-11 backups' practices anyway?

I think its almost sure at this point no fans will be attending games. The 15k fan idea cant seem to work any way you draft it, there are a lot of whole in that concept the Dolphins developed. Every stadium is very different. Best case scenario is a 12 game season with no fans. Worst case, well we all know what that is 

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2 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Please understand I want nothing else but to have a season but I'm getting tired of the NFL telling me there will be a 16 game season with fans in 4 months when I cant walk across the street for a sandwich without violating some stay at home order

The NFL isnt telling you anything. What a peculiar thing to complain about.

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