New York Jets Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in the AFC East by Evan Desai 10 hours ago Follow @mumbai_desai

[Warfish]

15 hours ago, Prez33 said:

No, best QB based on stats and eyeball test. 

The article above says it all. Darnold outperformed Allen in every major statistical category. And the “fumbling problems” that Darnold had in college now seem to be more of a Josh Allen problem in the NFL. 

Cool story.  

As I said, it's May and that article is looking at 2019, which is over, and in which Buffalo was the better team, a playoff team. 

Sam being "better" by some thin stat margin in a few stats in 2019 means very little now.  That season is over. 

It's also funny, because Jets Fans have constantly said Allen sucks, but Sam is barely ahead of him in a few production metrics (and well behind in others).  Being a tiny bit better than a guy who "sucks" isn't really high praise, or a high bar is it?

I'm more interested in looking forward. 

Will the "best QB in the AFC East" produce to starting QB average or above levels in the major QB production stats, passing yards, TD's, etc.

Will he play all 16 games in 2020?  Will he throw for over 4,000 yards?  Throw 30 TD's?  Throw less than 15 INT's?

That's what I care about.  I'll save my praise for after Sam, the 27th rated QB in the NFL in 2019, actually earns it in 2020.  And all I am asking for is average at least.  15th rated or better.

[slats]

11 hours ago, Prez33 said:

I think Bills fans are excited about the future. The Bills made the playoffs last year. Yes, their o-line was better than ours, and their defense was pretty good, too. 
 

But Allen is a starting QB in this league. And he showed me enough to prove he’ll be their QB for the next 10 years. 

Allen's a poor man's Cam Newton, and Cam only made it to nine years. I suspect the Bills are going to have a little struggle deciding whether or not to give him $100M guaranteed in a couple years. You're describing Sanchez here except that Sanchez actually won playoff games, too. No one looks back on his extension and says, "that was a good idea!" 

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Allen's a poor man's Cam Newton, and Cam only made it to nine years. I suspect the Bills are going to have a little struggle deciding whether or not to give him $100M guaranteed in a couple years. You're describing Sanchez here except that Sanchez actually won playoff games, too. No one looks back on his extension and says, "that was a good idea!" 

Sanchez’s contract was the equivalent of buying your lady a diamond ring after she finds out you were diddling her cousin. 

[ChuckkieB]

I have full confidence that Sam Darnold will have a better and longer career than Allen. 

[GKnight83]

Unfortunately, for now, Allen also has more wins - which is the only thing that matters!

[Prez33]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Cool story.  

As I said, it's May and that article is looking at 2019, which is over, and in which Buffalo was the better team, a playoff team. 

Sam being "better" by some thin stat margin in a few stats in 2019 means very little now.  That season is over. 

It's also funny, because Jets Fans have constantly said Allen sucks, but Sam is barely ahead of him in a few production metrics (and well behind in others).  Being a tiny bit better than a guy who "sucks" isn't really high praise, or a high bar is it?

I'm more interested in looking forward. 

Will the "best QB in the AFC East" produce to starting QB average or above levels in the major QB production stats, passing yards, TD's, etc.

Will he play all 16 games in 2020?  Will he throw for over 4,000 yards?  Throw 30 TD's?  Throw less than 15 INT's?

That's what I care about.  I'll save my praise for after Sam, the 27th rated QB in the NFL in 2019, actually earns it in 2020.  And all I am asking for is average at least.  15th rated or better.

The original question was “who’s the best QB in the AFC East”?  I wasn’t comparing him to anyone other than the other three teams. 
 

I never said Allen sucks. To the contrary, I said he was pretty good when he wasn’t turning it over. He had a better o-line and defense behind him than Darnold, too. That’s why they made the playoffs. 
 

Some people feel Fitz is the best. To each his own. I remember Fitzmagic quickly turning into “thank God we didn’t give him a big extension” after 2016. And the Patriots, that doesn’t even need to be stated. 
 

I’m in full agreement that Darnold needs to progress, just like most young QB’s. Getting him better blockers and weapons should move that process right along. And the 16 games are more realistic when freak occurrences like Mono don’t pop up. 

[Warfish]

So through two seasons, the two look pretty damn neck and neck to me. 

One does more by running, one by passing, but so what, a yard gained is a yard gained.  

Sam is 11-15.  Allan is 15-12.

Sam has a 59.9 Comp. %.  Allen has a 56.3 %.

Sam has 5.889 Passing Yards.  Allen has 5,163.

Sam has 200 Rushing Yards and 3 Rushing TD's.  Allen has 1,141 and 17 Rushing TD's.

Sam has 6,089 Total Yards.  Allen has 6,304.

Sam has 36 passing TD's (4.2%).  Allen has 30 (3.8%).  Fitzpatrick is 4.4% and Tannehill is 4.5% for reference/comparison purposes.

Sam has 26 INT's (3.3%).  Allen has 21 (2.7%).  Fitzpatrick is 3.4% and Tannehill is 2.5% for reference/comparison purposes.

Sam has 16 Fumbles.  Allen has 22.

Sam QB Rating is 81.1.  Allen is 78.2.  Fitzpatrick is 81.6 and Tannehill is 89.8 for reference/comparison purposes.

So yeah, these two look to be basically on-par with each other production wise. 

In the major overall production metrics, they're close:  

Sam has produced 6,089 total offensive yards, Allen 6,304.  

Sam has produced 39 total offensive touchdowns, Allen 47.

Sam has produced 11 wins.  Allen 15.

Sam has 0 playoff games.  Allen 1.

All the major metrics above, Allen is ahead, admittedly while playing for a more talented team and one additional game.

I'm not seeing this huge difference between the two in favor of San so far.  And both are well behind guys THIS fan-base has said "suck" like Fitzy and Tannehill by a margin, and behind the elite guys in the NFL by a wide margin.

Like I said, lets see what happens in 2020.  Making loud proclamations on the above is (IMO) silly.   

 

[greenwichjetfan]

12 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So through two seasons, the two look pretty damn neck and neck to me. 

One does more by running, one by passing, but so what, a yard gained is a yard gained.  

Sam is 11-15.  Allan is 15-12.

Sam has a 59.9 Comp. %.  Allen has a 56.3 %.

Sam has 5.889 Passing Yards.  Allen has 5,163.

Sam has 200 Rushing Yards and 3 Rushing TD's.  Allen has 1,141 and 17 Rushing TD's.

Sam has 6,089 Total Yards.  Allen has 6,304.

Sam has 36 passing TD's (4.2%).  Allen has 30 (3.8%).  Fitzpatrick is 4.4% and Tannehill is 4.5% for reference/comparison purposes.

Sam has 26 INT's (3.3%).  Allen has 21 (2.7%).  Fitzpatrick is 3.4% and Tannehill is 2.5% for reference/comparison purposes.

Sam has 16 Fumbles.  Allen has 22.

Sam QB Rating is 81.1.  Allen is 78.2.  Fitzpatrick is 81.6 and Tannehill is 89.8 for reference/comparison purposes.

So yeah, these two look to be basically on-par with each other production wise. 

In the major overall production metrics, they're close:  

Sam has produced 6,089 total offensive yards, Allen 6,304.  

Sam has produced 39 total offensive touchdowns, Allen 47.

Sam has produced 11 wins.  Allen 15.

Sam has 0 playoff games.  Allen 1.

All the major metrics above, Allen is ahead, admittedly while playing for a more talented team and one additional game.

I'm not seeing this huge difference between the two in favor of San so far.  And both are well behind guys THIS fan-base has said "suck" like Fitzy and Tannehill by a margin, and behind the elite guys in the NFL by a wide margin.

Like I said, lets see what happens in 2020.  Making loud proclamations on the above is (IMO) silly.   

 

Good post if looking only at numbers on paper. Have you ever watched either of their games?

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

Sanchez’s contract was the equivalent of buying your lady a diamond ring after she finds out you were diddling her cousin. 

God, I wish Peyton were Sanchez's cousin. At least then the Jets would be great by association (and diddling). 

[Barry McCockinner]

20 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Good post if looking only at numbers on paper. Have you ever watched either of their games?

Sam hasn't performed nearly as well as some fans seem to believe he has. You have to watch him play without the green shaded glasses on. His production is what the numbers say it is.

He has a lot of potential and the team around him hasn't been great. Hopefully they've moved the needle in the right direction there and we see more of his potential turn into production. Until that happens is just hopes and dreams.

[greenwichjetfan]

2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Sam hasn't performed nearly as well as some fans seem to believe he has. You have to watch him play without the green shaded glasses on.

I don't know where to find green shaded glasses, so lets assume I'm watching with regular shaded glasses. In this scenario, Darnold has performed his functions as a QB better than Allen in every aspect other than QB running. That's not a high bar because Allen isn't anything special, but then we were never talking about these two relative to the rest of the league anyway. 

[Barry McCockinner]

3 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I don't know where to find green shaded glasses, so lets assume I'm watching with regular shaded glasses. In this scenario, Darnold has performed his functions as a QB better than Allen in every aspect other than QB running. That's not a high bar because Allen isn't anything special, but then we were never talking about these two relative to the rest of the league anyway. 

He's been a hair better than Allen as a passer which is as you correctly stated, not a high bar. Allen has lead his offense to more points, which is more important to winning football games than being a hair better as a passer.

[Warfish]

40 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Good post if looking only at numbers on paper. Have you ever watched either of their games?

Spare me the "Jets Fan eye test" fallacy, please.

Arguments that start with "well, that yard Sam gained LOOKED really legit, unlike that yard Allen gained" are just....yeah. Lol, seriously.

If Sam is the better QB, and we ALL hope he is, we can and should expect him to blow Allen out of the water in 2020.  

[southparkcpa]

2 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Good post if looking only at numbers on paper. Have you ever watched either of their games?

Results matter. The eye test is for losers. Love Darnold but getting blown out by Cincinnati etc has to stop.

[Warfish]

10 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Love Darnold but getting blown out by Cincinnati etc has to stop.

But you see, he LOOKED good losing to the Bengals, so really that should be considered a win, because he shoulda won, because he passed the eye test, and anyway, it's everyone else's fault they lost really, etc, etc, etc.  ?

I like Sam, I like him as a prospect, and he seems like a good kid, to be very clear.  He's young, and he still has time, albeit not that much anymore before a long-term expensive decision needs to be made on him.  

But end of the day, it's his production that matters, wins and offense.  Looking to see him show us in 2020.

[southparkcpa]

33 minutes ago, Warfish said:

But you see, he LOOKED good losing to the Bengals, so really that should be considered a win, because he shoulda won, because he passed the eye test, and anyway, it's everyone else's fault they lost really, etc, etc, etc.  ?

I like Sam, I like him as a prospect, and he seems like a good kid, to be very clear.  He's young, and he still has time, albeit not that much anymore before a long-term expensive decision needs to be made on him.  

But end of the day, it's his production that matters, wins and offense.  Looking to see him show us in 2020.

I get your humor but he actually looked like shlt that day. I believe we were shutout?   That's the "JUNK" science approach. Use should have, could have , would have, etc. to base an argument.   You and I are old enough to want results.

[NYJ1]

I really think this article was obviously written by someone who was biased. I'm not putting much stock in it. With that said, just like the author I'm comfortable saying Sam Darnold was the top prospect in the 2018 and I still think he is today. Allen still relies too much on running the ball. He has yet to prove he can become a good pocket passer. He's definitely proven he can run the bll, however I doubt that's what Buffalo was looking for when they drafted him. Sam Darnolds statistics are slightly better than Allen's. I'm thinking with improved talent around Darnold he'll silence any comparisons to Allen. To me, Allen will be a backup someday soon. Arnold is a franchise QB.

[greenwichjetfan]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Spare me the "Jets Fan eye test" fallacy, please.

Arguments that start with "well, that yard Sam gained LOOKED really legit, unlike that yard Allen gained" are just....yeah. Lol, seriously.

If Sam is the better QB, and we ALL hope he is, we can and should expect him to blow Allen out of the water in 2020.  

 

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

Results matter. The eye test is for losers. Love Darnold but getting blown out by Cincinnati etc has to stop.

Good talk guys. You guys sure have the market cornered on how to project future returns based exclusively on non-contextualized history! 

The odd thing is that I actually agreed that his numbers on paper warrant the skepticism and wanted to discuss the qualitative aspect of the analysis, but I guess anything less than a green up-vote automatically gets the oddly aggro response.

[Warfish]

11 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

 

Good talk guys. You guys sure have the market cornered on how to project future returns based exclusively on non-contextualized history! 

The odd thing is that I actually agreed that his numbers on paper warrant the skepticism and wanted to discuss the qualitative aspect of the analysis, but I guess anything less than a green up-vote automatically gets the oddly aggro response.

A thoughtful analysis would be great.  

Fluff about "eye tests" is just fluff, mate.

Nothing aggro about my replies, same as my replies for the last 20 years.  Sorry if my tone offends.  

 

[greenwichjetfan]

Just now, Warfish said:

A thoughtful analysis would be great.  

Fluff about "eye tests" is just fluff, mate.

Nothing aggro about my replies, same as my replies for the last 20 years.  Sorry if my tone offends.  

 

I’ve known you many years dating back to JI. I know you enough to know that if I had typed out a thoughtful analysis, it would have been met with a sentence that started with “spare me the”, because you refuse to entertain any type of projections for anything. Even in the draft threads where the entire idea of a draft is to take what was done in college and project it for the future - you cling to the college career numbers. So I decided this time to ask you a question instead, but still got the “spare me”. So, good talk.

It doesn’t offend, I’m just stating what it is. Oddly aggro for someone who didn’t even want to entertain the idea of a discussion on a discussion forum.

[Losmeister]

btw, as @Warfish mentrioned above...  the only reason i bring up Fitz is cos he is generally reviled around here for havng a bad year after the Jets dicked around after he had a good year (with a bad last game) in 2015...     Fitz had been better than Sam the last 2 years. ANd I am not a Fitz fan, i simply respect the weird career he has carved for himslef and recognize he plays above average sometimes.As he has teh last 2 years...

yall INFANTALIZE Sam.  "He's just a baby" Well, i wnat a MAN Qb. And if he can;t step it up, next QB please...this bottom 6 for a guy we spent the farm on is not acceptable for the investement.

If Mims is who many think he is ( me included) and Perriman is who many think he is ( me N OT included) Sam should be able to produce a year akin to Fitz 2015.

 

 

[Losmeister]

44 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

I get your humor but he actually looked like shlt that day. I believe we were shutout?   That's the "JUNK" science approach. Use should have, could have , would have, etc. to base an argument.   You and I are old enough to want results.

This "he does things many other Qbs cant" is total garbage. go look at NFL QB hilite reels. 

For me, there are exactly 3 Qbs who fit the above description, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’ve known you many years dating back to JI. I know you enough to know that if I had typed out a thoughtful analysis, it would have been met with a sentence that started with “spare me the”, because you refuse to entertain any type of projections for anything.

You're correct, I generally reject projections based on "muh feels", the "eye test" or some other emotional (i.e. homer usually) based hope.

I don;t think it's hard to separate emotion from analysis.

Analysis would point to increases in Sam's production in 2019 over 2018, and show how that projects out, blah blah blah.

"Sam is the bestest best dreamy QB in the AFC East and Allen is poop" isn't analysis, it's wishful thinking. 

Wishful thinking I may also root for, but still. ?

And as detailed above, it's not even accurate.  Allen produced more in every major metric than Sam so far.  To reach an alternate conclusion, you basically have to eliminate value from rushing production, i.e. you cook the books to make Sam better by ignoring what Allen is good at to do so.

Quote

Even in the draft threads where the entire idea of a draft is to take what was done in college and project it for the future - you cling to the college career numbers.

Over workout wonders who only rose to attention and prominence during the combine because of a single 40-yard dash time, for example?

Absolutely.  I'm hardly alone, plenty of NFL GM's think the same way as I do. 

Quote

So I decided this time to ask you a question instead, but still got the “spare me”. So, good talk.

It doesn’t offend, I’m just stating what it is. Oddly aggro for someone who didn’t even want to entertain the idea of a discussion on a discussion forum.

And yet here we are, having a discussion anyway.

Also, I would think someone who knows my posting for years would know when I'm really aggro.  This is as calm and cool as could be by comparison, this exchange is like a warm summer breeze from my perspective, lol. ?

[JustInFudge]

12 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

btw, as @Warfish mentrioned above...  the only reason i bring up Fitz is cos he is generally reviled around here for havng a bad year after the Jets dicked around after he had a good year (with a bad last game) in 2015...     Fitz had been better than Sam the last 2 years. ANd I am not a Fitz fan, i simply respect the weird career he has carved for himslef and recognize he plays above average sometimes.As he has teh last 2 years...

yall INFANTALIZE Sam.  "He's just a baby" Well, i wnat a MAN Qb. And if he can;t step it up, next QB please...this bottom 6 for a guy we spent the farm on is not acceptable for the investement.

If Mims is who many think he is ( me included) and Perriman is who many think he is ( me N OT included) Sam should be able to produce a year akin to Fitz 2015.

 

 

Meh, not the best comparison.  Last year Sam was the youngest QB to start week 1.  Fitz was in his 13th season and he played in a loaded offense with our Head Coaches mentor who happens to be an offensive guru with weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Deshaun Jackson, Adam Humphries and OJ Howard.  lol.  A little different than Sam's situation, no?

You're splitting hairs to say Fitz was better than Sam last year....just because he threw for more yards?  meh.  Pretty even.  If ask me.

 

[Losmeister]

4 minutes ago, JiF said:

You're splitting hairs to say Fitz was better than Sam last year....just because he threw for more yards?  meh.  Pretty even.  If ask me.

the metrics say otherwise...

ya think Sam coulda beat the Pats at Gillette when they had homefield advantage on the line?

[Losmeister]

people conflate their claims at talent analysis being lightly dismissed as aggression? weird.

[Arsis]

4k yards 26tds 5 ints 66.5 comp, % 100.3 QBR

 

is my psychic prediction.

[JustInFudge]

7 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

the metrics say otherwise...

ya think Sam coulda beat the Pats at Gillette when they had homefield advantage on the line?

15 years from now vs. an an old and battered Brady?  Sure. 

Besides, Mark Sanchez won there in the playoffs, so it's definitely possible. lol

[southparkcpa]

43 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

This "he does things many other Qbs cant" is total garbage. go look at NFL QB hilite reels. 

For me, there are exactly 3 Qbs who fit the above description, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

All 3 of which who our genius GM's passed on.  Except for Jackson, where we were set at QB, the passing of Wilson and Mahomes is criminal. We had NO QB at the time and took Quinton Coples and Stephen Hill instead of Wilson.   

[14 in Green]

We've been having the same discussion, with the same people holding true to the same opinions, for two seasons.

Here's what's true.

1. We gave up a lot of draft capital to get Darnold.

2. Yes, he's still young and has potential (he was the 3rd pick in the draft, so that's a given) that, and a dollar, will buy you a lottery ticket.

Here's what's opinion.

Going into his 3rd year he has yet to convince everyone he's the player we hoped we were getting. He is not a bust, but it's also likely his ceiling isn't as high as was thought.

Allen, Mayfield and Darnold all have two seasons in the books. They've had good and bad moments, but a team can't wait forever for a QB anymore, not with the way these guys are getting paid after a first contract. As of now the only QB from the '18 draft who has proved to be a "hit" is Lamar Jackson. It's up to the others to show their teams chose as wisely as the Ravens did.

 

 

 

[Warfish]

58 minutes ago, JiF said:

Last year Sam was the youngest QB to start week 1.

So?

How many wins did the NFL grant us for having the youngest starting QB?

How many extra first downs did we get from the Refs because Sam was just a widdle kid?

Until the league starts giving us something for Sam's age, this really isn't a valid excuse or topic worth debate. 

He is the starting QB on an NFL team.  If he wasn't ready because of his youth, he shouldn't have been starting.

But he was ready and did start.  He gets judged by the job he is responsible for, like all starting QB's. 

No two or three year mulligans for youth.  He's not a trainee, he's not doing an apprenticeship here.

 

[Warfish]

10 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

We've been having the same discussion, with the same people holding true to the same opinions, for two seasons.

Here's what's true.

1. We gave up a lot of draft capital to get Darnold.

2. Yes, he's still young and has potential ( he was the 3rd pick in the draft, so that's a given)

Here's what's opinion.

Going into his 3rd year he has yet to convince everyone he's the player we hoped we were getting. He is not a bust, but it's also likely his ceiling isn't as high as was thought.

Allen, Mayfield and Darnold all have two seasons in the books. They've had good and bad moments, but a team can't wait forever for a QB anymore, not with the way these guys are getting paid after a first contract. As of now the only QB from the '18 draft who has proved to be a "hit" is Lamar Jackson. It's up to the others to show their teams chose as wisely as the Ravens did.

This is a good post.

[Jet Nut]

 

20 hours ago, Losmeister said:

Still looking up at Fitz...

Still saying the same thing that no one in their right mind would try to see.

You and one eye in the same QB thread.

 

[slats]

I continue to believe that it’s no coincidence that Darnold’s most vocal detractors also live outside the metro NY area. The cold, black & white numbers are not impressive, watching Sam Darnold perform with a cast of clowns around him is. The kid can obviously play. He wouldn’t be the league MVP on the Ravens, but on that team under Harbaugh, they’d be a Super Bowl favorite. Ditto for the Bills. Sam Darnold would make them a much better team and in the AFC Champs discussion rather than the AFCe Champs discussion. 

Football is a team game, and the team around Darnold has been horrendous. He’s on his second head coach, and they probably both suck. Put him in a stable situation with a middling OL and a genuine weapon or two and this isn’t even a conversation. Really hoping the OL and Mims and Perriman make the difference this year. 

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

So through two seasons, the two look pretty damn neck and neck to me. 

One does more by running, one by passing, but so what, a yard gained is a yard gained.  

Sam is 11-15.  Allan is 15-12.

Sam has a 59.9 Comp. %.  Allen has a 56.3 %.

Sam has 5.889 Passing Yards.  Allen has 5,163.

Sam has 200 Rushing Yards and 3 Rushing TD's.  Allen has 1,141 and 17 Rushing TD's.

Sam has 6,089 Total Yards.  Allen has 6,304.

Sam has 36 passing TD's (4.2%).  Allen has 30 (3.8%).  Fitzpatrick is 4.4% and Tannehill is 4.5% for reference/comparison purposes.

Sam has 26 INT's (3.3%).  Allen has 21 (2.7%).  Fitzpatrick is 3.4% and Tannehill is 2.5% for reference/comparison purposes.

Sam has 16 Fumbles.  Allen has 22.

Sam QB Rating is 81.1.  Allen is 78.2.  Fitzpatrick is 81.6 and Tannehill is 89.8 for reference/comparison purposes.

So yeah, these two look to be basically on-par with each other production wise. 

In the major overall production metrics, they're close:  

Sam has produced 6,089 total offensive yards, Allen 6,304.  

Sam has produced 39 total offensive touchdowns, Allen 47.

Sam has produced 11 wins.  Allen 15.

Sam has 0 playoff games.  Allen 1.

All the major metrics above, Allen is ahead, admittedly while playing for a more talented team and one additional game.

I'm not seeing this huge difference between the two in favor of San so far.  And both are well behind guys THIS fan-base has said "suck" like Fitzy and Tannehill by a margin, and behind the elite guys in the NFL by a wide margin.

Like I said, lets see what happens in 2020.  Making loud proclamations on the above is (IMO) silly.   

 

Holy shlt you're horrid