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New York Jets Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in the AFC East by Evan Desai 10 hours ago Follow @mumbai_desai


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32 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I would hope he has the numbers you suggested and suspect he will but you described them as average when if he does that he will  be closer to elite. Using "average" stats in the NFL is meaningless, you have to use medians to really see what is average, so again your expectations for average are way off.

So educate me, what numbers should I be expecting/demanding, as you see it?  

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24 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So educate me, what numbers should I be expecting/demanding, as you see it?  

In the NFL the average QB is the one in the middle of the pack say 15th or 16th. If we want to look at what is typical it would not make sense to use an average since outliers skew the data too much, rather you look at the median (the point where there are the same number above and below. Since there are 32 we can't be exact but lets choose 16( 15 above. 16 below).

In that case, here is what average (based on median) would be:

YARDS 2019: 3603 (Kirk Cousins) 2018: 3777 (Stafford) 3324 (Prescott)

TDS: 2019: 22 (Goff, Mayfield) 2018 22 (Prescott) 2017 21 (Bortles)

INTS: 2019:  9 (Josh Allen) 2018 11 (Manning) 2017 11 (Wilson)

Qb Rating:: 91.2 (Minshew)  2018 95.4 (Trubisky) 2017 89.2 (Taylor)

Now the average of the medians would provide a really good baseline for the "average" QB over time:

Yards: 3568

TDS: 22

INTS: 10

QB Rating: 91.9

So if Darnold is around those in each category he would be roughly "average" in any given NFL season. 

HOWEVER

There is an interesting note here:

When I did the research over all the 3 years Prescott was consistently right around 16 in all these stats each year.

Prescott is in line to get one of the highest QB contracts in the NFL.

So reality is that is you can perform "average" in all these 4 categories (much less than your numbers) than you are actually borderline elite in the NFL.

What you are really grading Darnold against is probably Top 4 level performance in the NFL which is fine given where he was drafted, but he is close already and if he improves as we expect him to, he WILL be pretty much elite. 

These numbers just show how silly good the Bradys, Breeses and Rodgersss of the league really are

 

 

 

 

 

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In the NFL the average QB is the one in the middle of the pack say 15th or 16th. If we want to look at what is typical it would not make sense to use an average since outliers skew the data too much, rather you look at the median (the point where there are the same number above and below. Since there are 32 we can't be exact but lets choose 16( 15 above. 16 below).
 


This is a solid point and one that I hope people consider in their expectations for next year.


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5 hours ago, Warfish said:

it's amazing the lengths some will go to avoid using plain, old, production to judge Sam Darnold. 

Its amazing how its always those who dont understand the position who want to recite numbers as the end all be all to judge a QB and lecture others over those numbers.  And then say things as meaningless as he should be developed after two seasons. You know because we traded to move up top get him. 

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15 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Yards: 3568

TDS: 22

INTS: 10

QB Rating: 91.9

So if Darnold is around those in each category he would be roughly "average" in any given NFL season. 

Interesting.

If Sam threw for that low of yardage in 2019, he's have been about equal to Ryan Fitzpatrick (3,529 Yards), except Fitzy only played 13 games.

So are you saying that Sam over 16 games shouldn't be expected to out-produce Fitzy if Fitzy only played 13 games?

Fitzy (again, in 13 games) had 20 TD's and 13 INT's.  Pretty similar (albeit worse) than your 22/10 number.

So are you saying that old man Fitzpatrick-level production is what we should expect from Sam, and expecting more is too much?

Your numbers are basically Kyler Murrey as-a-rookie production.  He produced 3,722 yards, 20 TD's, 12 INT's.  As a rookie.  For crappy Arizona.  Surely Sam should do better than that?

Quote

When I did the research over all the 3 years Prescott was consistently right around 16 in all these stats each year.

Dak in 2019:  4,902 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 11 INT's.  And we have no shortage of Jets Fans who say he's pedestrian, replaceable, nothing special.

I'll repeat, it seems this Board (and the Fanbase in general) is of two very seperate and distinct minds:  

-On one hand, they have declared Sam Darnold to be a special, elite, uncanny, generational talent who "does things no other QB can do", and is vastly superior to almost all other NFL QB's, "except maybe Mahomes" as one poster put it, and definitely better than guys who "suck" like Prescott, Allen, Mayfield, Wilson, Jackson, etc.

-On the other hand, many of those same folks continue to set extremely low levels of expectations for Sam's production, cautioning that routinely exceeded numbers like say, 4,000 yards, or 30 TD's, or 15 or fewer INT's, are borderline impossible to reach and should never be expected.

Let me put it another way, the QB I desperately wanted to select, Watson, put up 3,852 yards, 26 TD's and 12 INT's last year.

Is Sam better than Watson or not?  Watson was in his third year last year, Sam is in his third year now.  Why shouldn't we expect Sam to meet or exceed Watson's production?  Are we back to blaming every other player on the roster for Sam's lackings?

Frankly, I'm sick of this as a Jets Fan, always having to make excuses for why we never have high-level production from our #1 QB.  We spent a ton to get Sam, he was supposed to be the best prospect that year and more, and he's been handed the job without having to earn a thing he's that valued.  Isn't it about damn time he produce like a generational best-in-draft-class QB, at least a little?

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Jets have the QB edge for sure...to go along with a much improved OL. 

You have as starting offensive skill players...Mims-Perriman-Crowder-Herndon and Bell in the passing game...for Darnold to throw too.  IMO the D is also improved.  And can be anywhere from a top 10 to top 5...depending how much improved play QW brings to the team. 

All this will propel Jets into serious contention for the AFCE.

Jets take opener against bills...27-16.  And take the AFCE...with 11-5 record.  Bring it on...

Can't wait!

 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Interesting.

If Sam threw for that low of yardage in 2019, he's have been about equal to Ryan Fitzpatrick (3,529 Yards), except Fitzy only played 13 games.

So are you saying that Sam over 16 games shouldn't be expected to out-produce Fitzy if Fitzy only played 13 games?

Fitzy (again, in 13 games) had 20 TD's and 13 INT's.  Pretty similar (albeit worse) than your 22/10 number.

So are you saying that old man Fitzpatrick-level production is what we should expect from Sam, and expecting more is too much?

Your numbers are basically Kyler Murrey as-a-rookie production.  He produced 3,722 yards, 20 TD's, 12 INT's.  As a rookie.  For crappy Arizona.  Surely Sam should do better than that?

Dak in 2019:  4,902 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 11 INT's.  And we have no shortage of Jets Fans who say he's pedestrian, replaceable, nothing special.

I'll repeat, it seems this Board (and the Fanbase in general) is of two very seperate and distinct minds:  

-On one hand, they have declared Sam Darnold to be a special, elite, uncanny, generational talent who "does things no other QB can do", and is vastly superior to almost all other NFL QB's, "except maybe Mahomes" as one poster put it, and definitely better than guys who "suck" like Prescott, Allen, Mayfield, Wilson, Jackson, etc.

-On the other hand, many of those same folks continue to set extremely low levels of expectations for Sam's production, cautioning that routinely exceeded numbers like say, 4,000 yards, or 30 TD's, or 15 or fewer INT's, are borderline impossible to reach and should never be expected.

Let me put it another way, the QB I desperately wanted to select, Watson, put up 3,852 yards, 26 TD's and 12 INT's last year.

Is Sam better than Watson or not?  Watson was in his third year last year, Sam is in his third year now.  Why shouldn't we expect Sam to meet or exceed Watson's production?  Are we back to blaming every other player on the roster for Sam's lackings?

Frankly, I'm sick of this as a Jets Fan, always having to make excuses for why we never have high-level production from our #1 QB.  We spent a ton to get Sam, he was supposed to be the best prospect that year and more, and he's been handed the job without having to earn a thing he's that valued.  Isn't it about damn time he produce like a generational best-in-draft-class QB, at least a little?

I am not saying that is what we should expect from Sam at all. I am just showing that the view of "average" in the NFL is a much higher level of performance than it actuallyt is. I think Sam is going to be the guy you want him to be in 2020 over 4000 around 30TDs and better at INTs but maybe not yet to the level we want. 

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On 5/18/2020 at 6:58 PM, Losmeister said:

it's the question of a limited mentality...   what kind of dumfuq even asks if a baby can play professional sports? for reals?

I asked if you would trade Sam for Ryan.

Yes, I did exaggerate my point.

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5 minutes ago, Snook said:

I asked if you would trade Sam for Ryan.

I wouldn't.

Sam is younger and has two years before any big $$ decision needs to be made, and continues to have potential future upside. 

Fitzy is old and at the end of his career with no future upside.

The fact that that question even has to be asked says alot about Sam's production in his first two years, because yeah, Fitzy has produced as well or better than Sam has.  And frankly, I think we ALL expected Sam to be better than the Fitzpatricks or other veteran castoffs of the recycled NFL trash-heap.

It's why I keep saying two things: 

1. Lets forget the last two year, 2020 is the year to truly judge Sam Darnold.

2. Lets stop pretending he's a top 5 QB right now when he's a bottom 5 QB right now with alot to prove in 2020.

Hope combined with a tough "better get better dude" expectation is, IMO, the right take for Sam right now.

And not, as stated, the hyperbolic over the top fluffing of him as some great player.  He's not.  Yet.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Lets stop pretending he's a top 5 QB right now when he's a bottom 5 QB right now with alot to prove in 2020.

Hope combined with a tough "better get better dude" expectation is, IMO, the right take for Sam right now.

And not, as stated, the hyperbolic over the top fluffing of him as some great player.  He's not.  Yet.

This.

Again, the only reason I bring up Fitz is cos he is an old retread who has carved himself a career in the NFL unexpecetedly, by having a smattering of above averege seasons, who once had a pretty nice season as a NYJ QB.   

Sam is an " I aint done sh*t yet" young QB withe EVERYTHING to prove. All this "holding him back" is magical thinking.

And, also again, Sam seems like a really decent young guy. Good kid. I like him. I just want wayyyyyyy more for the #6 and 3 2nds....

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On 5/19/2020 at 6:58 AM, Warfish said:

Frankly, I'm sick of this as a Jets Fan, always having to make excuses for why we never have high-level production from our #1 QB.  We spent a ton to get Sam, he was supposed to be the best prospect that year and more, and he's been handed the job without having to earn a thing he's that valued.  Isn't it about damn time he produce like a generational best-in-draft-class QB, at least a little?

Season 3 Villanelle GIF by BBC America

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On 5/18/2020 at 5:23 PM, JetFreak89 said:

This is a solid point and one that I hope people consider in their expectations for next year.

 

@Warfish

JetNation will lower the expectation to the point where they will post masturbating GIFs if Sam is an average NFL QB...

ewww

#JetNationLovesMediocrity

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7 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

@Warfish

JetNation will lower the expectation to the point where they will post masturbating GIFs if Sam is an average NFL QB...

ewww

#JetNationLovesMediocrity

It's not our fault that some can't distinguish the difference between average and median when the same people are calling for him to be a Top 15 QB. If you have a goal you want to set for Darnold next year, you should probably understand what that goal actually is. 

Then again, I'm not sure why I am trying to argue with a poster that uses "dumfuq" and "ewww" not ironically in their posts. 

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Not to take any credit away from Josh Allen but I genuinely see Sam dominating the AFC East the next decade with Brady being gone. From a football fan perspective it is great to see both Allen and Darnold in the same division, two great players and friends who will have their moments throughout the years. 

In the words of one Mr Terrell Owens . GETCHA POPCORN READY! 

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20 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

@Warfish

JetNation will lower the expectation to the point where they will post masturbating GIFs if Sam is an average NFL QB...

ewww

#JetNationLovesMediocrity

 

I don't love mediocrity at all.  Its just a sad truth that an average NFL QB would be better than anything the Jets have had in three decades, outside of these few exceptions:

  • 1998 Testaverde
  • 2002 Pennington
  • 2008 Favre (first 11 games only)
  • 2015 Fitzpatrick

That's it.  Those 2 full seasons and 2 partial seasons were the only times in the last 3 decades that we've seen above average QB play out of a Jets QB. 

The rest of the time has ranged from below average to "worst QB play of all-time" levels.  

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On 5/18/2020 at 8:56 AM, Warfish said:

Cool story.  

As I said, it's May and that article is looking at 2019, which is over, and in which Buffalo was the better team, a playoff team. 

Sam being "better" by some thin stat margin in a few stats in 2019 means very little now.  That season is over. 

It's also funny, because Jets Fans have constantly said Allen sucks, but Sam is barely ahead of him in a few production metrics (and well behind in others).  Being a tiny bit better than a guy who "sucks" isn't really high praise, or a high bar is it?

I'm more interested in looking forward. 

Will the "best QB in the AFC East" produce to starting QB average or above levels in the major QB production stats, passing yards, TD's, etc.

Will he play all 16 games in 2020?  Will he throw for over 4,000 yards?  Throw 30 TD's?  Throw less than 15 INT's?

That's what I care about.  I'll save my praise for after Sam, the 27th rated QB in the NFL in 2019, actually earns it in 2020.  And all I am asking for is average at least.  15th rated or better.

Why don't you save all your pessimistic opinions till then too! We all have heard them too many times already.

giphy.gif

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52 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't love mediocrity at all.  Its just a sad truth that an average NFL QB would be better than anything the Jets have had in three decades, outside of these few exceptions:

  • 1998 Testaverde
  • 2002 Pennington
  • 2008 Favre (first 11 games only)
  • 2015 Fitzpatrick

That's it.  Those 2 full seasons and 2 partial seasons were the only times in the last 3 decades that we've seen above average QB play out of a Jets QB. 

The rest of the time has ranged from below average to "worst QB play of all-time" levels.  

BINGO...btw you might add 2 more decades and another season and a half Obrine (sic) 1985 and 1986

Which is why I have to attempt to buck the tsunami of BS that is flowing here at JetNation claiming a bottom tier QB is "special and does things few other QBs can do and whose floor is Rivers level production"

So far? A significantly overrated prospect who has underperformed after their team spent a #6 and 3 second rounders to obtain.

@JetFreak89   how else would you attempt to express revulsion/disgust in response to people who post masturbating/ejaculation GIFs when Sam completes a few passes in training camp? 

 

 

C';mon jetnation...   just go watch some Andy Dalton hilites, throw in some Grander Minshew...  pro QBs make some plays...

Sam has not demonstrably seperated himself as a talent level ABOVE these players 

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1 minute ago, Losmeister said:

C';mon jetnation...   just go watch some Andy Dalton hilites, throw in some Grander Minshew...  pro QBs make some plays...

Sam has not demonstrably seperated himself as a talent level ABOVE these players 

Personally I think Darnold's floor is Dalton, and his numbers line up with that.  But that's not a great floor.  It only means he's not a Sanchez/Geno.

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14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Personally I think Darnold's floor is Dalton, and his numbers line up with that.  But that's not a great floor.  It only means he's not a Sanchez/Geno.

Things is, his CEILING may be where AD's ceiling is as well...  cos he hasnt even played as well as Andy's best seasons yet...

( i think anyone who hasa  beef with me and my take on Sambone will see that I have never stooped to comparing him to Sanchez or Geno)

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3 hours ago, Eaton Beaver said:

Why don't you save all your pessimistic opinions till then too! We all have heard them too many times already.

giphy.gif

We haven't made the postseason in a decade, we're been horrible for much of that time, and our elite, special, does stuff no one else can Franchise QB was in the bottom of the NFL and missed time in both of his seasons to-date.  Seasons in which we weren't close to competitive, and one where we set an NFL record for losing to winless teams.

And you ask why the glass is half empty?

giphy.gif

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On 5/18/2020 at 6:58 PM, Losmeister said:

it's the question of a limited mentality...   what kind of dumfuq even asks if a baby can play professional sports? for reals?

This was an answer to your implying  that age doesn't matter. Did I exaggerate ? Yes. Are you now saying it does?

Sam seems to have eyes in the back of his head (can't teach that). He does things which can make a person say WOW (both ways at this point but the negatives are correctable)

While he hasn't lit the NFL on fire, and while I agree he is what he is untill proving otherwise, I feel he deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point. The OL bit, the receivers sucked and the play calling wasn't very good. With the way  Sam seems to handle things,  I think this adversity Is something he'll learn from.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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from CHughes at the Athletic...

@HakeemWats: Will Sam Darnold ever be a top-five quarterback in the league?

HUGHES: Great question.

People ask me about Darnold all the time. Jets fans. Eagles fans (I’m from South Jersey). Friends. Family. And ever since his rookie year, I’ve answered it the same way.

I started covering the NFL in 2014 — training camp with the Giants. It was Ben McAdoo’s first season as the team’s offensive coordinator, and Eli Manning looked terrible. I then started covering the Jets. Oh how many Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg and Jake Heaps quarterback report cards have my byline on them. Point being: I’ve never seen a franchise quarterback before. I can’t tell you what Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck looked like as rookies. I can’t tell you what Deshaun Watson did his first and second year in training camp. Because I’ve never covered a true Pro Bowl, all-pro, top-five quarterback.

What I can say is that Sam Darnold is different. He’s different than everyone I’ve ever covered or seen before. He was like that at OTAs his rookie year. And minicamp. And training camp. I remember an 11-on-11 drill in early August where he went through five reads before checking down to Bilal Powell in the flat for a touchdown. Those other guys never did that. They took a sack. Threw it away. Threw an interception.

Does that mean Darnold is destined for superstardom? Or is he simply better than the slop I covered 2014 through 2016? I don’t know. I think he is. If he eliminates the turnovers, stays healthy, and the Jets continue to surround him with talent. But I don’t know for sure because there is no other top quarterback to compare him to.

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