Sams contract next year

[Prodigal Syndicate]

15 hours ago, BCJet said:

Tannenhill just got a 4 year deal for $118 with $62 guaranteed and hes coming off 2 seasons where he didnt crack 3000 yards either time and had 17 tds in 2018 and 22 in 2019.

If Sam goes for 3200 with 25-12 line that will rightly be considered franchise QB numbers and he will be in line for an extension.

And I would say the titans were dumb for giving him that contract. The running game was that entire offense. Soon as it was shut down they were toast. Regardless of that, they did make a playoff run with him at QB. We have 2 losing seasons with Darnold.

Just because they handed out a dumb contract doesnt mean we should.

I want to see Darnold with a winning record in a season and at bare minimum top 20 QB play, but preferably top 15 before we even think of extensions.

 

Giving out big contracts to mediocre QB's is a big reason so many teams are held back.

 

[David Harris]

This will be the decade of milk and honey. Enough of everyone’s level-headed diplomacy.

Sam Darnold is the sh*t and you should be optimistic AF, allow yourselves to get excited.

We have the best GM in football and the second best young FQB in the NFL. 

 

[Irish Jet]

Definitely needs to show more before we invest the franchise in him completely. Can't have another Sanchez situation. 

If he doesn't have a much improved season then I think we bring in a competitive 2nd QB for 2021. Doubt we'll draft one high unless we've been so bad that we're in top 3 territory and Lawrence/Fields are on the board. 

Confident he will improve if he stays healthy. Still worried about the line and Gase.

 

[talonmm]

15 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

So you dont want him to do well or if he does well you dont want to pay him?

I cant believe paying Sam QB pay is a worry

Of course I want him to do well.  I just hope we don't get into a situation where he turns out ok - and wants to break our bank and prevents us from being able to build a good team around him (like Prescott and the Cowboys are going through).  High priced quarterbacks in the last few seasons have prevented teams from building around them and keeping talent.    

[bla bla bla]

My guess 3 years $120m or 5 years $200m assuming he plays well this year.

[Jet Nut]

38 minutes ago, talonmm said:

Of course I want him to do well.  I just hope we don't get into a situation where he turns out ok - and wants to break our bank and prevents us from being able to build a good team around him (like Prescott and the Cowboys are going through).  High priced quarterbacks in the last few seasons have prevented teams from building around them and keeping talent.    

The nature of the beast.  Until the NFL addresses QB pay being a detriment to building or maintaining a level of play its not going to be easy

[Il Mostro]

On 5/23/2020 at 9:38 PM, Larz said:

Sam is closer to being replaced than getting a $100,000,000 contract 

Not that off the wall of a thought.  I happen to think they've put enough around him to succeed, but the fact is he has not delivered anything in the way of results.  Garbage time wins against weak teams doesn't carry much weight. Sure, he's shown exceptional skills, and there are other reasons contributing to the team's lack of success, but you can only live so long on potential.  The road is littered with big arm QB's who never put it together.  If Sam can delivery with  an improved cast against what appears to be a tough schedule, I think management and most fans will be sold.  If not, there is no reason to dismiss considering other options.

[Dunnie]

This will be the decade of milk and honey. Enough of everyone’s level-headed diplomacy.
Sam Darnold is the sh*t and you should be optimistic AF, allow yourselves to get excited.
We have the best GM in football and the second best young FQB in the NFL. 
 

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[Warfish]

On 5/24/2020 at 9:15 AM, BCJet said:

If Sam goes for 3200 with 25-12 line that will rightly be considered franchise QB numbers and he will be in line for an extension.

It's amazing seeing the expectations for Sam just drop, and drop, drop.  

3,200 yards is a Franchise QB?  Seriously?  That's Mark Sanchez type numbers.  

[funaz]

Lol if he breaks out hell be looking for 40 mil.

While everyone is going bananas over Adams potential deal, what do we think Sams deal will look like next year? Could it be something like 5 years for $100m would be fair I think. Especially if he has his breakout year 

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[Ben]

I think the smart play is to let Darnold play another couple of seasons and re-evaluate where he is before even thinking extension. 

He’s a very young player and the Jets are going to give him every chance to earn that second contract as they should.

[Ben]

23 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Definitely needs to show more before we invest the franchise in him completely. Can't have another Sanchez situation. 

If he doesn't have a much improved season then I think we bring in a competitive 2nd QB for 2021. Doubt we'll draft one high unless we've been so bad that we're in top 3 territory and Lawrence/Fields are on the board. 

Confident he will improve if he stays healthy. Still worried about the line and Gase.

 

This is probably realistic although I think they are more likely to pin the blame on Gase and try to bring in another coach to fix him before cutting the chord. 

To me this is a Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota situation in that the Jets are likely giving this kid the full five year rookie deal to figure it out. 

[Irish Jet]

25 minutes ago, Ben said:

This is probably realistic although I think they are more likely to pin the blame on Gase and try to bring in another coach to fix him before cutting the chord. 

To me this is a Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota situation in that the Jets are likely giving this kid the full five year rookie deal to figure it out. 

Gase will definitely be gone before Sam if we don't perform. Sam will get another year barring complete catastrophe but Gase will be on a short leash. 

May be somewhat justified too. Gase's gameplans last year vs New England and @ Cincinnati were honestly as bad as it gets. Done nothing to help his QB. 

[slats]

10 hours ago, Warfish said:

It's amazing seeing the expectations for Sam just drop, and drop, drop.  

3,200 yards [and 25 TDs and 12 ints] is a Franchise QB?  Seriously?  That's Mark Sanchez type numbers.  

That's certainly less than I'm hoping for. However, if he has around 2000 of those yards and 15 of those TDs in the last eight games of the season, I'll be feeling pretty good about him. I understand how it gets dismissed as, "making excuses," but there's just so much turnover on the Jets offense, with two of those new starters being rookies, that I'm just expecting a slow start for everyone. 

[Warfish]

38 minutes ago, slats said:

That's certainly less than I'm hoping for. However, if he has around 2000 of those yards and 15 of those TDs in the last eight games of the season, I'll be feeling pretty good about him. I understand how it gets dismissed as, "making excuses," but there's just so much turnover on the Jets offense, with two of those new starters being rookies, that I'm just expecting a slow start for everyone. 

I'm not going to dismiss it. 

I'm just going to say, looking around the league in recent years, and at all the "best QB taken last three years" hype, that if Sam Darnold can only put up 3,200 yards in 2020 I'm going to personally be very disappointed in him, in Gase, and in the team for his (IMO) extremely low level of production and performance.

A 3,200 yard passing season is a near-lock for a bottom 5 Offense and losing season in 2020.

[Skeet Ulrich]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'm not going to dismiss it. 

I'm just going to say, looking around the league in recent years, and at all the "best QB taken last three years" hype, that if Sam Darnold can only put up 3,200 yards in 2020 I'm going to personally be very disappointed in him, in Gase, and in the team for his (IMO) extremely low level of production and performance.

A 3,200 yard passing season is a near-lock for a bottom 5 Offense and losing season in 2020.

For reference - Tyrod Taylor threw for 3026 yards, 17 TD and 6 INT in 2016 for the Bills in 15 games. No one wants Tyrod Taylor numbers for Darnold.

Excuses time for Darnold is up. He was drafted top 3. Time to start looking like an upper echelon QB.  3700-3800 yards passing, 26+ passing TDs, less than 15 INT.

[Warfish]

16 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

For reference - Tyrod Taylor threw for 3026 yards, 17 TD and 6 INT in 2016 for the Bills in 15 games. No one wants Tyrod Taylor numbers for Darnold.

Excuses time for Darnold is up. He was drafted top 3. Time to start looking like an upper echelon QB.  3700-3800 yards passing, 26+ passing TDs, less than 15 INT.

3,200 Yards 25 TD and 12 INT.....is basically Gardener Minshew rookie year production.

Except Minshew put up those numbers in only 12 starts.

And Minshew only threw 6 INT's.  Not 12. 

In fairness, he only threw 21 TD's too.  Not 25.

But are we really saying that Sam Darnold, best QB to come out the past three years, that his passing production expectation over 16 games in his third year in the NFL......is sub-6th Round Pick Gardner Minshew rookie-level in 12 starts production? 

Is that what you're saying @BCJet, that failing to materially eclipse Minshews partial rookie season is still enough to get Darnold a Franchise QB-like 2nd contract?

[Skeet Ulrich]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

3,200 Yards 25 TD and 12 INT.....is basically Gardener Minshew rookie year production.

Except Minshew put up those numbers in only 12 starts.

And Minshew only threw 6 INT's.  Not 12. 

In fairness, he only threw 21 TD's too.  Not 25.

But are we really saying that Sam Darnold, best QB to come out the past three years, that his passing production expectation over 16 games in his third year in the NFL......is sub-6th Round Pick Gardner Minshew rookie-level in 12 starts production? 

All I'm asking for is Darnold to put up comparable stats to guys like Jimmy Garoppalo and Deshaun Watson, QBs who people around here swear are overrated and Darnold is better than.

 

[slimjasi]

Way too early to worry about this. 

Like, WAY too early. 

[viffer]

On 5/25/2020 at 11:00 AM, Il Mostro said:

Not that off the wall of a thought.  I happen to think they've put enough around him to succeed, but the fact is he has not delivered anything in the way of results.  Garbage time wins against weak teams doesn't carry much weight. Sure, he's shown exceptional skills, and there are other reasons contributing to the team's lack of success, but you can only live so long on potential.

Put enough around him last two years? What are you smoking? Worst O-line in the league, no receivers whatsoever (and please don't start the Richie nonsense; he was a mediocre receiver at best), no running game, and our best tight end on IR. And he played last season with mono (if you've never had mono let me tell you from personal experience the effects probably lingered through much, if not most, of the season). I definitely want to see more out of Sam this year but saying he had talent around him last year is a joke. He had NOTHING around him and had a fair season.

Let's see how he does if they ever actually do put some talent around him (like, a receiver core...).

[Il Mostro]

1 hour ago, viffer said:

Put enough around him last two years? What are you smoking? Worst O-line in the league, no receivers whatsoever (and please don't start the Richie nonsense; he was a mediocre receiver at best), no running game, and our best tight end on IR. And he played last season with mono (if you've never had mono let me tell you from personal experience the effects probably lingered through much, if not most, of the season). I definitely want to see more out of Sam this year but saying he had talent around him last year is a joke. He had NOTHING around him and had a fair season.

Let's see how he does if they ever actually do put some talent around him (like, a receiver core...).

Did I say they had put enough around him the last two years?  My quote of Larz' comment and response is about how he is judged going forward.  Context Skippy. Try to keep up.

BTW, next time read the entire post or, at the very least, include the whole post when you quote someone.  The part you omitted would have made it abundantly clear that we were addressing the future and that I was giving our franchise QB more than a fair shake.  

[Sperm Edwards]

On 5/24/2020 at 8:20 AM, IndianaJet said:

Jimmy Sexton is his agent.  Sexton isn't going to give the Jets any breaks, even if Sexton is also Gase's and JD's agent.  If you want a play book on how Sexton may handle things, look at Julio Jones' contract situations, Jimmy also represents Julio.

On the one hand, Sam seems to me like the kind of guy who wouldn't want to play these contract games, but on the other hand, he's so young (and frankly somewhat naive) that's he's going to do what Sexton tells him to do.   

Another interesting balance the Jets have to deal with is the potential bust vs. potential breakout.  Can they actually save money by signing him earlier, before a true breakout season vs. signing him early and then wathcing him completely flop.

Yeah but barring seeing him "completely flop" I think the only thing they'd really save on Darnold is inflation. The difference in savings from a top 10-15 QB contract a top 3-5 one (Mahomes alone exempted, as there's only one of him) won't be much in the year it's signed, but that separation will grow rapidly compare to deals signed 3+ years later. So the earlier in, the lower the rate. Getting in 2 years early will become a significant savings later, as 3 years in would have only been 1 year in. Of course this all presumes his improvement and the team's continued commitment to him as their guy.

Remember when deals with Carr, Jimmy G, and Stafford were signed they were top deals in the $25-27MM range. A few years into those contracts, the top deals were $5-10MM higher per season.

There's also some additional spreading out of the SB, which makes it seem like less later on, but the cost is still the same since it's just a form of frontloading. Maybe it feels a little less painful in that he's cuttable/trade-able in an earlier season, if that day ever came during this second contract.

For lesser-priced players/positions I totally agree there's an early cash-in leverage, but not typically for highest end deals. Like it would have saved some to lock up Robby Anderson earlier (never mind over what he'd have gotten in a normal FA season with no covid), but there's no such early-in discount to be had for Adams. But another difference is top picks like Darnold and Adams, unlike the UDFA Anderson, would already be filthy rich even with no second contract. 

Only other concrete early-in team advantage I can think of is if league finances get shuffled a bit for a little longer than this upcoming season due to covid, but the billions in shared money isn't primarily from ticket sales; and a popular, young, starting QB in NY is among the least likely to feel any real difference.