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What makes a draft pick a bust?

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I think it should be reserved because people say it so loosely but what can you do?  For example; Lorenzo Mauldin being called a bust.  Is a 3rd pick a bust in the NFL?  When 80% of 3rd picks have a similar career to Mauldin or worse? 

idk, cant control it.  Just too easy to throw it out there. 

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:


80 % of 3rd round picks are out of the league after 2 seasons?


What is it then?  75%? 

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20 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:




You're not even in the ballpark.

I just looked at the same 2015 draft Mauldin was taken in.  

The following 3rd rounders from that draft are still in the league.  The ones in bold are projected starters in 2020:

  • G A.J. Cann 
  • TE Clive Walford 
  • WR Tyler Lockett (1x Pro Bowler, 1x First Team All-Pro)
  • C Hroniss Grasu
  • G Jamon Brown
  • RB Tevin Coleman
  • WR Chris Conley
  • RB Duke Johnson
  • CB P.J. Williams
  • G Jamon Brown
  • G John Miller
  • LB Jordan Hicks
  • TE Tyler Kroft
  • RB David Johnson (1x Pro Bowler, 1x First Team All-Pro)
  • DE Danielle Hunter (2x Pro Bowler)
  • QB Sean Mannion
  • DT Carl Davis
  • TE Jeff Heuerman
  • DE Henry Anderson
  • RB Ty Montgomery
  • CB Steven Nelson


So out of 34 third round picks from that class, 21 (62 %) are still in the league, and 9 (26 %) have been multi-year starters/projected 2020 starters.  

Only 4 (CB D'Joun Smith, G Jeremiah Poutasi, DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa) including Mauldin were out of the league after 2 seasons.  Less than 9 %.  


11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And yes, the 2015 draft was a good example to compare Mauldin to, because it wasn't a strong draft class.  

2016 had 3rd rounders that included Kevin Byard, Yannick Ngakoue, Joe Thuney, Justin Simmons, Kenyan Drake, Austin Hooper, Kendall Fuller, Jordan Jenkins, Javon Hargrave, Jacoby Brissett, Graham Glasgow and Maliek Collins.  

Bah, sorry, I was thinking of the starter percentages from our draft conversations.  It's like in the high teens or low 20's for starters from the 3rd round.  My bad.  I knew those didnt feel right after hitting send.  lol

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Gotcha.  In that case, 26 % of the 2015 3rd rounders and 35 % of the 2016 3rd rounders are still starters in the league in 2020.  

To not even be in the league by year 3 of their careers make Mauldin and Polite 3rd round busts.  Without a doubt.  

Yeah for sure, I was thinking of the below and that number was higher. lol

Anywho, carry on

Percentage of Total Games Started
Groups Median    
Overall 15.0%    
1st 67.5%    
2nd 33.8%    
3rd 36.3%    

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