What makes a draft pick a bust?

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[New York Mick]

9 hours ago, rangerous said:

good grief.  i'm sure there are quite a few fans who think adams is a bust because he was picked too high in the draft.  like others have said, guys like gholston, deerslayer, faurot, hitman, stewart, hansen, amaro, hill, are all busts.  they just didn't have the desire to play the game and/or do the work needed to make the jump from college to the nfl. 

Who the hell is the deerslayer? 

[Sonny Werblin]

11 hours ago, Jethead said:

Tony Mandarich, Vernon Gholston, Ryan Leaf.....not Bryan Thomas.

Like porn, you know it when you see it.

Totally agree but there is one curious aspect to guys like Gholston. If when you’re picked everyone agrees you are a boom or bust player, are you a bust?  After all, you were forecasted as likely possible bust.

On the other hand, a guy like Leaf was not thought of as boom or bust. Some even had him ahead of Manning.

[Prez33]

11 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

The only people that loosely throw around the word bust are the fans. How many times have we seen Q called a bust on this board after one season where he didn't  even play a full 16 games and played hurt. That said, if a fan expected Q to step on the field and duplicate Donald's 20+ sack season and he doesn't,  he will call him a bust. Is it right, imo no but that isn't  how thst fan feels.

It reveals the absolute worst in fans. Knee jerk reactions based on small sample sizes. 
 

Calling Q Williams a bust at this stage in the game is just the latest example. I fully expect it to get worse for him if he doesn’t have 5 sacks through 5 games. 

[Prez33]

1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

Who the hell is the deerslayer? 

 

[rangerous]

12 hours ago, New York Mick said:

Who the hell is the deerslayer? 

that third round pick mangini made from ohio state.  i forget his name but he played linebacker.  i think it was schlagel.

[Jetsfan80]

16 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Totally agree but there is one curious aspect to guys like Gholston. If when you’re picked everyone agrees you are a boom or bust player, are you a bust?  After all, you were forecasted as likely possible bust.

On the other hand, a guy like Leaf was not thought of as boom or bust. Some even had him ahead of Manning.

I still maintain that the hate on the Gholston pick went too far.  He's not even in the top 10 of worst picks in Jets history.  

We needed a pass rusher (and still have ever since 2005).  We went after one with elite measurables, which you absolutely have to have to become an effective NFL pass rusher:

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, rangerous said:

that third round pick mangini made from ohio state.  i forget his name but he played linebacker.  i think it was schlagel.

That would be the Boar Hunter.

[CanadaSteve]

Here is what makes a draft pick a bust:

[Jetscode1]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I still maintain that the hate on the Gholston pick went too far.  He's not even in the top 10 of worst picks in Jets history.  

We needed a pass rusher (and still have ever since 2005).  We went after one with elite measurables, which you absolutely have to have to become an effective NFL pass rusher:

Gholston was a bust!  The historical blundering of previous Jets drafts does not change this fact.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Jetscode1 said:

Gholston was a bust!  The historical blundering of previous Jets drafts does not change this fact.  

Never said he wasn't a bust, lol.  

[Jetscode1]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Never said he wasn't a bust, lol.  

Then "the hate" was justified.  lol

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Jetscode1 said:

Then "the hate" was justified.  lol

Not all busts are equal.  There are people here who call the Gholston pick the worst in franchise history.  That's simply not true.  If there's solid logic behind the pick, I'm willing to give more of a benefit of the doubt. 

The Mangini-Tannenbaum duo brought the franchise Brick, Mangold, Revis and David Harris.  The Gholston slip-up wasn't too bad in that light.  

[Jetscode1]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Not all busts are equal.  If there's solid logic behind the pick, I'm willing to give more of a benefit of the doubt.  The Mangini-Tannenbaum duo brought the franchise Brick, Mangold, Revis and David Harris.  The Gholston slip-up wasn't too bad in that light.  

Fair point but the criticisms of Ghoston the player was earned.  The dude got paid and then just flat out sucked.  As far as the front office, I get it, they made a logical, but poor choice but there should have been a serious lesson learned in the debrief.  

[OCCH23]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Not all busts are equal.  There are people here who call the Gholston pick the worst in franchise history.  

In all honesty I can't think of a "bust" bigger than Gholston -- he checked EVERY box.  Can you name a bigger one?

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, Jetscode1 said:

Fair point but the criticisms of Ghoston the player was earned.  The dude got paid and then just flat out sucked.  As far as the front office, I get it, they made a logical, but poor choice but there should have been a serious lesson learned in the debrief.  

Oh for sure.  F**k Gholston.  

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, OCCH23 said:

In all honesty I can't think of a "bust" bigger than Gholston -- he checked EVERY box.  Can you name a bigger one?

In NFL history?  Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich are the top 2 busts of all-time, I'd say.  

In Jet history?  Probably the biggest bust, but not the worst PICK, if that matters.  Dewayne Robertson, Christian Hackenberg, Roger Vick, Kyle Brady, Alex Van Dyke, Johnny Mitchell and Lam Jones were all worse picks.

[rangerous]

43 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That would be the Boar Hunter.

i stand corrected.  i remember the story where this guy would hide in a tree with a knife and then drop down and get the unsuspecting arnold ziffel.

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, rangerous said:

i stand corrected.  i remember the story where this guy would hide in a tree with a knife and then drop down and get the unsuspecting arnold ziffel.

Hunting athleticism:  Elite.

Football athleticism:  Non-existent.

[Lith]

42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In NFL history?  Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich are the top 2 busts of all-time, I'd say.  

In Jet history?  Probably the biggest bust, but not the worst PICK, if that matters.  Dewayne Robertson, Christian Hackenberg, Roger Vick, Kyle Brady, Alex Van Dyke, Johnny Mitchell and Lam Jones were all worse picks.

Sad truth is that there are quite a few other names that can be in the Jets discussion: Dee Milliner, Russel Carter, Blair Thomas, Carl Barzilauskas (yes, I am old, I remmber picking him 6 overall) are other top 10 picks that are in the discussion.

As to the NFL, I think Mandarich gets a raw deal becuase he never lived up to the hype, but he still started about 5 seasons in the NFL, which is more than other top 3 picks like Jason Smith, Akili Smith, Charles Rogers, Bruce Pickens, etc.  Other guys who busted but are largely forgotten becuase they did not get the hype that Mandarch got coming out of college.  I would probably add Brian Bosworth to the all time bust discussion ahead of Mandarich.  Similarly hyped out of school, but Mandarch played more than twice the number of games and seasons as Bosworth.

[y2k8]

I believe hindsight plays a role. To me, Vernon Gholston is less of a bust than say Kyle Brady because of the players that could/should have been selected.

Kyle Brady went on to have an ok NFL career with the Jets and Jags. His career was much more productive to Vernon Gholston's career. But the Jets should have picked Warren Sapp, a guy who went to the HoF.  Drafting Brady was a colossal mistake.

By comparison, Vernon Gholston's draft class was largely meh and realistically anyone the Jets picked at #6 would have been considered a major disappointment. 

[JetsFanatic]

On 5/26/2020 at 10:04 AM, GreenFish said:

Everyone has their own view of what makes a bust.

For me, it depends on the round. Probably something like this:

1st round, anything less than an average long term starter is a bust.

2nd round, anything less than a starter

3rd round, anything less than a role player

4-7th round, bust if the player doesn’t make the team year 1.

To me, Leo is not a bust. He’s a disappointment. Maybe semantics, but there’s a difference in my view.

Correct. If Tony Mandarich were a 4th round pick, he wouldnt be a bust, he did play 7 years in the NFL. However, considering where he was draftred, he was a major disappointment.

[y2k8]

On 5/26/2020 at 9:16 AM, predator_05 said:

 

Bryan thomas is unquestionably a bust. He under-performed in relation to draft position, he fell short of all 1st round benchmarks, he failed to realize his potential. He was an average NFL professional, and in hindsight - he was incorrectly given a first round grade. He was a 'failed evaluation'.

 

21 hours ago, shevys said:

Disappointment? Sure. Unquestionably a bust? Only in your mind.

I lean towards Bryan Thomas being a bust.  The Jets also needed a safety (they picked John McGraw in the 2nd round), but two spots after taking Thomas, the Ravens drafted Ed Reed.  Ed Reed is in the Hall of Fame. You know that had to been a debate, and Bryan Thomas supporters won out.  Huge mistake. This is also not as much hindsight as many Jets fans wanted Reed to be the pick at the time.

[rangerous]

35 minutes ago, Lith said:

Sad truth is that there are quite a few other names that can be in the Jets discussion: Dee Milliner, Russel Carter, Blair Thomas, Carl Barzilauskas (yes, I am old, I remmber picking him 6 overall) are other top 10 picks that are in the discussion.

As to the NFL, I think Mandarich gets a raw deal becuase he never lived up to the hype, but he still started about 5 seasons in the NFL, which is more than other top 3 picks like Jason Smith, Akili Smith, Charles Rogers, Bruce Pickens, etc.  Other guys who busted but are largely forgotten becuase they did not get the hype that Mandarch got coming out of college.  I would probably add Brian Bosworth to the all time bust discussion ahead of Mandarich.  Similarly hyped out of school, but Mandarch played more than twice the number of games and seasons as Bosworth.

i think i'd add ron faurot to the list of jet notables.  true enough mandarich never lived up to the hype after stopped juicing.  a lot of guys his era had the same problem.  another guy who was similar is matusak.  he never lived up to his hype but he had a decent career with the raiders.

as for bosworth, as i recall that guy had two bum shoulders when he was drafted and they were hidden.  he had his one memorable moment when bo jackson drove him 5 yards deep into the end zone on a td run.  not much after that.

[roscoeword]

it's a good question. Everyone considers DRob an unbelievable bust. But didn't he play for us a couple of good years. That's a big difference between him and Gholston

[Jetsfan80]

49 minutes ago, roscoeword said:

it's a good question. Everyone considers DRob an unbelievable bust. But didn't he play for us a couple of good years. That's a big difference between him and Gholston

Context matters.  The fact that we traded UP to get Robertson is what truly made it such an awful decision and pick, arguably the worse in franchise history.

[Alka]

Bust is definitely an overused word.  Busts are universal. If there is an argument about whether a player is a bust or not, then that player is probably not a bust.  Vernon Gholston was a bust, because everyone on g-d's green earth agrees that he is a bust.

Was Mark Sanchez a bust?  No, he was not.  Yes, we expected much more out of him, but he QB'd the Jets to 2 straight AFC Championship games.  If people disagree about a player, then that player is not a bust, but possibly a underperforming player.

Players like Blair Thomas is a bust, because the feeling about him is universal.

[Alka]

1 hour ago, roscoeword said:

it's a good question. Everyone considers DRob an unbelievable bust. But didn't he play for us a couple of good years. That's a big difference between him and Gholston

DRob was not a bust.  He played extremely well for a couple of seasons, but unfortunately had a very short career due to injuries.  He was considered a very good player for awhile.  Therefore, not a bust.  Vernon Gholston, a bust.  Blair Thomas, a bust.  Johnny Lame Jones, a bust.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Alka said:

DRob was not a bust.  He played extremely well for a couple of seasons, but unfortunately had a very short career due to injuries.  

"Extremely well"?  No.  He was "useful" for a couple of seasons.  When you're a # 4 overall pick, that's not good enough. 

Bust.  

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, y2k8 said:

I believe hindsight plays a role. To me, Vernon Gholston is less of a bust than say Kyle Brady because of the players that could/should have been selected.

Kyle Brady went on to have an ok NFL career with the Jets and Jags. His career was much more productive to Vernon Gholston's career. But the Jets should have picked Warren Sapp, a guy who went to the HoF.  Drafting Brady was a colossal mistake.

By comparison, Vernon Gholston's draft class was largely meh and realistically anyone the Jets picked at #6 would have been considered a major disappointment. 

I sympathize with the feeling, but that's a bit too far. By your measurement, Jamal Adams is one of the 2 biggest busts the Jets ever drafted, if not the biggest.

Being a dumb/regrettable pick in hindsight doesn't make the player a bust. Kyle Brady wasn't a bust, but given the other options he was a dumb/regrettable pick to make there. Adams was one of the worst Jets draft picks ever, considering the QB-needy Jets passed on two star QBs (one of whom is on pace to be the best QB in history) but that doesn't make Adams a bust.

I hear what you’re saying, that there was no Mahomes (let alone Mahomes and Watson) available when we took Gholston. But Gholston was not a bigger bust than Adams, even if the wrong hindsight move of drafting Gholston hurt less than the wrong hindsight move of drafting Adams. 

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I sympathize with the feeling, but that's a bit too far. By your measurement, Jamal Adams is one of the 2 biggest busts the Jets ever drafted, if not the biggest.

Being a dumb/regrettable pick in hindsight doesn't make the player a bust. Kyle Brady wasn't a bust, but given the other options he was a dumb/regrettable pick to make there. Adams was one of the worst Jets draft picks ever, considering the QB-needy Jets passed on two star QBs (one of whom is on pace to be the best QB in history) but that doesn't make Adams a bust.

I hear what you’re saying, that there was no Mahomes (let alone Mahomes and Watson) available when we took Gholston. But Gholston was not a bigger bust than Adams, even if the wrong hindsight move of drafting Gholston hurt less than the wrong hindsight move of drafting Adams. 

 

tl;dr version:  There's a difference between a bust and a bad pick.  

And some guys are both a bust AND a bad pick.  The posterboy for that category would be Christian Hackenberg.

[Sperm Edwards]

31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

tl;dr version:  There's a difference between a bust and a bad pick.  

And some guys are both a bust AND a bad pick.  The posterboy for that category would be Christian Hackenberg.

I like the way I said it better

[OCCH23]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In NFL history?  Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich are the top 2 busts of all-time, I'd say.  

In Jet history?  Probably the biggest bust, but not the worst PICK, if that matters.  Dewayne Robertson, Christian Hackenberg, Roger Vick, Kyle Brady, Alex Van Dyke, Johnny Mitchell and Lam Jones were all worse picks.

I appreciate the time you put into the response, but respectfully agree to disagree.

Gholston did NOTHING and cost us more draft capital than pretty much anyone up there.  I suppose you could argue Robertson (since we actually traded up to get him) but he at least lasted 5 years and was playing with an arthritic condition.  Hack was by far the "worst" but cost us a late second as opposed to an early first.

Like you said, it depends on the definition of "bust" -- I see Gholston's picture next to the word in the dictionary.  Some of the posts above me talk about who could have been picked instead, and to me that has NOTHING to do with the "bust" label.

I just pray I live long enough to have a debate about the BEST Jet draft pick one day, instead of always being stuck with the WORST . . .