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Schein: Bold NFL Predictions - "Sam Darnold will become a star"

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I think he is right.

As we were preparing to reopen our offices, our top 10 Actuaries (all former NYers born and raised so no bias here >wink) found we would be highly confident (better than 90%) that Darnold throws for over 4,000 yards and has a better than 2:1 TD:interception ratio if he starts 14 or more games.

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49 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Job lanes for actuarial sciences majors:

- Pension/retirement consulting

- insurance

- Sam Darnold 2020 passing statistics

Well, most of us are engineering or physics majors.  You forgot - risk assessment and governmental advisory in your list

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9 minutes ago, Lith said:

I guess it all depends on which actuarial methods that they use.  Traditional development methods might assume that the solid 8-game stretch to close the season is now representative of who he will be going forward and will extrapolate that performance to make asusmptions about his future development.

However, a more conservative Bornhuetter-Ferguson approach would put less significance on those 8 games and assume he will revert to the QB he was before that stretch, with only marginal improvement.

Personally, I generally subscribe to development methods in this case rather than B-F, so I am expecting a big year from Sam.

Yes, we used a number of methods and I chose the most conservative.  Thus, the better than 90 confidence.  We even factored in more rushing attempts and no scheme changes to take advantage of his mobility.

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