Schein: Bold NFL Predictions - "Sam Darnold will become a star"

[Ben Had]

10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

On JN?  Sure.  Across the league?  No.  There's at least 15 other QB's I imagine people think will have better seasons than Darnold, based on consensus.  

https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/28/pff-names-dolphins-ryan-fitzpatrick-afc-easts-2019-mvp/

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, GKnight83 said:

I think he is right.

As we were preparing to reopen our offices, our top 10 Actuaries (all former NYers born and raised so no bias here >wink) found we would be highly confident (better than 90%) that Darnold throws for over 4,000 yards and has a better than 2:1 TD:interception ratio if he starts 14 or more games.

Job lanes for actuarial sciences majors:

- Pension/retirement consulting

- insurance

- Sam Darnold 2020 passing statistics

[greenwichjetfan]

31 minutes ago, JiF said:

When I look at the future QB stars of the NFL; Mahomes, Watson, Murrary, Jackson - the only thing that holds me back to say that Darnold is right there in a few years, is the fact he plays for the Jets.

This is essentially where I’ve been for the better part of his career to date. 

[freestater]

Well! Now that Adam Schein believes in Sam Darnold, I shall do so too! 

[SAR I]

46 minutes ago, JiF said:

When I look at the future QB stars of the NFL; Mahomes, Watson, Murrary, Jackson - the only thing that holds me back to say that Darnold is right there in a few years, is the fact he plays for the Jets.

SAR I

[JustInFudge]

16 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

This is essentially where I’ve been for the better part of his career to date. 

Same, I just hope we did enough in the passing game to truly help him.  As of now, the only person that can consistently get open on this team is Crowder.  Really wish they would have a veteran in FA or via trade but I'm not against bringing back DT.  He didnt look shot, he knows the system in and out and could really help bridge the cap (if there is one) for Mims. 

 

[slats]

8 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Excited to see Darnold behind a decent OL. I think Becton dominates and pushes people around from the very start. Wish we could of gave Darnold one more reliable target. Hoping the TE’s stay healthy and get plenty involved. Ryan Griffin and Chris Herndon can make up for the lack of bodies at WR.

I'm cautiously optimistic on the improvements Joe D has tried to make here. 

The OL is going to overturn a minimum of three starters, potentially all five. I like the Becton pick and think his ceiling is HoF, but he's a giant kid who just turned 21 like a week before the draft, who wasn't asked to do a lot of pass protection in school. I really like the idea of him learning on the job from the RT spot as a rookie, where he can use his size and strength to just maul people and not worry about Sam's blind side. My bigger concern is how quickly the OL will be able to gel, especially in the abbreviated offseason. 

As for his weapons, I'm with you there. I know Robby Anderson was a polarizing player, but I feel the move from him to Perriman was a step down. I loved Herndon's rookie year and thought he would be one of the Jets leading receivers last year. The Jets need him to get back on track in a hurry. Then you're kinda hoping that a guy like Vyncint Smith somehow breaks out. 

I will say this, though... I was watching a couple scouting videos on Mims last night, and I got excited about him all over again. He's not a perfectly clean prospect, but he's just got a ton of natural ability. I think he can do damage with his size/speed/strength alone as a rookie and build from there. I think he gives Darnold something he hasn't had yet in his NFL career; someone you can throw the ball in the general direction of, and he'll track it or high point it with some of the best of them. Having a receiver like that will cut down on the ints, IMHO. If he can't make the play, he'll make sure the DB can't, either. 

[GKnight83]

49 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Job lanes for actuarial sciences majors:

- Pension/retirement consulting

- insurance

- Sam Darnold 2020 passing statistics

Well, most of us are engineering or physics majors.  You forgot - risk assessment and governmental advisory in your list

[UntouchableCrew]

11 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

On JN?  Sure.  Across the league?  No.  There's at least 15 other QB's I imagine people think will have better seasons than Darnold, based on consensus.  

I think the casual fan has already labeled Darnold a bust after the "Seeing Ghosts" game. There are lots of experts who still really like him but the idea that most people are expecting him to blow up this year is not accurate.

[Sonny Werblin]

So the prediction that the third pick in the NFL draft, who was rated as the #1 QB in the draft by many experts, will be a star in his third year in the league, is a "bold" prediction?    

[slimjasi]

The main thing I expect from Darnold is for him to be our starting QB for the next 8-10 years. I'm not going to put the "star" label on him. I think he has the potential to get there, but all I am confident in right now is that, barring injury, he will be a good QB for us for a long time.

The most important thing is that I think he will certainly be good enough to win with, provided that we build a good team around him. 

[BettyBoop]

13 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

Syracuse ‘79  here

Do you remember the Cohen-Headd backcourt?  Was it Hal Cohen and Marty Headd?

[TuscanyTile2]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

Not that this goobers opinion means anything but he's not the only analyst out there that believes this...you've heard Dan Orlosky and many others.  All it takes is watching a little Darnold to see what they're talking about, his talent is ridiculous and he's carried the dregs of the NFL while doing it.  If he can start mastering the on schedule stuff (OL and weapns play a big part in that), his ceiling is ridiculously high.  Now its time to just go do it and prove the support right and the haters wrong. 

When I look at the future QB stars of the NFL; Mahomes, Watson, Murrary, Jackson - the only thing that holds me back to say that Darnold is right there in a few years, is the fact he plays for the Jets.

I've got a good feeling about Joe D (and I think Sam is going to turn into a star) but I guess let's see what happens.  

[Lith]

4 hours ago, GKnight83 said:

I think he is right.

As we were preparing to reopen our offices, our top 10 Actuaries (all former NYers born and raised so no bias here >wink) found we would be highly confident (better than 90%) that Darnold throws for over 4,000 yards and has a better than 2:1 TD:interception ratio if he starts 14 or more games.

I guess it all depends on which actuarial methods that they use.  Traditional development methods might assume that the solid 8-game stretch to close the season is now representative of who he will be going forward and will extrapolate that performance to make asusmptions about his future development.

However, a more conservative Bornhuetter-Ferguson approach would put less significance on those 8 games and assume he will revert to the QB he was before that stretch, with only marginal improvement.

Personally, I generally subscribe to development methods in this case rather than B-F, so I am expecting a big year from Sam.

[GKnight83]

9 minutes ago, Lith said:

I guess it all depends on which actuarial methods that they use.  Traditional development methods might assume that the solid 8-game stretch to close the season is now representative of who he will be going forward and will extrapolate that performance to make asusmptions about his future development.

However, a more conservative Bornhuetter-Ferguson approach would put less significance on those 8 games and assume he will revert to the QB he was before that stretch, with only marginal improvement.

Personally, I generally subscribe to development methods in this case rather than B-F, so I am expecting a big year from Sam.

Yes, we used a number of methods and I chose the most conservative.  Thus, the better than 90 confidence.  We even factored in more rushing attempts and no scheme changes to take advantage of his mobility.

[Warfish]

15 hours ago, slimjasi said:

f*ck

now I’m worried 

Lol.

There is definitely alot of "Darnold Breakout Imminent" vibe out there rigth now.

[Philc1]

Adam Schein is right about something?

 

 

sign of the apocalypse 

[Philc1]

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

Lol.

There is definitely alot of "Darnold Breakout Imminent" vibe out there rigth now.

Maybe your boy Fitz can break out a new diet

[Jet hustle]

I miss Adam Schein on the post game show on SNY.  We share the same disdain for Vladimir ducasse

[Jet Nut]

On 5/28/2020 at 8:39 PM, 14 in Green said:

This is what we've all been waiting/hoping to see happen. It would be nice to see the kid go out there and finally shut people like me up once and for all... 

I'll be very happy to eat some crow.

Isnt this like Baker saying it’s time for him to shut up? ?

[Losmeister]

On 5/28/2020 at 5:40 PM, Vader said:

Wait did schein just cherry pick the last 9 games stats and extrapolate success? 

Did he know this would be posted on Jets message boards?

the home of extraploating good series of games and pretending the horrific 3-4 games steretches where the season is actually lost is ignored...

[slats]

15 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

the home of extraploating good series of games and pretending the horrific 3-4 games steretches where the season is actually lost is ignored...

He had one three game stretch in his rookie season that might be called borderline horrific, maybe. That's it. Let's not pretend that this total fabrication of yours is actually a thing. 

He came back from mono last year and played really well on a really bad football team, and I'm definitely tired of your posts about him at this point. 

[Losmeister]

16 minutes ago, slats said:

He had one three game stretch in his rookie season that might be called borderline horrific, maybe. That's it. Let's not pretend that this total fabrication of yours is actually a thing. 

He came back from mono last year and played really well on a really bad football team, and I'm definitely tired of your posts about him at this point. 

it IS A THING

benched in year one...after losses to Minny, Chi and Miami...  7 int 2 td    17, 10 and 6 pts

Played real well vs Dalls and then shat himself

Pats Jax and Fins last year to put us at 1-7       8 int 3 td    0, 15 and 18 pts

maybe you drink more than me and your brain is wet, although i very much doubt you drink more than me

and thats NOT bragging.... 

[Losmeister]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

He had one three game stretch in his rookie season that might be called borderline horrific, maybe. That's it. Let's not pretend that this total fabrication of yours is actually a thing. 

He came back from mono last year and played really well on a really bad football team, and I'm definitely tired of your posts about him at this point. 

put me on ignore, dude

am tired of people purposefully ignoring when the kid plays like an absolute dog

[Dcat]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

put me on ignore, dude

am tired of people purposefully ignoring when the kid plays like an absolute dog

I don't think you are giving him enough time to develop and there have been MAJOR obstacles from the Jets and from himself (health).  He's 22 years old.  A little more patience, Carlos?

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

it IS A THING

benched in year one...after losses to Minny, Chi and Miami...  7 int 2 td    17, 10 and 6 pts

Played real well vs Dalls and then shat himself

Pats Jax and Fins last year to put us at 1-7       8 int 3 td    0, 15 and 18 pts

maybe you drink more than me and your brain is wet, although i very much doubt you drink more than me

and thats NOT bragging.... 

Year one is the one stretch you can point to, maybe. And he wasn't terrible against a very good Chicago defense. That's the one I was referring to. 

After that, YOU can't name me one other three game stretch, or a single four game stretch. 

And, as always, you're putting the whole offensive load on Darnold, when his supporting cast has sucked for his entire career. Crappy OL, crappy WRs. Le'Veon Bell is making $13.5M/year to play RB and averaged 3.2 ypc behind that garbage OL, but Sam is supposed to be a top performer? 

Nothing but out of context nonsense. It's exhausting. 

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

put me on ignore, dude

am tired of people purposefully ignoring when the kid plays like an absolute dog

I'm a mod here, I can't have anyone on ignore even if I wanted to. 

[Losmeister]

On 5/29/2020 at 6:07 AM, slats said:

watching a couple scouting videos on Mims last night, and I got excited about him all over again. He's not a perfectly clean prospect, but he's just got a ton of natural ability. I think he can do damage with his size/speed/strength alone as a rookie and build from there.

me too

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

I'm a mod here, I can't have anyone on ignore even if I wanted to. 

my bad!

[Losmeister]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

Year one is the one stretch you can point to, maybe. And he wasn't terrible against a very good Chicago defense. That's the one I was referring to. 

After that, YOU can't name me one other three game stretch, or a single four game stretch. 

And, as always, you're putting the whole offensive load on Darnold, when his supporting cast has sucked for his entire career. Crappy OL, crappy WRs. Le'Veon Bell is making $13.5M/year to play RB and averaged 3.2 ypc behind that garbage OL, but Sam is supposed to be a top performer? 

Nothing but out of context nonsense. It's exhausting. 

dude,   LAST YEAR PATS/JAX/FINS...     are you THAT high?

 

[Losmeister]

McClown 2017 played better than Sam's first 2 years....ffs....

and btw, you play that take his worst and best games out and he is still like the 17th ranked QB...ie- AVERAGE

[slats]

1 minute ago, Losmeister said:

dude,   LAST YEAR PATS/JAX/FINS...     are you THAT high?

 

He completed over 69% of his passes with 3 TDs and 3 ints against Jax and fish. 

You're telling us about all these horrific three and four game stretches. That's far from horrific. And you still can't come up with a four game stretch, even with all this stretching you're trying to do. 

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

McClown 2017 played better than Sam's first 2 years....ffs....

and btw, you play that take his worst and best games out and he is still like the 17th ranked QB...ie- AVERAGE

All you do is quote numbers. Like the other out of town Sam Darnold detractors, I'm convinced you don't actually watch a lot of Jet games. It's seeing the kid play amid the adversity that is his own team that has me still very much believing in him. 

[GreenReaper]

He just gave the Jets a Scheiner?

 

 

[Losmeister]

42 minutes ago, slats said:

All you do is quote numbers. Like the other out of town Sam Darnold detractors, I'm convinced you don't actually watch a lot of Jet games. It's seeing the kid play amid the adversity that is his own team that has me still very much believing in him. 

ur the one who came up with this manipulated data to try to bolster your support for Sam.

i watched entirely too much Jets these last 2 years cos JetNation had me believeing that we had a special QB who was gonna change the team...

what I have seen is a kid in over his head alotta the time.  who is most likely Andy Dalton 2.0

who has four 300 yd games in 2 yrs and under 200 11 times....