Perriman vs. Anderson, per Football Outsiders DVOA rankings

[hamat711]

I'm sorry but this is dumb.

If the advanced stats are telling you Perriman is better than Julio Jones, Deandre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Adam Theilen, the advanced stats are garbage.

I know some of you are happy with your new toy, but Perriman is a downgrade from Robbie.

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, hamat711 said:

I'm sorry but this is dumb.

If the advanced stats are telling you Perriman is better than Julio Jones, Deandre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Adam Theilen, the advanced stats are garbage.

I know some of you are happy with your new toy, but Perriman is a downgrade from Robbie.

Or maybe you just don't understand what the advanced stats are saying.  These numbers are showing a player's average value per play.  Perriman had much fewer snaps than a lot of the other guys on the list, so his sample size pushed him up the charts a good bit.

That does not mean they lack value and can be thrown out.  By a lot of different metrics, Anderson really isn't all that good, and that's been the case several seasons in a row.  DVOA (rankings of # 81, # 47, # 65, # 53 over his 4 years) , Catch Rate (54 % last season and 54 % over his career to date), YAC (3.8 YAC/reception last season, 3.7 in 2018), etc, etc.  He's been very clearly overrated by Jets fans.  He only does a couple things well and that's not good enough for a guy people wanted to pay like a low end WR1.

Perriman is very unlikely to produce top 20 WR numbers next season.  But he demonstrated bigtime upside that Anderson lacks.  And anyone who actually watched a little bit of Perriman playing at the tail end of last season saw a receiver who makes a lot of different types of catches that Anderson simply doesn't, can run after the catch, and is nearly as good a deep threat as Robby was.  

[Losmeister]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or maybe you just don't understand what the advanced stats are saying.  These numbers are showing a player's average value per play.  Perriman had much fewer snaps than a lot of the other guys on the list, so his sample size pushed him up the charts a good bit.

That does not mean they lack value and can be thrown out.  By a lot of different metrics, Anderson really isn't all that good, and that's been the case several seasons in a row.  DVOA (rankings of # 81, # 47, # 65, # 53 over his 4 years) , Catch Rate (54 % last season and 54 % over his career to date), YAC (3.8 YAC/reception last season, 3.7 in 2018), etc, etc.  He's been very clearly overrated by Jets fans.  He only does a couple things well and that's not good enough for a guy people wanted to pay like a low end WR1.

Perriman is very unlikely to produce top 20 WR numbers next season.  But he demonstrated bigtime upside that Anderson lacks.  And anyone who actually watched a little bit of Perriman playing at the tail end of last season saw a receiver who makes a lot of different types of catches that Anderson simply doesn't, can run after the catch, and is nearly as good a deep threat as Robby was.  

he produced 5 games in 4 yrs.

has attributes that RA does not.

cheaper, slight downgrade with upside that is more wishful thinking (slightly) than not.

[Alka]

19 hours ago, win4ever said:

The unfortunate truth is that Anderson is a No. 3 receiver. However, because of volume, people thought he’d be a fine No. 2, and I think he thought he’d be a borderline No. 1.

Anderson runs a great deep go route, extra gear, tracks the ball well. If we’re judging just based on that, he’s one of the best in the league. However, that’s really all that he does well. For someone that fast, he’s not a big YAC guy, nor does he run other routes well. He gets open because teams respect his deep speed, but he’s not going to be a dependable guy. I think that’s why Carolina was a good fit for him because Moore/Samuel can allow him to be who he is.

Perriman on film and on paper is a MUCH better player, if we just look at Tampa. He attacks the back shoulder pass extremely well, can run deep with the extra gear, and uses his size to box out defenders. The issue with him is that his three previous years were basically useless. If you could go with just potential, he’s probably one of the top 30 guys in the league, but the downside is a crater.

Doctson is weird. He was my No. 1 WR coming out of that draft, and I was sure he’d be good. He ran good routes, won against both man and zone, attacked the ball in the air, good YAC guy, and wasn’t really a troublemaker. Probably one of my biggest misses, I have no idea why he sucked. His NFL tape is extremely mediocre.

I think Perriman (as long as he’s healthy) is going to break out. I’d be a bit surprised if Doctson made the team.


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I wrote in another thread that I felt that Doctson will be cut.   It's time the Jets start getting rid of potential players who didn't pan out, and stick with potential players who have proven that they deserve to stick around.  As far as Anderson goes, I agree with you 100%.

[hamat711]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or maybe you just don't understand what the advanced stats are saying.  These numbers are showing a player's average value per play.  Perriman had much fewer snaps than a lot of the other guys on the list, so his sample size pushed him up the charts a good bit.

That does not mean they lack value and can be thrown out.  By a lot of different metrics, Anderson really isn't all that good, and that's been the case several seasons in a row.  DVOA (rankings of # 81, # 47, # 65, # 53 over his 4 years) , Catch Rate (54 % last season and 54 % over his career to date), YAC (3.8 YAC/reception last season, 3.7 in 2018), etc, etc.  He's been very clearly overrated by Jets fans.  He only does a couple things well and that's not good enough for a guy people wanted to pay like a low end WR1.

Perriman is very unlikely to produce top 20 WR numbers next season.  But he demonstrated bigtime upside that Anderson lacks.  And anyone who actually watched a little bit of Perriman playing at the tail end of last season saw a receiver who makes a lot of different types of catches that Anderson simply doesn't, can run after the catch, and is nearly as good a deep threat as Robby was.  

Forget top 20 which is over 1,100 yards last year. If he puts up top 50 numbers (700 yards) it would be a career high.

There is a reason why Robbie was productive from Day 1 while Perriman has been a bust.

You can't play football with numbers. This isn't baseball

[Jetsfan80]

Forget top 20 which is over 1,100 yards last year. If he puts up top 50 numbers (700 yards) it would be a career high.

There is a reason why Robbie was productive from Day 1 while Perriman has been a bust.

You can't play football with numbers. This isn't baseball

 

Last I checked yardage is a number. Guess we should just go on feelings i guess. Numbers are totally gay.

 

Not like the best orgs in the NFL are the ones that embraced analytics first or anything.

[JetBlue]

23 hours ago, win4ever said:

The unfortunate truth is that Anderson is a No. 3 receiver. However, because of volume, people thought he’d be a fine No. 2, and I think he thought he’d be a borderline No. 1.

Anderson runs a great deep go route, extra gear, tracks the ball well. If we’re judging just based on that, he’s one of the best in the league. However, that’s really all that he does well. For someone that fast, he’s not a big YAC guy, nor does he run other routes well. He gets open because teams respect his deep speed, but he’s not going to be a dependable guy. I think that’s why Carolina was a good fit for him because Moore/Samuel can allow him to be who he is.

Perriman on film and on paper is a MUCH better player, if we just look at Tampa. He attacks the back shoulder pass extremely well, can run deep with the extra gear, and uses his size to box out defenders. The issue with him is that his three previous years were basically useless. If you could go with just potential, he’s probably one of the top 30 guys in the league, but the downside is a crater.

Doctson is weird. He was my No. 1 WR coming out of that draft, and I was sure he’d be good. He ran good routes, won against both man and zone, attacked the ball in the air, good YAC guy, and wasn’t really a troublemaker. Probably one of my biggest misses, I have no idea why he sucked. His NFL tape is extremely mediocre.

I think Perriman (as long as he’s healthy) is going to break out. I’d be a bit surprised if Doctson made the team.


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Perriman in addition to staying healthy, had to improve as a route runner when he first come into the league,  He has gotten better but still has room for improvement.  But his hands, speed, ability to high point the ball, leaping ability, hands, strength...  he is just a superior athlete than Anderson in almost every way.   He continues to be better running routes and the sky really is the limit for him.   6'2 215 and running 4.3 is nothing to sneeze at.  

[win4ever]

53 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Perriman in addition to staying healthy, had to improve as a route runner when he first come into the league,  He has gotten better but still has room for improvement.  But his hands, speed, ability to high point the ball, leaping ability, hands, strength...  he is just a superior athlete than Anderson in almost every way.   He continues to be better running routes and the sky really is the limit for him.   6'2 215 and running 4.3 is nothing to sneeze at.  

Yeah, Perriman needed to work on a few things, because I think he had issues with drops too in college.  Mostly concentration drops, after he'd make spectacular catches,  

I think route running, especially his breaks (I think Jets X factor highlighted it too) need work, but other than that, he's exceptionally talented.  His hands are better than Anderson for sure.  I thought Anderson was better at the second gear when tracking a ball, but Perriman has legitimate speed to match anything deep.  It's really the intermediate area where Perriman wins in terms of talent, because he can take advantage of his size and hands.   

I'm not saying Anderson was a slouch, but Perriman fits this offense better, while Anderson fits what the Panthers need.  They wanted someone that could take the top off, and Anderson can do that as well as anyone.  I think Perriman is the more complete receiver, which is what we needed.  

[New York Mick]

FFS talk about grasping at straws to try to make yourself feel better about the team. Perriman is not as good as Anderson, he’s cheaper period. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, New York Mick said:

FFS talk about grasping at straws to try to make yourself feel better about the team. Perriman is not as good as Anderson, he’s cheaper period. 

It was moreso explaining why Anderson was let go and really wasn't very good than anything about Perriman.  The tears spent over Anderson being allowed to walk were excessive.

But yeah, f**k me for starting a non-Adams/Darnold/Gase sucks thread, right?

[Jets723]

2 hours ago, New York Mick said:

FFS talk about grasping at straws to try to make yourself feel better about the team. Perriman is not as good as Anderson, he’s cheaper period. 

Look I was a Anderson fan and I wanted him here.  If I had a choice I would pick Anderson BUT let’s not act like he is vastly superior.  He was a terrific deep threat but he would disappear for games at a time too and couldn’t do anything other than running deep routes really.  I like Perriman even though he has bounced around but I’m interested to see how he connects with Sam 

[slats]

18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or maybe you just don't understand what the advanced stats are saying.  These numbers are showing a player's average value per play.  Perriman had much fewer snaps than a lot of the other guys on the list, so his sample size pushed him up the charts a good bit.

That does not mean they lack value and can be thrown out.  By a lot of different metrics, Anderson really isn't all that good, and that's been the case several seasons in a row.  DVOA (rankings of # 81, # 47, # 65, # 53 over his 4 years) , Catch Rate (54 % last season and 54 % over his career to date), YAC (3.8 YAC/reception last season, 3.7 in 2018), etc, etc.  He's been very clearly overrated by Jets fans.  He only does a couple things well and that's not good enough for a guy people wanted to pay like a low end WR1.

Perriman is very unlikely to produce top 20 WR numbers next season.  But he demonstrated bigtime upside that Anderson lacks.  And anyone who actually watched a little bit of Perriman playing at the tail end of last season saw a receiver who makes a lot of different types of catches that Anderson simply doesn't, can run after the catch, and is nearly as good a deep threat as Robby was.  

I think it's a tough position to take to dog Anderson for his 54% catch rate, then call Perriman, with his 48.7% catch rate, a guy with clear upside that Anderson lacks. 

Perriman's been a disappointment since he was drafted in the first round by the Ravens. He's on his fourth team in five years for a reason. I think the best we can hope is that he was a late bloomer who had his blooming interrupted by injury. I'm very, very far from sold that Perriman is an upgrade over Robby, and the contracts the two players got suggest that the league has a similar opinion. I get that Robby's numbers are a result of him being pressed into action for lack of better receivers, but his skinny ass has proven to be durable, and he's been productive. 

I'd love for him to be more. I think it's possible. I also think it's possible that he's merely a place-holder this year. 

[Jetsfan80]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

I think it's a tough position to take to dog Anderson for his 54% catch rate, then call Perriman, with his 48.7% catch rate, a guy with clear upside that Anderson lacks. 

Fair, but at least he's trending up a bit with that number.  With Baltimore it was indeed garbage (42.6 %).  But in 2018 his catch rate was 64 %.  And last year, with the air yards per target for Perriman ranking # 2 in the NFL, and with Mr. 30 INT Jameis Winston throwing it to him, it was 52 %.  I think he is well equipped to do better than Robby here.

[slats]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Fair, but at least he's trending up a bit with that number.  With Baltimore it was indeed garbage (42.6 %).  But in 2018 his catch rate was 64 %.  And last year, with the air yards per target for Perriman ranking # 2 in the NFL, and with Mr. 30 INT Jameis Winston throwing it to him, it was 52 %.  I think he is well equipped to do better than Robby here.

Very optimistic PoV, IMHO. Small sample size in 2018. 

I'd love to see it, but I'm not counting on it. I think we could see a lot of two-TE sets to take advantage of Herndon and Griffin and also hide their continuing deficiency at WR. Mims is their best hope. After that, you gotta root for a guy like Vyncint Smith, whose first two years in the league weren't much worse than Perriman's 2nd & 3rd. 

[New York Mick]

4 hours ago, Jets723 said:

Look I was a Anderson fan and I wanted him here.  If I had a choice I would pick Anderson BUT let’s not act like he is vastly superior.  He was a terrific deep threat but he would disappear for games at a time too and couldn’t do anything other than running deep routes really.  I like Perriman even though he has bounced around but I’m interested to see how he connects with Sam 

 

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It was moreso explaining why Anderson was let go and really wasn't very good than anything about Perriman.  The tears spent over Anderson being allowed to walk were excessive.

But yeah, f**k me for starting a non-Adams/Darnold/Gase sucks thread, right?

I don’t really care either way about Anderson he’s a jag but he’s a better jag then Perriman. That transaction didn’t make the Jets any better this year. 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

I don’t really care either way about Anderson he’s a jag but he’s a better jag then Perriman. That transaction didn’t make the Jets any better this year. 

JAG receivers don't deserve $20M over 2 years.

[neckdemon]

On 6/2/2020 at 11:59 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

Side note:  Be sure to grab Allen Lazard (# 18 on this list) in your fantasy drafts this year. 

Whoever is the # 2 WR in Green Bay always produces, and Lazard should be able to lock down that job over Funchess and Valdes-Scantling.  He was impressive over the final 11 games last season (35 catches on 52 targets, 477 yds, 3 TDs).  In the 3 games he started, Lazard was targeted by Rodgers a total of 21 times.

You're welcome.

unless davante adams is hurt none of the other receivers will be worth much more than a possible bye week replacement flex player

[New York Mick]

34 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

JAG receivers don't deserve $20M over 2 years.

I completely agree but that doesn’t make Perriman a better WR then Anderson just cheaper and that’s exactly what I originally posted 

[extmenace]

If you look at the situations that perriman has been in, I’d also argue that outside of last year, he hasn’t really been in a passing offense that would even have allowed him to be successful. He’s had Flacco in his last 2 years as the starter in Baltimore and rookie QB in baker mayfield in his 3rd year. In his 4th year he started off the season as TB’s 5th passing option at best but as Tampa’s injuries mounted, the guy was finally on the field playing meaningful minutes in a legit offense. What did he do in that situation? he played like a competent number 1 WR. I’m not saying that perriman will become a star in NY but perriman started off his career in some pretty crappy situations. I like his upside.  I think he’s going to surprise a lot of his critics.

[Jets723]

1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

 

I don’t really care either way about Anderson he’s a jag but he’s a better jag then Perriman. That transaction didn’t make the Jets any better this year. 

It’s a two way street.  Anderson wanted to leave even though the Hets offered him a contract. Like I said I rather have Anderson but I’m not broken up over it and I think Perriman should get a chance considering he ended the year strong 

[win4ever]

Even PFF ranks Perriman higher.

Anderson, ‘18-‘19: 68.3, 68.6
Perriman: ‘18-‘19: 70.9, 72.8

Also, that Browns offense not so great. OBJ went from 90 in PFF to 68.7 albeit at a much higher sample.

Also, Perriman is younger than Anderson.

Although at this point just going in circles. I feel Perriman has the upside to be much better than Anderson, while some others don’t. I’ll agree to disagree.


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[New York Mick]

2 hours ago, Jets723 said:

It’s a two way street.  Anderson wanted to leave even though the Hets offered him a contract. Like I said I rather have Anderson but I’m not broken up over it and I think Perriman should get a chance considering he ended the year strong 

Me either but that still doesn’t make Perriman better then Anderson. 

[Jets723]

44 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Me either but that still doesn’t make Perriman better then Anderson. 

Did you even read my post?  I said both times I rather have Anderson.  I simply said we tried to keep him but he chose to leave which is his right.  All I said is that I personally like the signing and let’s give him a chance 

[Smashmouth]

On 6/2/2020 at 11:13 PM, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

 Yep Balls

[hamat711]

On 6/4/2020 at 3:50 PM, extmenace said:

If you look at the situations that perriman has been in, I’d also argue that outside of last year, he hasn’t really been in a passing offense that would even have allowed him to be successful. He’s had Flacco in his last 2 years as the starter in Baltimore and rookie QB in baker mayfield in his 3rd year. In his 4th year he started off the season as TB’s 5th passing option at best but as Tampa’s injuries mounted, the guy was finally on the field playing meaningful minutes in a legit offense. What did he do in that situation? he played like a competent number 1 WR. I’m not saying that perriman will become a star in NY but perriman started off his career in some pretty crappy situations. I like his upside.  I think he’s going to surprise a lot of his critics.

Stop with the excuses.

At no point in his career has Perriman been the 1st or 2nd best WR on his own team. He also can't stay healthy.

[UntouchableCrew]

On 6/3/2020 at 12:05 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

20-30?  That's a lot.

The contracts and/or ages of several of those receivers would have to chop that list down a good bit:

• Adam Thielen:  Age 30 and a $12.8M cap hit this year, going up each subsequent year. 
• Marvin Jones:  Age 30, costs $9.2M this year, and like Perriman is a FA after the season.
• John Brown:  Age 30, costs $9.7M this year and $9.75M next year.
• Emmanuel Sanders:  Age 33, costs just $4M this year but is $10M next year and difficult to cut.  
• Randall Cobb:  Age 30, a slot receiver, and costs $10.6M in 2021.
• Jarvis Landry:  Age 28, also a slot receiver, and costs $14.6M this year, $14.8M next year, and $16.6M in 2022.
• T.Y. Hilton:  Age 31, has missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons, costs $14.5M this year and is a free agent after the season
• Cole Beasley:  Age 31, a slot receiver, and costs over $7M each of the next 3 seasons.
• Brandin Cooks:  Age 27, but too many concussions, and costs $12M+ against the cap each year from 2021-23.
• Golden Tate:  Age 32, costs, $10.3M+ each of the next 2 seasons.
• Larry Fitzgerald:  Age 37, costs $11.75M this year.  FA after the season.
• Alshon Jeffery:  Age 30 and injury prone, costs $15.4M this year and $18.4M next year.

 

Am I saying I'd prefer Perriman over ALL of the guys I just listed?  No.  But at age 27 and sitting on a 1 year deal costing just $6.4M against the cap, he's preferable to a lot of them.  

I gotta say a lot of these guys are waaay older than I thought they were. Like, how is John Brown 30? I feel like he's been around for a couple of seasons.

[jetscrazey]

The bottom line is Perriman played well when put in place of Mike Evans towards the end of the season.  He put up #1 WR numbers.  I'm willing to give Perriman a shot.

Mims will have fewer catches but will probably make his fair share of big plays, especially inside the 10 yard line.

The good thing is we have Crowder as the 3rd down guy for Sam to lean in on in those "gotta have it" situations, so that takes pressure off Perriman and Mims to focus more on making big chunk plays.

Oh yeah and Herndon.  If he's actually back this group will be fine.  It's all on the o-line really.

[TNJet]

On 6/3/2020 at 12:13 AM, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

Its called muscle.

[Prodigal Syndicate]

I was told Perriman was better than Anderson.

[Losmeister]

On 6/4/2020 at 8:04 AM, slats said:

I think it's a tough position to take to dog Anderson for his 54% catch rate, then call Perriman, with his 48.7% catch rate, a guy with clear upside that Anderson lacks. 

Perriman's been a disappointment since he was drafted in the first round by the Ravens. He's on his fourth team in five years for a reason. I think the best we can hope is that he was a late bloomer who had his blooming interrupted by injury. I'm very, very far from sold that Perriman is an upgrade over Robby, and the contracts the two players got suggest that the league has a similar opinion. I get that Robby's numbers are a result of him being pressed into action for lack of better receivers, but his skinny ass has proven to be durable, and he's been productive. 

I'd love for him to be more. I think it's possible. I also think it's possible that he's merely a place-holder this year. 

Robby 1- Breshad 0

 

[Losmeister]

On 6/4/2020 at 8:36 AM, slats said:

root for a guy like Vyncint Smith, whose first two years in the league weren't much worse than Perriman's 2nd & 3rd. 

ultimately, damning.

[Irish Jet]

There's going to be some enjoyable bumps with this.

Hilarious that people would use the shambolic offensive line to justify Darnold's struggles but would completely ignore it with Robby. A WR who does all of his best work down the field on plays that need time to develop. A shame he didn't end up on and even better team than Carolina - With a legit downfield passer he could tear the league apart. A formidable weapon for any team. 

Should have been signed. No question. Even comparing him to a career bust like Perriman was an insult. 

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

There's going to be some enjoyable bumps with this.

Hilarious that people would use the shambolic offensive line to justify Darnold's struggles but would completely ignore it with Robby. A WR who does all of his best work down the field on plays that need time to develop. A shame he didn't end up on and even better team than Carolina - With a legit downfield passer he could tear the league apart. A formidable weapon for any team. 

Should have been signed. No question. Even comparing him to a career bust like Perriman was an insult. 

he's no julio jones, but...    Robbo is alright w/ me. Lumme those UDFA WRs....  Been rootin for them since Bobby Jones...

 

 

[bitonti]

There's no justification for cap space over robby

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[Dunnie]

There's no justification for cap space over robby

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Yes ... It's called being prudent. You don't pay Jags $$$$

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