Jets will be 8-8 this season

[Jetscode1]

If healthy, I predict 10-6 with a playoff victory.  

[Jet_Engine1]

10 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

Trust me, I get it.

I get into a lot of dust ups with people here because after over 50 years of watching this team, I just laugh at the absurdity of it all. The this is the guy, this is the coach, the whole pig is ripe thing.

I get the young guys here who are blindly optimistic, but the older guys who've been watching from way before they were born? How do you do it?

Don't get me wrong, before every season starts I concoct in my head a scenario where "this is the year" for the Jets. Same as I do for the Mets, Rangers, and yeah, even the Knicks. But yeah, you're 100% correct, it might be a frustrated laugh, but I do laugh.

As a Jet Fan a few years younger than you, I also think I'm a "realist". I know we're not winning the SB this year, I know the jury is still out on plenty of guys, I have doubts about the HC, and I'm still down on the Organizational structure and Ownership. I've seen all of the bad, the crazy, and the weird since around 1977.... and at best I would say I occasionally get cautiously optimistic. 

 

BUT as a fan with decades of time invested in the franchise, I dont get the contempt so many "fans" have for the team, and I don't sh*t all over every guy that doesn't instantly and immediately exceed my wildest expectations or hopes for them, jump on another teams bandwagon, or try to kill the enthusiasm of others. I just don't get it. 

 

So essentially, I suppose my philosophy as a fan has boiled down to cautious optimism and the old adage, "Trust, but verify". 

[Alka]

12 hours ago, EM31 said:

You have to assume NE takes a step back and Miami is a huge unknown.  I think there are division wins to be had.  

I have to assume that the offense will be better.  Sam + New WR options plus (hopefully) better O-Line work product.  why would it not be better?

Specials are probably the same or better and I see no reason to think the Defense will be worse.  2nd year of Williams plus (hopefully) better overall health.  Why would we not be better on D?

I think 8-8 is the floor TBH.

If Jamal learns to actually catch the ball... who knows?

<the last one was a joke.... mostly>

A couple of things... First, you are trying to determine the Jets record based upon hope and potential.  While I believe that a team can make a huge leap from one year to another, you also have to look at the schedule.  It is brutal.  Even if we sweep Miami, split with New England and split with Buffalo, the likelihood is that we will reverse course against the NFC this year due to the tough opponents we face, and instead of going 3-1 last year, we can easily go 1-3 this year.  That would put us at 5-5.  We lose to Kansas City outright, and even if we go 3-2 against the rest of the AFC, that puts us 8-8 for the year.  And this is assuming we can split with Buffalo, sweep Miami and split with New England, which will not be an easy task by any means.  

I'm sorry, but 8-8 as the floor?  I wish you were right.

[EM31]

1 minute ago, Alka said:

A couple of things... First, you are trying to determine the Jets record based upon hope and potential.  While I believe that a team can make a huge leap from one year to another, you also have to look at the schedule.  It is brutal.  Even if we sweep Miami, split with New England and split with Buffalo, the likelihood is that we will reverse course against the NFC this year due to the tough opponents we face, and instead of going 3-1 last year, we can easily go 1-3 this year.  That would put us at 5-5.  We lose to Kansas City outright, and even if we go 3-2 against the rest of the AFC, that puts us 8-8 for the year.  And this is assuming we can split with Buffalo, sweep Miami and split with New England, which will not be an easy task by any means.  

I'm sorry, but 8-8 as the floor?  I wish you were right.

Maybe so.  If this isn't the time of year to be optimistic then I don't know when is.

While I said we should be better in all three phases, I think the changes plus the hope for an average injury year when added to the fact that it is the 2nd year of Gase/Williams systems that this is a conservative position.  I think we could be much much better across the board.

But yes, I am a Jets fan and so covering my nuts while being optimistic comes naturally to me.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, rangerous said:

yep, it was one of the talking heads but they were commenting mainly on the strength of schedule.  i don't agree because i don't believe there is much carry over, year to year, of team strength with a few exceptions like the chiefs, the patsies (of late), steelers, ravens.  the rest of the teams have up and down years.

Even if our schedule strength only ends up middle of the pack, that would be a world's difference in difficulty compared to last season.

We went from the easiest or 2nd easiest schedule in the league last year to the projected 2nd hardest schedule.  

This team can be significantly better than last year and still go 7-9.  

[Jetsfan80]

19 minutes ago, slats said:

I don't necessarily think Gase is on the hot seat to start this year, but he could get there. If Sam isn't performing, Gase is the guy most likely to not survive. The team might bring in another QB to compete with Sam, too, but they won't give Gase another shot with another QB. 

Absolutely.  Its not like Gase is some first-time HC and deserves to see things out with a handpicked QB.  He's been a HC before and a long-time QB Coach and OC.  He has a long track record of QB's he's worked with at varying levels of play.  There's more than enough material on him to determine if he's the guy to help Darnold.  

If the experiment doesn't work, Gase is gone, and JD and the new HC (hopefully handpicked by Douglas, with minimal input from the Johnson's) will pick the new QB if/when it becomes necessary.  

[BUM-KNEE]

27 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Fitzpatrick and marshall and decker and the boys got 10 wins and were all drummed off the team and forever hated a year or so later.

Not sure what your post has to do with mine. I don't hate any of those players, I enjoyed every win they notched for us.

I just want to see this team get into sync and start winning more than losing. 8-8 is ok for this schedule but I want to see us climb higher in the very near future.

[Alka]

6 hours ago, CurtMart said:

If you wanna look at the end result, then yeah your 7-9 prediction was spot on. But if you wanna go into reasonings, then you’re dead wrong. Jets had crazy amount of injuries. When you lose your top 2 QBs for 3 games where the offense doesn’t score, you lose your top FA defender for an entire year and your already weak OL loses a few starters, the 7-9 record was very impressive. They went 6-2 in the second half. That’s who they were. Maybe a 10 win team. If we can avoid too many major injuries, we should be a 10 win team in 2020. 

You do realize that the Jets lost to the Bengals, who hadn't won a game up to that point, and the Jets lost to the Phins, who I believe was a 1 win team at the time with a bunch of losses, then beat the Phins in a very close game at the end of the season.  Add to it was a Buffalo win on the last game where Buffalo wasn't even trying to win, they needed to get ready for the playoffs.  Weak schedule with losses against weak teams.  This year, tougher schedule, and we have a better team.  8-8 is the reality.

If your right, and we are 10-6, then the teams we think will be hard are not so hard, and the Jets with potential and newbie players will blossom very quickly and surprise and shock the NFL.  Fant is a question, Perriman is a question, our new cornerbacks are a question, our injured players coming back from last season is a question, and our offensive line is a big question.  Will Sam make a big leap, will our wide receivers surprise us?  10-6 is a bold prediction, but I have to look at the hard reality.  I've been a Jets fan since 1968, and I've learned over the years to look at what is, hope what can be, but base my predictions on what I see today, and not what I hope for tomorrow.

[Jetsfan80]

17 minutes ago, Jetscode1 said:

If healthy, I predict 10-6 with a playoff victory.  

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

[slats]

25 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

As a Jet Fan a few years younger than you, I also think I'm a "realist". I know we're not winning the SB this year, I know the jury is still out on plenty of guys, I have doubts about the HC, and I'm still down on the Organizational structure and Ownership. I've seen all of the bad, the crazy, and the weird since around 1977.... and at best I would say I occasionally get cautiously optimistic. 

BUT as a fan with decades of time invested in the franchise, I dont get the contempt so many "fans" have for the team, and I don't sh*t all over every guy that doesn't instantly and immediately exceed my wildest expectations or hopes for them, jump on another teams bandwagon, or try to kill the enthusiasm of others. I just don't get it. 

So essentially, I suppose my philosophy as a fan has boiled down to cautious optimism and the old adage, "Trust, but verify". 

We have a few of these so-called fans who crap on everything the team does and call it, "being a realist." That they're the only people seeing things as they really are while the rest of us are wearing homer-colored glasses. I don't see the point of that.

The team has flaws. I'll never be sold on this ownership, the coach has a ways to go for me, too. I think 8-8 is probably an optimistic projection for this season. But I'm optimistic about Joe Douglas, and Sam Darnold, still. If this draft class is half of what we hope, the team could be ready to turn a corner. Will it be this year? The only chance of that happening is if Darnold explodes. The OL is re-worked, but still very much a work in progress. The WRs were turned over but, like the OL, they're really leaning on a breakout performance by a rookie if they're hoping to be improved. 

But yeah, there's some reason for optimism, even if it's just watching the team take a step forward if not all the way back to the playoffs this year. We've still got a top QB prospect and a couple exciting rookies. No reason to crap on fans whose glasses are half-full for just being fans. 

[THE BARON]

13 hours ago, pdxgreen said:

If they are more competative with a decent offense... that's all I really care about.  We have a tough scheduled...but 8-8 and a top 12 offense.  I'm fine with that.  If Sam doesn't make the jump... then Gase out on his butt by the end of December.  Playoffs would be great but Sam making the jump to franchise QB is all I really want.  Gase's ability to get this offense going is what should be worrying him right now.

Agree.  A winning season would be great, but with the schedule, 8-8 would be "acceptable" if the offense and Sam both showed substaintial improvement.  

And one other though on the statistical difficulty of the schedule.  In the NFL circa 2020, good teams get bad and bad teams get good within the span of one single off-season.  In actuality, the schedule may not be so tough.  

Any way you slice it, either Gase gets Sam and the offense going, or Gase needs a promotion out of NY

[BUM-KNEE]

The problem with the schedule is the WC trips to me.

[Jet_Engine1]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

Both LA games are winnable.  

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Both LA games are winnable.  

Winnable, yes.  Likely wins?  Hardly.  West coast trips are not kind to east coast teams.  And we were lucky not to have any last year.  I think we win just 1 of those 5 games I listed, or none of them.

Taking our injury-ridden 7-9 season and using that to translate to 8-8 being the floor next season is a very flawed perspective.  Trading in the AFC North (which had a down year other than the Ravens) and NFC East (pretty much always terrible) for the AFC West and NFC West this year will have a vast impact on our schedule strength.

[JetsFanShawn]

10 w 8 l

[slats]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

The Jets getting the 49ers at home for a 1pm game the second week of the season is probably the absolute best they could've hoped for scheduling there. That's a place they could still a win. Agree with @Jet_Engine1, too, that both LA games are winnable. In fact, I'll be pretty disappointed if they can't beat the Chargers anywhere. 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

The Jets getting the 49ers at home for a 1pm game the second week of the season is probably the absolute best they could've hoped for scheduling there. That's a place they could still a win. Agree with @Jet_Engine1, too, that both LA games are winnable. In fact, I'll be pretty disappointed if they can't beat the Chargers anywhere. 

Everyone is focusing on the QB situation when it comes to the Chargers, but seem to ignore that their roster is very good, or at least better than people think.  They were only outscored by 8 points last year despite playing in the tough AFC West, so their 5-11 record really should have been 7-9 or 8-8.  

Russell Okung missed 8 games last year (now replaced with Bryan Bulaga).  Derwin James missed 11 games last year coming off a rookie season where he was 1st Team-All Pro in 2018.  He's going to be a monster for them.  They also added Chris Harris.

[CurtMart]

1 hour ago, Alka said:

You do realize that the Jets lost to the Bengals, who hadn't won a game up to that point, and the Jets lost to the Phins, who I believe was a 1 win team at the time with a bunch of losses, then beat the Phins in a very close game at the end of the season.  Add to it was a Buffalo win on the last game where Buffalo wasn't even trying to win, they needed to get ready for the playoffs.  Weak schedule with losses against weak teams.  This year, tougher schedule, and we have a better team.  8-8 is the reality.

you do realize we would’ve swept the Bills if Mosley didn’t get hurt? And losing to the Phins n Bengals just means they lined up better against our injury riddled team. I guess you forgot about the injuries?

1 hour ago, Alka said:

If your right, and we are 10-6, then the teams we think will be hard are not so hard, and the Jets with potential and newbie players will blossom very quickly and surprise and shock the NFL.  Fant is a question, Perriman is a question, our new cornerbacks are a question, our injured players coming back from last season is a question, and our offensive line is a big question.  Will Sam make a big leap, will our wide receivers surprise us?  10-6 is a bold prediction, but I have to look at the hard reality.  I've been a Jets fan since 1968, and I've learned over the years to look at what is, hope what can be, but base my predictions on what I see today, and not what I hope for tomorrow.

Sam doesn’t need to take a big leap. OL might be a question but I’ll take that Compared against the weakest OL in the league last season. Our CBs? I’ll take a mannequin over TruJ. Perran might be a question but he’s more of an NFL player than the one trick pony Robby. Who else did we have last year at WR that we don’t this year? Anything more than 400-500 yards from Mims this year would be a bonus.
 

Tough schedule, yes, but at the same time, we get to face the Brady-less Pats twice. That’s two losses in 2019 that can be converted into wins. And Dolphins? If we don’t sweep them, it’ll be a surprise. We might split with the Bills. Should go 4-2 or 5-1 in the division. Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Rams, Cards and Browns. That’s 7 very winnable games. Shouldn’t go any worse than 5-2. Seahawks, 49ers and Chiefs. Probably go winless if injuries don’t play a part. 

4-2  +  5-2  +  0-3 = 9-7  

It requires us losing all 3 to the Hawks 49ers and the chiefs and also accounts for 3 losses against teams we should win along with a split with the Bills. 
 

All that assumes we don’t go through an injury we can’t overcome. It doesn’t assume any team improvements, such as it doesn’t account for Sam taking the next step which many reasonable experts expect he will simply because of the improvements around him AND being in the same offensive system for the first time. WRs are improved and so is the OL. Mosley should be a difference maker on the defense as we saw that last year.
 

This is an improved team. I’m clearly a glass half full kind of guy. I’ve been watching the Jets since the early 90s and haven’t endured nearly as many miserable seasons like yourself, but this is the first season after the 2011 season that I’ve felt confident. I was confident in 2010 and 2008 (Favre). If we go 8-8 being relatively healthy, I’ll be disappointed. 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

[pdxgreen]

19 minutes ago, SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN said:

I am.Ducks fan and even I don't have that much faith in Herbert. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, CurtMart said:

you do realize we would’ve swept the Bills if Mosley didn’t get hurt? 

If we had beaten the Bills in Week 1, they wouldn't have been in a position to rest their starters in Week 17.

We went 1-1 against the Bills.  In no universe can you assume we would have swept them.

Don't be a SAR I.

[EM31]

6 hours ago, slats said:

We have a few of these so-called fans who crap on everything the team does and call it, "being a realist." That they're the only people seeing things as they really are while the rest of us are wearing homer-colored glasses. I don't see the point of that.

The team has flaws. I'll never be sold on this ownership, the coach has a ways to go for me, too. I think 8-8 is probably an optimistic projection for this season. But I'm optimistic about Joe Douglas, and Sam Darnold, still. If this draft class is half of what we hope, the team could be ready to turn a corner. Will it be this year? The only chance of that happening is if Darnold explodes. The OL is re-worked, but still very much a work in progress. The WRs were turned over but, like the OL, they're really leaning on a breakout performance by a rookie if they're hoping to be improved. 

But yeah, there's some reason for optimism, even if it's just watching the team take a step forward if not all the way back to the playoffs this year. We've still got a top QB prospect and a couple exciting rookies. No reason to crap on fans whose glasses are half-full for just being fans. 

While the highlighted text is certainly one way for this to happen, I don't think it is the only way.  If the O-Line takes a huge step forward then our running game has the chance to get back to the same point as we were with Thomas Jones and a "don't screw it up for us kid"  Mark Sanchez at QB.

If the Defense which was good last year takes a big step up into the top-5 with healthy stars and draft class contributors then the offense will be asked to do correspondingly less.

So yeah, Sam elevating his game significantly is one way for us to stay in the playoff conversation beyond week-4, maybe even the most likely of a list of unlikely outcomes but perhaps not the only one.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

All but two are winnable games for us.  Chargers, Seahawks, Rams are all entirely beatable with our talent. 

Chiefs and SF are tough challenges, no doubt.  

3-2 should be the expectation, 2-3 is acceptable.  Less than that is a huge disappointment.  

 

I'm also starting to notice that our biggest "homer" posters are the ones making the most waffling now when predicting records (some saying less than 8-8 and calling that a big positive step forward!) while the biggest doubters are expecting record improvement at a minimum from the rebuilt and far more talented Jets in 2020.  An interest dichotomy.

[Big_Slick]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

8-8 would be a disappointment.  10 wins should be the expectation, given the division, our talent, etc.

7-9 followed by 8-8, that's decidedly unimpressive in my book.  We're a better talented team than 8-8 today.

The excuses are already starting and it's barely June.

With the schedule an 8-8 would be more than acceptable. Expecting 10-6 after only one year of rebuilding the least talented team in the league is unrealistic and you know it.

That said I predict a 9-7 record and possibly a AFCE championship. But you'd still criticize the Jets for not being better seated in the playoffs. Hell, if they won the SB you'd claim that it means nothing unless they can win the next two SB's.

[Big_Slick]

2 hours ago, slats said:

Whatever your opinion on Sam Darnold is, Adam Gase and Mike McCarthy were only interested in the Jets' job because of him. Joe Douglas is here because of him. This bottom-feeding franchise fell into one of the top QB prospects to come out in the last few years, and their focus is to get the most out of that most precious asset. 

Too many variables last year to properly assess Gase, IMHO. The mono, all the other injuries, the strong finish for both the Jets and Darnold - albeit against a collection of tomato cans. The fact that before the mono and the injuries, the Maccagnan built roster had already sucked. The OL sucked, the WRs sucked. It's hard to get a fair read on Gase or Darnold from that season. 

But the priority for the franchise is Darnold over Gase until there's clear-cut evidence that Gase is the guy and Sam isn't, which is the kind of evidence that's gonna be very difficult to find. If Darnold sucks, the offense and team are also going to suck. It's more likely that Darnold will show flashes yet again and Gase's coaching will come under fire, than it is that Gase will be viewed as a solid coach despite Darnold not performing. If Darnold's not performing, it will likely be concluded that Gase isn't, either. 

My hopes and expectations are that that won't be the case. I've said many times that I expect a slow start for this completely rebuilt offense, but I want to see a strong finish against both good and bad teams down the stretch. A lot of adversity this year, but everyone has to deal with it. Teams who changed head coaches this year have it tougher than the Jets, but the Jets have it harder than teams not changing out their entire OL. Thing is, it's Sam's third year in the league, it's his career, and this is the year -despite the adversity- that he has to get it done. I wish they did more in the weapons department than they did, but it is what it is. At the end of the day, Sam is probably in a better position to save Gase's job than the other way around. And for the sake of his own career -and the team I root for- I'm hoping that's the kind of performance he puts up. 

I don't necessarily think Gase is on the hot seat to start this year, but he could get there. If Sam isn't performing, Gase is the guy most likely to not survive. The team might bring in another QB to compete with Sam, too, but they won't give Gase another shot with another QB. 

Great well thought out post!

[Jetscode1]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

Three

[Big_Slick]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Absolutely.  Its not like Gase is some first-time HC and deserves to see things out with a handpicked QB.  He's been a HC before and a long-time QB Coach and OC.  He has a long track record of QB's he's worked with at varying levels of play.  There's more than enough material on him to determine if he's the guy to help Darnold.  

If the experiment doesn't work, Gase is gone, and JD and the new HC (hopefully handpicked by Douglas, with minimal input from the Johnson's) will pick the new QB if/when it becomes necessary.  

Yep, if Sam craps the bed (which I don't expect) Gase will be the one held responsible and rightly so. Sam has the talent, without question, and with a decent OL and the new WR's and TE's coming back from injury Gase will be expected to put up points and time of possession.

[Big_Slick]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

Chargers and Rams are definitely winnable and with a few fortunate bounces the Seahawks and SF could be wins. Unless Patrick is out the Chiefs are a loss.

[Philc1]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How many of these games below are we winning?

• vs. SF
• @ Chargers
• @ Chiefs
• @ Seahawks
• @ Rams

Chargers, Rams

[Philc1]

3 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Chargers and Rams are definitely winnable and with a few fortunate bounces the Seahawks and SF could be wins. Unless Patrick is out the Chiefs are a loss.

If Jimmy G is injured we could beat the niners at home

[Warfish]

33 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

With the schedule an 8-8 would be more than acceptable.

For you, I guess.

33 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Expecting 10-6 after only one year of rebuilding the least talented team in the league is unrealistic and you know it.

I know nothing of the kind.  It's 100% realistic, teams reload hard and make major improvements every year.  We were a 7-9 team with the 2nd most injuries in the NFL, the loss of our best player on Defense the entire season, and our Franchise QB and his backup for a chuck on the season. 

Harder schedule or not, I fully expect material improvement in almost every area over 2019.  Wins, Offensive production, etc.  

33 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

That said I predict a 9-7 record and possibly a AFCE championship.

So you're giving me sh*t for expecting improvement from 7-9, yet you predict a possible Division Title.  

33 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Hell, if they won the SB you'd claim that it means nothing unless they can win the next two SB's.

[CurtMart]

56 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If we had beaten the Bills in Week 1, they wouldn't have been in a position to rest their starters in Week 17.

We went 1-1 against the Bills.  In no universe can you assume we would have swept them.

Don't be a SAR I.

We should’ve beat them wk1 With Mosley and we could’ve beat Josh Allen in wk17 as well. Anyways I’ve already predicted a split for 2020 so I’m not gonna debate how we will sweep them this year. 

[EM31]

25 minutes ago, CurtMart said:

We should’ve beat them wk1 With Mosley and we could’ve beat Josh Allen in wk17 as well. Anyways I’ve already predicted a split for 2020 so I’m not gonna debate how we will sweep them this year. 

We definitely had them dead to rights in game 1 before the miracle comeback and then they went on a roll.  The difference between us and the Bills came after that when they went on a roll and did the kind of growing as a team that every young teams hopes for. Pretty please with sugar on top I want some of that over here.

With that said and even if you concede that they are the better team right now (which i do), history tells me that these two teams have a habit of splitting even when one of them is really good and the other really bad.  And so I also expect no different outcome again this year.

[Big_Slick]

34 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yep - the strawman argument is your specialty.

[Jetsfan80]

54 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Chargers and Rams are definitely winnable and with a few fortunate bounces the Seahawks and SF could be wins. Unless Patrick is out the Chiefs are a loss.

I give us roughly a 2 % chance of beating Seattle (assuming a healthy Russell Wilson) on the road, even if there are limited fans in the seats.