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Overthecap note on 2021 cap

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For those who may have missed it, I've seen a few comments recently that seem to ignore/discount this note from Overthecap.com regarding covid impact on 2021 cap number:

 

"My guess is that you are looking at the cap to drop anywhere from $40 million from projections to $85 million for 2021".

 

https://overthecap.com/what-could-happen-to-the-salary-cap-in-2021/#:~:text=None of this takes into,million from projections for 2021.

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This could cause a LOT of good players on cap strapped teams to be released or traded next year. Very interesting..

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i get the sense that professional teams are going to take a huge hit as a result of this virus.  maybe they can exist without fans in the stands, from an economic point of view but even the people who prefer to watch from their easy chair gets some sense of the excitement that the people in the stands feel.  it's a whole lot different watching a game without fans.  Plus those same fans keep the interest going for the local media.

also, these overpaid prigs in baseball and the nba aren't making any concessions to play any semblence of a season.  sure, what they're proposing isn't the same as playing the games in the home cities but it's something while quite a few fans have been knocked on their butts.  and the fans who watch baseball aren't necessarily going to suddenly become nfl fans.

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Also was this the underlying reason why Douglas was such a tough negotiator during free agency
and was giving out one year deals?
 



JD is the chess grandmaster!


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app
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All the more reason to strip the Cheatriots of their number one pick this coming season!

 

OK, it has absolutely nothing to do with anything - but somehow, that was the first thing that came to my mind when I read this ...

I think I need a vacation. (Am considered "essential" and working non-stop. No - not in a hero role ... just a grunt.) I'm starting to feel and look like my avatar, except I am fatter ... :( 

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4 hours ago, KRL said:

Also was this the underlying reason why Douglas was such a tough negotiator during free agency

and was giving out one year deals?

 

Is this one of the reasons Cam & Clowney and Ryan having a tough time finding suitors?

Those one year deals will help us next year as well as when the Sammy deal happens. Who knows how long of an impact this lost season will have on revenue. 
 

TB may be hurting next year with the Brady/Gronk deals. No wonder why Dak Is signing the Franchise Tag

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I don’t buy it 

these franchises have increased in value exponentially in the last 20 years 

TV revenue will be there and be higher than ever 

This is a smart negotiating tactic by the owners, but it really is BS. They may lose some revenue from not being able to sell tickets in 2020, but things will be back 100% in 2021. These are the healthiest businesses in the world, they can survive a down year.

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Just now, nico002 said:

I don’t buy it 

these franchises have increased in value exponentially in the last 20 years 

TV revenue will be there and be higher than ever 

This is a smart negotiating tactic by the owners, but it really is BS. They may lose some revenue from not being able to sell tickets, but things will be back 100% in 2021. These are the healthiest businesses in the world, they can survive a down year.

Things might not be back in 2021.

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8 minutes ago, nico002 said:

I don’t buy it 

these franchises have increased in value exponentially in the last 20 years 

TV revenue will be there and be higher than ever 

This is a smart negotiating tactic by the owners, but it really is BS. They may lose some revenue from not being able to sell tickets in 2020, but things will be back 100% in 2021. These are the healthiest businesses in the world, they can survive a down year.

The salary cap isn't negotiated every year. It's based on revenue. 

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25 minutes ago, Arsis said:

Things might not be back in 2021.

Especially in Blue States

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1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

Especially in Blue States

Why are you the way you are?

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43 minutes ago, Arsis said:

Why are you the way you are?

Just stating a fact that the most stringent  of lock-downs were in blue states..... Ca. N.Y. Ma. Md. Illinois Pa. Or. etc.

These may be the states that may not allow fans back into stadiums.... unless the NFL makes a broad declaration that either all teams play with fans or none do.

Relax, not everything is political.

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1 hour ago, Arsis said:

Things might not be back in 2021.

Hahaha ok bud 

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3 hours ago, nico002 said:

I don’t buy it 

these franchises have increased in value exponentially in the last 20 years 

TV revenue will be there and be higher than ever 

This is a smart negotiating tactic by the owners, but it really is BS. They may lose some revenue from not being able to sell tickets in 2020, but things will be back 100% in 2021. These are the healthiest businesses in the world, they can survive a down year.

Salary cap is tied to revenue. Surviving a down year is a completely different story.

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10 hours ago, KRL said:

If there are big losses in 2020, that means the league and union will have to borrow from future years to keep the 2021 cap level to this year, which could mean ramifications reaching into 2022 and ’23.

This is my expectation, not the one year spike described in the OP. 

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16 hours ago, KRL said:

Also was this the underlying reason why Douglas was such a tough negotiator during free agency

and was giving out one year deals?

 

Sure seems that way

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16 hours ago, KRL said:

And that's why a smart GM doesn't rush into giving out long term contracts

Its really amazing how few media people are talking about this simple fact, which is in addition to the fact that there might not be a 2020 season.

How many people can go to their employer in the middle of arguably the most uncertain economic time in the last 50 years and demand an enormous raise, while under contract, when they know their employer could have revenue down 20-100% in the next year?

We have no idea if JD broke "his word" to Jamal, nor do we know the details of their relationship or the Gase/Adams relationship.  But to give a player a contract today, with everything going on, would be completely ridiculous and would hurt JD's long term ability to deal with players for the rest of his career.

Its not happening.

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16 hours ago, KRL said:

Also was this the underlying reason why Douglas was such a tough negotiator during free agency

and was giving out one year deals?

 

It wasn’t just Douglas.  If you look at all of the free agent contracts signed this offseason, the vast majority are on one year deals.   Very few guaranteed multi-year deals.   This will produce a lot of free agents next year and combined with a flat or lower cap, should keep player salaries down for the next season or two.  

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11 hours ago, KRL said:

Players, stop saying its just business if you can't understand the
business climate:


https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/06/22/covid-impact-market-jamal-adams-dak-prescott

• With Jamal Adams’s contract situation in the news, it’s certainly worth looking into how slow the pace of veteran extensions has been in general this offseason. Digging through it, I could find just three examples of guys getting big-time extensions with years left on their deals since America went into lockdown, without a trade being part of it (DeForest Buckner and Darius Slay got paid as part of trades). One was Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, another was Texans OT Laremy Tunsil and a third was Bills S Jordan Poyer (whose deal was done before things went really crazy). Meanwhile, contract-year stars like Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, Ronnie Stanley, Ryan Kelly, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, Keenan Allen, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, and, yes, Adams are waiting for theirs. So the natural question: Is this COVID-related? And the answer is yes. The looming revenue shortfall doesn’t just make cash an issue for some teams, it also makes projecting the cap a problem. If there are big losses in 2020, that means the league and union will have to borrow from future years to keep the 2021 cap level to this year, which could mean ramifications reaching into 2022 and ’23. You may remember back in 2010 and early ’11, teams were hesitant do long-term deals for guys because of salary cap uncertainty. Same thing, to a degree, this year. Which might mean a lot of guys waiting a while for deals. And that could add an interesting twist to the seasons of some teams.

One HUGE mistake in the article: Adams is NOT in a "contract-year".  He has 2 years left.  He doesn't even fit in with all the others on the list because of that.

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