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Rate the Adams Trade for the Jets

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273 members have voted

  1. 1. I give the Jets a grade of....

    • A+
      178
    • A
      76
    • B+
      10
    • B
      2
    • C+
      1
    • C
      4
    • D+
      0
    • D
      0
    • F
      0
    • F-
      2
  2. 2. What is your agreement with this statement: "Joe Douglass got the absolute best deal he could have reasonably been expected to get in the Adams trade"

    • Strong Agree
      243
    • Agree
      23
    • Somewhat Agree
      4
    • Somewhat Disagree
      0
    • Disagree
      1
    • Strongly Disagree
      2


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3 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Jds career is on the line. If the picks aren’t pro bowlers he loses 

Errrrrrrr

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Jamal burned all his Jet bridges.

Seattle got fleeced on this deal, period.

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I don't know how you give this anything less than A+

Seahawks fans are not happy. Like perusing their forums..there's not even the nutty type crowd that backs up the org no matter what. The most positive they get is like..."Well, he's good player, but he's a safety and there's no way you can give that up for safety who is a locker room problem"

Did not think there'd be a trade that could be mentioned in the same breath as the Hopkins trade..

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Is that because the two first rounders we received would be considered a 2020 2nd and 3rd rounder based on the chart?

Thing is, we didn't know at the time where Dallas would have been picking.  Would this still be true had the Cowboys won their division?

Yes, because we gave up the player now, not later. We get the picks back later, not now.

So we did and we didn't get a pair of 1st rounders. We did in the literal sense, duh / of course, but in terms of comparing going rate trade value on paper it isn't. If we'd gotten 2020 and 2021 picks, which we didn't, it would be totally different.

You know I'm right. If we had pick #20 this year - hell even if it was the #32 pick this year - no one would be happy at all if, when we were on the clock, instead of drafting a player we traded that pick for the package we just got back from Seattle. Looked at that way, on paper the trade value we got for Adams isn't even a single 1st round pick.

Consider:

  • We gave up Adams for the current 2020 season yet don't receive back any draft picks until the future 2021 and 2022 drafts.
  • A 1st round pick in the current year is typically given a round higher value than a 1st round pick a year later
  • Weigh the above two points even before even factoring in that Seattle would likely have to have an unprecedented meltdown for these to not be a bottom half pick in each round, with the odds - and in turn, the presumed trade value - noting that it's highly likely that each will be a bottom 5-10 pick. 
  • As plenty have noted these past weeks/months, it will be more difficult than usual to grade players in the 2021 draft due to covid. That does lower the value of the 2021 pick. 

Looked at through that lens - since Adams is leaving this year not next year - it's the pre-2020 draft trade value of 

  1. a late 2nd round pick in 2020
  2. a late 2nd round pick in 2021
  3. upgrading our 2020 mid-5th rounder to a mid-4th rounder
  4. a downgraded, but veteran starting safety in 2020 (at $3.6MM) coming off a down season (e.g. 12 missed tackles - if one trusts PFF's numbers - in 14 games)

Don't get me wrong -- I'm 100% behind Douglas making this trade. It's still a good haul under the circumstances. But it's absolutely not the same as getting a pair of 1st rounders in 2020 (which is how it's being framed - intentionally or not - by simply calling it "two 1st rounders for Jamal Adams"). Naturally that changes if Seattle finishes far worse than expected, but the trade wasn't made with that outcome in mind.  

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48 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It wasn't me, but in one sense Douglas didn't get the value of even one mid-1st round pick (i.e. Dallas' pick #17 this past draft).

I'll take this trade every day over the imaginary trade with Dallas' fans had in their dreams

 

 

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So based on the above it's hard to fully evaluate this trade without context. Specifically, did Dallas truly offer 2020 pick #17 for Adams?

If not, and if no one else offered any 2020 1st round pick for Adams, then this is an A+ trade.

However...

If Dallas did truly offer pick #17 this year for Adams, that was far superior trade value, and therefore Douglas screwed this up a bit. Yes he still got a good haul, but the grade would drop to the B- or C+ range. Think of it as hitting on your 11 vs a dealer 6 and getting a 10, instead of doubling: you won money, but in a sense you also lost money.

i.e. if we had traded Adams for Dallas' 2020 pick #17 before/during the draft, would anyone then trade that 2020 pick #17 away to Seattle for a presumed-late 1st rounder in 2021 and another presumed-late 1st rounder in 2022? Of course not; no one would.

Trading away a 1st rounder this year for 1st round picks after it result in receiving a still-good/high pick this year and that team's 1st rounder a year later. Like if we traded pick #11 this year we wouldn't get picks only in future years; we'd get a low 1st round pick this year plus that same team's 1st round pick next year. 

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11 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I'll take this trade every day over the imaginary trade with Dallas' fans had in their dreams

 

 

No you wouldn't. No one would. You're just (understandably) excited about the trade.

You absolutely would not trade pick #17 this year - in a draft with no evaluation disadvantages, which is further stacked up top at our top positional needs - for presumed pick around #27 next year and another in the same range the year after that.

You'd do it - maybe, depending on how the board looks at that time - if you were getting back #27 this year plus #27 next year. But not #27 next year plus #27 in year 3. No way.

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

So based on the above it's hard to fully evaluate this trade without context. Specifically, did Dallas truly offer 2020 pick #17 for Adams?

If not, and if no one else offered any 2020 1st round pick for Adams, then this is an A+ trade.

However...

If Dallas did truly offer pick #17 this year for Adams, that was far superior trade value, and therefore Douglas screwed this up a bit. Yes he still got a good haul, but the grade would drop to the B- or C+ range. Think of it as hitting on your 11 vs a dealer 6 and getting a 10, instead of doubling: you won money, but in a sense you also lost money.

i.e. if we had traded Adams for Dallas' 2020 pick #17 before/during the draft, would anyone then trade that 2020 pick #17 away to Seattle for a presumed-late 1st rounder in 2021 and another presumed-late 1st rounder in 2022? Of course not; no one would.

Trading away a 1st rounder this year for 1st round picks after it result in receiving a still-good/high pick this year and that team's 1st rounder a year later. Like if we traded pick #11 this year we wouldn't get picks only in future years; we'd get a low 1st round pick this year plus that same team's 1st round pick next year. 

If the Jets had sent Adams to Dallas though they likely would have had a lower pick. How would you rate if we had received #24 instead (hypothetical where Dallas lands post trade)

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No you wouldn't. No one would.

1.  No one ever said the trade to Dallas was ever proposed by anyone, so to say he didnt better a deal that exists only in fans minds is pretty meaningless.  The beginning of this was did JD make a good trade, given the circumstances, given that any team wanting to deal had the leverage, yes he made a great deal.  Im not comparing it to a deal that never existed

2. Your guessing where the Seattle picks will be in 2021 and 2022.

3.  The more picks, the more options to deal

4.  No one takes the fake deal over this deal.  3rds are a crapshoot.  So to pick 5-8 spots earlier than the made up deal I lose the additional 1?  Sorry, I dont do that 

 

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12 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No you wouldn't. No one would. You're just (understandably) excited about the trade.

You absolutely would not trade pick #17 this year - in a draft with no evaluation disadvantages, which is further stacked up top at our top positional needs - for presumed pick around #27 next year and another in the same range the year after that.

You'd do it - maybe, depending on how the board looks at that time - if you were getting back #27 this year plus #27 next year. But not #27 next year plus #27 in year 3. No way.

No, I take two ones over the one.  I'm not passing over two picks in the 20s for a 17,  and no one should 

Ever

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Just now, cant wait said:

If the Jets had sent Adams to Dallas though they likely would have had a lower pick. How would you rate if we had received #24 instead (hypothetical where Dallas lands post trade)

I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm referring to a rumored or rumored-proposed trade offer for Dallas' 2020 draft pick (#17) not their 2021 draft pick. 

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21 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

1.  No one ever said the trade to Dallas was ever proposed by anyone, so to say he didnt better a deal that exists only in fans minds is pretty meaningless.  The beginning of this was did JD make a good trade, given the circumstances, given that any team wanting to deal had the leverage, yes he made a great deal.  Im not comparing it to a deal that never existed

2. Your guessing where the Seattle picks will be in 2021 and 2022.

3.  The more picks, the more options to deal

4.  No one takes the fake deal over this deal.  3rds are a crapshoot.  So to pick 5-8 spots earlier than the made up deal I lose the additional 1?  Sorry, I dont do that 

 

I didn't say it existed. I said IF there was such an opportunity, then this isn't as good. Dallas expressed interest in Adams before, and it's hard to believe they'd think they could get him without including a 1st round pick or more. It's not a far-fetched wild guess like wondering if New England made the same offer.

I also said I'm 100% behind this trade, and further said if there wasn't any such offer for a 2020 1st round draft pick - from Dallas or anyone else - and this is the top offer he got, then it's an A+ trade.

Beyond that, yes of course I was guessing at where Seattle picks will be.

  • Both teams are making those same (educated; not blind) guesses, and they are/were both probably figuring the picks to be right around there.
  • If Seattle believed their 2021 pick would be in the teens or better, they probably wouldn't make this same trade. They probably think - with good reason - that they were likely to end up with a pick at #25 or worse before this trade, and Adams being on the team makes at least the 2021 pick, if not both picks, lower.
  • Douglas probably thinks so as well, though it goes without saying there's a chance it could be several slots higher, just like after the Richardson trade.
  • But the trade was made based on the assumption that Seattle will be a top team, with an excellent chance of at least reaching the NFCCG (though picks 27-28 would mean they didn't even get that far).

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5 hours ago, nico002 said:

What comes before A?

LOL You're right on here, nico, and I was a big supporter of signing Adams to a new deal. After the last few days though, I knew that wasn't going to happen.

How anyone could give this trade anything but an A+ is beyond me.

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38 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I'll take this trade every day over the imaginary trade with Dallas' fans had in their dreams

 

 

For sure.

One thing everyone should take from this is that all the amateur GMs here, who beat us to death with their "just a box safety" and "positional value" BS, proved is that they don't know jack.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I didn't say it existed. I said IF there was such an opportunity, then this isn't as good. Dallas expressed interest in Adams before, and it's hard to believe they'd think they could get him without including a 1st round pick or more. It's not a far-fetched wild guess like wondering if New England made the same offer.

I also said I'm 100% behind this trade, and further said if there wasn't any such offer for a 2020 1st round draft pick - from Dallas or anyone else - and this is the top offer he got, then it's an A+ trade.

Beyond that, yes of course I was guessing at where Seattle picks will be.

  • Both teams are making those same (educated; not blind) guesses, and they are/were both probably figuring the picks to be right around there.
  • If Seattle believed their 2021 pick would be in the teens or better, they probably wouldn't make this same trade. They probably think - with good reason - that they were likely to end up with a pick at #25 or worse before this trade, and Adams being on the team makes at least the 2021 pick, if not both picks, lower.
  • Douglas probably thinks so as well, though it goes without saying there's a chance it could be several slots higher, just like after the Richardson trade.
  • But the trade was made based on the assumption that Seattle will be a top team, with an excellent chance of at least reaching the NFCCG (though picks 27-28 would mean they didn't even get that far).

All of this and still I take Seattles two 1s over the imaginary trade every day.  

Theres a reason ESPN, NFLN D Woody, Seattle coverage team, etc are all talking about the haul the Jets pulled in and how much Seattle gave up.

We dont have to agree, I'm sticking with two 1s, you can hold on to your one 1

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23 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm referring to a rumored or rumored-proposed trade offer for Dallas' 2020 draft pick (#17) not their 2021 draft pick. 

Oh you mean pre-draft. I thought you meant if they had traded Adams for the Dallas pick at the trading deadline

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17 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

No, I take two ones over the one.  I'm not passing over two picks in the 20s for a 17,  and no one should 

Ever

You're not thinking it through, then, because you're ignoring when the picks occur. In terms of trade value, unless you're talking about very high 1st round picks (e.g. top 5-10), typical trade value is a round loss per year. Trading a 2nd round pick next year gets you a 3rd round pick this year. Trading a low 1st round pick this year gets you a 2nd round pick next year (so long as you don't think it's likely a very low slot, which Seattle probably will have).

To exaggerate the point for illustrative purposes, you wouldn't trade #17 in 2020 for #27 in 2026 and another in 2027. Rare exceptions aside - like everyone believing next year's class to be far superior to this one - a pick this year is worth more than a pick next year. Even more so with covid possibly clouding the 2021 class prospect evaluations in a way not seen since pre-internet + digital footage. 

You wouldn't take two later, future late 1s over an immediate pick at #17. If you tried making that trade the other way around you couldn't get it because every GM in the league would hang up on you. The way that'd work is it'd have to be 2020 #17 for Seattle's low 2020 1st round pick plus their (presumed) low 2021 1st round pick. But no way you can get pick #17 for lower-slot picks without giving up anything in the current draft. Even Maccagnan, at his very worst, wouldn't do that.

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45 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No you wouldn't. No one would. You're just (understandably) excited about the trade.

You absolutely would not trade pick #17 this year - in a draft with no evaluation disadvantages, which is further stacked up top at our top positional needs - for presumed pick around #27 next year and another in the same range the year after that.

You'd do it - maybe, depending on how the board looks at that time - if you were getting back #27 this year plus #27 next year. But not #27 next year plus #27 in year 3. No way.

Rusell wilson tears his acl the 1ts game of the year and the hawks go 5-11, then how is it?  I mean if we are speccing getting 27 for two years we can spec the hawks falling.

Also evaluating the next draft class, every team is under the same dilema

 

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You're not thinking it through, then, because you're ignoring when the picks occur. In terms of trade value, unless you're talking about very high 1st round picks (e.g. top 5-10), typical trade value is a round loss per year. Trading a 2nd round pick next year gets you a 3rd round pick this year. Trading a low 1st round pick this year gets you a 2nd round pick next year (so long as you don't think it's likely a very low slot, which Seattle probably will have).

To exaggerate the point for illustrative purposes, you wouldn't trade #17 in 2020 for #27 in 2026 and another in 2027. Rare exceptions aside - like everyone believing next year's class to be far superior to this one - a pick this year is worth more than a pick next year. Even more so with covid possibly clouding the 2021 class prospect evaluations in a way not seen since pre-internet + digital footage. 

You wouldn't take two later, future late 1s over an immediate pick at #17. If you tried making that trade the other way around you couldn't get it because every GM in the league would hang up on you. The way that'd work is it'd have to be 2020 #17 for Seattle's low 2020 1st round pick plus their (presumed) low 2021 1st round pick. But no way you can get pick #17 for lower-slot picks without giving up anything in the current draft. Even Maccagnan, at his very worst, wouldn't do that.

I'm thinking it through.  2 picks in the 20s or one pick at 17.  Its not the 1st or the 9th where the drop off can be huge or it can be a FQB over a position player.  20 over 17.  Youre looking for starters at both spots.  

And we keep talking about a trade that more than likely wasn't proposed and the last week which forced the trade. There was no reason to trade Adams before the last month where he stepped up his tirade against the owner, HC & GM.  

But just to be clear, I dont ever make the Dallas deal if it existed over the Seattle deal.  I want two 1s one the 1.  I dont subscribe to the idea that youre guaranteed to get a better player at 17 than either or the 1sts from Seattle or deal in guess work on where they will be

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Better than any trade for Adams I could have ever imagined 

We got two firsts, a third, and a reasonable veteran replacement for a strong safety who didn’t want to be on our team anymore 

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No you wouldn't. No one would. You're just (understandably) excited about the trade.

You absolutely would not trade pick #17 this year - in a draft with no evaluation disadvantages, which is further stacked up top at our top positional needs - for presumed pick around #27 next year and another in the same range the year after that.

You'd do it - maybe, depending on how the board looks at that time - if you were getting back #27 this year plus #27 next year. But not #27 next year plus #27 in year 3. No way.

I can only speak for myself, but as someone who follows the draft very closely, yeah, I'd take this haul over Pick #17.

The next two classes are looking extremely good, especially if you want OL or WRs.

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13 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I'm thinking it through.  2 picks in the 20s or one pick at 17.  Its not the 1st or the 9th where the drop off can be huge or it can be a FQB over a position player.  20 over 17.  Youre looking for starters at both spots.  

And we keep talking about a trade that more than likely wasn't proposed and the last week which forced the trade. There was no reason to trade Adams before the last month where he stepped up his tirade against the owner, HC & GM.  

But just to be clear, I dont ever make the Dallas deal if it existed over the Seattle deal.  I want two 1s one the 1.  I dont subscribe to the idea that youre guaranteed to get a better player at 17 than either or the 1sts from Seattle or deal in guess work on where they will be

Well sure there was a reason. He was already unhappy, vocal about it, outright publicly calling the GM a liar, and frankly the Jets already seemed resigned to not spending $20MM+/year on a friggin' box safety (let alone after just 3 seasons when they had him locked up for about that amount for the upcoming three; presumably Douglas can add and multiply).

Beyond that you can certainly believe what you like. Your personal preference aside, a current mid-teen 1st rounder carries a higher trade value than a pick in the mid-20s a year later plus another in the mid-20s a year after that. Expecting them to be lower-half 20s picks because of adding future HOFer Jamal Adams. 

And it's good to see you more yourself, other than the lack of insults hurled my way. You're allowed ;).

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17 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

I can only speak for myself, but as someone who follows the draft very closely, yeah, I'd take this haul over Pick #17.

The next two classes are looking extremely good, especially if you want OL or WRs.

Like I just said to your pops, personal preference aside it carries a lower trade value. 

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13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Like I just said to your pops, personal preference aside it carries a lower trade value. 

Eh.  I mean yeah, a pick later holds more value than a pick now, but as a rebuilding team, give me 2 1st round picks for later than one 1st round pick for now.  Putting it in fat kid terms, I'd rather have two large pieces of great cake than one small piece of a slightly tastier cake.

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That trade the Jets pulled off for Jamal Adams was A + .     They receive a lot for non premier position.    How well the Jets draft with those picks will eventually determine that trade grade.      Jets nail the next two drafts they can set up their franchise for the next decade.

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Just now, Mogglez said:

Eh.  I mean yeah, a pick later holds more value than a pick now, but as a rebuilding team, give me 2 1st round picks for later than one 1st round pick for now.  Putting it in fat kid terms, I'd rather have two large pieces of great cake than one small piece of a slightly tastier cake.

I think you have it reversed, but yes. Even more so given how highly regarded this past draft class was, and even more that it was so in the specific areas the team needed help the most. 

When you trade down in round 1 this year for a #1 the following year, the expectation is to get back a high pick (if not a 1st rounder) this year, not also a pick in year 3. 

I think you're getting caught up in the nominal label of a 1st round pick. You should know from your former intern buddy at a minimum, outside the top of round 1 where the values are so disproportionately higher, if you want to acquire a pick in a given round this year, you give up a pick 1 round higher next year. If you want to pick up an extra 5th rounder and don't have enough picks this year to move up, then the price is your 4th rounder next year; and so on for other rounds. Trade-wise Seattle's 2021 20-something 1st round pick has the trade value of a 2020 second round pick. Their 2022 20-something 1st round pick has the trade value of a 2020 third round pick (indirectly, one round at a time, because I don't think I've ever seen such a trade made). The only way that'd even out where Adams was traded for 1st round value is if we got use of him on the field this year and then traded him after the season. As it is they got the player this year and cough up no picks until next year and the year after that. It looks great on paper to say two #1 picks, but a pick two years from now isn't equivalent to a pick today. It just isn't.

In terms of trade value on paper, this is a 2020 second rounder plus a 2020 third rounder (plus upgrade our 2021 4th to 2021 late 3rd). If you tried to acquire the #17 overall pick and offered that up in return, you'd have no takers. 

Also if this is the top offer from any team, then if I'm Douglas I make this 10x out of 10 before Seattle comes to its senses. Truth is they're a disaster with their 1st round picks anyway. 

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6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think you have it reversed, but yes. Even more so given how highly regarded this past draft class was, and even more that it was so in the specific areas the team needed help the most. 

When you trade down in round 1 this year for a #1 the following year, the expectation is to get back a high pick (if not a 1st rounder) this year, not also a pick in year 3. 

I think you're getting caught up in the nominal label of a 1st round pick. You should know from your former intern buddy at a minimum, outside the top of round 1 where the values are so disproportionately higher, if you want to acquire a pick in a given round this year, you give up a pick 1 round higher next year. If you want to pick up an extra 5th rounder and don't have enough picks this year to move up, then the price is your 4th rounder next year; and so on for other rounds. Trade-wise Seattle's 2021 20-something 1st round pick has the trade value of a 2020 second round pick. Their 2022 20-something 1st round pick has the trade value of a 2020 third round pick (indirectly, one round at a time, because I don't think I've ever seen such a trade made). The only way that'd even out where Adams was traded for 1st round value is if we got use of him on the field this year and then traded him after the season. As it is they got the player this year and cough up no picks until next year and the year after that. It looks great on paper to say two #1 picks, but a pick two years from now isn't equivalent to a pick today. It just isn't.

In terms of trade value on paper, this is a 2020 second rounder plus a 2020 third rounder (plus upgrade our 2021 4th to 2021 late 3rd). If you tried to acquire the #17 overall pick and offered that up in return, you'd have no takers. 

Also if this is the top offer from any team, then if I'm Douglas I make this 10x out of 10 before Seattle comes to its senses. Truth is they're a disaster with their 1st round picks anyway. 

The 2020 draft is over-not sure what your point is. The Jets received a similar package that the Jags received for Ramsey and more than Raiders got for Khalil Mack. They did as well as they could. 
 

Obviously it would have been nice to have CeeDee Lamb right now, but the Jets weren’t interested in moving him before the draft-they wanted to keep him.

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5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Jets didn't do a thing wrong.  This "spiraled" because Jamal Adams is a narcissist and egomaniac. 

This is a business and the Jets treated it as such.  Given how much of a clown shoes organization this has been for the last decade, it's about time we got an adult to run things.

Well from what I’ve seen this year, with the draft etc. Douglas looks like a total Boss. 
This is just cream, he’s looking like he’s got a bit of Ozzie Newsome about him.

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6 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Well from what I’ve seen this year, with the draft etc. Douglas looks like a total Boss. 
This is just cream, he’s looking like he’s got a bit of Ozzie Newsome about him.

The Jets finally recouped the draft capital they lost in the Darnold up. Ideally the previous GM could have used the 3rd overall pick to trade down and put some pieces around him.

Sucks that this trade really doesn’t do much help Darnold/Gase in critical years. 

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I GIVE IT AN F!!!

...as in, F Jamal Adams

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27 minutes ago, GreekJet said:

The Jets finally recouped the draft capital they lost in the Darnold up. Ideally the previous GM could have used the 3rd overall pick to trade down and put some pieces around him.

Sucks that this trade really doesn’t do much help Darnold/Gase in critical years. 

Yes instead we drafted a Jag who brought a gun to an Airport. I’m more interested in the future, and the first extra 1st & 3rd comes next year. Year four of Darnold’s contract, extra young, cheap, talent is always welcome.

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You know it's a great trade for the Jets when Walter Football gave us a D.  🙄

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Amazing deal.  Now we just gotta hope Russell sits out the season or gets hurt to pump up that draft position.

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5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yes, because we gave up the player now, not later. We get the picks back later, not now.

So we did and we didn't get a pair of 1st rounders. We did in the literal sense, duh / of course, but in terms of comparing going rate trade value on paper it isn't. If we'd gotten 2020 and 2021 picks, which we didn't, it would be totally different.

You know I'm right. If we had pick #20 this year - hell even if it was the #32 pick this year - no one would be happy at all if, when we were on the clock, instead of drafting a player we traded that pick for the package we just got back from Seattle. Looked at that way, on paper the trade value we got for Adams isn't even a single 1st round pick.

Consider:

  • We gave up Adams for the current 2020 season yet don't receive back any draft picks until the future 2021 and 2022 drafts.
  • A 1st round pick in the current year is typically given a round higher value than a 1st round pick a year later
  • Weigh the above two points even before even factoring in that Seattle would likely have to have an unprecedented meltdown for these to not be a bottom half pick in each round, with the odds - and in turn, the presumed trade value - noting that it's highly likely that each will be a bottom 5-10 pick. 
  • As plenty have noted these past weeks/months, it will be more difficult than usual to grade players in the 2021 draft due to covid. That does lower the value of the 2021 pick. 

Looked at through that lens - since Adams is leaving this year not next year - it's the pre-2020 draft trade value of 

  1. a late 2nd round pick in 2020
  2. a late 2nd round pick in 2021
  3. upgrading our 2020 mid-5th rounder to a mid-4th rounder
  4. a downgraded, but veteran starting safety in 2020 (at $3.6MM) coming off a down season (e.g. 12 missed tackles - if one trusts PFF's numbers - in 14 games)

Don't get me wrong -- I'm 100% behind Douglas making this trade. It's still a good haul under the circumstances. But it's absolutely not the same as getting a pair of 1st rounders in 2020 (which is how it's being framed - intentionally or not - by simply calling it "two 1st rounders for Jamal Adams"). Naturally that changes if Seattle finishes far worse than expected, but the trade wasn't made with that outcome in mind.  

The other variable worth considering is ... what if there's no football this year due to Covid-19? ;-) 

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