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Trade Value Chart: Adams - Mack - Ramsey


win4ever
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Bottom line we fleeced the Seahawks.
I can’t be happier..


I think it’s a good deal given the situation had turned toxic. However, we can’t really determine until we know where those picks end up, and what we do with it. I used 25 as the range that Seattle should reasonably pick, but can go both ways.
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They got a player back too for what it’s worth (although he sounds like somewhat of a throw in). 


I’ll be honest, if you told me his name yesterday morning, I wouldn’t know who he is. Albeit, I also wouldn’t trust my player knowledge as the litmus test for quality lol.

He seems more like an insurance policy so Davis doesn't have to be thrust into action immediately. Given his age and skillset I think he's a placeholder until they feel comfortable with Davis.

The guy I'd keep an eye on is Hooker next year. Been injured but I believe Rogan was there when he was drafted, and fits great at FS.
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16 minutes ago, win4ever said:

 


I’ll be honest, if you told me his name yesterday morning, I wouldn’t know who he is. Albeit, I also wouldn’t trust my player knowledge as the litmus test for quality lol.

He seems more like an insurance policy so Davis doesn't have to be thrust into action immediately. Given his age and skillset I think he's a placeholder until they feel comfortable with Davis.

The guy I'd keep an eye on is Hooker next year. Been injured but I believe Rogan was there when he was drafted, and fits great at FS.

 

I remember wanting Hooker over Adams at one point in the draft- he was incredible at Ohio state. The injury history was/still is the issue with that guy though 

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The Dolphins received 3 first round picks and a 2nd for Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. 


Lauded for those deals too. I'd honestly take Fitzpatrick over Adams because I think a stud FS impacts the defense at a higher level.

Plus when dealt Fitzpatrick had 3.5 years left before a franchise tag came in to play, where Adams has 2.
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I remember wanting Hooker over Adams at one point in the draft- he was incredible at Ohio state. The injury history was/still is the issue with that guy though 


I wanted Hooker too, after trading down. I thought he'd go in the 9/10 range. I liked his play on the field better, he was a monster playing single high safety. I was happy with Adams because I bought into the whole "cultural changer, team leader" stuff that turned out to be BS. However, Adams has been the better player on the field by a fair margin.

He's not as good as Adams, don't get me wrong, but him at FS with Davis moving to SS could fit. I like Maye but he also seems to have the injury issue.

Essentially what I'm saying is, I'd rather have Hooker/Davis plus 2 premium guys in the first vs. Adams/Davis even though Adams/Davis is most likely a better combination.


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11 hours ago, win4ever said:

I just wanted to point out the trade value chart.  It revolves around multiple years in all three of these deals, so I'm assigning same value, whereas in reality a year long wait depreciates value for trades.  In this scenario, I'm assuming the Seahawks finish 25th both years in draft slot.    

Jamal Adams:

Rich Hill Model:  25th slot has value of 230, so therefore 230 times 2 = 460 + 46 for the value of the 3rd round pick.   We then subtract 32 for our 4th round pick, presuming we are picking 10th.  

Total: 474

Jimmy Johnson Model:  25th slot has value of 729, so 720 x 2 = 1440, plus 145 for the value of the 3rd round pick.  We then subtract 82 for out 4th round pick, presuming we are picking 10th.  

Total:  1503

Khalil Mack:

Rich Hill:  24th pick (237) + 196th pick (4), 19th pick (278), 81st pick (55).  We subtract 43rd pick (138) and 226th pick (no value).   

Total: 436

Jimmy Johnson Model:  24th pick (740) + 196th pick (11.4), 19th pick (875), 81st pick (185).  We subtract 43rd pick (470) and 226 has no value.  

Total:  1341

Jalen Ramsey:  

In the Rich Hill Model:  20th pick (269) + I'm assuming pick 25th for the Rams as well so (230), plus 4th round pick 23.  

Total of 522

In the Jimmy Johnson Mode:  20th pick (850), plus 25th pick (720) plus 4th round pick (52)

Total of 1622

Adams/Mack:

In the Rich Hill Model, the difference is 474 - 436 = 38 points, which is the equivalent of a very high 4th round pick.  In effect we got a top of the 4th round pick EXTRA than the Raiders did for Mack.    

In the Jimmy Johnson Model, the difference is 1503 - 1341 = 162, which is the equivalent of a lower part of the 3rd round pick.   

Adams/Ramsey:

In the Rich Hill Model, the difference is 474 - 522 = -48.  In this case, the Adams deal falls short by the equivalent value of a lower tier 3rd round pick.  

In the Jimmy Johnson Model, the difference is 1503 - 1622 = -119.  In this case, the Adams deal falls short by the equivalent value of the very end of the 3rd round.    

The Adams trade pretty much comes right in the middle.  It beats out the Mack trade fairly easily, albeit it part of it is the lack of success from the Bears.  The Ramsey trade beats out the Adams trade mainly because the Rams didn't even make the playoffs last year, when they expected the pick to be in the 27-28 range.  I picked 25th as a safe spot for the Seahawks, but obviously that's based on guesswork at this point.  If they win, deal gets worse, if they lose, deal looks even better.  

 

 

Where do you factor in McDougald and

saving the Jets a top of the D contract.  Figure 18-20 mil per

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1 hour ago, win4ever said:

 


I’ll be honest, if you told me his name yesterday morning, I wouldn’t know who he is. Albeit, I also wouldn’t trust my player knowledge as the litmus test for quality lol.

He seems more like an insurance policy so Davis doesn't have to be thrust into action immediately. Given his age and skillset I think he's a placeholder until they feel comfortable with Davis.

The guy I'd keep an eye on is Hooker next year. Been injured but I believe Rogan was there when he was drafted, and fits great at FS.

 

 

So you don't give McDougald even, say, a 7th round value?

He's been very productive the last 2 seasons, and could easily be a starter next season.  And if he outperforms Maye (very possible), we could get more than 1 year of productivity out of him.

I think that's worth the 2022 4th rounder we essentially gave up for him.

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Where do you factor in McDougald and
saving the Jets a top of the D contract.  Figure 18-20 mil per


I don't really factor in the contract situation because it was the same for all three. The Jags/Raiders/Jets all avoided paying top money over a long period of time.

McDougald, I don't know his value. He's in the last year of his contract, I believe is turning 30, and is an adequate starter, but not a stud by any means. I'm not sure what the value is for that, maybe a 7th?
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So you don't give McDougald even, say, a 7th round value?
He's been very productive the last 2 seasons, and could easily be a starter next season.  And if he outperforms Maye (very possible), we could get more than 1 year of productivity out of him.
I think that's worth the 2022 4th rounder we essentially gave up for him.


I think a 7th might be pushing it because he is 30 I think, has been decent but nothing spectacular unless we go narrow into man to man coverage. He also plays a position we've been arguing as less important with Adams.

He's only signed for this year at 4 million, ufa after that.

What's the difference between him and say signing Tre Boston? Tony Jefferson? McDougald has starting potential but I don't think it's a value where we would have given you that pick to get him in a stand alone deal. More likely he was included because he'd be the backup safety making 4 million, when they also have a youngster they want to play a bit too now behind Adams. He has 0 dead cap hit so it's worth it for the Jets to take a shot.
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29 minutes ago, win4ever said:

 


I don't really factor in the contract situation because it was the same for all three. The Jags/Raiders/Jets all avoided paying top money over a long period of time.

McDougald, I don't know his value. He's in the last year of his contract, I believe is turning 30, and is an adequate starter, but not a stud by any means. I'm not sure what the value is for that, maybe a 7th?

 

Supposedly he’s excellent in coverage.  Given that I’m thinking Maye slides over to SS where I believe he played in college and McDougald plays FS, where he has played of Davis isn’t ready or with Davis

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3 hours ago, win4ever said:

 


Lauded for those deals too. I'd honestly take Fitzpatrick over Adams because I think a stud FS impacts the defense at a higher level.

Plus when dealt Fitzpatrick had 3.5 years left before a franchise tag came in to play, where Adams has 2.

 

Yes the Steelers look like they got steal after today. 
 

I think the Tunsil trade is somewhat of a lose/lose for both teams. The Dolphins could absolutely use Tunsil with Tua set to take over. Meanwhile in Houston, Watson is athletic enough to mitigate the need for a stud LT. He also never throws the ball away and is always going to take a ton of sacks. 

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You can’t count the actual draft slot for the other trades or assume the draft slot for the hawks... when the bears got Mack they were they favorites in the North... when the rams got Ramsey they had been in the SB. Both of those trades gave up 1st in the same projected slot range as Seattle gave us... 

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3 hours ago, win4ever said:

What's the difference between him and say signing Tre Boston? Tony Jefferson?

 

The difference is that the Seahawks are known for identifying and developing secondary talent, and clearly saw value in McDougald over the last 3 seasons.

Tre Boston is a true FS.  He also wasn't available to us.  The Panthers re-signed him to a 3-year deal back in March.  I would certainly value Boston higher than McDougald, as he's younger (28) and more productive (11 INTs over the last 3 seasons).  At $6M a year that he's getting from Carolina, that's also a pretty good chunk of change; he's currently the # 21 highest paid Safety in the NFL.  Not the best comparison if you're trying to say McDougald has minimal value.

I imagine someone like Tony Jefferson, Reshad Jones, Eric Reid or maybe even Logan Ryan (candidate to move to FS) could have easily been strong candidates to bring in had we not gotten McDougald in the deal yesterday. 

But the availability of decent Safeties does not lower the value of McDougald specifically.  We're in full agreement that SS is not an important position and is rightfully valued less than any other starting position, financially, as a result.  But I'd give McDougald something like a 6th round value, weighing all the info.  A 2022 4th rounder, which is essentially what we gave up for McDougald in this deal, would have basically been equal to a 2020 6th had we traded for him prior to the draft.

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What’s missing here is that we are getting a first in the following year.  It’s not two firsts next year.

roughly speaking in GM land a pick loses roughly a round value for every year.  So in 2020 draft value it’s more like a late first and a late second and a swap between a third and a fifth (in 2020 value) + a decent starter.

This is about equal to the 10th overall pick in total draft value.  

Now of course, most GMs don’t trade their future first round picks for instant gratification second round picks so the comparison isn’t quite right, but well there it is.

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

When the college football season is canceled, these picks lose value compared to previous years. The players need games to develop. Everyone says that the Jets got a haul in picks but these are not great picks. They just aren't. Not without a cfb season.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

You can say the same thing about draft picks in 2020 given the fact that there is no rookie mini-camp, preseason, and limited training camp. Year 1 is going to be a wash for most rookies IMO.
 

Its going to be tougher to evaluate guys in the 2021 draft, but I’m sure the league will start up multiple Senior Bowl type all star games to evaluate guys. There will also be the combine. 
 

 

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Supposedly he’s excellent in coverage.  Given that I’m thinking Maye slides over to SS where I believe he played in college and McDougald plays FS, where he has played of Davis isn’t ready or with Davis


From what I read, again very limited info because I didn't know who he was, he struggled last year until Diggs came on board as the FS. So I'm guessing they are going to keep Maye at FS.
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Yes the Steelers look like they got steal after today. 
 
I think the Tunsil trade is somewhat of a lose/lose for both teams. The Dolphins could absolutely use Tunsil with Tua set to take over. Meanwhile in Houston, Watson is athletic enough to mitigate the need for a stud LT. He also never throws the ball away and is always going to take a ton of sacks. 


I think the Texans needed that one, because Watson was getting murdered, like 60 plus sacks. It went down last year, and OL is so important that I don't even know if I can blame the Texans on that one. It was a steep price, but I could live with it since Watson needs protection.

I think the Fitzpatrick deal was made with the idea that Pitt would suck and end up with a top 6 pick. I believe it was after Roethlesberger got injured, so they figured it'd be a freefall. I'd much rather have Fitzpatrick because not only is he a great FS, he can cover recievers if needed as well.
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You can’t count the actual draft slot for the other trades or assume the draft slot for the hawks... when the bears got Mack they were they favorites in the North... when the rams got Ramsey they had been in the SB. Both of those trades gave up 1st in the same projected slot range as Seattle gave us... 


They were projected similarly but it didn't end up like that. That side of the equation is already covered so figured we might as well only speculate on one side.
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The difference is that the Seahawks are known for identifying and developing secondary talent, and clearly saw value in McDougald over the last 3 seasons.
Tre Boston is a true FS.  He also wasn't available to us.  The Panthers re-signed him to a 3-year deal back in March.  I would certainly value Boston higher than McDougald, as he's younger (28) and more productive (11 INTs over the last 3 seasons).  At $6M a year that he's getting from Carolina, that's also a pretty good chunk of change; he's currently the # 21 highest paid Safety in the NFL.  Not the best comparison if you're trying to say McDougald has minimal value.
I imagine someone like Tony Jefferson, Reshad Jones, Eric Reid or maybe even Logan Ryan (candidate to move to FS) could have easily been strong candidates to bring in had we not gotten McDougald in the deal yesterday. 
But the availability of decent Safeties does not lower the value of McDougald specifically.  We're in full agreement that SS is not an important position and is rightfully valued less than any other starting position, financially, as a result.  But I'd give McDougald something like a 6th round value, weighing all the info.  A 2022 4th rounder, which is essentially what we gave up for McDougald in this deal, would have basically been equal to a 2020 6th had we traded for him prior to the draft.


I don't want to value them based on their pedigree because they also gave him up in this deal.

Boston is getting $6 million a year while Bradley makes 4. I'd rather have Boston and - $2 million cap space and keeping a pick than Bradley and 2 million cap space. I'd honestly rather have Ryan move to SS/FS than McDougald as well.

I don't think they'd value him at a 6, but I also disagree with the Wilson trade, which used a 6th.
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What’s missing here is that we are getting a first in the following year.  It’s not two firsts next year.
roughly speaking in GM land a pick loses roughly a round value for every year.  So in 2020 draft value it’s more like a late first and a late second and a swap between a third and a fifth (in 2020 value) + a decent starter.
This is about equal to the 10th overall pick in total draft value.  
Now of course, most GMs don’t trade their future first round picks for instant gratification second round picks so the comparison isn’t quite right, but well there it is.


All three deals were the same, a pick next season, then another the year after.
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On 7/26/2020 at 2:12 AM, win4ever said:

amal Adams:

Rich Hill Model:  25th slot has value of 230, so therefore 230 times 2 = 460 + 46 for the value of the 3rd round pick.   We then subtract 32 for our 4th round pick, presuming we are picking 10th.  

Total: 474

Jimmy Johnson Model:  25th slot has value of 729, so 720 x 2 = 1440, plus 145 for the value of the 3rd round pick.  We then subtract 82 for out 4th round pick, presuming we are picking 10th.  

Total:  1503

You don't seem to be taking into account that it's for the next season. I know the JJ model would rate next years #1 at an equiviliant  #2 since the #1 picks won't help us this year. The same for the following year but I assume even a bigger degradation in value because you are losing 2 seasons of JA production before you get any value from the pick. 

That being said it was a great trade

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On 7/26/2020 at 4:37 PM, win4ever said:

 


I don't really factor in the contract situation because it was the same for all three. The Jags/Raiders/Jets all avoided paying top money over a long period of time.

McDougald, I don't know his value. He's in the last year of his contract, I believe is turning 30, and is an adequate starter, but not a stud by any means. I'm not sure what the value is for that, maybe a 7th?

 

I think the Mack contract issue was a little further along.  He had already played 4 years and was legit holding out on the option.  I think Ramsey and Adams were in pretty much the same place.  

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You don't seem to be taking into account that it's for the next season. I know the JJ model would rate next years #1 at an equiviliant  #2 since the #1 picks won't help us this year. The same for the following year but I assume even a bigger degradation in value because you are losing 2 seasons of JA production before you get any value from the pick. 
That being said it was a great trade


Oh, I'm not actually tallying the draft points, because then yes, next year's first becomes a second based on time value. I'm just comparing the compensations for these three trades, and using the draft slot charts to have a numerical value associated with it.
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