Jump to content

Jets "Fleeced" Seattle? Perhaps Both Sides Did Well


Jetster
 Share

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Yawn ... Adams a SS vs probably the best FREE Safety ever... It's getting old.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Not even a strong safety should have the terrible INT numbers (zero against starting NFL QBs) that Adams has.  It's horrible.  Denying this reality is what is getting old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

This is the same team that traded a first for Percy Harvin. It didn't work out in the long term, but they got a TD from him in the Super Bowl they won. 

Trading 2 firsts and a third plus a player is a lot more than trading a first for one player and a 4th. You can't  compare. 3rd round picks have a lot of value as well

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

- Outrageous price. 2 First Rounders?!

- Man, they paid a hefty price, esp with a huge contract they must give him! Not too happy about this!

- Love the player, hate the cost. 2 Firsts for a Safety is horrible value.

- Not worth it. They over-paid compared to the LAST 3 YEARS WORTH OF TRADES. Grats I guess? Hope it was worth it. Stupid trade. Stupid stupid stupid and they will regret it. Dumb considering he isn't signed long-term.

- This seems like a massive overpay for a position that was not an area of need. A trade for defensive end or corner would make sense but strong safety? What an overpay for a guy that was pushing his way out anyway.

- Worth every penny.

 - Have you guys seen this guy play? He is Earl level. Seriously

(If they think this guy is anything like Earl Thomas, they’re on crack. If anything, he’s more of Kam) 

- J Adams is good, so good. But he just can't be as good as McDougald, 2 First Round players and a Third Round player

- Adams is a great player, but when you trade THAT MUCH DRAFT CAPITAL WHEN HE STILL NEEDS TO BE SIGNED IS ABSURD

- We massively overpaid for a guy fighting his way off his team and constantly complaining. Cant see how this could go wrong. Compare this trade to Minkah Fitzpatrick last year. We paid a ton more in draft capital plus we gave them Mcdougald who is a good player.

I may finally be ready for regime change. This reeks of desperation and all in attitude for the next 2 years. Not at all a win forever move

- His distractions have been small potatoes. I imagine he will be very happy here

- Adams is the Seahawks answer to George Kittle

Majority of them like the player but hate the price and the position. They feel as if there are more important positions that needed to be filled. JD deserves unlimited tugarounds at the game by one of the Flight Crew girls. 

  • Upvote 3
  • Sympathy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Bell is finished.  He’s too slow right now to be a quality player.  

This team had two players last year that anyone worried about. - Adams and Anderson - both are gone.

I don’t understand how this fan base can be happy with continuing to field garbage teams with garbage coaching.  

And yes, maybe I am overstating things but I’m frustrated.  I wish I could have even a bit of hope - but right now the Jets will be fighting for the floor of the AFC East with the Dolphins. Another 5-6 win, listless year to come.

 

What were you expecting? This team is in the bottom half of the league. 2020 and 2021 are about laying the foundation for the next decade. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Bell is finished.  He’s too slow right now to be a quality player.  

This team had two players last year that anyone worried about. - Adams and Anderson - both are gone.

I don’t understand how this fan base can be happy with continuing to field garbage teams with garbage coaching.  

And yes, maybe I am overstating things but I’m frustrated.  I wish I could have even a bit of hope - but right now the Jets will be fighting for the floor of the AFC East with the Dolphins. Another 5-6 win, listless year to come.

Anyone who complains about Bells speed hasn't  been following his career. Bell was never a speed back, Bell is a big bruising RB. He doesn't  out run you, he shakes you and pushes the pile and he rated really well as a pass catcher last season. This post really shows that you are just a miserable  Jets fans. There is a lot to be happy about right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s all relative, right? Two firsts in a vacuum is incredible, but if students don’t play in 2021 then the pick is considerably less valuable. The teacher in me doesn’t want a season for all the right reasons but ever since this trade the devil on my shoulder is like “Yes but it’s a lot better for the Jets if the NCAA figures this sh*t out. A Spring season at least or something bro. COME ON!!”

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, slats said:

Adams is not as good as you or he think he is. He’s very good, but he’s not, “generational.” I mean, please... ! 

Preach it. I watch every game every down, and this guy will be forgotten about quickly. We have a true leader in Mosely and twice the player. Adams was just a camera hog. Its sad fans believe what the sports media says instead of deciding for themselves. I like to make my own assumptions, always have, always will. Maye/Mcdougald/ Davis/Jackson is plenty enough good Safeties to get the job done without the baggage/distractions.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://overthecap.com/jets-trade-jamal-adams-to-the-seahawks/
 

Jets Trade Jamal Adams to the Seahawks

After months of asking to be trades the Jets finally pulled the trigger on trading away star safety Jamal Adams and boy did they get a haul for Adams from the Seahawks. Per Brian Costello the Jets will receive two first round draft picks, a third round draft pick and safety Bradley McDougald from Seattle. While this looks like a wild mortgaging of the future for the Seahawks I will try to make some sense of this and put a positive spin on it and create the overused “win-win” scenario.

A Great Move for the Jets

From a pure standpoint of expected returns and increased cap space it is hard to envision how anyone could see the Jets as anything but a massive winner in this trade. Adams tenure with the Jets has led to a grand total of 16 wins in three seasons. This is by no means a knock on him just the reality of the situation that a safety is not the difference between being a winner and a loser.

One of the ways that you can evaluate this trade is by utilizing the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft chart (shameless plug you can buy your copy on Amazon if you have not already) to come up with an idea of outcomes for the draft picks and then combine that with some of the salary cap space gained or lost by the trades in the team.

The Seahawks have made the playoffs in 7 of the last 8 seasons so while normally I would assign a middle of the round selection to an unknown draft pick I have no issues here in using the 26th pick in the draft as the expected return in 2021. The 26th pick in the draft would be worth a value that is equal to 44.2% of the top 5 player salary average at a given position. The 26thpick in the third round would be worth 23.6%.  Given how far out 2022 is I would not automatically give Seattle a playoff seed so lets call that the 19th pick which is 49.4%.

None of these players are obviously expected to be as good as Jamal Adams but on average would fit into the situational starter category. What does that mean? Well if we picked another safety with one of those picks the expected return would be a player worth in the ballpark of $6.5M a year so someone like Tre Boston, Quandre Diggs, Bobby McCain, etc…Good but not necessarily great players.

Here are the metrics on the picks using our data.

Picks Acquired Points % of Top 5 APY Long Term Rate 4 Year Rate Bust Rate
26 1,349 44.2% 35.7% 64.3% 23.2%
19 1,508 49.4% 36.4% 77.3% 4.5%
90 720 23.6% 21.6% 51.5% 29.8%

For a team as devoid of talent as the Jets you can not pass these kind of numbers up. Each pick carries over a 50% chance that they will be with the team for at least four years when you knew Adams wanted out. The odds are very small (around 4%) that you won’t get 4 years out of any of the three draft picks. When it comes to evaluating high end potential there is a 50/50 chance that at least one of these players winds up a Tier 1 player like Adams. So essentially you have a 50% chance of replacing Adams and around a 28% chance that you wind up with at least two good players.

The Jets will also give up a 19.5% 4th round pick who will have about a 5% chance of being an elite player along with Adams who we would value at the same level as the top pick in the draft. Overall the points on that would be very similar for both parties.

Then you get into the cap aspect of the move. Let’s look at the Jets break down where the options are to either keep Adams and try to salvage the situation or trade him away.

Player Cap Charge
McDougald $4,100,000
Adams 20 -$3,590,292
Adams 21 -$9,860,000
Adams Extension -$64,000,000
1st Round Pick $12,400,000
1st Round Pick $13,500,000
3rd Round Pick $4,600,000
4th round pick -$4,100,000
Total Charges -$46,950,292

For the year the Jets will actually lose cap room with the trade because McDougald will likely earn more than Adams. These numbers are assuming the trade is done now and not after the roster bonus due date in which case the cap this year is even more lopsided for the Seahawks. This is one of those things that is going to reflect bad on the Jets for those really upset with the trade but you have to take a long view here.

The Jets free up $9.86M next year and avoid an extension that costs at least $64M. For the draft picks I looked at the four year contract totals in 2020 that Jets will acquire and just rounded them up slightly since we are expecting a pretty flat cap in 21 and probably 22. If they are higher it won’t be by much.  All in all the Jets will save about $47 million in cap space for one year of McDougald and 12 combined years of draft selections versus six years of Adams and four years of a 4th round pick.

How can one criticize Joe Douglas for this trade when you see these numbers?  I get that Adams has been popular but the trade from the Jets perspective is a 50/50 chance at getting another elite player with one of their draft picks and a good chance that at least two players are above average players. They can also add a free agent who would cost around $10M a season. You tell me which situation will have the Jets win more than 5.3 games a year?

It also gives the Jets a ton of ammunition to move up in a draft and select a QB if Sam Darnold simply does not develop. I know my fellow Jets fans hate when I bring that up but through two years he has been barely average and was not a JD selection. This move certainly does little for the current Jets and is going to be spun as not giving Darnold enough to win while cheap but if Darnold is the guy he will pick up the team. If he isn’t they have to look for a new guy. Extra first rounders gives them the chance to do just that especially if Seattle happened to have a bad year because of a QB injury.

To me this is a no brainer. It gives the Jets two added picks in 2021 while Darnold is still cheap, more money to spend on free agents, draft capital if Darnold has to be replaced, and no more headaches from a player that would rip the team any chance he got.

Now here is the thing I would say regarding the trade for the future. The Jets have to spend the picks they received on premium positions. To do something like drafting a safety, running back and linebacker with their draft picks does nothing to make the team better. Even if you draft an elite talent at those spots to replace Adams it does not make the team any better than keeping Adams. You have to use the picks on players you can not buy and players that may make more of a difference. If this was the last general manager I would have zero faith in him doing that but hopefully this is different for New York.

Why Did Seattle Do This?

Seattle is in a very different spot from the Jets. While Jamal Adams was maybe the difference between 4 and 5 wins for the Jets perhaps he could be the difference between 11 and 12 or 11 and 13 wins for a really good team like Seattle. Super Bowl quality teams should take risks and with a 32 year old QB who is under contract for four more seasons you have to make moves that can get you to the big game.

Adams is going to receive a contract extension at some point worth anywhere from $15 to $17 million and is a lock unlike the draft picks which are dart throws. This is basically the return you would expect for a 1st pick in the draft as it is a superstar at a given position. The 4thround pick is a throw in but has some value. It is also important for Seattle to have a player that likely impacts 2020 and 2021 whereas the draft picks will most likely be players in 2022 and 2023 the final two years of Wilson’s current contract.

If we flip the money chart around for Seattle we can also see why they made this trade. Assuming of course that they extend Adams here are the Seahawks financials.

Player Cap Charge
McDougald -$4,100,000
Adams 20 $3,590,292
Adams 21 $9,860,000
Adams Extension $64,000,000
4th Round Pick $4,100,000
1st Round Pick -$12,400,000
1st Round Pick -$13,500,000
3rd Round Pick -$4,600,000
Total Charges $46,950,292

While there is definitely an opportunity cost given up with all those draft picks when you pull their salaries out of the equation the net impact will be around $7.8M for six years of Jamal Adams. So while their contract charts are one day going to read that they are paying $16M or $17M for a safety they are going to look at this as getting him for a net cost that is much cheaper. Even if you want to say that this is too rosy a view lets call Adams the Seahawks first rounder next year. That’s about $10.85M in net costs for Adams. I think you can make a case for this being a reasonable use of financial resources as it’s the cheapest way to get a star player if money is the bottom line.

Does that mean I would have done this if I was Seattle? Absolutely not because I can not believe the Jets had any market like this. It is no secret the Jets shopped Adams last year and it is no secret that the highest the bidding went is a 1 and a 3. How do you go from a 1 and a 3 to two 1’s and a pick swap? Especially after the player criticized every single person in the organization in the local newspaper. Not only that but he had a $2.8M roster bonus coming up in a few days (again assuming the Jets are not paying this) which means time was on Seattle’s side.

Seattle has been down this road before with Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham neither of whom lived up to the billing in Seattle and maybe they just can’t help themselves. Sometimes teams get excited and do things they should not do. I wonder how Houston must feel realizing that the Jets just fleeced the Seahawks for Adams when they traded away Jadeveon Clowney to the same team for a bag of peanuts last year.

The other negative for Seattle is the fact that they did this deal with no extension. This is exactly the same mistake Houston made last year when trading for Laremy Tunsil and the Rams made when trading for Jalen Ramsey. It gives so much leverage to the player in contract negotiations and the Texans paid dearly for it when they signed Tunsil to a $22M a year extension. While Adams will be happy to be out of NY this year I am not sure that he will be happy to play next year with no extension and giving up all that draft capital for just two years of Adams if they don’t want to extend him makes no sense at all. This are all things that teams need to do prior to a trade.

The other issue with the trade for Seattle and this goes kind of to what I mentioned about the Jets above with how to approach the draft is that this is a position that you can address in free agency. In the last few years there have been a few big trades for multiple 1s but only one player (Khalil Mack) was the type of player you would never see in free agency. You see great safeties in free agency. You see great corners in free agency. You see great left tackles in free agency. I get that those two rookie years on a contract are valuable but these positions have an alternate route if you are patient and plan well.

So I can understand why Seattle wanted to get Jamal Adams and can say that he will have an impact on the team this year but there was a different path for them here that could have been realized by being a bit more patient. Under no circumstance should two 1s be traded for a safety especially an unhappy one. We can make a strong case for why they did it but a far stronger case for a better way to do it.

Adams and NFL Players Are Also Big Winners

Adams use of social media and most recently traditional media to his advantage was perfect. He wanted out and got out. Antonio Brown did the same thing twice last year. Ramsey did it though not to the same degree last season. While it does not always work (Yannick Ngakoue cant shake free of the Jaguars) it is becoming something that more and more teams need to be aware of. Everyone is starved for content and I think is fascinated by what players are thinking about the teams they play for. Players have a voice and can use it for many things and this one of them.

If Adams never took to Instagram or made his beefs with the Jets public we probably are not sitting here today talking about an Adams trade. More and more players are going to follow this model when they land with a bad team in the draft. I don’t know how teams evaluate this when they make a pick but they need to figure out better ways for damage control when it happens. Adams absolutely dragged the Jets down and while this trade haul will make it easier with the fanbase my guess is the majority of fans are upset with the team right now because the Jets caused this situation to spiral out of control. Luckily they found a trade partner who was willing to part with a haul but that never should have happened. It is definitely an interesting way for players to exert leverage.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good player, plays a non premium position, cap is going down next year, who wants to pay a guy $20mill for a non premium position?  
 

He will no doubt, give Sea a discount because he damaged his “brand” but to get the haul we got under these circumstances is remarkable.... 10/10. 
 

Sea should be finding more weapons for Wilson in his prime, the league is about the O now....  very curious decision by them...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, slats said:

Seattle fans are already questioning the value of this trade. Next year, when they have one pick in the top 100 and the Jets have five, they’ll be questioning it even more. The following year, when they’re paying a SS $18M/year and they still don’t have a first round pick, they’ll be in open revolt short of a Super Bowl. 

So just when the city reconciles, it will be time to resign Jamal. Should bode well for all sides. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

What were you expecting? This team is in the bottom half of the league. 2020 and 2021 are about laying the foundation for the next decade. 

What foundation are you referencing?

the one where we signed, almost exclusively, one year deals? Or the one where we let our only good young players leave?
you don’t build a foundation one year deals and bad football players. 

  • Thumb Down 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Anyone who complains about Bells speed hasn't  been following his career. Bell was never a speed back, Bell is a big bruising RB. He doesn't  out run you, he shakes you and pushes the pile and he rated really well as a pass catcher last season. This post really shows that you are just a miserable  Jets fans. There is a lot to be happy about right now.

I’m sorry but this is an old argument.  Watch film of him in Pitt then watch him last year there’s a clear decline in his speed.   Yes, he’s a smart patient runner but he lost the burst he had.  He waits for the hole to open and then hit it.  He’s just not getting through that hole anymore. Just too slow. 

  • Thumb Down 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

What foundation are you referencing?

the one where we signed, almost exclusively, one year deals? Or the one where we let our only good young players leave?
you don’t a foundation one year deals and bad football players. 

Look you clearly don’t like Douglas.  You whine about literally every move he has made.  Be objective at least.  Other than the Kalil signing he had done a real good job.  Just because he didn’t dish out monster contract to a couple players(like we used to do) doesn’t meant they are bad players.  He is building through the draft while also seeing who else will be apart of the future.  He had given us flexibility in the cap.  1 year deals are t a bad thing.  If they perform well we resign them or they go and we get comp picks.  Either way it’s a good move

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, slats said:

Seattle fans are already questioning the value of this trade. Next year, when they have one pick in the top 100 and the Jets have five, they’ll be questioning it even more. The following year, when they’re paying a SS $18M/year and they still don’t have a first round pick, they’ll be in open revolt short of a Super Bowl. 

If they don’t play the top 100 will be a total crapshoot. If they do Seattle set themselves up for some problems. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

What foundation are you referencing?

the one where we signed, almost exclusively, one year deals? Or the one where we let our only good young players leave?
you don’t build a foundation one year deals and bad football players. 

The one we'll build with these extra draft picks and the cap space we use in a loaded free agent class next off-season. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I did a separate thread on this, and based upon my subjective draft values (guessing at the position of the Jets and Seahawks 2021 and 2022 draft slots), the deal worked out to be the value of an overall  #7 pick.

That seems fair to both sides.

The no doubter that everyone has said, is Douglas needs to hit.

 

Not in the draft table numbers is the overall trade nets likely 4 players for the Jets and 2 for the Seahawks. So, with double the players perhaps Jets have a better chance to hit there.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

JD did a nice job waiting for the best deal, and when you think about it, Seattle is likely the only team that would value Adams as they did.

1) The Jets had a player who had decided he would be a complete and total negative distraction to the franchise. Seattle has experience with outspoken players and seems to be ok with it even when it is negative. It probably helped that Seattle had experience with a similar issue with chancellor and worked their way through it.

2) if you rank the positions on a football team by value. i.e. which positions would you most benefit from having the #1 player in the league on your team, it would go something like for almost every organization. QB, OLB, CB, LT, WR ..... with S only ahead of G, P, K. Pete Carrol, however, highly values Safety play in his D. This has always been true of Carrol. His great Ds were always driven by great Safety play.

So, in reality, Seattle didn’t get fleeced because Adams has high value to them and JD did a good job waiting for the team which valued Adams the most to come calling and then getting very good value in return.

It was a win win. And, most importantly, thats what every GM wants because if you develop a reputation for “fleecing” other GMs no one will trade with you.

While I wish Adams the best of luck with his new team, i do believe he has tarnished his brand. I also have concerns that his skillset at S may be less than ideal for where the NFL is headed Offense-wise and wouldn’t be surprised to see him play at a hybrid LB/S position created to make the most of his strengths of reading plays and making an impact at the point of attack. In fact, i could see Carrol naming the position Prez.

 

  • Post of the Week 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Anyone who complains about Bells speed hasn't  been following his career. Bell was never a speed back, Bell is a big bruising RB. He doesn't  out run you, he shakes you and pushes the pile and he rated really well as a pass catcher last season. This post really shows that you are just a miserable  Jets fans. There is a lot to be happy about right now.

He was never a fast back, but he was still explosive. 

Revis despite a good 40 time was never a burner at CB, but was fast enough combined with perfect technique and instincts to be an elite HOF player. You saw however when he lost a step late in his career the technique and instincts didn’t save him. 
 

I fear the same situation with Bell-He used to be fast/explosive enough combined with everything else he did, but now he is not. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

If they don’t play the top 100 will be a total crapshoot. If they do Seattle set themselves up for some problems. 

Yes. And no.

The fluidity of the top 100 is not so great, in that there are great fluctuations on those rankings from the beginning of the college season, to the end of the combine (and I believe the combine will happen). Of course, the ability to hone in on individual talent will be diluted. 

Most importantly for the Jets regarding this trade is how the top 30 plays out, as that is the largest component of this trade. 

What we have to hope is that the Jets have put together a great talent evaluation team, as those units will make a bigger diffrence than in other years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

If they don’t play the top 100 will be a total crapshoot. If they do Seattle set themselves up for some problems. 

The draft next year will likely be much more crap-shooty than most drafts, which people like to describe as crap-shoots, but I’m perfectly content to have those extra picks. Gives Douglas a lot of options, including trading 2021 picks for higher 2022 picks. 
 
There’s almost certainly gonna be some college football this year. It’ll be different, maybe less, but there’s just too much money involved for the schools and for the star players who want to showcase themselves before declaring for next year’s draft. It may not be wise, but it’s gonna happen. There will be a combine, players will be tested, and those picks will have value. I doubt we’ll be discussing next year’s draft much differently than most. We’ll all have players we like and don’t like every year. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Look you clearly don’t like Douglas.  You whine about literally every move he has made.  Be objective at least.  Other than the Kalil signing he had done a real good job.  Just because he didn’t dish out monster contract to a couple players(like we used to do) doesn’t meant they are bad players.  He is building through the draft while also see who else will be apart of the future.  He had given us flexibility in the cap 

Everyone talks about 1 year deals for our Jets players by JD, well the players Lewis at G and Griffin at TE showed they were worth keeping longer term than that with their level of play and got extended. Others that didn't weren't retained and that is how it will go moving forward and should. Prove yourself and you'll be a part of the future, if not you won't be. That makes sense doesn't it?. Who should be retained for doing sub-par work?.

  • Upvote 1
  • Post of the Week 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...