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Jeremiah Tweet: Douglas & Late 1st Picks


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1 hour ago, kevinc855 said:

Great! Let’s look over the other list of busts from 22-32. No difference between early 2nd round essentially. His picks on this deal will define his career. He played chicken, now he better be right 

There is nothing wrong with having more first round selections than a team you want to trade with. He can trade up for a better player, trade back for more draft picks, or take the players as they land without dealing the Jets normal picks for  the next two years. How does this turn out badly? 

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1 hour ago, kevinc855 said:

Great! Let’s look over the other list of busts from 22-32. No difference between early 2nd round essentially. His picks on this deal will define his career. He played chicken, now he better be right 

No difference between the 25 pick in the draft or 35th pick in the draft?  I couldn't disagree with you more.  The Jets picked up Mangold on the 31st pick of the first round.  Would he have been there at 35?  We will never know, but Mangold turned out to be one of the best centers in Jets history.  

It really comes down to who is evaluating the talent.  If you can't evaluate talent, then it really doesn't matter where you make the picks, do you?  But if you are able to evaluate talent, then it makes a HUGE difference between the lower 1st round and the early 2nd round.

If you were going to tell me that there is no difference between the bottom of the 4th round and the top of the fifth round, then I probably would not have disagreed with you.

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1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

I love the deal. But aren’t the picks the equivalent of 2,3,4

the two first are a year away and 2 years away dropping the value a round each year making them basically a 2&3, the third is the value of a 4th or do I have this completely wrong? 

Completely wrong. 21 is next years Draft. 

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3 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

If this trade went down draft day picks in the 21 draft we’re basically considered a round lower,no?  What’s the difference now. It’s not like another game was played

That’s just an arbitrary thing from the draft chart.... it’s a 1st rounder. 

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4 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

If this trade went down draft day picks in the 21 draft we’re basically considered a round lower,no?  What’s the difference now. It’s not like another game was played

The draft is over. That's the difference.

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2 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Great! Let’s look over the other list of busts from 22-32. No difference between early 2nd round essentially. His picks on this deal will define his career. He played chicken, now he better be right 

It’s fine that you’re a big Jamal fan but this was a great trade for us.  You were never getting a top 10 pick.  But getting two firsts and a third is a major haul.  Plus knowing JD he likes to move around in the draft so have so much extra Ammo gives Us more flexibility to target certain players 

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3 minutes ago, nico002 said:

That’s just an arbitrary thing from the draft chart.... it’s a 1st rounder. 

There both first in my mind also. Just curious how the “draft chart” values picks traded after the draft for the following draft before the season starts 

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Just now, Anthony Jet said:

There both first in my mind also. Just curious how the “draft chart” values picks traded after the draft for the following draft before the season starts 

Generally one round down. So before this year’s draft, a 2021 first round pick would’ve counted as a 2020 second rounder. This is the value that @Sperm Edwards has talked about the last couple days. Practically, the Jets have downgraded at SS this year and have nothing to show from that trade to help improve the team for the 2020 season. This year, the Seahawks have the better end of the deal. Next year, when Jamal proves to not be such a difference maker and the Seahawks are out their 1st & 3rd round picks, the Jets will suddenly move way out ahead. Throw in Seattle’s contract headaches with him just for laughs and another 1st rounder in 2022? Damn, draft chart grades be damned, that’s a haul. 

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3 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Great! Let’s look over the other list of busts from 22-32. No difference between early 2nd round essentially. His picks on this deal will define his career. He played chicken, now he better be right 

I would’ve traded that dickhole for two high 2nd rounders, a 3rd and a quality starting safety in a heartbeat.

But Big Dick Joey D stepped in and said “slow down there, chief...I think we can get more”.

And we did. And I applaud him. Vigorously.

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32 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

I love the deal. But aren’t the picks the equivalent of 2,3,4

the two first are a year away and 2 years away dropping the value a round each year making them basically a 2&3, the third is the value of a 4th or do I have this completely wrong? 

I've never bought into this logic when I've heard it before. A first round pick in 2022 which is traded in 2020 is still a first round pick in 2022 as they still draft that pick in the first round. While people talk about picks like currency picks aren't currency. Picks don't suffer from inflation and the draft is different every year as some drafts have more talent than others.

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Rather than paying a safety with a record contract, the Jets will be able to pay Darnold if needed and have extra high draft picks to build a roster with more guys on rookie deals. Having cracks at the fifth year option on four guys over the next two years is big.

A few other thoughts.

The Jets really need to continue to build around Darnold on offense but also have needs at a couple of premium positions on defense - edge and corner. This allows them to continue drafting offense but address defense if the situation is right.

Douglas drafted a premium position in the first last year. I think we may be done with defensive tackles, inside linebackers, and safeties in the first round for a bit. Four cracks at premium positions could be massive for setting this roster up, even if all don’t hit.

Knowing Douglas is a big trade down guy, he could move down with one of those picks and really just stockpile and take a bunch of shots. Comp game is potentially starting next year too.

Buys the Jets a little extra financial flexibility heading into next offseason with cap uncertainty. Could be a very, very good thing.

The roster is obviously worse now than it was with Adams, though less headache inducing. Not sure they do it, but if Douglas lands Clowney for just money how much worse is it?

Everyone assumes these picks are going to be in the 20’s. Not much that can happen except they get better. Seattle plays in a really tough division - 49ers, Rams, even Cardinals on the rise. They now lack assets to add cheap young talent over the last couple years. Really need Wilson to stay healthy. Won a lot of close games last year, too. Definite regression candidate. Picks could be better than expected.

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2 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

There is nothing wrong with having more first round selections than a team you want to trade with. He can trade up for a better player, trade back for more draft picks, or take the players as they land without dealing the Jets normal picks for  the next two years. How does this turn out badly? 

Some people own a #33 jersey and wouldn't be happy if we got 5 first round picks in return for their faux hero.

We got excellent compensation, more than I ever thought we'd get and I'll gladly eat crow on that.

Seattle is in a tough division things could turn sour for them and our compensation will look even better.

I see no downside here. 

Jamalbros are gonna take it rough. Which will only make the process more enjoyable.

 

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2 hours ago, Anthony Jet said:

I love the deal. But aren’t the picks the equivalent of 2,3,4

the two first are a year away and 2 years away dropping the value a round each year making them basically a 2&3, the third is the value of a 4th or do I have this completely wrong? 

2021 is the upcoming draft so it has it's 1st rd value. 

but the truth is what you're talking about really only gets used when valuing picks as a singular unit against another pick.   It's just a way to measure the delay in receiving the value. Its far from accurate. 

A 1st rd pick is a first rd pick.  If we didn't get a 2021 1st and only had the 2022 and 2023 picks we might feel like this system applies but not really. 

Now that I've confused myself I'm gonna go to sleep. Long drive to St Louis in the mornin. :)

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5 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Great! Let’s look over the other list of busts from 22-32. No difference between early 2nd round essentially. His picks on this deal will define his career. He played chicken, now he better be right 

Just look at what he did this year in the draft. We have posters that normally stick to the draft forum that are ecstatic for the first time in 15 years. We finally have the right man in charge and I've been saying it since before he was hired. 

We just set our organization up for a windfall by getting rid of a malcontent that threw all of his teammates under the bus. Good fvckin riddance. 

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If we had SEA's 1st rounder this year, here are some of the names that were on the board at that pick:

  • LB - Patrick Queen
  • OT - Isaiah Wilson
  • RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  • WR - Tee Higgins
  • WR - Michael Pittman

The prior year you had guys like this on the board:

  • Andre Dillard
  • Josh Jacobs
  • Marquise Brown
  • Deebo Samuel

So a possibly fair question to ask is, would you take any two of those guys, plus McDougald and a 3rd for Adams and a 4th.  I can see some combinations that I think I'd have made that trade for.  Yes, I'm cherry picking the best of the players available at those picks, but the fact is, they were there, so it's not unfair to assume similar talents will be available in the next two years.

 

 

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2 hours ago, nycdan said:

If we had SEA's 1st rounder this year, here are some of the names that were on the board at that pick:

  • LB - Patrick Queen
  • OT - Isaiah Wilson
  • RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  • WR - Tee Higgins
  • WR - Michael Pittman

The prior year you had guys like this on the board:

  • Andre Dillard
  • Josh Jacobs
  • Marquise Brown
  • Deebo Samuel

So a possibly fair question to ask is, would you take any two of those guys, plus McDougald and a 3rd for Adams and a 4th.  I can see some combinations that I think I'd have made that trade for.  Yes, I'm cherry picking the best of the players available at those picks, but the fact is, they were there, so it's not unfair to assume similar talents will be available in the next two years.

 

The best teams are constantly picking in the back end for a reason.  They keep winning AND adding talent despite picking late.  They take a lot of "big swings" because they can.  And a lot of them hit.  I find myself always looking at those late 1st round picks from the likes of Baltimore and KC and thinking "OK, that's a great pick."  It's doesn't always come to fruition, but more often than not it works out.

My guess is Joe Douglas is one of those GM's that will end up picking in the back end of the 1st round for a long time to come, starting in 2021.  These picks from Seattle will just be good practice.  :)

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