The Jets roster in 2021: Why Douglas will need every one of those picks/cap dollars

[Jetsfan80]

Lost in what appeared to be a very good offseason for Douglas is just how thin this roster remains (whether Adams was on it or not), thanks to Mike Maccagnan.

That will be demonstrated even further when you look at who on the current roster will be left over in 2021.

Likely Departures after 2020 (or prior):

• RB Le'Veon Bell (via cut; $9.5-$11.5M in cap savings)
• ILB Avery Williams (free agent)
• OLB Jordan Jenkins (free agent)
• DE Henry Anderson (via cut; $8.2M in cap savings)
• RB Frank Gore (free agent)
• WR Quincy Enunwa (via cut; $6M in cap savings)
• G Brian Winters (free agent)
• QB Joe Flacco (free agent)
• WR Josh Doctson (free agent)
• ILB Neville Hewitt (free agent)
• ILB James Burgess (free agent)
• C Jonotthan Harrison (free agent)
• WR Josh Bellamy (free agent)
• QB David Fales (free agent)
• G Josh Andrews (free agent)
• RB Kenneth Dixon (free agent)

Possible Departures after 2020 (or prior):

• WR Jamison Crowder (via cut/trade; $10.5M in cap savings -- Also a candidate for restructure/extension)
• WR Breshad Perriman (free agent)
• OT George Fant (via cut; $7.4M in cap savings)
• G Alex Lewis (via cut; $5.4M in cap savings)
• G Greg Van Roten (via cut; $3.3M in cap savings)
• CB Pierre Desir (free agent)
• S Marcus Maye (free agent)
• CB Brian Poole (free agent)
• CB Arthur Maulet (free agent)
• NT Steve McLendon (free agent)
• S Bradley McDougald (free agent)
• ILB Patrick Onwuasor (free agent)
• ILB Blake Cashman (via cut; $773K in cap savings)
• EDGE Tarell Basham (free agent)
• CB Nate Hairston (free agent)
• CB Quincy Wilson (free agent)
• WR/KR Vyncint Smith (via cut)
• WR/PR Braxton Berrios (via cut)
• RB/KR Trenton Cannon (via cut)
• DT John Franklin-Myers (via cut)

Will all of these players be gone?  Of course not.  But none are safe.  

That leaves following players as the only virtual locks to be on the team in 2021, based on both importance to the team and/or the financial pitfalls or limited upside of cutting/trading them.

Virtual Locks

QB

• Sam Darnold
• James Morgan

RB

• La'Mical Perine

WR

• Denzel Mims
• Jamison Crowder (with likely restructure/extension)

TE 

• Chris Herndon
• Ryan Griffin
• Trevon Wesco

OL

• LT Mekhi Becton
• C Connor McGovern
• G Cameron Clark
• OT Chuma Edoga

DL

• Quinnen Williams
• Folorunso Fatukasi
• Nathan Shepherd
• Kyle Phillips

DE/EDGE

• Jabari Zuniga

ILB

• CJ Mosley

CB

• Blessuan Austin
• Bryce Hall

FS

• Ashtyn Davis

Special Teams

• P Braden Mann
• LS Thomas Hennessy

 

And that's it.  A core of 23 players who are virtual locks to make the team.  Crowder is very close to being a "lock", I imagine, though with a restructure/extension as I noted above.

Yes, a bunch of the players from the "possible cuts" and even 1-2 from the "likely cuts" list will make the 2021 roster.  2020 will be one big audition to determine who on the current roster wins these battles:

• WR2/WR4/WR5:  Perriman/Vyncint Smith/Lawrence Cager/George Campbell/Doctson
• LG/RG:  Winters/Lewis/Van Roten
• ILB2/ILB3/ILB4:  Williamson/Onwuasor/Hewitt/Cashman/Burgess
• CB1/CB2/CB4:  Desir/Maulet/Quincy Wilson/Nate Hairston/Lamar Jackson/Javelin Guidry/Shyheim Carter
• SS:  Maye/McDougald
• K:  Ficken/Maher
• PR:  Berrios (competing with roster locks Ashtyn Davis/Crowder to justify his spot)

In the end, barring some surprises, we will likely have the following key needs after 2020, at minimum:

• RB1 (or RB2 if Perine proves to be starting caliber)
• RB3
• WR1 (or WR2 if Mims proves to be a WR1 after his rookie season)
• WR3/WR4
• LG
• RG
• RT
• DE/EDGE
• OLB
• CB1
• CB2
• K

[Lurker89]

Way to compile some data.

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Way to compile some data.

 

I wasn't really saying anything anyone didn't already know but it's always helpful, to me, to crystallize how the roster looks a year ahead.  Especially after a major event like this weekend's trade.

[nycdan]

I don't see a name on the 'likely' list that I'm sad about.  Not one.

Some of the 'possibles' will probably play well this season and be retained.  Hoping for good things from Desir, Perriman, Maye, Crowder, Poole and McDougald.  

So having more picks to work with (and more cap from not signing Adams) will help fill a lot of holes that need some filling.  Unfortunately that points to 2022 as being when we should have a solid roster at best, but better to plan for it this way than to keep patching a leaky roof and never getting dry.

[Jetsfan80]

45 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I don't see a name on the 'likely' list that I'm sad about.  Not one.

Some of the 'possibles' will probably play well this season and be retained.  Hoping for good things from Desir, Perriman, Maye, Crowder, Poole and McDougald.  

So having more picks to work with (and more cap from not signing Adams) will help fill a lot of holes that need some filling.  Unfortunately that points to 2022 as being when we should have a solid roster at best, but better to plan for it this way than to keep patching a leaky roof and never getting dry.

Yep.  I'd estimate at least half of the guys on the "possibly" list will be back.  These are my picks to return:

• Crowder (with a restructure/extension only; if not he gets cut)
• Perriman
• Fant (even if he is only "meh" he'd provide depth as a swing Tackle)
• Van Roten
• Desir
• Poole
• McDougald
• Onwuasor
• Berrios (possible Crowder replacement at slot + Punt Returner versatility)

Maye, Lewis, McLendon, Maulet, Cashman, Baham, Hairston, Wilson, Vyncint Smith, Cannon and Franklin-Myers would all be gone in that instance.

I'd hate to lose McLendon's leadership and presence but he'd be the first of several casualties of the team moving towards more 4-3 looks.  That transition won't really take full effect until Mosley is, gone, but McLendon will also be 35 in 2021.  

Speaking of more 4-3 looks, I've been forgetting that that will mean basically an entirely new LB corps and front 7 in general, with Zuniga, Quinnen Williams and maybe Bryce Huff as the "core" guys we build around.  So we'll need to use quite a few picks there as well over the next several seasons.

[nycdan]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  I'd estimate at least half of the guys on the "possibly" list will be back.  These are my picks to return:

• Crowder (with a restructure/extension only; if not he gets cut)
• Perriman
• Fant (even if he is only "meh" he'd provide depth as a swing Tackle)
• Van Roten
• Desir
• Poole
• McDougald
• Onwuasor
• Berrios (possible Crowder replacement at slot + Punt Returner versatility)

Maye, Lewis, McLendon, Maulet, Cashman, Baham, Hairston, Wilson, Vyncint Smith, Cannon and Franklin-Myers would all be gone in that instance.

I'd hate to lose McLendon's leadership and presence but he'd be the first of several casualties of the team moving towards more 4-3 looks.  That transition won't really take full effect until Mosley is, gone, but McLendon will also be 35 in 2021.  

Yeah, I forgot to add Van Roten because I assume he's a lock to play at least decently well and be retained.

McLendon is an interesting one.  I think he's a great player and locker room guy, but in a perfect world, some combination of Shepherd, QW and Fatukasi would make him a backup, but if he's still effective, he's not expensive so I'd love to see him stay.

[derp]

I think at least half of the probably list should be back. But Douglas certainly has his work cut out.

He also did a ton of work this past offseason to even get the roster to that point. Just has to keep chipping away.

Jets have been alternating between GM’s who build through the draft and ones who go wild in FA and don’t value picks. Building through the draft is the only sustainable approach...but you need to be able to draft. This one was promising but we’ll need to see how the guys do on the field obviously.

[Jetsfan80]

16 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Yeah, I forgot to add Van Roten because I assume he's a lock to play at least decently well and be retained.

McLendon is an interesting one.  I think he's a great player and locker room guy, but in a perfect world, some combination of Shepherd, QW and Fatukasi would make him a backup, but if he's still effective, he's not expensive so I'd love to see him stay.

Employing 2 Nose Tackles on the roster when it seems clear we'd like to be more of a 4-3 team just doesn't make a lot of sense, unfortunately.  McLendon or Fatukasi:  One will have to go after this season, is my guess.  And if that's the case, since McLendon is 9 years older, and Fatukasi is cheaply under contract thru 2021, that makes that decision easy.  

I'd love to one day bring McLendon back as a coach.

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, derp said:

I think at least half of the probably list should be back. But Douglas certainly has his work cut out.

He also did a ton of work this past offseason to even get the roster to that point. Just has to keep chipping away.

Jets have been alternating between GM’s who build through the draft and ones who go wild in FA and don’t value picks. Building through the draft is the only sustainable approach...but you need to be able to draft. This one was promising but we’ll need to see how the guys do on the field obviously.

We haven't seen our rookies play a down but the logic behind the picks, and the in-draft trades Dogulas made, were sound. 

He won each of those trades per the traditional value chart, prioritized premium positions, and took a lot of elite athletes; particularly Becton, Mims and Zuniga were off the charts.  Zuniga was an especially promising pick, since athleticism matters at EDGE more than any other position, demonstrating that Douglas will care about advanced analytics and actually put them to good use..  And in the mid-late rounds he took big swings (like Bryce Hall), which you need to do from time to time.  

Not all of those guys will work out, of course.  But it's a draft class to get excited about.  And it's telling that JN draftniks like @Paradis and @RobR were far more excited about it than they've been in a long time (maybe ever) since following the Jets.

[Paradis]

15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Lost in what appeared to be a very good offseason for Douglas is just how thin this roster remains (whether Adams was on it or not), thanks to Mike Maccagnan.

That will be demonstrated even further when you look at who on the current roster will be left over in 2021.

Likely Departures after 2020 (or prior):

• RB Le'Veon Bell (via cut; $9.5-$11.5M in cap savings)
• ILB Avery Williams (free agent)
• OLB Jordan Jenkins (free agent)
• DE Henry Anderson (via cut; $8.2M in cap savings)
• RB Frank Gore (free agent)
• WR Quincy Enunwa (via cut; $6M in cap savings)
• G Brian Winters (free agent)
• QB Joe Flacco (free agent)
• WR Josh Doctson (free agent)
• ILB Neville Hewitt (free agent)
• ILB James Burgess (free agent)
• C Jonotthan Harrison (free agent)
• WR Josh Bellamy (free agent)
• QB David Fales (free agent)
• G Josh Andrews (free agent)
• RB Kenneth Dixon (free agent)

Possible Departures after 2020 (or prior):

• WR Jamison Crowder (via cut/trade; $10.5M in cap savings -- Also a candidate for restructure/extension)
• WR Breshad Perriman (free agent)
• OT George Fant (via cut; $7.4M in cap savings)
• G Alex Lewis (via cut; $5.4M in cap savings)
• G Greg Van Roten (via cut; $3.3M in cap savings)
• CB Pierre Desir (free agent)
• S Marcus Maye (free agent)
• CB Brian Poole (free agent)
• CB Arthur Maulet (free agent)
• NT Steve McLendon (free agent)
• S Bradley McDougald (free agent)
• ILB Patrick Onwuasor (free agent)
• ILB Blake Cashman (via cut; $773K in cap savings)
• EDGE Tarell Basham (free agent)
• CB Nate Hairston (free agent)
• CB Quincy Wilson (free agent)
• WR/KR Vyncint Smith (via cut)
• WR/PR Braxton Berrios (via cut)
• RB/KR Trenton Cannon (via cut)
• DT John Franklin-Myers (via cut)

Will all of these players be gone?  Of course not.  But none are safe.  

 

Scary that annually we're in this spot, staring down 50% turnover... jesus christ... Our GM'ing/drafting has been far harder on me, than our in-season records. 

Some thoughts:

• If we wind up with a new coach, i could see Bell been kept depending OC 's system/expectations and stuff. 
• I would keep those two OGs.. reasonable money for expected stability. That would be bizarre to cut both.
• There'll be SOME carry over in our secondary; a longer contract for Poole maybe, Wilson on cheap 2-3 year deal, etc. 
• I'm mildly optimistic that Maye will be extended/resigned for moderate money. He'll be playing a more natural SS role i presume and will hopefully an impact player. 
• don't sleep on JFM! 

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Scary that annually we're in this spot, staring down 50% turnover... jesus christ... Our GM'ing/drafting has been far harder on me, than our in-season records. 

Some thoughts:

• If we wind up with a new coach, i could see Bell been kept depending OC 's system/expectations and stuff. 
• I would keep those two OGs.. reasonable money for expected stability. That would be bizarre to cut both.
• There'll be SOME carry over in our secondary; a longer contract for Poole maybe, Wilson on cheap 2-3 year deal, etc. 
• I'm mildly optimistic that Maye will be extended/resigned for moderate money. He'll be playing a more natural SS role i presume and will hopefully an impact player. 
• don't sleep on JFM! 

 

Agree with most of this.  I would keep both G's as well unless we find a significant upgrade in that particular offseason.  I'd let Lewis go and keep Van Roten in that instance.  

I think McDougald will prove to be the superior player to Maye in 2020 but his age is obviously a factor there.  McDougald will turn 30 this fall.  At least one will be kept, I have to imagine.  

Bell should only return if there's a restructure to his deal.  There's absolutely no reason to devote $13.5M to the cap to Bell next offseason when we can just cut him and save either $9.5M or $11.5M (this depends on whether he's cut before or after June 1).  Either restructure or cut and re-sign.  Keeping him around on his current deal beyond 2020 is not something we should even entertain.  

[JohnnyLV]

Douglas has stated he will look to do in season extensions like he did fr Griffin next year. I just feel he has it completely under control.

[Paradis]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Agree with most of this.  I would keep both G's as well unless we find a significant upgrade in that particular offseason.  I'd let Lewis go and keep Van Roten in that instance.  

I think McDougald will prove to be the superior player to Maye in 2020 but his age is obviously a factor there.  McDougald will turn 30 this fall.  At least one will be kept, I have to imagine.  

Bell should only return if there's a restructure to his deal.  There's absolutely no reason to devote $13.5M to the cap to Bell next offseason when we can just cut him and save either $9.5M or $11.5M (this depends on whether he's cut before or after June 1).  Either restructure or cut and re-sign.  Keeping him around on his current deal beyond 2020 is not something we should even entertain.  

We should have never signed Bell to begin with. 

But yea, i agree. I'm just musing that his production/popularity could be a factor in a new coaching staff's decision... I mean, if you're a fan of fantasy, then maybe one would believe in Bell balling out this year and making himself indispensable. 

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, Paradis said:

We should have never signed Bell to begin with. 

But yea, i agree. I'm just musing that his production/popularity could be a factor in a new coaching staff's decision... I mean, if you're a fan of fantasy, then maybe one would believe in Bell balling out this year and making himself indispensable. 

 

At the very least, for the fantasy players, there has to be some positive regression with Touchdowns for Bell next season.  311 total touches and just 4 total TDs last year?  That's absurd and some simple bad luck mixed with poor play by both Bell and the OL. 

A better OL plus "regression to the mean" suggests Bell will about double that TD total next season, assuming he gets a similar amount of touches in 2020.