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2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i was very interested in the outcome of Sweden as a scientist ( that's what pays the bills, i am a lab scientist)

they didnt do very well..

i posted the per/100k worse than the our whole USA ( not than NYC) 

Tho I am from long island i havent lived in NY state since...2001....

The fact that cases are spiking in Florida and Texas and such does have a lot to do with non compliance...  

what can you do? people are stubborn and proud and sometimes stupid. ( i would know, since i am also a people)

This is exactly it. All you have to do is spend time on a Florida highway to know that people there. Don't. Give. A. sh*t.

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What in the world is going on over there? Sport all over Europe pretty much went off without a hitch - most soccer leagues have just finished up. Just copy the Germans. Always copy the Germa

no one could have predicted this....

Fitting that Derek Jeter would ruin all of sports and, by extension, America.

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1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Hospital capacity numbers as well. In NYC, 1.2 percent of tests are coming back positive. About 25k are being tested every day or so. 

In FL, it's like 20 percent or something, the last I saw. 

Understood, but doesn’t timing play a part? NY majority being hit earlier while there was little testing. How much testing is for antibodies vs? Example my in law tested positive in March is now negative. This part I’m confused on.. 

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4 minutes ago, HessStation said:

The victory laps have been going on in all NE states too, which has been my major issue. There were no victories here. Stop shaming different states that are trying to work it out on different time lines and approaches as there’s no text book winning one size fits all approach. 
 

hence why I brought up Sweden as reference...and not as net greater or less than, but to show there has been no perfect solutions here. Grandstanding politicians on both sides however 

In the beginning there were some big mistakes no doubt. I would say the current landscape is somewhat of a victory. It's not a time to claim victory and get complacent though. Keep opening up in a smart way and hopefully the numbers stay down until a real therapeutic or vaccine become available

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2 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Understood, but doesn’t timing play a part? NY majority being hit earlier while there was little testing. How much testing is for antibodies vs? Example my in law tested positive in March is now negative. This part I’m confused on.. 

The tests have false negatives and aren't 100% reliable

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6 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Understood, but doesn’t timing play a part? NY majority being hit earlier while there was little testing. How much testing is for antibodies vs? Example my in law tested positive in March is now negative. This part I’m confused on.. 

Well, that's the troubling thing. The antibodies for this disease don't seem to last very long, a few months or so.

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13 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i was very interested in the outcome of Sweden as a scientist ( that's what pays the bills, i am a lab scientist)

they didnt do very well..

i posted the per/100k worse than the our whole USA ( not than NYC) 

Tho I am from long island i havent lived in NY state since...2001....

The fact that cases are spiking in Florida and Texas and such does have a lot to do with non compliance...  

what can you do? people are stubborn and proud and sometimes stupid. ( i would know, since i am also a people)

Understood but as a scientist, is it fair to compare a 10MM pop 170k sq miles to 350MM pop 4MM sq miles.

 

its why I compared Sweden to NY state/City. Never perfect metric but closer than to whole country to country, no? Although NY density a lot higher 20MM pop 60k sq miles

 

never meant to say Sweden did well, but comparably speaking faired no worse more my point 

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8 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

The tests have false negatives and aren't 100% reliable

Reliability of tests is a whole other concerning issue. As of now, aren’t mortality rates substantially going down? Should there really be a concern for under 55 without a preexisting condition?

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3 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The NE states were greatly impacted by planeloads of US citizens coming in from Italy, Spain and all of Europe when we decided to close our borders.  These people were coming in from areas in Europe that were highly infected with the most virulent strain of the disease.  You couple that with a dense population and mass public transportation and the pandemic was on them.  Everything after that point was fire fighting a rampaging forest fire.  At the time we couldn't even get masks for our hospital workers let alone the general public.  

The Federal government failed NY and the New England states.  Florida, Texas and where I live in AZ have been ravaged simply because we didn't wear masks that were actually available and decided to go drinking and get laid.  Not that drinking and getting laid isn't important.  

 

I would be more inclined to hit the panic button If the death rates were on par with the cases I guess. All fair points though. 

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3 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Understood but as a scientist, is it fair to compare a 10MM pop 170k sq miles to 350MM pop 4MM sq miles.

 

its why I compared Sweden to NY state/City. Never perfect metric but closer than to whole country to country, no? Although NY density a lot higher 20MM pop 60k sq miles

 

never meant to say Sweden did well, but comparably speaking faired no worse more my point 

Why stretch to compare Sweden to the US at all, why not compare right against their neighboring countries. Sweden gets mentioned because it was the only country that a certain media outlet pointed to as "doing it the right way", they were used as an example of what the US should have been like. 

Well the numbers are out and they had way more deaths/capita and infections than their neighboring nordic countries. They did all that to protect their economy and their economy suffered the same losses as their nordic neighbors.

Put it this way, if their economy grew, or even declined much less than their neighbors, you could actually take the difference and divide it by the increase in death and calculate exactly how much 1 death benefited Sweden in actual dollars. The sad part is since they suffered the same economic decline, those deaths actually amount to $0 saved. Those deaths were literally worthless. 

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30 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

So i'm thinking that makes Desantis a murderer as well? There are plenty of deaths happening in Florida right now that are a direct result of his screw ups in response to the pandemic

Ok, ok, you guys are the smartest & bestest folks in the country. We get it New Yorkers, Jerseyites are da bomb. No one was hoarding products & the sharing & helping each other out at the peak of the Pandemic was mind blowing. 

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2 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

Why stretch to compare Sweden to the US at all, why not compare right against their neighboring countries. Sweden gets mentioned because it was the only country that a certain media outlet pointed to as "doing it the right way", they were used as an example of what the US should have been like. 

Well the numbers are out and they had way more deaths/capita and infections than their neighboring nordic countries. They did all that to protect their economy and their economy suffered the same losses as their nordic neighbors.

Put it this way, if their economy grew, or even declined much less than their neighbors, you could actually take the difference and divide it by the increase in death and calculate exactly how much 1 death benefited Sweden in actual dollars. The sad part is since they suffered the same economic decline, those deaths actually amount to $0 saved. Those deaths were literally worthless. 

I don’t think it’s a stretch and Sweden is the only anomaly of a country who took a slightly different approach and this the only basis to contrast with. 
 

again, European countries are like US states or regions. Same reason why not compare Metro New York to Mid Atlantic, Rust Belt or North New England 

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10 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Makes no sense that only 1% are positive. Why are you going to get a covid test if there is a 99% chance that you don’t have it ? 

Are you injecting bleach?

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5 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Ok, ok, you guys are the smartest & bestest folks in the country. We get it New Yorkers, Jerseyites are da bomb. No one was hoarding products & the sharing & helping each other out at the peak of the Pandemic was mind blowing. 

Are you sharing needles with Nico?

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11 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

All of the Phillies players so far have tested negative 

 

looks like baseball will weather this

Best practice to date suggests patients can be negative for up to 12 days from the time of exposure and still become sick and contagious.  In fact, you can be contagious before you are symptomatic.  That is why most states and the CDC mandate a 14-day quarantine.  So if the Phillies were exposed a few days ago, they are not out of the woods yet.

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1 hour ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is exactly it. All you have to do is spend time on a Florida highway to know that people there. Don't. Give. A. sh*t.

And people in NY and NJ do? Doubt that. 

Here's what made the mess in NY. So bad Cuomo had the state health Dept. delete the order from it's website.

By Joan Grallajoan.gralla@newsday.com  @JoanGrallaUpdated March 29, 2020 3:59 PMPRINT SHARE 

New York State's nursing homes cannot reject newly released hospital patients solely because they tested positive for the novel coronavirus, a new state directive says.

The order raised concern in an industry whose elderly and frail residents have the lowest survival rate for the disease. 

The state health department issued the new directive, which the nursing home industry says is a first, late Wednesday. "No resident shall be denied readmission or admission to the [nursing home] solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19,” the directive reads.

Hospitals are under pressure to discharge patients, including ones stricken with the coronavirus but who don't need ventilators, to open up beds for what Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo says will be a surge of thousands more cases in the next two to four weeks. However, nursing homes, whose workforce is struggling with problems like those in hospitals — arranging child care and managing a shortage of supplies like protective garb — fear their facilities will be overwhelmed.

 

The location of outbreaks in nursing homes mirror those seen in the state as a whole, officials said, with cases concentrated on Long Island, in New York City and in Westchester.

Stephen Hanse, CEO of the New York State Health Facilities Association, a trade group, said the new policy appeared to be precautionary. "At the same time, it does raise significant concerns for nursing homes that don't have coronavirus-positive residents or are at capacity," Hanse said.

He also noted there are hospitals around the state that still have extra rooms and questioned why patients still fighting the virus would be sent to nursing homes housing the most vulnerable.

"We have the hindsight of Kirkland," he said, referring to the Washington State nursing home where nearly three dozen have died.

J

 

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11 minutes ago, Bugg said:

And people in NY and NJ do? Doubt that. 

Here's what made the mess in NY. So bad Cuomo had the state health Dept. delete the order from it's website.

By Joan Grallajoan.gralla@newsday.com  @JoanGrallaUpdated March 29, 2020 3:59 PMPRINT SHARE 

New York State's nursing homes cannot reject newly released hospital patients solely because they tested positive for the novel coronavirus, a new state directive says.

The order raised concern in an industry whose elderly and frail residents have the lowest survival rate for the disease. 

The state health department issued the new directive, which the nursing home industry says is a first, late Wednesday. "No resident shall be denied readmission or admission to the [nursing home] solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19,” the directive reads.

Hospitals are under pressure to discharge patients, including ones stricken with the coronavirus but who don't need ventilators, to open up beds for what Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo says will be a surge of thousands more cases in the next two to four weeks. However, nursing homes, whose workforce is struggling with problems like those in hospitals — arranging child care and managing a shortage of supplies like protective garb — fear their facilities will be overwhelmed.

 

The location of outbreaks in nursing homes mirror those seen in the state as a whole, officials said, with cases concentrated on Long Island, in New York City and in Westchester.

Stephen Hanse, CEO of the New York State Health Facilities Association, a trade group, said the new policy appeared to be precautionary. "At the same time, it does raise significant concerns for nursing homes that don't have coronavirus-positive residents or are at capacity," Hanse said.

He also noted there are hospitals around the state that still have extra rooms and questioned why patients still fighting the virus would be sent to nursing homes housing the most vulnerable.

"We have the hindsight of Kirkland," he said, referring to the Washington State nursing home where nearly three dozen have died.

J

 

They do. Maybe you ain't been around the old neighborhood for a while, Tony, but yeah they do.

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12 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

They do. Maybe you ain't been around the old neighborhood for a while, Tony, but yeah they do.

I never left. No, they don't any more than anyone else. 

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Just now, Bugg said:

I never left. No, they don't any more than anyone else. 

Depends. Drivers here do suck. There are no rules. Driving in the city was insane too though and no better.

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25 minutes ago, Bugg said:

I never left. No, they don't any more than anyone else. 

Yeah, they do, actually. I don't know what you're seeing, but I've lived in both places. And I can assure you that you are wrong.

You can't even get these people to wear masks. 

They drive like they're at Daytona, which is why they and other states that are anti mask, are among the leaders in traffic fatalities per capita. They drive like idiots. 

My brother lived there for five years, just moved back, my cousin, twenty. They both say the same thing, they don't give a **** and they are morons.

 

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2 hours ago, Losmeister said:

i was very interested in the outcome of Sweden as a scientist ( that's what pays the bills, i am a lab scientist)

they didnt do very well..

i posted the per/100k worse than the our whole USA ( not than NYC) 

Tho I am from long island i havent lived in NY state since...2001....

The fact that cases are spiking in Florida and Texas and such does have a lot to do with non compliance...  

what can you do? people are stubborn and proud and sometimes stupid. ( i would know, since i am also a people)

Sweden is paying long ball choosing to take a sustainable approach. Now they have completely flattened the curve and did it with less death than NY/NJ. You have to judge Sweden vs neighbors in 6 to 12 months as they were always going for the herd immunity plan, meaning the expected initial high numbers.

NYC is showing 25%+ anitbody rates, some people think that is enough for effective enough herd immunity to limit R naught to prevent rapid exponential spread

Evidence would be clear upticks post protest everywhere but NY / north NJ. Major difference is both of those areas were absolutely devastated previously. You are talking probably 3M+ infections by the end of April in NYC an commuter base

Plus some stuides and experts coming out are saying the same

(plus it's kinda self evident that any significant level of immunity would slow this down)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

 

image.png.8f0820cb8e43cb72678ae7d4ac3a6b42.png

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10 minutes ago, GreekJet said:

The thing that could shut sports down for the year is if one of these infected athletes gets really sick. I think that’s all it would take for the players/owners to trash it. 

A Red Sox pitcher who got it now has inflammation of the heart. How is that not really sick?

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17 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Yes, but in New York in March it was different and five months later with all the advance warning it’s just bad luck

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10 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm a NY'er but this whole "NY does it right" thing is an absolute joke.  Cuomo belongs in jail.

 I know it’s hard to pass up the current shiny object in the news cycle for people but this is what I’m following along with without passing final judgment until it’s said and done...
 

 

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16 minutes ago, GreekJet said:

The thing that could shut sports down for the year is if one of these infected athletes gets really sick. I think that’s all it would take for the players/owners to trash it. 

A coach or equipment guy is going to die and that’ll be the end of the charade.

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2 hours ago, CTM said:

Sweden is paying long ball choosing to take a sustainable approach. Now they have completely flattened the curve and did it with less death than NY/NJ. You have to judge Sweden vs neighbors in 6 to 12 months as they were always going for the herd immunity plan, meaning the expected initial high numbers.

NYC is showing 25%+ anitbody rates, some people think that is enough for effective enough herd immunity to limit R naught to prevent rapid exponential spread

Evidence would be clear upticks post protest everywhere but NY / north NJ. Major difference is both of those areas were absolutely devastated previously. You are talking probably 3M+ infections by the end of April in NYC an commuter base

Plus some stuides and experts coming out are saying the same

(plus it's kinda self evident that any significant level of immunity would slow this down)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

 

image.png.8f0820cb8e43cb72678ae7d4ac3a6b42.png

This goes totally against conventional medial experience.  Herd immunity almost always requires >50% immunity to be effective.  

This note from Johns Hopkins suggest 50-90% is required normally and at least 70% for COVID-19.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/30/herd-immunity-covid-19-coronavirus/

Quote

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won't get sick, and thus won't spread the disease any further. In this way, the spread of infectious diseases can be kept under control. Depending on how contagious an infection is, typically 50% to 90% of a population must be immune to achieve herd immunity, according to Gypsyamber D'Souza and David Dowdy, infectious disease experts at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Based on early estimates of this virus's infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection. 

 

This one from the Mayo Clinic points out that 94% is needed for Measles Herd Immunity and reinforces that 70% is estimated for COVID-19.

 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Quote

What percentage of a community needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity? It varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread. For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic.


Just because one person in Glasgow has a theory that the number should be lower doesn't make it true.  I would certainly not gamble on it at this point in time.  I would put my trust in the to medical institutions that have been studying epidemiology and virology for the past few decades.  

 

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15 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Setting themselves up for a humungous self-own from a public relations standpoint. 

I just don’t see how it works, id think the more employees needed per sport...mlb can’t even do it Nevermind the size and scope an NFL team brings. NBA seems like the best shot based only needing 8 guys and somebody to stand on the sideline w a suit on

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3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Setting themselves up for a humungous self-own from a public relations standpoint. 

Harsh reality is if you don't play some games, especially playoff games,  you can never get the TV revenue back. There's no way to ever recoup that money.

I don't understand how the NBA and NHL sensibly both thought a bubble cut down some risk, and MLB did not do that. The NFL still can. The bubble doesn't eliminate risk but if think about it, it has to cut out some element of risk by limiting travel. And for all these sports if there's no fans where you physically play doesn't matter as much as people not getting sick. 

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3 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Harsh reality is if you don't play some games, especially playoff games,  you can never get the TV revenue back. There's no way to ever recoup that money.

I don't understand how the NBA and NHL sensibly both thought a bubble cut down some risk, and MLB did not do that. The NFL still can. The bubble doesn't eliminate risk but if think about it, it has to cut out some element of risk by limiting travel. And for all these sports if there's no fans where you physically play doesn't matter as much as people not getting sick. 

I think the whole thing is showing how utterly useless and ridiculous pro sports really is. 

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