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Jetsfan80

Jets projected ceiling/floor - NFL.com

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Video (3 minutes long) in link.  

They have our floor at 4-12, ceiling at 8-8, predicted record 6-10. 

The catalyst toward hitting our ceiling, to them, would be a bounceback year out of Bell and another strong performance in the Pass D department (which they accurately note was "sneaky good" last year - 12th in opp. QB rating).  

Sounds about right.

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/jets-season-preview-projecting-floor-ceiling-for-2020-record

Jets season preview: Projecting floor, ceiling for 2020 record

Get a fast paced look at the Jets off-season moves and see what they might mean in terms of wins and losses in 2020.

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We are greatly improved from last years the Patriots much weaker, and they predict 1 less victory than last year. All these predictions do is rile people up

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16 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Greg williams with no corners, no pass rushers, ilbs injured and one safety who is a foot from the line of scrimmage 75% of the time. 12th in ops QBR, 2nd vs the run

Adam Gase:  31st running offense 29th passing offense, 32nd total offense.

Um, maybe you didn't hear, but Tom Compton missed week 17, soooo...

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Darnold misses 4 weeks with Covid

Bell misses 4 week with covid

Jets 4-12

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There will be a lot of meritocracy this year again under Gregg Williams.  That's a good thing.  I don't think Jamal Adams leaves a hole in the D as much as he leaves an opportunity.  Guys with big potential upside this year on D... Quinnen in Year 2 (looks to be in great shape), Maye (out from under Jamal's shadow and in a contract year), Bless Austin (Year 2 and flashed talent last year, maybe out of Williams' dog house), and rookie Zuniga (team starving for a pass rush and this guy can bend the edge).

9-7

Let's go!

 

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It’s the same team as last year 

- Adams 

- Anderson 

- Beachum 

- Winters 

+ Healthy Darnold 

+ Becton

+ Perriman 

+ Mims

+ Herndon 

+ McGovern 

+ Van Roten

+ Fant 

+ Williamson 

+ Davis

+ Zuniga 

+ year 2 Q

Did I miss anything?

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2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Compare the schedules from last year to this year. We could easily be better and win fewer games.

Maybe, you have to count the 3 mono games as us playing the 85 bears

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2 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Maybe, you have to count the 3 mono games as us playing the 85 bears

The only one of the three mono games I think we would have had a decent shot of winning was the Browns game. I don't think we would have beaten the Pats or Ealges on the road, Darnold or no Darnold.

Really, I think the bigger hope is simply that Darnold was never truly 100% last season and the combination of being fully healthy and having a better line (plus another year in the offense) allows him to just take a huge leap. The true "best case scenario" for the Jets in 2020 involves Darnold just playing much better and more consistently than he previously has.

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6 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Compare the schedules from last year to this year. We could easily be better and win fewer games.

Good point. But I do think that having a bunch of returning players in year two of the system as well as the coaching staff, I have higher expectations this year. That is of course if we actually get to play football this year-

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Hard to argue. I agree- if there is a season finishing any better than 8-8. I think 6-10 is far more likely. 
 
I don’t see 4-12- think Darnold will improve enough to avoid that.

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30 minutes ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

Good point. But I do think that having a bunch of returning players in year two of the system as well as the coaching staff, I have higher expectations this year. That is of course if we actually get to play football this year-

For me it's less about the quality of opponents are more about the travel. We had a ridiculously low amount of travel last year -- I'm not sure we ever left the eastern time zone -- and we have three west coast games this year. It just doesn't bode well.

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1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Compare the schedules from last year to this year. We could easily be better and win fewer games.

That's overrated. There was a graphic that there is little correlation to tougher schedules actually being tougher by the end of the year. But I think we will be MUCH better. Had Darnold not been sick last year we might make the playoffs. I mean OL-MUCH BETTER-TE-BETTER-WR-MUCH BETTER QB BETTER, 2ND YEAR IN SYSYTEM, DL, BETTER DUE TO EXPERIENCE LB BETTER OLB POSSSIBLY BETTER CORNER MUCH BETTER SAFETY SLIGHT WORSE TO POSSIBLY BETTER DEPENDING ON DAVIS

 

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

That's overrated. There was a graphic that there is little correlation to tougher schedules actually being tougher by the end of the year. 

There's certainly correlation when it comes to travel, as UntouchableCrew points out:

 

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

For me it's less about the quality of opponents are more about the travel. We had a ridiculously low amount of travel last year -- I'm not sure we ever left the eastern time zone -- and we have three west coast games this year. It just doesn't bode well.

 

West coast trips don't pan out well for the Jets (or anyone), historically.  

Meanwhile, while we don't know how tough the schedule will be in 2020 with certainty, we DO know the Jets had the easiest schedule in the NFL last season, statistically.  So those who continue to press the point that going 7-9 was impressive last season need to factor the low schedule strength into the equation when evaluating how good the team was last year and when projecting future performance.

We faced Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Pittsburgh's 3rd-string QB and Buffalo's 2nd string offense last season.  That was 25 % of the schedule right there.  PLUS Dallas was heavily injured the week we faced them.  Do you expect the schedule to get any easier than that?  Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, Lock, Goff, Rivers....there's a lot of tough QB's on the schedule in '20.  We face not 1 but both Super Bowl participants from last season.

Those who think this is a playoff team are going to be sorely disappointed.  This is still a bottom 5 roster, and our top 3 draft picks from the 2020 class (Becton, Mims, Davis) all play positions that will require time to develop.

2021 will be the Jets' time.  Not 2020.

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51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

There's certainly correlation when it comes to travel, as UntouchableCrew points out:

 

 

West coast trips don't pan out well for the Jets (or anyone), historically.  

Meanwhile, while we don't know how tough the schedule will be in 2020 with certainty, we DO know the Jets had the easiest schedule in the NFL last season, statistically.  So those who continue to press the point that going 7-9 was impressive last season need to factor the low schedule strength into the equation when evaluating how good the team was last year and when projecting future performance.

We faced Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Pittsburgh's 3rd-string QB and Buffalo's 2nd string offense last season.  That was 25 % of the schedule right there.  PLUS Dallas was heavily injured the week we faced them.  Do you expect the schedule to get any easier than that?  Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, Lock, Goff, Rivers....there's a lot of tough QB's on the schedule in '20.  We face not 1 but both Super Bowl participants from last season.

Those who think this is a playoff team are going to be sorely disappointed.  This is still a bottom 5 roster, and our top 3 draft picks from the 2020 class (Becton, Mims, Davis) all play positions that will require time to develop.

2021 will be the Jets' time.  Not 2020.

It is NOT a bottom 5 roster but believe whatever you wan

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56 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

There's certainly correlation when it comes to travel, as UntouchableCrew points out:

 

 

West coast trips don't pan out well for the Jets (or anyone), historically.  

Meanwhile, while we don't know how tough the schedule will be in 2020 with certainty, we DO know the Jets had the easiest schedule in the NFL last season, statistically.  So those who continue to press the point that going 7-9 was impressive last season need to factor the low schedule strength into the equation when evaluating how good the team was last year and when projecting future performance.

We faced Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Pittsburgh's 3rd-string QB and Buffalo's 2nd string offense last season.  That was 25 % of the schedule right there.  PLUS Dallas was heavily injured the week we faced them.  Do you expect the schedule to get any easier than that?  Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, Lock, Goff, Rivers....there's a lot of tough QB's on the schedule in '20.  We face not 1 but both Super Bowl participants from last season.

Those who think this is a playoff team are going to be sorely disappointed.  This is still a bottom 5 roster, and our top 3 draft picks from the 2020 class (Becton, Mims, Davis) all play positions that will require time to develop.

2021 will be the Jets' time.  Not 2020.

Wow.  Great post. 

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58 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

It is NOT a bottom 5 roster but believe whatever you wan

Name 5 rosters worse. Matter of fact, name 1 player on the Jet roster who is in the 90th percentile at their position

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

It is NOT a bottom 5 roster but believe whatever you wan

Find 5+ teams with weaker rosters, please.  I will then demonstrate how you are wrong.

We just had to replace the entire Offensive Line.  All 5 starting spots.  That's almost unheard of.

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55 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

Name 5 rosters worse. Matter of fact, name 1 player on the Jet roster who is in the 90th percentile at their position

Yep.  We can't even name who our best player is.  Nearly every other franchise has 1-2 names you can throw out there with ease.  

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

They have our floor at 4-12, ceiling at 8-8, predicted record 6-10

20200803_210924.jpg.8822aeec6d374e3711c801a5e325a75f.jpg

6-10, not too shabby! Lol

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4 minutes ago, Prodigal Syndicate said:

I'm expecting 4-6 wins.

With another horrendous offense and hope that's enough for gase to be fired.

If the offense is horrendous, I think Douglas would be more inclined, or at least equally inclined, to try to move on from Darnold than Gase.  He didn't draft Darnold, after all.

No one should be hoping for that.

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The floor is 4 cases of covid and the ceiling is 19 cases with a dead assistant coach.

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The Jets and the Mets to be are very similar year and year out. You can talk yourself into thinking they will be good if a bunch of different things go right, but how often does that happen?

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Find 5+ teams with weaker rosters, please.  I will then demonstrate how you are wrong.

We just had to replace the entire Offensive Line.  All 5 starting spots.  That's almost unheard of.

But we did replace the OL and it is upgraded at every single position.

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  We can't even name who our best player is.  Nearly every other franchise has 1-2 names you can throw out there with ease.  

And this is why you will never see how strong the Jets roster is. You think in terms of "stars" when in reality football is one by having depth. The Jets are pretty deep now. Plus we are Top 3 in special teams which really overcomes a lot of issues. People REALLY understimate the effect of special teams on games. You continue believing that stars make rosters and watch how we outperform expectations this year and become dominant in the next 2 years.

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And this is why you will never see how strong the Jets roster is. You think in terms of "stars" when in reality football is one by having depth. The Jets are pretty deep now. Plus we are Top 3 in special teams which really overcomes a lot of issues. People REALLY understimate the effect of special teams on games. You continue believing that stars make rosters and watch how we outperform expectations this year and become dominant in the next 2 years.

  You only think it’s deep because the Jets have players with names and those are names you know and think are good.

 

Just about every team out there has depth that everyone else doesn’t know about. Depth is nice but you need top-end talent more. You need EDGE Rushers, CBs, a great starting OL and a solid WR or 2 to support a high end QB. We basically have none of that. I expect Becton and Mims to work out, but that will take time.

 

So, once again I’ll ask, name me 5 rosters that are worse than ours.

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3 hours ago, GreekJet said:

The Jets and the Mets to be are very similar year and year out. You can talk yourself into thinking they will be good if a bunch of different things go right, but how often does that happen?

i worked on someones post...one that went... if this and this and this...et cet....happens

i randomly assigned 65% probability to each of the stipulations and worked out the sum probability of what the  OP proposed.

1.3%

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10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If the offense is horrendous, I think Douglas would be more inclined, or at least equally inclined, to try to move on from Darnold than Gase.  He didn't draft Darnold, after all.

No one should be hoping for that.

Are you forgetting the site you are on? There are people on here who say novenas every day for stuff like this to happen.

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This season is an anomaly, no one knows how it will go. Our division isn't that good, in fact, the entire NFL isn't that good anymore. 

Most games are decided by turnovers, so if Sam Darnold turns the corner & quicklygets comfortable with all his new toys who knows? 

His statistics last year & his successful games correlated exactly to the time he was afforded in the pocket. You can't run any offense with your QB running for his life. Perriman + Mims + Crowder + Herndon is a huge upgrade in size & strength than last year. Everything rides on the Oline cohesion early. If Darnold gets time, Bell, Gore & Perrine can find holes, this team can score on anyone. 

If we found a diamond in the rough with Cager at 6-5" for the Redzone, along with the return of Herndon that's Night & day from last year with Sam trying to pinpoint the smaller Crowder & the soft stick figure Anderson last year in the Redzone. 

A lot of Ifs but we've seen other teams have great drafts & turn the team around, why not us? I'll continue to believe JD had the best draft here since the Dbrick, Mangold draft. Unlike many fans here I think Sam Darnold will be a star with a good Oline & skill players around him. Look at the best QBs in the league & they all have go to WRs, or at least 1 star. 

Rogers has Adams, Watson had Hopkins, Dak has Cooper, Mahomes has Hill, Brees has Thomas. 

Plus Jet fans sh*t on Gase playcalling but bitch about how bad the Oline was? Or how many injuries we had? I always hear, Kyle Shanahan SETS up plays like playing chess, setting up his next move. How the hell can you set up plays if every other play has your QB running for his life, or RBs getting cut down 2/3 yards in the backfield putting you behind the sticks in down & distance? 

Hell, Shottenheimer looked decent when he had a top Oline, 2 good WRs & 2 good RBs, with a raw Sanchez in 2010. You look at the Oline that Carson Wentz played behind his 1st two years as a starter & then look at crap that Darnold started his career behind. 11 Oline changes last year, ELEVEN!!!

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