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Sam Darnold looking good in camp

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16 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

What did I do that makes you feel that way?

JohnnyD simply went to the exact tenth of a percent, whereas I went to the whole number.

His is technically more accurate but I find it rather trivial. The difference is 1/4th of a pass per game.

Slats simply did the math wrong overall. (Edit: wrong is a harsh word. Slats did the math differently than I ever intended it)

In short, the difference between Allen and Sam’s completion % is 10 completions (if you go to the whole number) and 14 completions (if you go to the tenth of a percent).

Either way, 14 completions (over an entire season) is hardly enough to claim that he is trash while labeling Sam significantly better. It’s just silly.

Im sorry that you think I’m a troll. I’m really not. I don’t even love Allen that much, I just found myself defending him when everyone is trashing him SO hard.

 

What if Darnold got 10 more completions and Allen got 10 less?  What if we ignored what our eyes actually told us and pretended the stats weren't what they were under completely different conditions?  

You've hammered an irrelevant stat that doesn't exist to death while telling us 300 yards is irrelevant.  Allen being an accurate QB doesn't pass the eye, touch, smell or taste test. 

All you have to do is watch Darnold play and Allen play NFL football.  Let your mind wrap around the different conditions the two of them play under because of personal and your 10 passes stat that you made up fails the smell test.  Which answers the question if someone farts in a post does it smell?  Yes it does.  

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17 hours ago, GreenCow said:

Where did you go to school? Jersey?

Allen's actual 2019 output

271/461 = 58.7%

Add 10 completions.

281/461 = 61%

If you went to private school, ask for your money back.

If you went public ... well, it makes sense.

PS, adding 40 passes would have made Allen's completion 67%.

 

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education/prek-12

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22 minutes ago, slats said:

If you can't come clean under this screen name, I'll be happy to remove it and welcome you back as an out-of-the-closet Bills fan under a new name. I'd much rather debate honestly. 

Also, I saw your post prior to the edit. I'd love to see your closet full of Jets gear. 

I can post pics when I get home. I just got a Mike White signed football that the NFL was auctioning. I have a mini helmet signed by Curtis Martin, though the marker is a little blurry. Another mini-helmet signed by Pepper Johnson. More signed training camp guides than I can count (from varies years). Most of the signatures in the training camp guides are by camp filler that didn’t make the team. Then a few jerseys and a lot of hats (none signed).

Edit: I’m also bidding on a Don Maynard football on the NFL auction site right now too.

If you want to ban me, or “remove” my username, I obviously can’t stop you. But you’re not going to get me to admit to something I’m not. I’m sorry you don’t believe me.

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Interesting how the debate is Sam vs Josh Allen

 

that Baker Mayfield guy uh ya what happened 

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26 minutes ago, Biggs said:

What if Darnold got 10 more completions and Allen got 10 less?  What if we ignored what our eyes actually told us and pretended the stats weren't what they were under completely different conditions?  

You've hammered an irrelevant stat that doesn't exist to death while telling us 300 yards is irrelevant.  Allen being an accurate QB doesn't pass the eye, touch, smell or taste test. 

All you have to do is watch Darnold play and Allen play NFL football.  Let your mind wrap around the different conditions the two of them play under because of personal and your 10 passes stat that you made up fails the smell test.  Which answers the question if someone farts in a post does it smell?  Yes it does.  

You’re misunderstanding.

Im not saying Allen would have or should have or could have gotten those 10 more completions.

Im simply saying the difference that separates their completion % is 10 passes. Or 14 if you go to the tenth of a percent.

Its like if Sam had 3,000 yards and Allen had 2,950. I would say the difference between them in yards is 50 yards.

Thats not me saying that Allen would have gotten those extra 50 yards. Or should have. Or could have.

Im simply saying 50 yards IS the difference.

Similary, 10 (or 14) completions is the difference between Sam and Allen.

Less than 1 per game.

So I find it silly for someone to say Allen is trash, because then what does that Say about Sam who is only 10 completions ahead of him?

PS, you also have said you haven’t watched much of Allen. So how can you say you trust your eyes? If you sign up under game pass, you can watch every game. I’m up to game 12.

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13 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Interesting how the debate is Sam vs Josh Allen

 

that Baker Mayfield guy uh ya what happened 

Baker is Fools gold.

Which is sad because I really thought he had something.

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1 minute ago, GreenCow said:

You’re misunderstanding.

Im not saying Allen would have or should have or could have gotten those 10 more completions.

Im simply saying the difference that separates their completion % is 10 passes. Or 14 if you go to the tenth of a percent.

Its like if Sam had 3,000 yards and Allen had 2,950. I would say the difference between them in yards is 50 yards.

Thats not me saying that Allen would have gotten those extra 50 yards. Or should have. Or could have.

Im simply saying 50 yards IS the difference.

Similary, 10 (or 14) completions is the difference between Sam and Allen.

Less than 1 per game.

So I find it silly for someone to say Allen is trash, because then what does that Say about Sam who is only 10 completions ahead of him?

PS, you also have said you haven’t watched much of him. So how can you say you trust your eyes? If you sign up under game pass, you can watch every game. I’m up to game 12.

I'm not doing anything right now, but this is just a super weird hill for a supposed Jet fan to die on. Your defense of this player is borderline irrational. Darnold arguably had a better year passing the football than Allen despite mono, questionable coaching, and a horrendous, injured supporting cast. 

Switch teams, and Allen is just about out of the league and Darnold's won a playoff game or three. 

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

I'm not doing anything right now, but this is just a super weird hill for a supposed Jet fan to die on. Your defense of this player is borderline irrational. Darnold arguably had a better year passing the football than Allen despite mono, questionable coaching, and a horrendous, injured supporting cast. 

Switch teams, and Allen is just about out of the league and Darnold's won a playoff game or three. 

I think this is WayneChrebet80 from last year.  Just switched his shtick from Daniel Jones to Josh Allen . 

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6 minutes ago, slats said:

I'm not doing anything right now, but this is just a super weird hill for a supposed Jet fan to die on. Your defense of this player is borderline irrational. Darnold arguably had a better year passing the football than Allen despite mono, questionable coaching, and a horrendous, injured supporting cast. 

Switch teams, and Allen is just about out of the league and Darnold's won a playoff game or three. 

Maybe true.

Guess we’ll see. Season is only a month away. I’m excited!

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I feel like this is obvious, but apparently it needs to be stated.  Accuracy and completion percentage are two completely different concepts.

Accuracy is all about ball placement.  The quarterback puts the ball in an ideal location where only the receiver can catch it and make the most of the completion.  Some examples of accuracy would be hitting a reciever in stride, placing a ball on the back shoulder for a fade, or placing a ball low for a receiver running over the middle to reduce exposure to a big hit.  This is a very tough metric to capture and relies on the eye test and discretion of the observer.

Completion percentage is a catch rate metric.  It can be largely influenced by offensive system, quality of receivers, quality of offensive line suppressing a pass rush, and of course, quarterback accuracy.  Inaccurate passes can end up as completions, and accurate passes can end up as incompletions.  It should also be noted that historically speaking a difference of 3-4% completion percentage over a career or multiple seasons is quite a big difference.

Bottom line, using completion percentage as a comprehensive indicator of accuracy is misguided.  Using adjustments to completion percentage to compare the accuracy of two different quarterbacks is just plain silly.

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9 hours ago, GreenCow said:

I understand. You’re breaking it down into the tenths of a percent, whereas I simply went to the whole number.

If you want the extra 0.9%, then you can have it.

I think most people would find it trivial but you can throw in the extra 4 passes. It doesn’t really change the point.

Here’s the point:

If we want to label Allen as trash, then we must also accept that Sam is not far behind, as the difference is only 14 completions.

Less than 1 per game.

Sam is less than 1 completion per game away from a “trash” inaccurate QB.

I’m not sure why you would attempt to use career stats when the rookie season is a clear outlier. Imagine projecting Peyton Manning’s career INT’s based on his awful rookie season. He would have shattered records.

If you still don’t understand what I’m saying, that’s ok. We can agree to disagree.

 

 

If I believed that you were being honest and inadvertently forgot the ".9" I wouldn't have called you out.  However, it's pretty easy to look at any stat lines for Darnold and Allen and subtract 61.9% - 58.8% and see the difference is 3.1% (at least you would see it's more than 3%).  We are not talking calculus here.  When trying to compare two QB's I don't think that many people would start picking numbers to add to completions then divide by attempts (like you did) to see how many extra completions it would take to get to a certain percentage.  You could do it of course, but it would be trial and error and take you longer.  (Sorry to get all "mathy" here).

I have added their rookie years because as far a I know they count in the career stats assessment.  Every site I look at to compare stats they show both seasons.  It's not like 2018 didn't happen.  Why do you discount 2018?  Do you know that the 2018 is an outlier?  I am happy to count both the 2019 season and their career stats - which is how I responded.  

PS: I understand totally what you're saying.

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyD said:

 

If I believe that you were being honest and inadvertently forgot the ".9" I wouldn't have called you out.  However, it's pretty easy to look at any stat lines for Darnold and Allen and subtract 61.9% - 58.8% and see the difference is 3.1% (at least you would see it's more than 3%).  We are not talking calculus here.  When trying to compare two QB's I don't think that many people would start picking numbers to add to completions then divide by attempts (like you did) to see how many extra completions it would take to get to a certain percentage.  You could do it of course, but it would be trial and error and take you longer.  (Sorry to get all "mathy" here).

I have added their rookie years because as far a I know they count in the career stats assessment.  Every site I look at to compare stats they shows both seasons.  It's not like 2018 didn't happen.  Why do you discount 2018?  Do you know that the 2018 is an outlier?  I am happy to count both the 2019 season and their career stats - which is how I responded.  

PS: I understand totally what you're saying.

You're right in that I didn't inadvertently forget it.

I just think it's trivial.

It's 1/4th of 1 pass per game.

4 over a full season. 

It would fall within the margin of error in any study ever conducted.

To me, whether it's 14 or 10, the difference is so trivial that the point remains exactly the same. 

When someone calls Allen trash, that doesn't say much for Sam who is only 14 completions better over the course of an entire season.

Quote

I have added their rookie years because as far a I know they count in the career stats assessment.  Every site I look at to compare stats they shows both seasons.  It's not like 2018 didn't happen.  Why do you discount 2018?  Do you know that the 2018 is an outlier?  I am happy to count both the 2019 season and their career stats - which is how I responded. 

When analysts talk about a QB's skill at the current moment - any QB - they don't talk about what they did 2 years ago.

Especially if the season 2 years ago, was their rookie year.

When the graphic pops up on the screen during the game, it doesn't say "2 years ago, this player suckd". It shows last years stats.

The reason is simple. What have you done for me lately?

Flacco won a Super Bowl.

Several years later he was cut.

The team, and fans, don't stick with - But he won a Super Bowl! Were stuck on that year!

It's about the most recent accomplishments.

ESPECIALLY when the player you are evaluating significantly approved from one year to the next, to the point where averaging their rookie year mischaracterizes what they are currently doing.

This is an extreme example, but i'm simply using it to make a point. If a running back has 200 yards in his rookie season, and 1,700 yards in his second season, most people aren't going to average the seasons out and call them a 950 yard average rusher.

Why? Because their rookie season does not properly characterize the player at this point in time.

Allen didn't make that huge of a jump, but his 52% (?) throwing in his rookie season does not properly characterize the player that threw 59% in his second season.

The only reason one would average the two is to intentionally bring the average down to attempt to make the player look bad.

Quote

PS: I understand totally what you're saying.

I appreciate that, because sometimes I'm not sure people understand me :)

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4 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

What ever happened to nyjunc? That guy was great. Brilliant poster.

I'm confused both because this is a random comment for no reason, and also because it is completely false. 

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7 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

You're right in that I didn't inadvertently forget it.

I just think it's trivial.

It's 1/4th of 1 pass per game.

4 over a full season. 

It would fall within the margin of error in any study ever conducted.

To me, whether it's 14 or 10, the difference is so trivial that the point remains exactly the same. 

I have absolutely no doubt that if those 4 passes worked in Allen's favor, you'd be posting about "6 completions" 20 times in the thread instead of "10 completions". It's that important, if it works in your favor.

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You guys are awful.....

Whole bunch of threadkraping splitting hairs over how to do the math .... 

 

I love it 😂.

 

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On 8/9/2020 at 6:53 PM, GreenCow said:

Yes.

I think Allen is the better QB.

I realize why people hate on Allen, the accuracy thing is there and he’s a divisional foe.

But watch him play and the guy is a baller.

He can make throws that Darnold simply physically cant, guys will run through a brick wall for him, and I think his upside is much higher.

I think Darnolds ceiling is Pennington, which really is somewhat of a compliment because I liked Pennington.

Allens upside is a Hall of Famer. At the same time, he also has a floor of a guy whose out of the league in 5 years. But my gut feeling is that he’s a stud.

In short, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Allen is getting MVP love and was ranked in the top 100 while Darnold is getting zero mvp love and was not only not in the top 100 but didn’t even make the honorable mentions.

You can think Allen is better. You are way wrong but you can believe that.

But Darnold's upside is Pennington? Darnold's upside is Aaron Rodgers or even better His upside is best QB in the NFL.

He's better than Pennington right now. Pennington is maybe the most overrated QB ever.

He is WAY more skilled than Allen. Allen is a better runner definitely, but those QBs do not last. It has been shown over and over and over historically. Allen has a stronger arm

Darnold is more mobile in the pocket, has a faster release, is more accurate by a LOT, is WAY better passing on the run, fantastic at intermediate patterns.

His weakness last year was accuracy deep right, but his receivers also often stopped running which made it look like Darnold overthrew them.

Darnold's lack of dominant performance is all about OL and mono.

Darnold will be a franchise QB. Allen may have a couple more decent years but start to decline as the hits start to add up. Newton was a similar QB to Allen, yet people seem to ignore that he has not even remotely been an effective QB in 5 years and is rifddled with injuries

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

You guys are awful.....

Whole bunch of threadkraping splitting hairs over how to do the math .... 

 

I love it 😂.

 

I agree.

Were talking 0.9% difference.

Oh well.

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1 hour ago, Kolchak said:

I think this is WayneChrebet80 from last year.  Just switched his shtick from Daniel Jones to Josh Allen . 

If Jones can develop ball security he is miles better as a passer than Josh Allen.  

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19 hours ago, GreenCow said:

Where did you go to school? Jersey?

Allen's actual 2019 output

271/461 = 58.7%

Add 10 completions.

281/461 = 61%

If you went to private school, ask for your money back.

If you went public ... well, it makes sense.

PS, adding 40 passes would have made Allen's completion 67%.

 

images.png

You forgot to increase the denominator, pass attempts. Surely it would take Josh Allen another 17 to 18 pass attempts to get 10 more completions. 

281/478 = 58.786% 

Or we can play make believe and close our eyes and see Josh Allen as an accurate passer. 

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Never thought I'd miss preseason games and training camp as much as I do.... 

Going into the season blind is pretty anticlimactic especially considering how most of our seasons have gone.....

Supposed to build up hope in the preseason so they is something to rip back to reality those first few weeks.

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1 minute ago, Lurker89 said:

Never thought I'd miss preseason games and training camp as much as I do.... 

Going into the season blind is pretty anticlimactic especially considering how most of our seasons have gone.....

Supposed to build up hope in the preseason so they is something to rip back to reality those first few weeks.

Preseason is fools gold.

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Just now, johnnysd said:

You can think Allen is better. You are way wrong but you can believe that.

But Darnold's upside is Pennington? Darnold's upside is Aaron Rodgers or even better His upside is best QB in the NFL.

He is WAY more skilled than Allen. Allen is a better runner definitely, but those QBs do not last. It has been shown over and over and over historically. Allen has a stronger arm

His weakness last year was accuracy deep right, but his receivers also often stopped running which made it look like Darnold overthrew them.

Darnold's lack of dominant performance is all about OL and mono.

Darnold will be a franchise QB. Allen may have a couple more decent years but start to decline as the hits start to add up. Newton was a similar QB to Allen, yet people seem to ignore that he has not even remotely been an effective QB in 5 years and is rifddled with injuries

It's OK to agree to disagree.

Quote

He's better than Pennington right now. Pennington is maybe the most overrated QB ever.

I really liked Pennington. I personally do not agree that Sam is better than Pennington right now.

Quote

is more accurate by a LOT

He is 14 completions more accurate than Josh Allen.

Quote

has a faster release 

Just so you know, they tested this. The results were:

Josh Allen: 0.38 second release
Sam Darnold: 0.44 second release

Sam's release is actually a bit slower than Allen's.

Quote

better in the pocket

 

 

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The difference between Darnold and Allen's CMP % is enough that it would take Darnold missing 25 consecutive passes to put them even. That's quite a bit.

Also fun fact: Darnold was only 0.1% behind Rodgers, and 1% higher than Brady. 

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8 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

You forgot to increase the denominator, pass attempts. Surely it would take Josh Allen another 17 to 18 pass attempts to get 10 more completions. 

281/478 = 58.786% 

Or we can play make believe and close our eyes and see Josh Allen as an accurate passer. 

Someone else made the same mistake as you. It's already been talked about.

No one is saying if Josh threw 10 more passes, he would reach Darnold's %.

We are saying the difference between Allen and Darnold's completion % is 10 completions (not 10 more passes). *or 14 if you want to get to the exact tenths.

Its like if Sam had 3,000 yards and Allen had 2,950. I would say the difference between them in yards is 50 yards.

Thats not me saying that Allen would have gotten those extra 50 yards. Or should have. Or could have.

Im simply saying 50 yards IS the difference.

Similary, 10 (or 14) completions is the difference between Sam and Allen.

 

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6 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Never thought I'd miss preseason games and training camp as much as I do.... 

Going into the season blind is pretty anticlimactic especially considering how most of our seasons have gone.....

Supposed to build up hope in the preseason so they is something to rip back to reality those first few weeks.

Same here. 

I also miss the reporters being at TC and giving us updates.

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3 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

Preseason is fools gold.

It is .... And its the only gold we ever see 😜

The time of year where I say "oh hey maybe we are developing" then the first three weeks happen and I'm reminded:

wonder years despair GIF

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22 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I believe it works by calculating what percentage of your throws are in that area and then comes up with a grade by comparing it to other players percentages.  Basically, only 53% of Allen's throws are "on target/perfect" compared to Sam and Cousins, who throw a perfect ball 62% and 63.4% of the time, respectively, putting them in a higher tier.  

Imagine the day when Darnold might have just AVERAGE NFL talent on that OL?  Maybe the slightest semblance of a Running Game for the very first time?

Just a little more time.  Kid will be deadly.  But I guess that’s what JJ Watt saw in him at the end of his first year.  After virtually single handedly taking apart Houston’s close to top ranked D, with no pass protection (why did I bother writing that?  It’s the Norm) and throwing to Nobody WRs he gave the Jets the lead after putting the team on his shoulders only to have Bowles D blow the final drive and take a win notch off his belt.....Watt said right after the game....”you’re going to be a GREAT pro”.

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8 hours ago, GreenCow said:

Someone else made the same mistake as you. It's already been talked about.

No one is saying if Josh threw 10 more passes, he would reach Darnold's %.

We are saying the difference between Allen and Darnold's completion % is 10 completions (not 10 more passes). *or 14 if you want to get to the exact tenths.

Its like if Sam had 3,000 yards and Allen had 2,950. I would say the difference between them in yards is 50 yards.

Thats not me saying that Allen would have gotten those extra 50 yards. Or should have. Or could have.

Im simply saying 50 yards IS the difference.

Similary, 10 (or 14) completions is the difference between Sam and Allen.

 

The difference between Darnold and Allen has nothing to do with Numbers.

One, Darnold, can make ANY throw, ANYWHERE on the field at ANY speed.  The speed tailored to the route.  He is also Accurate.  He has shown that while playing with probably the weakest Offensive Unit in the NFL surrounding him over his first 26 games.

The other, Allen, can throw a ball farther than anyone in the NFL, has no idea where the pass thrown will wind up, and for as big as an arm that he does have has not hit many bombs for TDs or even put up many passing yards....which you’d expect?  No?

This guy is going to be a hindrance to the Bills for years down the line.  Until they finally give up on him.  The sad thing is is that it’s tough giving up on a guy who can throw a ball that far.  But at some point they will have to.

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8 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

Preseason is fools gold.

Rat/Clemens/Ainge baby!

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1 hour ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

The difference between Darnold and Allen has nothing to do with Numbers.

One, Darnold, can make ANY throw, ANYWHERE on the field at ANY speed.  The speed tailored to the route.  He is also Accurate.  He has shown that while playing with probably the weakest Offensive Unit in the NFL surrounding him over his first 26 games.

The other, Allen, can throw a ball farther than anyone in the NFL, has no idea where the pass thrown will wind up, and for as big as an arm that he does have has not hit many bombs for TDs or even put up many passing yards....which you’d expect?  No?

This guy is going to be a hindrance to the Bills for years down the line.  Until they finally give up on him.  The sad thing is is that it’s tough giving up on a guy who can throw a ball that far.  But at some point they will have to.

Definitely agree with the O-line comment.

The Bills O-line is better and it would probably make a few Jets fans sick to see how long Allen has in the pocket sometimes.

Like look at this crap...

 

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