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Sam Darnold looking good in camp

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On 8/10/2020 at 5:45 AM, GreenCow said:

I wasn’t talking about Penny’s arm. I never said Sam has a noodle arm. In fact I said earlier in the thread that the arm strength thing is overblown.

That being said, there are a couple throws I’ve seen Allen do on ESPN that there is no freaking way Sam is pulling off.

That’s not a nock on Sam. Outside of Mahomes maybe, I don’t think there is any QB that is pulling them off.

They were insanely tight window throws that if there was even 1% less power, it’s intercepted instead of completed.

Like this one? https://youtu.be/0WyBO8AQp0s

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Darnold and the Jets will go as far as the o-line take them.   We had an incompetent o-line last year.  That needs to change.

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10 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

The sad thing is is that it’s tough giving up on a guy who can throw a ball that far.  But at some point they will have to.

Josh Allen is a modern day Jeff George.

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On 8/9/2020 at 9:53 PM, GreenCow said:

Yes.

I think Allen is the better QB.

I realize why people hate on Allen, the accuracy thing is there and he’s a divisional foe.

But watch him play and the guy is a baller.

He can make throws that Darnold simply physically cant, guys will run through a brick wall for him, and I think his upside is much higher.

I think Darnolds ceiling is Pennington, which really is somewhat of a compliment because I liked Pennington.

Allens upside is a Hall of Famer. At the same time, he also has a floor of a guy whose out of the league in 5 years. But my gut feeling is that he’s a stud.

In short, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Allen is getting MVP love and was ranked in the top 100 while Darnold is getting zero mvp love and was not only not in the top 100 but didn’t even make the honorable mentions.

I loved Pennington. But I disagree. Darnold has the ( potential) and ceiling to be a tier above that. He now just has to prove it.

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2 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

Josh Allen is a modern day Jeff George.

huh?  Allen is a good kid regardless of your opinion of him as a player.  George was an attitude guy from day 1

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1 hour ago, Gibby said:

I loved Pennington. But I disagree. Darnold has the ( potential) and ceiling to be a tier above that. He now just has to prove it.

Sam can make all the throws.  Pennington couldn’t. 

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3 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

I haven't a clue what that means. Looks like a cipher. Lol

I guess you weren’t on JI in 2008.  That was the site motto after Favre injured his arm and before Tanny traded for Sanchez

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1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said:

Josh Allen is a modern day Jeff George.

I think Jeff George was actually better and the comparison isn’t even that close.

Allen has a big arm, probably the strongest in the NFL, yet it doesn’t even translate to long TD bombs or even significant passing yards.  Why?  Because he is way too inaccurate and he throws at only one speed.

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17 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Sam can make all the throws.  Pennington couldn’t. 

Totally agree... that what kept Chad so limited. Had he had the big arm he could’ve been great- it was Belichick who started crowding the inside of the field forcing him to throw outside- once November and winds came around the Jets became very easy to defend against.

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19 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

huh?  Allen is a good kid regardless of your opinion of him as a player.  George was an attitude guy from day 1

I'm talking more about the strong arm and career completion percentage. Josh Allen is similar in that respect, but he has a better attitude for sure.

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6 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

I think Jeff George was actually better and the comparison isn’t even that close.

Allen has a big arm, probably the strongest in the NFL, yet it doesn’t even translate to long TD bombs or even significant passing yards.  Why?  Because he is way too inaccurate and he throws at only one speed.

I don’t think he has only 1 speed.

He just doesn’t use the other speeds too often 😂

I found this nice touch pass of his.

 

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OH

MY 

GOODNESS

Look at this video I just found.

Maybe THIS is why his completion % is so low. 

Thats WAY more than the 10 or 14 completions he would need to catch up to Darnolds completion percentage haha.

This is insane.

 

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4 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

I don’t think he has only 1 speed.

He just doesn’t use the other speeds too often 😂

I found this nice touch pass of his.

 

You’re trying way too hard to prop Allen up.  Relax.  It’s unfortunate that Buffalo is going to waste lots of talent before they finally cut the cord with this guy. But at least you have your HC locked to a 6 year contract.  I think very highly of him.  I wish he were the Jets HC. Allen is going to waste lots of his tenure also.

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5 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

I think Jeff George was actually better and the comparison isn’t even that close.

Allen has a big arm, probably the strongest in the NFL, yet it doesn’t even translate to long TD bombs or even significant passing yards.  Why?  Because he is way too inaccurate and he throws at only one speed.

Both have strongest arm in the league during their career. Both complete below 60% of their passes. Josh Allen is entering his 3rd year in the NFL has a 56.3% career completion percentage. Jeff George had a career completion percentage of 57.9%....entering his 3rd season in the NFL Jeff George's career completion percentage was 57.8%. George at the same point in their careers is only 1.5% better than Josh. However you slice it they're both very similar in two categories: arm strength + career completion percentage.

Next!

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6 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

You’re trying way too hard to prop Allen up.  Relax.  It’s unfortunate that Buffalo is going to waste lots of talent before they finally cut the cord with this guy. But at least you have your HC locked to a 6 year contract.  I think very highly of him.  I wish he were the Jets HC. Allen is going to waste lots of his tenure also.

Yeah, I mean, why bother with facts on video when we can believe our pre-conceived notions.

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Just now, playtowinthegame said:

Both have strongest arm in the league during their career. Both complete below 60% of their passes. Josh Allen is entering his 3rd year in the NFL has a 56.3% career completion percentage. Jeff George had a career completion percentage of 57.9%....entering his 3rd season in the NFL Jeff George's career completion percentage was 57.8%. George at the same point in their careers is only 1.5% better than Josh. However you slice it they're both very similar in two categories: arm strength + career completion percentage.

Next!

Jeff George rushed for 307 yards over his entire career. He once led the league in passing yards with less than 4000 yards. It was a different era, and they're completely different players. 

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1 minute ago, GreenCow said:

OH

MY 

GOODNESS

Look at this video I just found.

Maybe THIS is why his completion % is so low. 

Thats WAY more than the 10 or 14 completions he would need to catch up to Darnolds completion percentage haha.

This is insane.

 

Again, you’re trying way too hard.

EVERY QB has receivers infuriatingly drop passes on them.  It’s the nature of the game itself.  I could play the same game with Darnold, who has had mostly very dubious “NFL” “talent” (if you can call it that) try to catch his passes which are usually right on target as he escapes with his life from the ALWAYS collapsed (in less than 2 seconds haha) pocket....but I won’t.

Try to find that video I saw of Josh Allen missing wide open guys or just passes in general by a country mile.  It is many minutes long.  There are a huge number which of course correlates to Allen’s lack of long TD throws (although we acknowledge he has “the strongest arm”, along with just passing yards).  Darnold could have hit the throws on that video using his left arm.

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6 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

Both have strongest arm in the league during their career. Both complete below 60% of their passes. Josh Allen is entering his 3rd year in the NFL has a 56.3% career completion percentage. Jeff George had a career completion percentage of 57.9%....entering his 3rd season in the NFL Jeff George's career completion percentage was 57.8%. George at the same point in their careers is only 1.5% better than Josh. However you slice it they're both very similar in two categories: arm strength + career completion percentage.

Next!

George’s completion % I think is more impressive than Allen’s.  If Allen was playing when George did I think he’d be Under 50%.
 

George also hit lots of long TD bombs and put up lots of points on a occasion.  Neither which Allen has done.

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Just now, slats said:

Jeff George rushed for 307 yards over his entire career. He once led the league in passing yards with less than 4000 yards. It was a different era, and they're completely different players. 

How about arm strength and career completion percentage? Those seem like important categories for a quarterback. And those eras aren't that much different, slats...this isn't like comparing Joe Namath to a current quarterback in the NFL. That different eras defense is best used to defend Joe Namath's stats.

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2 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

How about arm strength and career completion percentage? Those seem like important categories for a quarterback. And those eras aren't that much different, slats...this isn't like comparing Joe Namath to a current quarterback in the NFL. That different eras defense is best used to defend Joe Namath's stats.

Again, different era. <60% comp% was average in 1995. Only three starting QBs didn't hit that 60% mark last year with the worst one being Allen. 

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9 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Yeah, I mean, why bother with facts on video when we can believe our pre-conceived notions.

The video I saw that showed an incredible number of horrific throws would be considered prima facie Evidence.  His playoff appearance when the Bills were sent home was as awful as it was telling.  I think You are the one with “pre-conceived notions”.

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50 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Sam can make all the throws.  Pennington couldn’t. 

Sammy absolutely has top 5-10 potential.

We’ve never had a young QB that had that since Joe Willy.

Closest we had was pre-injury Pennington and he was more of the top 10-15 range.

I feel confident Joe D will put the roster in place...but will Gase step up? We can’t waste much more time. Should be make or break year for Gase in relation to Sam’s development.

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29 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

George’s completion % I think is more impressive than Allen’s.  If Allen was playing when George did I think he’d be Under 50%.

@slats this reply is for you too.

I'll give you that it was harder to complete 60%, but George was ranked 23rd, 8th, 21st, 17th, 9th, 10th, 20th, 20th, 22nd, 16th, 21st, 27th amongst his peers in completion percentage. Let's not make him out to be in the Steve Young or Kurt Warner class of accuracy.

 

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5 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

@slats this reply is for you too.

I'll give you that it was harder to complete 60%, but George was ranked 23rd, 8th, 21st, 17th, 9th, 10th, 20th, 20th, 22nd, 16th, 21st, 27th amongst his peers in completion percentage. Let's not make him out to be in the Steve Young or Kurt Warner class of accuracy.

I just don't think the analogy goes anywhere beyond the fact that both QBs have (had) huge arms and both have first names for last names. Jeff George played the game nothing like Allen. He was a statue back there just winding up and throwing it downfield. Allen's game is all scrambling and running. George definitely wasn't one of the league's more accurate passers, but Allen's been dead last in comp% for his first two seasons. That's a far cry from 20th, which I think Bills' fans would cream themselves over. 

If I was gonna comp him with a player from that era, it would be maybe Randall Cunningham. 

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3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

@slats If he comes back with the screen name Greenhamburgers, I’m calling dibs now. 

I hope he returns as a proud Bills fan with less spamming. 

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On 8/12/2020 at 10:55 AM, DoubleDown said:

I feel like this is obvious, but apparently it needs to be stated.  Accuracy and completion percentage are two completely different concepts.

Accuracy is all about ball placement.  The quarterback puts the ball in an ideal location where only the receiver can catch it and make the most of the completion.  Some examples of accuracy would be hitting a reciever in stride, placing a ball on the back shoulder for a fade, or placing a ball low for a receiver running over the middle to reduce exposure to a big hit.  This is a very tough metric to capture and relies on the eye test and discretion of the observer.

Completion percentage is a catch rate metric.  It can be largely influenced by offensive system, quality of receivers, quality of offensive line suppressing a pass rush, and of course, quarterback accuracy.  Inaccurate passes can end up as completions, and accurate passes can end up as incompletions.  It should also be noted that historically speaking a difference of 3-4% completion percentage over a career or multiple seasons is quite a big difference.

Bottom line, using completion percentage as a comprehensive indicator of accuracy is misguided.  Using adjustments to completion percentage to compare the accuracy of two different quarterbacks is just plain silly.

 

Well there are metrics out there about ball placement.  I believe PFF has one.  But you have to pay to see it.  So for now, this is all we have.  Completion % when factoring in air yards per attempt and YPA is still useful. 

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I love how I come into a thread called "Sam Darnold looking good in camp" figuring maybe I will get some KRL updates or something, only to find dozens of posts by some MadCowDisease guy who has a hard-on for Josh Allen?  Wow.  replying once, twice, maybe three times?  fine.  but this is ridiculous!!

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4 minutes ago, Legend Killa7 said:

I love how I come into a thread called "Sam Darnold looking good in camp" figuring maybe I will get some KRL updates or something, only to find dozens of posts by some MadCowDisease guy who has a hard-on for Josh Allen?  Wow.  replying once, twice, maybe three times?  fine.  but this is ridiculous!!

And yet, according to him, we're all the homers.

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On 8/11/2020 at 4:31 PM, GreenCow said:

Where did you go to school? Jersey?

Allen's actual 2019 output

271/461 = 58.7%

Add 10 completions.

281/461 = 61%

If you went to private school, ask for your money back.

If you went public ... well, it makes sense.

PS, adding 40 passes would have made Allen's completion 67%.

 

So in the school you paid for an education to compare the completions of two players, both who have two seasons under their belts, its appropriate to only compare one season?  Thats the trues indicator?  One season, the one season Darnold plays sick counts and the ridiculously bad season for Allen somehow goes away?  No matter how you slice it, completes more passes.  And has been said over and over again, accuracy is more than just completion percentages.  Why the hell are you even attempting to argue that Allen is the same league as Darnold when it comes to accuracy 

 

 

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