Sam Darnold looking good in camp

[Jet Nut]

Yes, a lot of times, historically, 300 yard games are generated by playing behind.  Historically, not recently with the rule changes.  all those 1970-2009 type games need to get thrown out.  Even without the changes, you dont make the mindless claim that 300 yard games arent game winners.

 

[Grandy]

So in this thread I've seen claims that throwing for 300 yards is a bad thing, and Matt Stafford and Alex Smith aren't good QB's (LOL).

This is quite entertaining to say the least. 

[GreenCow]

Another telling stat.

15 of the last 20 Super Bowl winning QB’s threw less than 300 yards.

The losing QB did throw over 300 often.

 

[GreenCow]

4 minutes ago, Grandy said:

So in this thread I've seen claims that throwing for 300 yards is a bad thing, and Matt Stafford and Alex Smith aren't good QB's (LOL).

This is quite entertaining to say the least. 

It just shows whether you’re a smart fan or not.

Those who read analytics and know statistics, know that 300 yard games often result in the QB losing.

Thats not opinion, that’s fact.

Its actual statistics.

Message board posters sometimes just don’t want to say “ok, I was wrong”. And I understand that. 

As far as Alex Smith goes, it just shows the sad state of the franchise, that fans think he is a good QB.

Everyone thinks Allen sucks yet Allen had more TD’s last year than Alex Smith had EVER in his entire career. Puts it into perspective. Also, he was traded for a 3rd round pick, which shows his value around the league. McCarron was being dealt for a 2nd rounder if I remember right.

[GreenCow]

13 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

 Even without the changes, you dont make the mindless claim that 300 yard games arent game winners.

 

Well, they’re literally not. And it’s the opposite of mindless.

It uses actual thought and stats. Instead of just saying “durrr - more yards must be good - durr”. Now THAT is mindless.

Just a year ago (not 1970-2009), QB’s that threw for over 300 yards lost over 50% of those games.

Thats the definition of not being a winner lol.

[Jet Nut]

6 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Those who read analytics and know statistics, know that 300 yard games often result in the QB losing.

Thats not opinion, that’s fact.

 

No shlt, we know this, everyone does

Now the ass backwards application is that the ability to toss 300 yard games is bad or not a talent worth having.

Stop with the asinine defense of Josh Allen and his scatter arm not being able to deliver a 300 yard game.  Once

Not the like the Bills havent lost games the last 2 years and couldn't have used a 300 yard game to turn a loss into a win, which also happens.  Guess that ability is meaningless. 

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Well, they’re literally not. Just a year ago (not 1970-2009), QB’s that threw for over 300 yards lost over 50% of those games.

Thats the definition of not being a winner lol.

Thats one year.

If you dont see a change from the way the game is played, the way the owners and fans want it played and what wins today vs the 70's youre either clueless, trolling or too young to know better

[GreenCow]

10 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Thats one year.

If you dont see a change from the way the game is played, the way the owners and fans want it played and what wins today vs the 70's youre either clueless, trolling or too young to know better

You're right that the game is changing.

There are much more 300+ yard passers today than ever before.

But those 300 yard passers are losing.

You seem to think that just because more passing is happening, that means those QB’s are winning.

But they’re not.

In the playoffs, QB’s who threw for over 300 yards went 2-6 and none made the Super Bowl.

[Grandy]

8 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

It just shows whether you’re a smart fan or not.

Those who read analytics and know statistics, know that 300 yard games often result in the QB losing.

Thats not opinion, that’s fact.

Its actual statistics.

Message board posters sometimes just don’t want to say “ok, I was wrong”. And I understand that. 

As far as Alex Smith goes, it just shows the sad state of the franchise, that fans think he is a good QB.

Everyone thinks Allen sucks yet Allen had more TD’s last year than Alex Smith had EVER in his entire career. Puts it into perspective. Also, he was traded for a 3rd round pick, which shows his value around the league. McCarron was being dealt for a 2nd rounder if I remember right.

Yeah the guy with a 94-66 Career record with multiple pro bowls, who's lead the league in QB rating and had the lowest int% twice is not good. The guy went 8 straight seasons with 8 picks or less. having double the amount of wins to losses in that span. 

7D chess right here.

[TheMo]

13 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Well, they’re literally not. And it’s the opposite of mindless.

It uses actual thought and stats. Instead of just saying “durrr - more yards must be good - durr”. Now THAT is mindless.

Just a year ago (not 1970-2009), QB’s that threw for over 300 yards lost over 50% of those games.

Thats the definition of not being a winner lol.

Don't go tossing around insults like you are God's gift to data analytics. You are completely confusing correlation with causation. You then are applying this to a player you clearly think is going to be great to make a flawed point. My background is as a physician and regularly perform data analytics as part of the job. If you like Josh Allen that's fine, but don't jump to flawed conclusions from data and then accuse long time posters on here of being stupid for not following you on your misguided statistical journey. 

[Ken Schroy]

23 hours ago, Trolly McTrollface said:

There’s something you have to realize about the internet, and message boards like this.

We don’t know each other personally, and know very little, if anything about each other’s personal lives. We’ve pm’ed each other about a few things so I’ll tell you this...

I lost my mother last weekend, and drove up to Long Island immediately. My family buried her earlier this week. When I finally logged back on here, I saw about 40 notifications. Most of them were juvenile quotes or reacts to my supporting Jamal Adams, and not being as crazy about his trade as others.

I simply wasn’t in the mood to reply, but after reading most of them, I felt like returning the favor, so to speak. What’s the easiest way to do it? Question Sam Darnold.

i got to release some steam, watch a bunch of homers implode, and laugh at their reactions. Basically just what the doctor ordered. It gave me a few hours to forget my sorrow, and laugh at the childish feelings of grown men who are way too invested in a 23 year old QB.

.and oh yeah. I’d take any of those QBs over Darnold. I’ve seen two years of him, and guys like Jones (who had a way better rookie year on just as bad a team), Tua and Burrow can’t do any worse.

Sorry for your loss man. I buried my Dad 3 weeks ago, so I hear you. But honestly I would find better things to do than come on here and try to get a rise out of fellow Jets fans. But thats just me I guess.

[Mogglez]

22 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

It just shows whether you’re a smart fan or not.

Those who read analytics and know statistics, know that 300 yard games often result in the QB losing.

Thats not opinion, that’s fact.

Its actual statistics.

Message board posters sometimes just don’t want to say “ok, I was wrong”. And I understand that. 

As far as Alex Smith goes, it just shows the sad state of the franchise, that fans think he is a good QB.

Everyone thinks Allen sucks yet Allen had more TD’s last year than Alex Smith had EVER in his entire career. Puts it into perspective. Also, he was traded for a 3rd round pick, which shows his value around the league. McCarron was being dealt for a 2nd rounder if I remember right.

If you want to use analytics to defend Allen you are going to have an incredibly bad time.

[Ken Schroy]

21 hours ago, Losmeister said:

there are those who have faith and there are doubters.

the facts support the doubters. the doubters, who hope that Sam will indeed prove those who doubted were wrong and those who had faith were right.

ffs, at one point we all hoped Sanchez will come good. 

Did you get that from a fortune cookie?

[Matt39]

Allen's accuracy will always be a problem, its just terrible. He does make up for things with his ability to scramble (which is elite) and it's also something Darnold refused to do last year. 

[GreenCow]

2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

If you want to use analytics to defend Allen you are going to have an incredibly bad time.

That’s true.

[GreenCow]

13 minutes ago, TheMo said:

Don't go tossing around insults like you are God's gift to data analytics. You are completely confusing correlation with causation. You then are applying this to a player you clearly think is going to be great to make a flawed point. My background is as a physician and regularly perform data analytics as part of the job. If you like Josh Allen that's fine, but don't jump to flawed conclusions from data and then accuse long time posters on here of being stupid for not following you on your misguided statistical journey. 

I find some humor in a post advocating for correlation, while not realizing the correlation that caused the post.

I never insulted him or anyone else. That’s not my style.

He said it was mindless to say 300 yard games result in losses.

I responded, no, it’s mindless to simply regurgitate the same old “more yards mean better play” thought.

Context matters. No one was being insulted. Please pay better attention.

As far as your data allegations go, it’s impossible to respond to as you provided no information on where you believe I went wrong. Likely because you have nothing to point to.

[GreenCow]

29 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Yeah the guy with a 94-66 Career record with multiple pro bowls, who's lead the league in QB rating and had the lowest int% twice is not good. The guy went 8 straight seasons with 8 picks or less. having double the amount of wins to losses in that span. 

7D chess right here.

Tyrod Taylor went 3 straight seasons with least amount of INT’s.

Thats fairy close to irrelevant to me.

There is a reason why the Chiefs drafted a QB in the 1st round.

There is a reason why the Chiefs could only garner a 3rd round pick in exchange for Smith.

There is a reason why Alex Smith never made it past a playoff game as a starter.

There is a reason why Chiefs fans on ChiefsPlanet were begging to get rid of him.

Its sad what decades of crappy QB play can do to the minds of fans. They think anyone is good.

How about Joe Flacco - Do you think Flacco is good?

[Lurker89]

14 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Matt Stafford and Alex Smith sucked to start their careers you smooth brain. 

[Jet Nut]

26 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

You're right that the game is changing.

There are much more 300+ yard passers today than ever before.

But those 300 yard passers are losing.

You seem to think that just because more passing is happening, that means those QB’s are winning.

But they’re not.

In the playoffs, QB’s who threw for over 300 yards went 2-6 and none made the Super Bowl.

I said theyre winning more of those 300 yard games than before.  That prolific passing games are part of the norm.  I dont care what numbers you pull out of the air or where you get them but from 1966 until the mid 80s the passing record was 4007 yards.  Then it went up from the Greises of the world passing for 2K per to now 4K is the norm and 5K is part of an offense led by Jameis.  Dont tell me teams that win are winning with fewer wins.  If a 14 win Pats team wins with a 4800 yard passers, theyre averaging 300 passing yards a game.  

So dont hand out that idea that its only in losses.  Or what that applied in the running era is the same as what applies in the game as its played today

[GreenCow]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

I said theyre winning more of those 300 yard games than before.  That prolific passing games are part of the norm.  I dont care what numbers you pull out of the air or where you get them but from 1966 until the mid 80s the passing record was 4007 yards.  Then it went up from the Greises of the world passing for 2K per to now 4K is the norm and 5K is part of an offense led by Jameis.  Dont tell me teams that win are winning with fewer wins.  If a 14 win Pats team wins with a 4800 yard passers, theyre averaging 300 passing yards a game.  

So dont hand out that idea that its only in losses.  Or what that applied in the running era is the same as what applies in the game as its played today

Ok

[Jet Nut]

25 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Allen's accuracy will always be a problem, its just terrible. He does make up for things with his ability to scramble (which is elite) and it's also something Darnold refused to do last year. 

Darnold had mono which makes an exploding spleen possible and life threatening

Might have had something to do with limiting his running around 

Like everyone cried Shanahan should have done with RG3

[Jetster]

Can someone tell me if recovering from Mono saps your strength? Obviously early, when your in the depths of feeling the illness. My reason for asking is Sam looked like he didn't want to scramble last year, he gave up wide open running lanes to throw instead. 

If he was compromised physically for most of the year, I expect to see a much stronger guy, another offseason of working out, completely healthy, because his ability to move around & take off occasionally when everyone's covered is a backbreaker for defenses. 

[Grandy]

Just now, Jetster said:

Can someone tell me if recovering from Mono saps your strength? Obviously early, when your in the depths of feeling the illness. My reason for asking is Sam looked like he didn't want to scramble last year, he gave up wide open running lanes to throw instead. 

If he was compromised physically for most of the year, I expect to see a much stronger guy, another offseason of working out, completely healthy, because his ability to move around & take off occasionally when everyone's covered is a backbreaker for defenses. 

Mono has a lot of ranges in terms of severity. https://www.ct-cfids-fm.org/long-term-effects-of-mononucleosis-chronic-fatigue-syndrome/

It seems common for people to feel the effects for months after they've recovered in the form of fatigue. He already had ths spleen complication which was visibly affecting his comfort and confidence. Also with mono he wasn't engaging in football (or any physical) activities for almost a month which may have lowered his physicality as well. 

He also seems to have slimmed down a bit so it'll be interesting to see his playing strength this year and if mono really did affect him greatly.

 

 

[Drums]

47 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Allen's accuracy will always be a problem, its just terrible. He does make up for things with his ability to scramble (which is elite) and it's also something Darnold refused to do last year. 

Agreed on everything in this entire post—Allen is an elite scrambler and will never be known for his accuracy, and Darnold definitely seemed to hold back a bit last year (but the whole Mono thing is a good reason for that). I thought he was more of an improviser in year one and I hope we see more of that next year— it is his special skill that seems to elevate the players around him when he uses it. 
 

Also, Allen does seem to work hard so I’ll give him that. 

[Lurker89]

49 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Tyrod Taylor went 3 straight seasons with least amount of INT’s.

 

You know a lot about Tyrod Taylor for someone Who is not a Bills fan....

[Mogglez]

20 minutes ago, Drums said:

Agreed on everything in this entire post—Allen is an elite scrambler and will never be known for his accuracy, and Darnold definitely seemed to hold back a bit last year (but the whole Mono thing is a good reason for that). I thought he was more of an improviser in year one and I hope we see more of that next year— it is his special skill that seems to elevate the players around him when he uses it. 
 

Also, Allen does seem to work hard so I’ll give him that. 

I went into that draft despising Allen.  Fast forward to today I respect the sh*t out of him because I, truthfully, believe he's come a long way and proved a ton of detractors, myself included, wrong about how he would far on the NFL stage.  It's the Bills fans that come here due to their insecurities that rile me up over the guy.

[Jet Nut]

45 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Can someone tell me if recovering from Mono saps your strength? Obviously early, when your in the depths of feeling the illness. My reason for asking is Sam looked like he didn't want to scramble last year, he gave up wide open running lanes to throw instead. 

If he was compromised physically for most of the year, I expect to see a much stronger guy, another offseason of working out, completely healthy, because his ability to move around & take off occasionally when everyone's covered is a backbreaker for defenses. 

Mono has a 6-8 week recovery period.  He came back in week 4

Mono leaves your Spleen swollen  and susceptible to rupturing

He wore a flak jacket to protect the Spleen

It makes perfect sense why Sam wasn't running around, trying to reduce the number of hits he would take

[Ghost420]

This place sucks without camp updates

[TuscanyTile2]

7 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

This place sucks without camp updates

I blame maxman

[TheMo]

1 hour ago, GreenCow said:

I find some humor in a post advocating for correlation, while not realizing the correlation that caused the post.

I never insulted him or anyone else. That’s not my style.

He said it was mindless to say 300 yard games result in losses.

I responded, no, it’s mindless to simply regurgitate the same old “more yards mean better play” thought.

Context matters. No one was being insulted. Please pay better attention.

As far as your data allegations go, it’s impossible to respond to as you provided no information on where you believe I went wrong. Likely because you have nothing to point to.

I said you did that incorrectly. You're reading comprehension is incorrect. You are using correlation and arguing AS IF it's causation. That's what you did wrong. Josh Allen had a mildly better year than Sam Darnold. If you want to say Allen is an MVP candidate then you must think Darnold had similar potential this year. I personally think both have a lot of work to do to be considered above average going forward. I put more faith in Darnold because I think accuracy is a more important long term indicator for success albeit not perfect. 

[GreenCow]

Just now, TheMo said:

I said you did that incorrectly. You're reading comprehension is incorrect. You are using correlation and arguing AS IF it's causation. That's what you did wrong. Josh Allen had a mildly better year than Sam Darnold. If you want to say Allen is an MVP candidate then you must think Darnold had similar potential this year.
 

Can you quote the exact post where I incorrectly used correlation?

Also, I never said Allen is an MVP candidate. The MVP bettors did.

[TheMo]

9 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Can you quote the exact post where I incorrectly used correlation?

Also, I never said Allen is an MVP candidate. The MVP bettors did.

Ok so do you think they are wrong or right about the MVP potential?

[TheMo]

2 hours ago, GreenCow said:

It just shows whether you’re a smart fan or not.

Those who read analytics and know statistics, know that 300 yard games often result in the QB losing.

Thats not opinion, that’s fact.

Its actual statistics.

Message board posters sometimes just don’t want to say “ok, I was wrong”. And I understand that. 

As far as Alex Smith goes, it just shows the sad state of the franchise, that fans think he is a good QB.

Everyone thinks Allen sucks yet Allen had more TD’s last year than Alex Smith had EVER in his entire career. Puts it into perspective. Also, he was traded for a 3rd round pick, which shows his value around the league. McCarron was being dealt for a 2nd rounder if I remember right.

A 300 yard game doesn't result in the QB losing. You infer causality in that statement. You are wrong. 

[viffer]

1 hour ago, Jetster said:

Can someone tell me if recovering from Mono saps your strength? Obviously early, when your in the depths of feeling the illness. My reason for asking is Sam looked like he didn't want to scramble last year, he gave up wide open running lanes to throw instead. 

If he was compromised physically for most of the year, I expect to see a much stronger guy, another offseason of working out, completely healthy, because his ability to move around & take off occasionally when everyone's covered is a backbreaker for defenses. 

I had mono when I was in college (missed finals that semester and had to retroactively drop one class). As has been said here, recovery time varies, but my personal experience was that I felt the effects for what seemed like forever, at least a few months. Not that I was deathly ill, but definitely tired more easily and didn't have the mental acumen for awhile (hence why I had to withdraw rather than take a makeup final; 3rd year calculus is not something you take without a clear head...). These were not constant symptoms, but they overall degraded my performance for quite a while. And I was an engineering student in college, not a professional athlete having to physically work out daily and take a beating on Sunday.

I would be very surprised if Sam was 100% even by the end of the season. Not saying he was on death's door all season, but I'm sure he was at least feeling some effects, like lack of stamina, or possibly difficulty concentrating at some times.

[Grandy]

3 minutes ago, viffer said:

I had mono when I was in college (missed finals that semester and had to retroactively drop one class). As has been said here, recovery time varies, but my personal experience was that I felt the effects for what seemed like forever, at least a few months. Not that I was deathly ill, but definitely tired more easily and didn't have the mental acumen for awhile (hence why I had to withdraw rather than take a makeup final; 3rd year calculus is not something you take without a clear head...). These were not constant symptoms, but they overall degraded my performance for quite a while. And I was an engineering student in college, not a professional athlete having to physically work out daily and take a beating on Sunday.

I would be very surprised if Sam was 100% even by the end of the season. Not saying he was on death's door all season, but I'm sure he was at least feeling some effects, like lack of stamina, or possibly difficulty concentrating at some times.

Interestingly enough, Tony Romo had remarked that Darnold looked fatigued towards the end of the Cowboys game in which he played very well. He also didn't look that strong throughout the season.