SI: The Machinery Is in Motion to Postpone the 2020 College Football Season

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

People don't like facts and data around here. They just accept the fear the media portrays. There's no reason why there shouldn't be college football. The data tells us that kids 25 and under are at very low risk.

Theres been less than 300 corona related deaths in the USA from kids under 24 years old. In comparison, if you look at total # of deaths for people under 24 and there have been over 25,000 deaths. So 99% of kids in that age group are dieing from something other than Corona.

College kids have a greater chance of dieing in a car accident driving to the stadium than from corona virus. 

You, a scientist: There is no need to cancel football. Football will proceed as planned. 

Billion dollars in revenue-generating conference chairmen: <Unilaterally cancel the football season, setting giant piles of cash ablaze> 

You, a scientist: Did you not see @CTM’s climate charts from March sirs? 
 

[CTM]

40 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Most hospitals in Major American cities will have only 50-100 in patient beds under normal circumstances.  They aren’t staffed or equipped to handle more than that

 

So even if your graphs are correct it still indicates a major problem that is completely overwhelming our hospitals

I mean that's just not true right now. It certainly did happen in NYC area though, but everywhere isn't NYC in the winter.  Texas Medical Center never went to Phase 3 even at peak. I live in central NJ and the hospitals around me were never busy even a day

All i said to kick all of this off is that Arizona, Florida and Texas seem to be past their peak. That is true.

That doesn't mean I think this is a hoax though, I agree with mandatory masks, and the banning of mass gatherings. And limiting indoor density.

I don't believe a kid should be forced out of life for 2 years though, , I don't think it's warranted and I think the virus is going to move through population until we have some level of herd immunity either via vaccine or naturally.

 

[RutgersJetFan]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You, a scientist: There is no need to cancel football. Football will proceed as planned. 

Billion dollars in revenue-generating conference chairmen: <Unilaterally cancel the football season, setting giant piles of cash ablaze> 

You, a scientist: Did you not see @CTM’s climate charts from March sirs? 
 

If teachers over 60 don't want to die so that 20 year-olds can take 19th Century French Poetry anywhere but on a web-based educational platform, they can suck a big fat dong.

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

If teachers over 60 don't want to die so that 20 year-olds can take 19th Century French Poetry anywhere but on a web-based educational platform, they can suck a big fat dong.

On the plus side, COVID may finally kill off the tenured socialists infesting America’s campuses and—bonus—Wake Forest can compete for the ACC crown. 

[CTM]

57 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You, a scientist: There is no need to cancel football. Football will proceed as planned. 

Billion dollars in revenue-generating conference chairmen: <Unilaterally cancel the football season, setting giant piles of cash ablaze> 

You, a scientist: Did you not see @CTM’s climate charts from March sirs? 
 

I still think the data shows seasonality plays a large role here sir. A significant % of people in south head indoors during july, which mutes seasonal impact.

Why was NJ having more deaths 6 weeks into lockdown than tx/fl/AZ/Ga did with limited/no lockdowns?

None of the below is conclusive but it suggests yah more than nah that the heat / humidity somewhat protected the no mask wearing knuckleheads in the south all summer just as it did in spring to greater effect

 

 

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/covid-seasonality

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767010

 

 

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

On the plus side, COVID may finally kill off the tenured socialists infesting America’s campuses and—bonus—Wake Forest can compete for the ACC crown. 

Half of them already retired after the Spring closures because they don't use email and couldn't figure out what discussion forums were.

[CTM]

53 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

 

Billion dollars in revenue-generating conference chairmen: <Unilaterally cancel the football season, setting giant piles of cash ablaze> 


 

ehh, there's a tremendous amount of pressure from all directions to not play. Plus I'd imagine significant liability issues. It only takes a few to succumb to it and many more will be forced to follow. Interestingly enough they are probably worried about a fall resurgence (seasonality  )

Meanwhile Amazon has hired over 200k warehouse employees in race against not being able to ship people their toys out next day. In the absence of pressure and spotlight money gunna money

[kelticwizard]

1 hour ago, CTM said:

Games are being played all over the place with case counts, deaths, hospital bed usage, either to inflate or deflate numbers for political purposes

Here we go with the doubletalk.  In a free society there will always be people coming up with competing numbers.  That does not change the fact that we expect people in official capacities to give honest statistics, not statistics skewed to advance a political agenda.

 

A government office selecting a way of counting Covid deaths which purposely gives partial counts for the past 2 months so that the death count charts look like deaths are declining when they are not is advancing a political agenda.  And if that government office is doctoring the death statistics, why believe the hospitalization statistics without further examination?

[kelticwizard]

2 hours ago, CTM said:

Games are being played all over the place with case counts, deaths, hospital bed usage, either to inflate or deflate numbers for political purposes

I don't know that  hospitalization counts is going to be lied about though, its a pretty hard number and in this case they are corroborated in multiple systems:

Here's TMC, a privately run collection of non profits which is one of the largest medical centers in the world based in Houston.

Maybe even more telling though is the media has gotten a lot more quiet about it form 2-4 weeks ago

That's odd.  Because from early July to the present, this hospitalization chart you just gave us showed the seven day average plunging over 50%.

However, this hosptialization chart of Texas you posted earlier shows the 7 day average for the same period going down only about 33%.

If hospitalization numbers are so hard to fudge, as you claim, what could possibly be the reason for the enormous difference between these two charts you gave us?

[kelticwizard]

3 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

College is optional. If people are scared to go, they don't have to. If the faculty doesn't want to work, They can quit. Can't live inside in fear for the rest of your life 

Nobody's talking about the rest of their lives.  A vaccine is expected possibly as soon as November. Given a choice of taking a possibly fatal chance with the season starting in September, or no chance of fatality at if it starts in December or January, I think most people think the wise choice is to hold off.

[T0mShane]

6 hours ago, CTM said:

eh

[T0mShane]

Me watching the NFL Network reporters finger-wag college football for handling this poorly, knowing full well they’re about to be in the same boat in sixty days:

[HawkeyeJet]

4 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

Nobody's talking about the rest of their lives.  A vaccine is expected possibly as soon as November. Given a choice of taking a possibly fatal chance with the season starting in September, or no chance of fatality at if it starts in December or January, I think most people think the wise choice is to hold off.

He only wants facts.  Hyperbole like "staying inside in fear for the rest of people's lives" surely was a typo by him.  

[freestater]

4 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

Nobody's talking about the rest of their lives.  A vaccine is expected possibly as soon as November. Given a choice of taking a possibly fatal chance with the season starting in September, or no chance of fatality at if it starts in December or January, I think most people think the wise choice is to hold off.

The quickest vaccine to ever be created was for mumps. It took 4 years. 

[sec101row23]

19 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Me watching the NFL Network reporters finger-wag college football for handling this poorly, knowing full well they’re about to be in the same boat in sixty days:

30 days

[Scott Dierking]

29 minutes ago, freestater said:

The quickest vaccine to ever be created was for mumps. It took 4 years. 

That's weird, because I receive a new flu vaccine every year.

[Larz]

With antibodies only lasting 2 weeks a vaccine may not be highly effective 

this could be the new normal 

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You, a scientist: There is no need to cancel football. Football will proceed as planned. 

Billion dollars in revenue-generating conference chairmen: <Unilaterally cancel the football season, setting giant piles of cash ablaze> 

You, a scientist: Did you not see @CTM’s climate charts from March sirs? 
 

His charts are so good he doesn’t even have to look at them or consider context and real world complexities before posting

[Matt39]

46 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Me watching the NFL Network reporters finger-wag college football for handling this poorly, knowing full well they’re about to be in the same boat in sixty days:

To be honest the NFL has done a pretty decent job so far. The players were definitely hesitant to play a month ago and then they showed up and saw their facilities have essentially been converted into clean rooms. Plus the amount of money they've dumped into frequent tests etc. There will be hiccups but the season is 100% happening.

[Scott Dierking]

2 minutes ago, Larz said:

With antibodies only lasting 2 weeks a vaccine may not be highly effective 

this could be the new normal 

Has that actually been scientifically proven? 

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Larz said:

With antibodies only lasting 2 weeks a vaccine may not be highly effective 

this could be the new normal 

I’ve heard the antibodies lifespan varies greatly.  Not to mention people with O Pos blood don’t even next symptomatic 

 

im crossing my fingers a legit vaccine is available by November otherwise no way does the NFL season get completed

 

[freestater]

22 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

That's weird, because I receive a new flu vaccine every year.

You think they're starting from scratch every year?

[nyjunc]

The world has gone insane

[Scott Dierking]

5 minutes ago, freestater said:

You think they're starting from scratch every year?

And that is exactly my point. From everything I read, the Covid-19 strain is similar to Sars. The Sars has the same protein spike as Covid-19.

As I understand it, that is why they had such an advance on this vaccine, there was already a lot of medical headway.

That, and a large piece of distributing a vaccine, is production and distribution. They are already producing numerous vaccines that are in trial, in case one or several hit, they will already have hundreds of millions doses ready, and ready for distribution.

 

[CTM]

6 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

That's odd.  Because from early July to the present, this hospitalization chart you just gave us showed the seven day average plunging over 50%.

However, this hosptialization chart of Texas you posted earlier shows the 7 day average for the same period going down only about 33%.

If hospitalization numbers are so hard to fudge, as you claim, what could possibly be the reason for the enormous difference between these two charts you gave us?

Ahh yes shining the bright light of reason on another nefarious conspriacy ! 

Except, as clearly indicated and linked in my posts the first graph was for all of Texas. The second was for Texas Medical Center which is one of the largest associations of hospitals in the world but based in Houston.  Houston of course is a city in Texas and thus the second graph was a subset of the first. TMC being by far the largest single network in Texas is more meaningful than pulling a single hospital. I only presented it as non governmental corroboration of Tx seemingly being past peak since you didnt believe Texas official numbers.

And Houston as a city (dense population) would see wider spread faster and thus spike and decline first. Which the chart shows.

Another hot spot is along the border hospitals where people, typically American expats or vacationers, are crossing the border and calling 911*. That continues unabated to my knowledge so I'd guess thier stats, while only a small % of Texas overall,  do not show as much of a decline. Just a guess though.

Right now it looks like Texas and in particular Arizona are moving past past thier peak. In a few weeks or months this may reverse for all I know. Imo  it's less likely than likely in the short term but certainly possible. The reality is that this is still the first quarter or half of a long battle. I am sure however that if it does reverse and hospitals start filling up I'll be highly dismayed at the loss of life and reversal of positive signals, but will acknowedledge it as fact. 

* https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/29/health/border-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html

[Matt39]

6 minutes ago, CTM said:

Ahh yes shining the bright light of reason on another nefarious conspriacy ! 

Except, as clearly indicated and linked in my posts the frirst graph was for all of Texas. The second was for Texas Medical Center which is one of the largest associations of hospitals in the world but based in Houston.  Houston of course is a city in Texas and thus the second graph was a subset of the first. TMC being by far the largest single network in Texas is more meaningful than pulling a single hospital. I only presented it as non governmental corroboration of Tx seemingly being past peak since you didnt believe Texas official numbers.

And Houston as a city (dense population) would see wider spread faster and thus spike and decline first. Which the chart shows.

Another hot spot is along the border hospitals where people, typically American expats or vacationers, are crossing the border and calling 911*. That continues unabated to my knowledge so I'd guess thier stats, while only a small % of Texas overall,  do not show as much of a decline. Just a guess though.

Right now it looks like Texas and in particular Arizona are moving past past thier peak. In a few weeks or months this may reverse for all I know. Imo  it's less likely than likely in the short term but certainly possible. The reality is that this is still the first quarter or half of a long battle. I am sure however that if it does reverse and hospitals start filling up I'll be highly dismayed at the loss of life and reversal of positive signals, but will acknowedledge it as fact. 

* https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/29/health/border-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html

I could be wrong but wasnt the goal to flatten the numbers so hospitals didnt become overrun? I check the Florida hospital numbers a few times a week and they've been doing just that, even during the peak/spike a few weeks ago. What exactly is going on here? Seems odd that people are still pushing that the virus right now is piling up bodies in the sunbelt states. It's just not even remotely accurate.

The major hospitals ICU capacity are looking good:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

[Philc1]

11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

And that is exactly my point. From everything I read, the Covid-19 strain is similar to Sars. The Sars has the same protein spike as Covid-19.

As I understand it, that is why they had such an advance on this vaccine, there was already a lot of medical headway.

That, and a large piece of distributing a vaccine, is production and distribution. They are already producing numerous vaccines that are in trial, in case one or several hit, they will already have hundreds of millions doses ready, and ready for distribution.

 

The production and distribution of the coronavirus vaccines is going to be a sh tshow

not only does the infrastructure not exist to distribute the billions of samples of the vaccine it will take to get rid of this thing but also the type of glass that is used to store and transport vaccines does not exist in the quantity needed

expect to see the ultrarich to get vaccinated first.  You would think that would include pro athletes 

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

I could be wrong but wasnt the goal to flatten the numbers so hospitals didnt become overrun? I check the Florida hospital numbers a few times a week and they've been doing just that, even during the peak/spike a few weeks ago. What exactly is going on here? Seems odd that people are still pushing that virus right now is piling up bodies in the sunbelt states. It's just not even remotely accurate.

Most hospitals don’t have the inpatient beds to absorb the massive wave that would occur if we opened up 100% like what a lot of people want to do.  Nor do they even have the financial incentive to do so since these hospitals are private for profit businesses.  A lot of people don’t have insurance now or they have insurance but it won’t reimburse the hospital.  Keeping someone inpatient at a private hospital costs more than $1k a day

[Scott Dierking]

1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

The production and distribution of the coronavirus vaccines is going to be a sh tshow

not only does the infrastructure not exist to distribute the billions of samples of the vaccine it will take to get rid of this thing but also the glass that is used to store and transport vaccines does not exist in the quantity needed

expect to see the ultrarich to get vaccinated first.  You would think that would include pro athletes 

Supposedly, the plan is to get it to hotspots first. We will see about that.

The military is taking over the distribution. They are handling the logistics. That will certainly be better than commercial gridlock.

The problem is not going to be getting it out, but the ethical reasoning of who gets it first.

[Bugg]

9 hours ago, Philc1 said:

You do realize those kids under 25 you think are immune to coronavirus will interact with older people like their parents, college faculty and other people who are succeptible to dying from coronavirus?

Likely if there is a season there will not be crowds in the stands nor cheerleaders. Watching the NHL, MLB, and EPL, it's not entirely crazy. 

[Philc1]

Just now, Scott Dierking said:

Supposedly, the plan is to get it to hotspots first. We will see about that.

The military is taking over the distribution. They are handling the logistics. That will certainly be better than commercial gridlock.

The problem is not going to be getting it out, but the ethical reasoning of who gets it first.

There won’t be any ethical reasoning or rationing.  The vaccines will be patented by whatever pharmaceutical company creates it (using taxpayer dollars from the NIH ofcourse).  Johnson & Johnson will likely be one of these companies that first has a patented vaccine

 

The reason why the polio vaccine was rolled out so quickly and polio is now completely obliterated is because Dr Salk refused to patent the vaccine and cost himself billions

[CTM]

 

1 hour ago, freestater said:

The quickest vaccine to ever be created was for mumps. It took 4 years. 

Technology has come along way since then. The amount of minds and money being thrown at this is unrivaled in human history. The company that gets there first can print money as governments will probably try and mandate .

The bigger issue is likely safety and efficacy I'd guess. I'm not an anti vaxxer, me and kids all up to date and get flu shots but I'd certainly be a little leary of something devised so quickly with no history 

[Matt39]

4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Most hospitals don’t have the inpatient beds to absorb the massive wave that would occur if we opened up 100% like what a lot of people want to do.  Nor do they even have the financial incentive to do so since these hospitals are private for profit businesses.  A lot of people don’t have insurance now or they have insurance but it won’t reimburse the hospital.  Keeping someone inpatient at a private hospital costs more than $1k a day

There wouldnt be a massive wave as long as the people most susceptible still take the proper precautions. 

[Bugg]

6 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

The production and distribution of the coronavirus vaccines is going to be a sh tshow

not only does the infrastructure not exist to distribute the billions of samples of the vaccine it will take to get rid of this thing but also the type of glass that is used to store and transport vaccines does not exist in the quantity needed

expect to see the ultrarich to get vaccinated first.  You would think that would include pro athletes 

Also viruses mutate, as will this one. The annual flu vaccine covers a few strains and gets modified year to year, but we will never be quick enough to adjust it to cover the next mutations. not to say it's a waste of time, but it's not the magic bullet either. 

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Likely if there is a season there will not be crowds in the stands nor cheerleaders. Watching the NHL, MLB, and EPL, it's not entirely crazy. 

I think there are ethics problems with having a college season that there aren’t with the pro sports.  NFL players get paid at least league minimum which is $580k to put themselves and their families at risk.  The only compensation for college players is education which they won’t get this year