What does the Jets/Bills point spread tell us?

[Augustiniak]

Point spread is Bills by 6.  They're at home, they're considered to be a well rounded team with lots of talent and they made the playoffs last year.  Brady is no longer in the division and they're widely regarded as the favorites to win the AFC East.  Jets on the other hand were just ranked as having the worst roster in the NFL.  Yet the Jets are only 6 point dogs on the road, where in a normal situation the home team gets 3 points.

Truth, I expected the spread to be higher, but at least a TD.  

Does this spread say that the Jets aren't as bad as the writers write, that Allen is a liability, or that Darnold can even a lot of this out despite no Adams?  Or something else.  Just curious about thoughts.  

[Scott Dierking]

I believe it to be a representation of the betting public's perception of the Bills and the Jets, so that it will draw even number of bets on both sides, for this particular game.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

I believe it to be a representation of the betting public's perception of the Bills and the Jets, so that it will draw even number of bets on both sides, for this particular game.

I see what you're saying but I can't fathom that the public thinks the bills are only 6 points better than the Jets, in Buffalo.

[section314]

That Vegas thinks that the 2nd best team in the AFC is a TD better than us. Seems fair.

[KRL]

Absolutely nothing.  There is total "blindness" going into the season and the first month

will have a ton of mistakes.  The team that limits them can get off to a good start

[T0mShane]

The Jets soundly beat the Bills twice last year, but they blew a 17 point lead in the first game when Josh Allen figured out that he could get whatever he wanted if he targeted Jamal Adams’ area on the field

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

This means that if you bet the Bills to cover, they need to beat the Jets by 7 points in order for your bet to win. If you bet the Jets to cover, you need them to lose by 5 points or less/win in order for your bet to hit.

For gambling advice, please feel free to PM me.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Jets soundly beat the Bills twice last year, but they blew a 17 point lead in the first game when Josh Allen figured out that he could get whatever he wanted if he targeted Jamal Adams’ area on the field

to be fair josh allen barely played in that game, the bills were prepping for the playoffs.  again you'd think the bills would be larger favs.  if your life depended on it today would you take the bills and give 6 or take the jets?  

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Daddy Wang Doodle said:

This means that if you bet the Bills to cover, they need to beat the Jets by 7 points in order for your bet to win. If you bet the Jets to cover, you need them to lose by 5 points or less/win in order for your bet to hit.

For gambling advice, please feel free to PM me.

i'm an actuary, i get the math.  i'm just introducing another topic for the sake of sanity

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Point spread is Bills by 6.  They're at home, they're considered to be a well rounded team with lots of talent and they made the playoffs last year.  Brady is no longer in the division and they're widely regarded as the favorites to win the AFC East.  Jets on the other hand were just ranked as having the worst roster in the NFL.  Yet the Jets are only 6 point dogs on the road, where in a normal situation the home team gets 3 points.

Truth, I expected the spread to be higher, but at least a TD.  

Does this spread say that the Jets aren't as bad as the writers write, that Allen is a liability, or that Darnold can even a lot of this out despite no Adams?  Or something else.  Just curious about thoughts.  

First few weeks lines aren’t as accurate as they should be.  Then as more data is produced and teams get settled into “being who they are” the lines get tougher and tougher.

I wouldn’t read too much into the 6 number other than it looks like Vegas wants some more money being bet on Buffalo, I wouldn’t say that if it were 7.. 7 1/2...which is actually a good sign for the Jets, who have inferior team when compared to Buffalo (outside of QB), and are on the Road.

[section314]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Jets soundly beat the Bills twice last year, but they blew a 17 point lead in the first game when Josh Allen figured out that he could get whatever he wanted if he targeted Jamal Adams’ area on the field

To quote the great Bob Seeger..."rock n roll never forgets."? Ironically, it was Mayes' dropped INT midway through the 4th Q that may have turned that game around.

[SAR I]

8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I see what you're saying but I can't fathom that the public thinks the bills are only 6 points better than the Jets, in Buffalo.

The “public” are stupid.  

The Jets beat the Bills twice last year and Sam Darnold has never lost in Buffalo.  Josh Allen plays his worst in high pressure situations.  The Bills have never played the role of the division favorite.

Some see it as an upset, I see it as an expectation.   

Jets 30
Bills 20

SAR I

[Losmeister]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Jets soundly beat the Bills twice last year, but they blew a 17 point lead in the first game when Josh Allen figured out that he could get whatever he wanted if he targeted Jamal Adams’ area on the field

i think if maye hadnt dropped the INT before they scored that FG it mighta killed the game off...

[#27TheDominator]

Like the 2010 Jets, the Bills consider themselves a defensive team.   They aren't a wide open shoot-out team like the Saints.  Generally scoring in their games will be lower and spreads closer.  OTOH, the over/under is 40 and that would be a high scoring game for the 2019 Bills (19 ppg) and Jets (17 ppg)

[Losmeister]

8 minutes ago, section314 said:

To quote the great Bob Seeger..."rock n roll never forgets."? Ironically, it was Mayes' dropped INT midway through the 4th Q that may have turned that game around.

i didnt read this b4 i posted. 

[jbt]

Bills are a solid team but very beatable even in Buffalo.  if Sam plays whole game Jets win

 

[bitonti]

43 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Point spread is Bills by 6.  They're at home, they're considered to be a well rounded team with lots of talent and they made the playoffs last year.  Brady is no longer in the division and they're widely regarded as the favorites to win the AFC East.  Jets on the other hand were just ranked as having the worst roster in the NFL.  Yet the Jets are only 6 point dogs on the road, where in a normal situation the home team gets 3 points.

Truth, I expected the spread to be higher, but at least a TD.  

Does this spread say that the Jets aren't as bad as the writers write, that Allen is a liability, or that Darnold can even a lot of this out despite no Adams?  Or something else.  Just curious about thoughts.  

RE: the spread

talking about points without price is foolishness and talking about the spread without the moneyline is also wrong... to wit... 

Question 1 - what's the price on the 6 points?

Right now to bet BUF -6 +100 is an EVEN bet - bet 100 to win 200 

to bet NYJ +6 -120 is bet 100 to win 183.30

the casinos are inviting a bet on the Bills. Why is not clear. Maybe because alot of Jets money has already been placed. Maybe because they believe the game will be closer than 6 points and feel they can sucker people into betting Bills blowout. Divisional games are always tight, historically, regardless of the gap in talent between the rosters. They are trying to invite more action on the Bills side. 

Question 2 - what's the moneyline say? 

Bills are -245 to win outright that makes them a 71% implied odds favorite to win the game 

the Jets at +205 to win outright makes them a 32% implied odds underdog to win

(I don't know why they don't add up to 100%, ask a math person)

 

so what does this all mean yes they are ONLY 6 point dogs on the road they are also about 30 percent to win this game according to the books 

 

27 minutes ago, SAR I said:

The Jets beat the Bills twice last year  

another way of saying the Bills have double revenge

[bitonti]

37 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

First few weeks lines aren’t as accurate as they should be.  Then as more data is produced and teams get settled into “being who they are” the lines get tougher and tougher.

I wouldn’t read too much into the 6 number other than it looks like Vegas wants some more money being bet on Buffalo, I wouldn’t say that if it were 7.. 7 1/2...which is actually a good sign for the Jets, who have inferior team when compared to Buffalo (outside of QB), and are on the Road.

this too - week 1 lines are based on history more than anything else because there's no actual data to use

full disclosure I made exactly 200 ATS spread bets last year legally in PA, but I don't bet week 1. It's really hard to lay off but it's just throwing darts until there is actual regular season film to watch 

[derp]

41 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i'm an actuary, i get the math.  i'm just introducing another topic for the sake of sanity

What field? I spent several years on the path before deciding it wasn't for me - still think the actuarial skill set is cool and under-appreciated.

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

What field? I spent several years on the path before deciding it wasn't for me - still think the actuarial skill set is cool and under-appreciated.

property and casualty actuarial consulting...man, i should have met you when i was single....

[peebag]

57 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Jets soundly beat the Bills twice last year, but they blew a 17 point lead in the first game when Josh Allen figured out that he could get whatever he wanted if he targeted Jamal Adams’ area on the field

I expected this slant to grow old but it never does!

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

 they blew a 17 point lead in the first game when Josh Allen figured out that he could get whatever he wanted if he targeted Jamal Adams’ area on the field

the Bills game was lost for several reasons 

1) lack of a PK (missed XP, missed FG, that's 4 missing points in a 1 point loss) 

2) QB playing with mono (visibly terrible, look at his stats from that game) 

3) whatever happened on defense

end of the day, for any defense to give up 17 points on the road is an above average job in 2020 NFL 

the problem with the Jets (and this has been the case for the last 10+ seasons) is that the offenses have been so anemic, 16 points feels like 30.  a defense shouldn't have to pitch shut outs every game for the team to have a chance. the offense can, ya know, score points as well. 

 

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

whatever happened on defense

The defense lost their one dynamic player and Allen went buck wild running and throwing down the middle of the field.

[bitonti]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

The defense lost their one dynamic player and Allen went buck wild running and throwing down the middle of the field.

in a 17-16 game no one went buck wild

the Jets should have won 19-17 due to the missed FG if nothing else

17-17 gets them to OT 

all of this is besides the point

if you aren't scoring 25 or 30 points on offense your offense didn't show up 

that's 2020 NFL and the Super Bowl proved how fast the league wants point to be scored 

 

[BallinPB]

I don't think spreads are going to have much emphasis on home field advantage being that there will be no fans in attendance.  

[playtowinthegame]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Point spread is Bills by 6.  They're at home, they're considered to be a well rounded team with lots of talent and they made the playoffs last year.  Brady is no longer in the division and they're widely regarded as the favorites to win the AFC East.  Jets on the other hand were just ranked as having the worst roster in the NFL.  Yet the Jets are only 6 point dogs on the road, where in a normal situation the home team gets 3 points.

Truth, I expected the spread to be higher, but at least a TD.  

Does this spread say that the Jets aren't as bad as the writers write, that Allen is a liability, or that Darnold can even a lot of this out despite no Adams?  Or something else.  Just curious about thoughts.  

It tells me bet $100 on the Jets and make some easy money.

[Beerfish]

It says people making the line are not as stupid as the national media that each year picks a couple of teams that they fall in love with and that are going to make the big jump and they almost always fall on their asses.

[playtowinthegame]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

The “public” are stupid.  

The Jets beat the Bills twice last year and Sam Darnold has never lost in Buffalo.  Josh Allen plays his worst in high pressure situations.  The Bills have never played the role of the division favorite.

Some see it as an upset, I see it as an expectation.   

Jets 30
Bills 20

SAR I

 Jets 24 Bills 15 (all field goals)

[Biggs]

It says preseason games have little to do with the competitive advantage.

[vinny the snake]

 

34 minutes ago, bitonti said:

the Bills game was lost for several reasons 

1) lack of a PK (missed XP, missed FG, that's 4 missing points in a 1 point loss) 

2) QB playing with mono (visibly terrible, look at his stats from that game) 

3) whatever happened on defense

end of the day, for any defense to give up 17 points on the road is an above average job in 2020 NFL 

the problem with the Jets (and this has been the case for the last 10+ seasons) is that the offenses have been so anemic, 16 points feels like 30.  a defense shouldn't have to pitch shut outs every game for the team to have a chance. the offense can, ya know, score points as well. 

 

Do we know Darnold had Mono during that game or just making the assumption because Sam could never play that bad against a top 5 defense? 

[More Cowbell]

2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Point spread is Bills by 6.  They're at home, they're considered to be a well rounded team with lots of talent and they made the playoffs last year.  Brady is no longer in the division and they're widely regarded as the favorites to win the AFC East.  Jets on the other hand were just ranked as having the worst roster in the NFL.  Yet the Jets are only 6 point dogs on the road, where in a normal situation the home team gets 3 points.

Truth, I expected the spread to be higher, but at least a TD.  

Does this spread say that the Jets aren't as bad as the writers write, that Allen is a liability, or that Darnold can even a lot of this out despite no Adams?  Or something else.  Just curious about thoughts.  

It means nobody would bet on the Bills if the Jets were getting 7

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, jbt said:

Bills are a solid team but very beatable even in Buffalo.  if Sam plays whole game Jets win

 

SAR I

[bitonti]

59 minutes ago, BallinPB said:

I don't think spreads are going to have much emphasis on home field advantage being that there will be no fans in attendance.  

this is another super great point

maybe the 3 points is actually being treated like less

this has been a trend for a while - this industry standard of home field being 3 points has been slipping in popularity lately 

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-home-field-advantage/ (based on Wharton Moneyball radio show) 

 

as for the crowds or lack there of it actually might help the Jets as they won't be able to sell to 49ers fans week 2 etc 

 

35 minutes ago, vinny the snake said:

 

Do we know Darnold had Mono during that game or just making the assumption because Sam could never play that bad against a top 5 defense? 

they played the game on Sept 8 and he was diagnosed like 2 days afterwards it's not official but yes a safe assumption he wasn't himself that day 

sam darnold is not amazing but he can usually get above 200 yards passing 

 

 

[Rhg1084]

I think the Jets cover the 6 points here. Sam will have a good game and keep it close

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Point spread is Bills by 6.  They're at home, they're considered to be a well rounded team with lots of talent and they made the playoffs last year.  Brady is no longer in the division and they're widely regarded as the favorites to win the AFC East.  Jets on the other hand were just ranked as having the worst roster in the NFL.  Yet the Jets are only 6 point dogs on the road, where in a normal situation the home team gets 3 points.

Truth, I expected the spread to be higher, but at least a TD.  

Does this spread say that the Jets aren't as bad as the writers write, that Allen is a liability, or that Darnold can even a lot of this out despite no Adams?  Or something else.  Just curious about thoughts.  

I think it's fairly simple.  Nobody knows what this strange offseason, the lack of preparation and preseason games, the potential for a COVID infection of a key player, etc. will mean.  There's tons of uncertainty and that brings the spread in and makes it tighter.