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Keys to victory for Week 1


Rhg1084
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The Bills are going to expect us to try to ground and pound because of the injured WR's and new OL.  So throw the ball aggressively.

The Bills are going to expect us to blitz heavily and sneak Allen around the outside.  So don't blitz at all.

Get yardage with the pass, don't let Allen run.  

Jets 40
Bills 23

SAR I

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The Bills have a very good Defense. Based on just how putrid our offence was this training camp, expect us to struggle especially for the first quarter maybe the entire first half. Our defence has to be to the task to keep us in the game so to speak.

I expect our defence will keep them in the game...dare I say a turnover or 2?
Anyway, if we can keep it a one score game, maybe we can squeeze out a win. It’ll be interesting to gage the home game advantage or lack there, of as well.

GO JETS!

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21 minutes ago, SAR I said:

The Bills are going to expect us to try to ground and pound because of the injured WR's and new OL.  So throw the ball aggressively.

The Bills are going to expect us to blitz heavily and sneak Allen around the outside.  So don't blitz at all.

Get yardage with the pass, don't let Allen run.  

Jets 40
Bills 23

SAR I

Allen has one of the worst QB ratings in the NFL in a clean pocket. Just disciplined in lanes and keep Allen in the pocket, let him throw.

Some of you have eluded to this, but based on the current active roster, it may reveal a bit of our game plan. We’re carrying 9 DL and 4 TEs. I expect us to cycle in fresh bodies on the DL to stop the Bills rushing attack while focusing on the mid range passing attack with TEs and avoid testing the Bills CBS deep.

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2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Oliver is playing as I haven’t seen anything to suggest otherwise.

Youre absolutely right regarding Allen. Jets need to get off the field on 3rd down. We can’t have them in a 3rd and 5 and Allen runs for 7. That will kill us. 
 

Greg Williams loves blitzing the house on 3rd down and I expect Maye to play the Jamal role. Look for him to be lined up at the line of scrimmage on 3rd down going after Allen. The corners need to hold the fort down and can’t have Diggs blowing by them in single coverage.
 

Look for Ashyton Davis to play the deep single high center field position. Corners will be on single coverage with Maye in the box. Davis will be flying all over the field

If they try to play Maye in the Jamal role, he'll end up out for the year.

Hewitt or Luvu should be the spy on Allen.

I would look for 3-3-5 or 4-2-5 alignments most of the game with Davis getting a ton of snaps and a lot of blitzing from the safeties.

The Bills pass rush is going to be even better than last year.  Have to see how banged up Levi Wallace and Josh Norman are - potentially a lucky break if they are hindered.  Lots of 3 TE sets with max protect and use of more athletic OL with lots of screens.  Cant envision much success running the ball, if anything will have to try to set up the run with the pass.

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Allen running is always a concern, but he can actually throw the ball. He's good on Intermediate routes. He had a 64.7% completion percentage on those throws which makes him one of the more accurate intermediate passers in the league. His major accuracy problems were in the deep game of over 30 air yards (and the short game to a lesser extent). 

The Bills also acquired Diggs...who is one of the best intermediate route receivers in the league. So I'd hope the Jets don't discount his passing ability as much as people on this forum do. 

The gameplan on Allen is pressure (luckily, Williams is good at pressure schemes). He's one of the worst passers in the league when pressured. He will beat you with some runs, but you can't give him the time to let those intermediate routes develop. If you get in his face before they develop, he tries to make something happen which is when he takes big sacks, throws really bad balls, or occasionally pulls a run out his arse for a 1st down. 

 

Conversely, the Jets need to run the ball to keep pressure off Darnold. The Bills defense was great last year and may even be better this year. They look to have improved on their pass rush from last season. There were a couple games last season where their defense didn't seem able to stop the run at all. Gase is also going to have to move the pocket around and design some plays that move Darnold around. 

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

Look at the game tape from the first half of week 1 last season.

Repeat.

Don't get injured.

Don't get mono.

 

You mean when the Jets offense had 3 turnovers & the D’s pick 6 to work with, and scored all of what, like 8 points? Jets should’ve been up at least 21-0 at half with what the D provided the offense. 

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4 minutes ago, JetsLife said:

You mean when the Jets offense had 3 turnovers & the D’s pick 6 to work with, and scored all of what, like 8 points? Jets should’ve been up at least 21-0 at half with what the D provided the offense. 

You mean like when our quarterback had a 105 degree fever, was a hit away from a ruptured spleen, and had to be hospitalized immediately after the game with mononucleosis?

There's a reason our O was inept Week 1 last year and it had nothing to do with coaching or the offense.  Had everything to do with a sick quarterback.

SAR I

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5 minutes ago, JetsLife said:

You mean when the Jets offense had 3 turnovers & the D’s pick 6 to work with, and scored all of what, like 8 points? Jets should’ve been up at least 21-0 at half with what the D provided the offense. 

Am I wrong or if Vedvik hits the XP and field goal we’re up 20-0 no?

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1 hour ago, SAR I said:

The Bills are going to expect us to try to ground and pound because of the injured WR's and new OL.  So throw the ball aggressively.

The Bills are going to expect us to blitz heavily and sneak Allen around the outside.  So don't blitz at all.

Get yardage with the pass, don't let Allen run.  

Jets 40
Bills 23

SAR I

Love your optimism but 40 points? Lol. 
Bills gave up 16.5

No way in hell we’re aggressively throwing the ball. I’m not saying we won’t go downfield but I think we try to wear the Bills down with overloads, planned roll outs, back shoulders & get more aggressive as the game goes on & especially when we cross the 50. 
I definitely see Gase being aggressive on short yardage without Star Lotulolei in the middle in goal line thinking 4 downs. 
Bills like to blitz & both Bell and Gore are good at picking them up to get Sam some time. 

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2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Love your optimism but 40 points? Lol. 
Bills gave up 16.5

No way in hell we’re aggressively throwing the ball. I’m not saying we won’t go downfield but I think we try to wear the Bills down with overloads, planned roll outs, back shoulders & get more aggressive as the game goes on & especially when we cross the 50. 
I definitely see Gase being aggressive on short yardage without Star Lotulolei in the middle in goal line thinking 4 downs. 
Bills like to blitz & both Bell and Gore are good at picking them up to get Sam some time. 

Jets offense only needs to score 26 the traditional way.  Allen gift wraps the rest.

SAR I

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Also, let’s make their CBs have to tackle our RBs & TEs. 
Please, please, please have Mims turn out to be a monster! 
How long has it been since a Jet WR got the ball in space & straight armed a CB & went for a long stroll down the sideline? 
Also let’s hope Perriman is still on a roll 😮.

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25 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Jets offense only needs to score 26 the traditional way.  Allen gift wraps the rest.

SAR I

You do make a great point about the Bills schedule. 
Their defense faced 11 games vs teams with the top 10 worst offenses in football. 
outside of those games they lost to the Patriots twice, The Eagles, they beat the Titans 14-7 early in the season when Mariota was starting, and beat the Cowboys but so did the Jets. 
They beat Carolina (Back up QB), and a horrible Defense. 
It was not an impressive feat getting to the playoffs at all! 
 

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4 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Gase should let Sammy go up tempo with a lot of misdirection and designed rollouts. Sammy is much better when moving. If I remember correctly we are moving to a zone blocking scheme this year correct? 

I thought we are going with something similar to 49ers. Is Wesco our Juszczyk

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ninernoise.com/2019/11/03/49ers-breaking-kyle-shanahan-offense-halfway-2019/amp/

One thing which differentiates Shanahan from pretty much the rest of the NFL is the emphasis he places on having a fullback. Bringing in Kyle Juszczyk in free agency from the Ravens back in 2017 has certainly paid dividends.

Another thing which Shanahan emphasizes is versatility. Most fullbacks act solely as blockers in the run game. Therefore, if you put your fullback on the field and they don’t have the same versatility as Juszczyk, the defense will know that you’re running ball.

When the Niners run the ball, it’s generally from either the I-formation or from split back. Both of these formations generally have two running backs on the field, and offenses are less likely to pass with two tailbacks in a formation. However, the 49ers have many plays designed to pass out of these formations, a key reason why pass-catching ability is a key facet for running backs in the system.

Great call on the misdirection, that is something that we cannot use enough as Sam is the rare QB who can actually role out to both directions.  Edmunds and Milano are fast LBs, so anything we can do to slow them down will be beneficial as the game goes on.

In general there are a few things in our favor, which is why we led them in week 1 last year. 

1.  The Bills OL is not very strong. Sure they paid Dawkins but he is far from an elite player. Morse is fine as is Quentin Spain, but GW has to go after Winters every single play.  GW and every DL should know winter's weakness and I would think Fatuski can literally throw him around all game.  We have to crush that matchup.

2. Allen isnt accurate and that didnt change this offseason.  Looking at the defense overall, we should be playing 3 safeties along with Poole as a slot CB/OLB to keep or DBs fresh and hopefully can bait Allen into at least 1 int.

3.  I get that our team doesnt have a ton of big names, but we have depth across the defense and the Bills dont have a ton of depth defensively.  Gase HAS to do whatever he can to wear down the Bills defense while GW rotates our DL and secondary to keep everyone fresh.  These guys have not played even a quarter of real football and  conditioning is gonna be a huge factor.  QW-Foley-Anderson and McClendon-Shephard-Phillips can be swapped out every other series if necessary and should have a big advantage in the 4th quarter.

No big breakdowns down the field, make Allen actually string together drives where he needs 3/4 big completions and he will inevitably struggle.  McDermott is a smart coach, but IMO this Bills team is really overrated and while Diggs is an obvious upgrade, they dont have the talent at QB or RB to put up 30 on this defense.

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7 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Great call on the misdirection, that is something that we cannot use enough as Sam is the rare QB who can actually role out to both directions.  Edmunds and Milano are fast LBs, so anything we can do to slow them down will be beneficial as the game goes on.

In general there are a few things in our favor, which is why we led them in week 1 last year. 

1.  The Bills OL is not very strong. Sure they paid Dawkins but he is far from an elite player. Morse is fine as is Quentin Spain, but GW has to go after Winters every single play.  GW and every DL should know winter's weakness and I would think Fatuski can literally throw him around all game.  We have to crush that matchup.

2. Allen isnt accurate and that didnt change this offseason.  Looking at the defense overall, we should be playing 3 safeties along with Poole as a slot CB/OLB to keep or DBs fresh and hopefully can bait Allen into at least 1 int.

3.  I get that our team doesnt have a ton of big names, but we have depth across the defense and the Bills dont have a ton of depth defensively.  Gase HAS to do whatever he can to wear down the Bills defense while GW rotates our DL and secondary to keep everyone fresh.  These guys have not played even a quarter of real football and  conditioning is gonna be a huge factor.  QW-Foley-Anderson and McClendon-Shephard-Phillips can be swapped out every other series if necessary and should have a big advantage in the 4th quarter.

No big breakdowns down the field, make Allen actually string together drives where he needs 3/4 big completions and he will inevitably struggle.  McDermott is a smart coach, but IMO this Bills team is really overrated and while Diggs is an obvious upgrade, they dont have the talent at QB or RB to put up 30 on this defense.

Pressure, Pressure, Pressure on Allen. 
Bring pressure from different areas all day. Allen will crumble. 

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1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

Pressure, Pressure, Pressure on Allen. 
Bring pressure from different areas all day. Allen will crumble. 

You want to blitz him?  Why?

Allen is not great getting through his progressions and making accurate throws. What he is good at is running and hitting throws down the field when the play breaks down.  Id be rushing 4 and dropping 7 into disguised zone all day to limit big plays and hopefully get a turnover.

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22 minutes ago, BCJet said:

You want to blitz him?  Why?

Allen is not great getting through his progressions and making accurate throws. What he is good at is running and hitting throws down the field when the play breaks down.  Id be rushing 4 and dropping 7 into disguised zone all day to limit big plays and hopefully get a turnover.

If you’re disguising zone coverage, you can also disguise blitz packages like they often did with Adams. You can rush 4 but bring a safety blitz or a CB off the edge. The issue I have with 7 in zone is that creates a lot of underneath space to sit down in. Makes life easier for Allen if there’s no pressure to speed up his progressions.

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The Bills have a solid team but they were xtra lucky last season. Mosely's injury was their first lucky break. They had many more. The ball bounced their way a lot last season - so we need that to stop. Secondly we need to flat out stop their running game forcing them to pass and then we need an interception or 2. How can we expect much from the Jets offense? Darnold will have to play an almost perfect game - no misses when we have a man open. Gonna be a tough game to win.

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3 hours ago, SAR I said:

You mean like when our quarterback had a 105 degree fever, was a hit away from a ruptured spleen, and had to be hospitalized immediately after the game with mononucleosis?

There's a reason our O was inept Week 1 last year and it had nothing to do with coaching or the offense.  Had everything to do with a sick quarterback.

SAR I

If you believe this first part to be true, and they put his LIFE at risk, everyone should have been fired. That’s ridiculous. 

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8 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

If you believe this first part to be true, and they put his LIFE at risk, everyone should have been fired. That’s ridiculous. 

At the time, no one knew he was sick.  Immediately after the game he was seen by a doctor and diagnosed.

SAR I

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