Jetsfan80 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 https://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory-every-nfl-team-s-chance-to-make-playoffs-as-of-week-1 Game Theory: Every team's chance to make playoffs as of Week 1 NFL analyst Cynthia Frelund projects every NFL team's chance of making it to the postseason at the start of the 2020 season. 1. Chiefs: 80 % 2. Ravens: 79 % 3. Bills: 75 % 4. 49ers: 74 % 5. Titans: 74 % 6. Saints: 73 % 7. Steelers: 71 % 8. Packers: 70 % 9. Bucs: 70 % 10. Cowboys: 69 % 11. Eagles: 68 % 12. Colts: 62 % 13. Cardinals: 57 % 14. Vikings: 57 % 15. Patriots: 57 % 16. Browns: 51 % 17. Seahawks: 50 % 18. Rams: 47 % 19. *Broncos: 39 % 20. Chargers: 39 % 21. Falcons: 18 % 22. Raiders: 17 % 23. Texans: 16 % 24. Jets: 14 % 25. Bears: 12 % 26. Lions: 11 % 27. Panthers: 10 % 28. Giants: 10 % 29. Dolphins: 9 % 30. Bengals: 9 % 31. Washington: 8 % 32. Jaguars: 8 % * Prior to Von Miller injury 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Beerfish Posted September 9, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 9, 2020 The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. 14 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet_Engine1 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 But I vow that if the Jets A. Win 9 games or B. Earn a playoff spot. I will fulfill my destiny by doing a St. Baldricks Fund Raiser and live stream my head shaving for all to see. At 50 years old, this would possibly be a great sacrifice. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted September 9, 2020 Author Share Posted September 9, 2020 So based on this model, this would be the playoff picture: AFC 1. Ravens/Chiefs (AFC North/AFC West champs) 3. Bills (AFC East champs) 4. Titans (AFC South champs) 5. Steelers (Wild Card) 6. Colts (Wild Card) 7. Patriots (Wild Card) Just missed: Browns, Chargers NFC 1. 49ers/Saints (NFC West/NFC South champs) 3. Packers (NFC North champs) 4. Cowboys (NFC East champs) 5. Buccaneers (Wild Card) 6. Eagles (Wild Card) 7. Cardinals (Wild Card) Just missed: Vikings, Seahawks, Rams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted September 9, 2020 Author Share Posted September 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. Absolutely. But in this case I imagine their high % comes by virtue of the expectation they'll win an easy division. It isn't necessarily suggesting that they're truly the 3rd best team in the AFC. And their stature would be suspect even if they did end up with the 3-seed; going 6-0 or 5-1 against a weak division would earn them a strong seed but wouldn't do them any favors in a playoff matchup against the Steelers or Colts, a game I'd expect them to lose. The Titans, meanwhile, would have had to grind out the AFC South against the Colts and Texans, and would also likely be a stronger team than the Bills in this instance. Regardless, its never been more important to earn the 1-seed thanks to the new playoff format. All that will matter out of the AFC is who finishes first, whether that be KC, Baltimore, or a surprise team. I give about 3-4 teams in the AFC other than KC/Baltimore a slim chance to take that spot (Titans, Colts, Steelers, Texans), but Buffalo would not be one of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark78 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 What are her qualifications to make this declaration? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jet_Engine1 Posted September 9, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mark78 said: What are her qualifications to make this declaration? The court accepts the witness testimony as expert under a Daubert challenge ruling 2 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted September 9, 2020 Author Share Posted September 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Mark78 said: What are her qualifications to make this declaration? Cynthia Frelund NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund joined NFL Network in 2016 as an analytics expert, providing her unique insight into the game on NFL Fantasy LIVE, GameDay Morning, and more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32EBoozer Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said: But I vow that if the Jets A. Win 9 games or B. Earn a playoff spot. I will fulfill my destiny by doing a St. Baldricks Fund Raiser and live stream my head shaving for all to see. At 50 years old, this would possibly be a great sacrifice. Or then again very little sacrifice 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. Yeah I don't get it. They were just marginally better than us and had a lot of breaks go there way. They had a very good defense but played teams at the right time too. They are as overhyped as I can remember a team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark78 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said: The court accepts the witness testimony as expert under a Daubert challenge ruling Convincing argument! Thanks for putting me in my place. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecmic Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. If 75% playoff odds are vastly too high, what’d be a more realistic number? 50%? Less? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Bruce Harper Posted September 9, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 9, 2020 The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.I was on a Bills site today and most of the debate was about whether the Bills’ coaching staff would permit the team to run up the score against the Jets or whether they would just win by a couple of touchdowns. I hope these guys are in for a surprise. Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. Why? They made the playoffs last year and they added some receiver help. I can see them making the post season and bring one and done again. Four times in a row even. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Bills at 75%? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA SAR I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, The Crusher said: Why? They made the playoffs last year and they added some receiver help. I can see them making the post season and bring one and done again. Four times in a row even. They beat 1 team with a winning record in the entire Allen era. That’s why. SAR I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 9 hours ago, SAR I said: They beat 1 team with a winning record in the entire Allen era. That’s why. SAR I It worked last year and it could work this year. Gonna be a lot of bad teams to beat up on. I do agree they will lose in the playoffs but I think they have a greater than average chance to get in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurnleyJet Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Yeah but what happens when the Bills Running back gets injured? - Urrr I mean Quarterback. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 9 hours ago, The Crusher said: It worked last year and it could work this year. Gonna be a lot of bad teams to be up on. I do agree they will lose in the playoffs but I think they have a greater than average chance to get in. Certainly. My point is that the Bills and Jets are the same team. Our D is very good, theirs is better but not by much. ST's about the same. Coaching about the same. But we have the better quarterback and that makes a huge difference, equalizes their defensive advantage. So we have just as much of a greater than average chance to get in as the Bills do, and all the hype that the Bills are getting the Jets will soon be getting when we prove ourselves, should be as early as 4pm on Sunday. SAR I 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 6 hours ago, BurnleyJet said: Yeah but what happens when the Bills Running back gets injured? - Urrr I mean Quarterback. When he does, and its inevitable, that's it for the Bills. Just like the Ravens. With Lamar Jackson they should go 14-2. Without him, they're 7-9 at best. We've seen this before with the Vick Falcons, the RGIII Redskins, etc. etc. These 'generational' quarterbacks get themselves hurt and their teams suddenly look very ordinary without them. SAR I 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggs Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 The Bills schedule is brutal. They have a much better overall roster than the NY Jets. The Jets have a QB who can throw the football and hit the side of a barn. We should have very similar records. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, SAR I said: Certainly. My point is that the Bills and Jets are the same team. Our D is very good, theirs is better but not by much. ST's about the same. Coaching about the same. But we have the better quarterback and that makes a huge difference, equalizes their defensive advantage. So we have just as much of a greater than average chance to get in as the Bills do, and all the hype that the Bills are getting the Jets will soon be getting when we prove ourselves, should be as early as 4pm on Sunday. SAR I Buffalo offensive weapons are a M6 compared to our 3 series. Yes, I would take Sam over Josh but that’s about it on offense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EM31 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 10 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said: The court accepts the witness testimony as expert under a Daubert challenge ruling Amply qualified. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibby Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 10 hours ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. Totally agree- they probably will be a playoff team but most outlets have them top 3- top 5 team. They’re not that. 9-10 win team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenReaper Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 12 hours ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. Watch how discussions will change around here when Jets win this opener. They can do it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungaman Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 I wonder why the calculations take such a leap between 20. Chargers: 39 % and 21. Falcons: 18 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Crusher said: Buffalo offensive weapons are a M6 compared to our 3 series. Yes, I would take Sam over Josh but that’s about it on offense. Jets are Top 5 in the NFL against the run. Bills receivers don't matter when their quarterback is a running back. M6 with a driver still on a learner's permit. Sam is the better quarterback. Better quarterbacks often uplift and lead their inferior-on-paper teams to resounding victories. SAR I 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, EM31 said: Amply qualified. Adriana? She got whacked when she opened her mouth and said the wrong thing to the wrong people. SAR I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, SAR I said: Jets are Top 5 in the NFL against the run. Bills receivers don't matter when their quarterback is a running back. M6 with a driver still on a learner's permit. Sam is the better quarterback. Better quarterbacks often uplift and lead their inferior-on-paper teams to resounding victories. SAR I We haven’t played a game yet. Might want to let them play before announcing them a top 5 running game. If you do want to use last years season as a measure then might want to recall what happen to us after losing CJ Mosley the first game. I do hope he feels safe this Sunday. Be well CJ Mosley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Crusher said: We haven’t played a game yet. Might want to let them play before announcing them a top 5 running game. If you do want to use last years season as a measure then might want to recall what happen to us after losing CJ Mosley the first game. I do hope he feels safe this Sunday. Be well CJ Mosley. The Jets were Top 5 in the NFL against the run after Mosley went down. The change this year is if Maye and a cast of others can equal Adams' production in stopping the run, but we're getting back several starters who didn't play much last year as our outrageous injuries piled up and we have Gregg Williams who is one of the best in the league in coaching up new guys. Buffalo's secondary is banged up. Sam should be able to complete safe passes to Crowder, Hogan, Herndon, and Griffin all day, look for a lot of TE and slot production with the outside speedsters Mims and Perriman doing a lot of downfield blocking. Short, quick routes keep the DL off of our OL and Darnold, I'd run a bunch of hurry-up too. SAR I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevisIsland610 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 11 hours ago, Beerfish said: The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny. It's amazing all the hype for a team that hasn't won a playoff game in a quarter century. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, RevisIsland610 said: It's amazing all the hype for a team that hasn't won a playoff game in a quarter century. It's the AFC East media narrative out in full force, been this way for decades: Patriots - So pretty, so perfect, so professional. Bills - Blue collar fanbase deserving of a winner. Jets - Second banana to be shamed and ridiculed. Dolphins - Play nice, don't want to upset the Florida market. The Patriots are portrayed as James Bond, the Bills as Rambo, the Jets as Kick Ass. SAR I 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, SAR I said: It's the AFC East media narrative out in full force, been this way for decades: Patriots - So pretty, so perfect, so professional. Bills - Blue collar fanbase deserving of a winner. Jets - Second banana to be shamed and ridiculed. Dolphins - Play nice, don't want to upset the Florida market. The Patriots are portrayed as James Bond, the Bills as Rambo, the Jets as Kick Ass. SAR I James Bond never paid for sex. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EM31 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, nycdan said: James Bond never paid for sex. No tape? It never happened Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, SAR I said: The Jets were Top 5 in the NFL against the run after Mosley went down. The change this year is if Maye and a cast of others can equal Adams' production in stopping the run, but we're getting back several starters who didn't play much last year as our outrageous injuries piled up and we have Gregg Williams who is one of the best in the league in coaching up new guys. Buffalo's secondary is banged up. Sam should be able to complete safe passes to Crowder, Hogan, Herndon, and Griffin all day, look for a lot of TE and slot production with the outside speedsters Mims and Perriman doing a lot of downfield blocking. Short, quick routes keep the DL off of our OL and Darnold, I'd run a bunch of hurry-up too. SAR I That all sounds great and all of obviously like that to happen. 'Im concerned about our O line gelling after not much time together. yet, they got their asses kicked in intra squad scrimmages so that's not good, yet suggest our D is what you think it is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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