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Frelund: Every team's chances at making the playoffs

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https://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory-every-nfl-team-s-chance-to-make-playoffs-as-of-week-1

Game Theory: Every team's chance to make playoffs as of Week 1

NFL analyst Cynthia Frelund projects every NFL team's chance of making it to the postseason at the start of the 2020 season.

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1.  Chiefs:  80 %

2.  Ravens:  79 %

3.  Bills:  75 %

4.  49ers:  74 %

5.  Titans:  74 %

6.  Saints:  73 %

7.  Steelers:  71 %

8.  Packers:  70 %

9.  Bucs:  70 %

10.  Cowboys:  69 %

11.  Eagles:  68 %

12.  Colts:  62 %

13.  Cardinals:  57 %

14.  Vikings:  57 %

15.  Patriots:  57 %

16.  Browns:  51 %

17.  Seahawks:  50 %

18.  Rams:  47 %

19.  *Broncos:  39 %

20.  Chargers:  39 %

21.  Falcons:  18 %

22.  Raiders:  17 %

23.  Texans:  16 %

24.  Jets:  14 %

25.  Bears:  12 %

26.  Lions:  11 %

27.  Panthers:  10 %

28.  Giants:  10 %

29.  Dolphins:  9 %

30.  Bengals:  9 %

31.  Washington:  8 %

32.  Jaguars:  8 %

 

* Prior to Von Miller injury

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survival rate GIF

 

But I vow that if the Jets 

A. Win 9 games

or

B. Earn a playoff spot.

 

I will fulfill my destiny by doing a St. Baldricks Fund Raiser and live stream my head shaving for all to see.

At 50 years old, this would possibly be a great sacrifice. 

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So based on this model, this would be the playoff picture:

AFC

1.  Ravens/Chiefs (AFC North/AFC West champs)

3.  Bills (AFC East champs)

4.  Titans (AFC South champs)

5.  Steelers (Wild Card)

6.  Colts (Wild Card)

7.  Patriots (Wild Card)

Just missed:  Browns, Chargers

 

NFC

1.  49ers/Saints (NFC West/NFC South champs)

3.  Packers (NFC North champs)

4.  Cowboys (NFC East champs)

5.  Buccaneers (Wild Card)

6.  Eagles (Wild Card)

7.  Cardinals (Wild Card)

Just missed:  Vikings, Seahawks, Rams

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12 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

Absolutely.  But in this case I imagine their high % comes by virtue of the expectation they'll win an easy division.  It isn't necessarily suggesting that they're truly the 3rd best team in the AFC. 

And their stature would be suspect even if they did end up with the 3-seed; going 6-0 or 5-1 against a weak division would earn them a strong seed but wouldn't do them any favors in a playoff matchup against the Steelers or Colts, a game I'd expect them to lose.  The Titans, meanwhile, would have had to grind out the AFC South against the Colts and Texans, and would also likely be a stronger team than the Bills in this instance.

Regardless, its never been more important to earn the 1-seed thanks to the new playoff format.  All that will matter out of the AFC is who finishes first, whether that be KC, Baltimore, or a surprise team.  I give about 3-4 teams in the AFC other than KC/Baltimore a slim chance to take that spot (Titans, Colts, Steelers, Texans), but Buffalo would not be one of them.

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8 minutes ago, Mark78 said:

What are her qualifications to make this declaration?

Cynthia Frelund

NFL Network Analytics Expert

Cynthia Frelund joined NFL Network in 2016 as an analytics expert, providing her unique insight into the game on NFL Fantasy LIVE, GameDay Morning, and more.

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27 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

survival rate GIF

 

But I vow that if the Jets 

A. Win 9 games

or

B. Earn a playoff spot.

 

I will fulfill my destiny by doing a St. Baldricks Fund Raiser and live stream my head shaving for all to see.

At 50 years old, this would possibly be a great sacrifice. 

bald george costanza GIF by HULU
 

Or then again very little sacrifice 

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34 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

Yeah I don't get it. They were just marginally better than us and had a lot of breaks go there way. They had a very good defense but played teams at the right time too. They are as overhyped as I can remember a team

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26 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

20200908_223643.thumb.jpg.ebd706e1791430e65e00ac8cb0418b9d.jpg

The court accepts the witness testimony as expert under a Daubert challenge ruling  

 

Convincing argument!  Thanks for putting me in my place.

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

If 75% playoff odds are vastly too high, what’d be a more realistic number? 50%? Less?

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

Why? They made the playoffs last year and they added some receiver help. I can see them making the post season and bring one and done again. Four times in a row even. 

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Bills at 75%?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

SAR I

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23 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Why? They made the playoffs last year and they added some receiver help. I can see them making the post season and bring one and done again. Four times in a row even. 

They beat 1 team with a winning record in the entire Allen era.  

That’s why. 

SAR I

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9 hours ago, SAR I said:

They beat 1 team with a winning record in the entire Allen era.  

That’s why. 

SAR I

It worked last year and it could work this year. Gonna be a lot of bad teams to beat up on. I do agree they will lose in the playoffs but I think they have a greater than average chance to get in. 

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Yeah but what happens when the Bills Running back gets injured? - Urrr I mean Quarterback.

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9 hours ago, The Crusher said:

It worked last year and it could work this year. Gonna be a lot of bad teams to be up on. I do agree they will lose in the playoffs but I think they have a greater than average chance to get in. 

Certainly.

My point is that the Bills and Jets are the same team.  Our D is very good, theirs is better but not by much.  ST's about the same.  Coaching about the same.  But we have the better quarterback and that makes a huge difference, equalizes their defensive advantage.

So we have just as much of a greater than average chance to get in as the Bills do, and all the hype that the Bills are getting the Jets will soon be getting when we prove ourselves, should be as early as 4pm on Sunday.

SAR I

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6 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

Yeah but what happens when the Bills Running back gets injured? - Urrr I mean Quarterback.

When he does, and its inevitable, that's it for the Bills.

Just like the Ravens.  With Lamar Jackson they should go 14-2.  Without him, they're 7-9 at best.  We've seen this before with the Vick Falcons, the RGIII Redskins, etc. etc.  These 'generational' quarterbacks get themselves hurt and their teams suddenly look very ordinary without them.

SAR I

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The Bills schedule is brutal.  They have a much better overall roster than the NY Jets.  The Jets have a QB who can throw the football and hit the side of a barn.  We should have very similar records.  

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10 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Certainly.

My point is that the Bills and Jets are the same team.  Our D is very good, theirs is better but not by much.  ST's about the same.  Coaching about the same.  But we have the better quarterback and that makes a huge difference, equalizes their defensive advantage.

So we have just as much of a greater than average chance to get in as the Bills do, and all the hype that the Bills are getting the Jets will soon be getting when we prove ourselves, should be as early as 4pm on Sunday.

SAR I

Buffalo offensive weapons are a M6 compared to our 3 series. Yes, I would take Sam over Josh but that’s about it on offense. 

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10 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

20200908_223643.thumb.jpg.ebd706e1791430e65e00ac8cb0418b9d.jpg

The court accepts the witness testimony as expert under a Daubert challenge ruling  

 

Amply qualified.

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10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

Totally agree- they probably will be a playoff team but most outlets have them top 3- top 5 team. They’re not that. 9-10 win team.

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12 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

Watch how discussions will change around here when Jets win this opener.

They can do it!

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I wonder why the calculations take such a leap between 

20.  Chargers:  39 %

and 

21.  Falcons:  18 % 

 

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5 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Buffalo offensive weapons are a M6 compared to our 3 series. Yes, I would take Sam over Josh but that’s about it on offense. 

Jets are Top 5 in the NFL against the run.  Bills receivers don't matter when their quarterback is a running back.  M6 with a driver still on a learner's permit.

Sam is the better quarterback.  Better quarterbacks often uplift and lead their inferior-on-paper teams to resounding victories.

SAR I

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9 minutes ago, EM31 said:

Amply qualified.

sopranos-adriana.jpg

Adriana?  She got whacked when she opened her mouth and said the wrong thing to the wrong people.

SAR I

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1 minute ago, SAR I said:

Jets are Top 5 in the NFL against the run.  Bills receivers don't matter when their quarterback is a running back.  M6 with a driver still on a learner's permit.

Sam is the better quarterback.  Better quarterbacks often uplift and lead their inferior-on-paper teams to resounding victories.

SAR I

We haven’t played a game yet. Might want to let them play before announcing them a top 5 running game. If you do want to use last years season as a measure then might want to recall what happen to us after losing CJ Mosley the first game. I do hope he feels safe this Sunday. Be well CJ Mosley. 

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5 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

We haven’t played a game yet. Might want to let them play before announcing them a top 5 running game. If you do want to use last years season as a measure then might want to recall what happen to us after losing CJ Mosley the first game. I do hope he feels safe this Sunday. Be well CJ Mosley. 

The Jets were Top 5 in the NFL against the run after Mosley went down.  The change this year is if Maye and a cast of others can equal Adams' production in stopping the run, but we're getting back several starters who didn't play much last year as our outrageous injuries piled up and we have Gregg Williams who is one of the best in the league in coaching up new guys.

Buffalo's secondary is banged up.  Sam should be able to complete safe passes to Crowder, Hogan, Herndon, and Griffin all day, look for a lot of TE and slot production with the outside speedsters Mims and Perriman doing a lot of downfield blocking.  Short, quick routes keep the DL off of our OL and Darnold, I'd run a bunch of hurry-up too.

SAR I

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11 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The bills are being so vastly overrated by the experts it isn't funny.

It's amazing all the hype for a team that hasn't won a playoff game in a quarter century. 

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14 minutes ago, RevisIsland610 said:

It's amazing all the hype for a team that hasn't won a playoff game in a quarter century. 

It's the AFC East media narrative out in full force, been this way for decades:

Patriots - So pretty, so perfect, so professional.

Bills - Blue collar fanbase deserving of a winner.

Jets - Second banana to be shamed and ridiculed.

Dolphins - Play nice, don't want to upset the Florida market.

The Patriots are portrayed as James Bond, the Bills as Rambo, the Jets as Kick Ass.

SAR I

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7 minutes ago, SAR I said:

It's the AFC East media narrative out in full force, been this way for decades:

Patriots - So pretty, so perfect, so professional.

Bills - Blue collar fanbase deserving of a winner.

Jets - Second banana to be shamed and ridiculed.

Dolphins - Play nice, don't want to upset the Florida market.

The Patriots are portrayed as James Bond, the Bills as Rambo, the Jets as Kick Ass.

SAR I

James Bond never paid for sex.

Arrest warrant to be issued for Robert Kraft - YouTube

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31 minutes ago, nycdan said:

James Bond never paid for sex.

Arrest warrant to be issued for Robert Kraft - YouTube

No tape? It never happened

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1 hour ago, SAR I said:

The Jets were Top 5 in the NFL against the run after Mosley went down.  The change this year is if Maye and a cast of others can equal Adams' production in stopping the run, but we're getting back several starters who didn't play much last year as our outrageous injuries piled up and we have Gregg Williams who is one of the best in the league in coaching up new guys.

Buffalo's secondary is banged up.  Sam should be able to complete safe passes to Crowder, Hogan, Herndon, and Griffin all day, look for a lot of TE and slot production with the outside speedsters Mims and Perriman doing a lot of downfield blocking.  Short, quick routes keep the DL off of our OL and Darnold, I'd run a bunch of hurry-up too.

SAR I

That all sounds great and all of obviously like that to happen. 'Im concerned about our O line gelling after not much time together. yet, they got their asses kicked in intra squad scrimmages so that's not good, yet suggest our D is what you think it is. 

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