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Frelund: Every team's chances at making the playoffs

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this list just doesn't seem right.  how did the rams fall so far?  weren't the up and coming darlings about two seasons ago?  and then putting the niners up so high make little sense.  they have to play the seahawks and rams and there's a chance the cardinals might be an okay team this season.

the bills? if allen can run they have a chance otherwise they're staring at 8-8 or 7-9.

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14 minutes ago, rangerous said:

this list just doesn't seem right.  how did the rams fall so far?  weren't the up and coming darlings about two seasons ago? 

That was before they paid a mediocre Jared Goff $33.5M per season and expended heavy draft capital on a disappointing Jalen Ramsey.

Their roster is actually still pretty good but their window is already firmly shut.  Escaping the NFC West with a wild card spot, even with 3 wild cards as opposed to 2, will prove highly difficult for them moving forward.

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The Browns are at 51%?  It isn't even clear if Baker is any good and they only went 6-10 last year.

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26 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That was before they paid a mediocre Jared Goff $33.5M per season and expended heavy draft capital on a disappointing Jalen Ramsey.

Their roster is actually still pretty good but their window is already firmly shut.  Escaping the NFC West with a wild card spot, even with 3 wild cards as opposed to 2, will prove highly difficult for them moving forward.

yep.  and i can see the same with the niners.  garapollo is not as good as all of the early hype made out and now they are without wr's.  plus the seahawks are going to be good and the cardinals might just make some noise.

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Sar 1, at first i found your posting homerish and off base.... now i honestly just feel kinda bad for you. Sunday could be a terrible day in Sar 1 land. Why set yourself up like that? Even before a game has been played you make yourself feel better by denouncing something by making excuses. Your fellow boardies must love you....

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2 hours ago, SAR I said:

It's the AFC East media narrative out in full force, been this way for decades:

Patriots - So pretty, so perfect, so professional.

Bills - Blue collar fanbase deserving of a winner.

Jets - Second banana to be shamed and ridiculed.

Dolphins - Play nice, don't want to upset the Florida market.

The Patriots are portrayed as James Bond, the Bills as Rambo, the Jets as Kick Ass.

SAR I

Kick Ass (Movie) vs Black Death (Movie) - Battles - Comic Vine

Oh the pain is coming!!!!

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The Bills start the season as a playoff caliber team with the most continuity from last season of any other team in the league. So, while teams like, say The Jets, start the season with an entirely new O-line, who has barely practiced together, among other roster changes, the Bills will be walking onto the field fully dialed in.

On offense, the Bills will have two changes to their starting roster that are both immediate, day-one upgrades in Stephon Diggs, and Daryl Williams. Diggs is unquestionably the best WR in the division, and Williams is an all-pro O-linesman. 

On defense, the Bills remain as deep as they were last season. With the attrition experienced by the Pats*, they are clearly the best D in the division, and remain top three in the league. With the additions of Vernon Butler, Quinten Jefferson, and Mario Addison, the rotation on the D-line will exhaust opposing O-lines, and their secondary only got better with Josh Norman.

My advice to Jets fans: stop whining about how the Bills are "over-rated," (they're not) and Sunday might hurt less.

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The Bills secondary depth will be tested early as well. Could be a good time for Sam to test it. I dunno.... i fully understand and expect some homerism, ESPECIALLY on an opposing teams message board. But outside of some truly (refershingly) objective Jets fans - there is something deeper. There is always a disdain for Bills/Jets between their fans. But now that Bills fans want so badly for the NFL to see what they do in their FQB and Jets fans dont want to admit or think maybe they drafted the wrong guy... its gotten worse.

If the Jets loose, Im sure SAR will be here spouting about how the Bills won in spite of Allen and if Darnold was QB for BUF they would have won by even more etc and I guess whatever you need to think to make yourself feel better is fine BUT I think the reality is each of these qbs still have progression ahead of them and neither are a finished product.  There have been a lot of knocks on Allen here and many are warranted but others are just plain silly. The kid didnt have anywhere near the amount of snaps the others did in college and the qlty of those snaps he did receive were of a much lower caliber competition on top of that. Anywhere he has needed to progress between yr 1 and yr 2, he has AND there was an improvement both statistically and with the eye test.

That pitch in the playoffs last year keeps getting brought up... was it dumb? Yep! But it was just a kid who wanted it really Bad trying to make something happen. That seems to be a big knock on him in that maybe he cares too much. Is that really a bad thing? I think it shows drive and desire to get better and thats why hes won the hearts of Bills fans. People like that however seem to keep getting better. By all accounts hes impressed at camp, so we'll see this year. 

Conversely, Darnold just needs some consistency so he CAN grow. Its not his fault its been a circus around him and he has managed to keep his head above water and impress here and there in the process. Hopefully for the jets this is the beginning of the carousel stopping spinning and he can build on the success hes had in his 1st 2 years and step up and make the Jets a suprise. 

 

Bottom line is both these qbs are still young, promising, and have career arcs on the upswing.  If SAR feels the need to dog the Bills RB, fine. But calling him and RB and rehashing knocks from when he was drafted such as he just runs and cant throw is not only wrong, but plain lazy. Outside of some bitter/jealous/dissappinted jets fans, that isnt the general consensus and i think youd enjoy it more if you were open to the possibility both could be good. I dont get hating on a team bc is is perceived as the better team. Its the equivalent of a Bills fan who just wants to preach about how all jackson does is run and how defenses figured him out last year and he cant pass and blah blah blah. All that is, is an uninformed Bills fan upset his team had a shot at Lamar and they passed OR jealous that Baltimores QB came along faster than theirs. Its just silly. Be better than that and enjoy 2 good young qbs who hopefully will be playing good exciting games against each other for years to come!!

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41 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

The Bills start the season as a playoff caliber team with the most continuity from last season of any other team in the league. So, while teams like, say The Jets, start the season with an entirely new O-line, who has barely practiced together, among other roster changes, the Bills will be walking onto the field fully dialed in.

On offense, the Bills will have two changes to their starting roster that are both immediate, day-one upgrades in Stephon Diggs, and Daryl Williams. Diggs is unquestionably the best WR in the division, and Williams is an all-pro O-linesman. 

On defense, the Bills remain as deep as they were last season. With the attrition experienced by the Pats*, they are clearly the best D in the division, and remain top three in the league. With the additions of Vernon Butler, Quinten Jefferson, and Mario Addison, the rotation on the D-line will exhaust opposing O-lines, and their secondary only got better with Josh Norman.

My advice to Jets fans: stop whining about how the Bills are "over-rated," (they're not) and Sunday might hurt less.

Finally someone who thinks a little rationally. And it comes from a Bills fan? No way!

just joshin with ya...,. get it? 

 

But yeah the Bills are LEGIT and even a slight improvement from Allen would mean the take the division. I read a stat somewhere that had Allen (who has the lowest checkdown percentage in the NFL) checked down 7-or-so times, his completion percentage would have been over 60%. This narrative of him being so inaccurate that he cant hit an open receiver needs to go, that guy slings the ball on the run like few I have ever seen. I remember seeing him shake the Cinci DE out of his shoes on a broken play and hit the first down last year. There was maybe 1 or 2 guys in the NFL that could make that play. If he improves, which he probably will with the cast and continuity they bring, the Bills will be beating us for years. Good luck guys, I am not optimistic about week 1 at all. 

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4 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

The Bills secondary depth will be tested early as well. Could be a good time for Sam to test it. I dunno.... i fully understand and expect some homerism, ESPECIALLY on an opposing teams message board. But outside of some truly (refershingly) objective Jets fans - there is something deeper. There is always a disdain for Bills/Jets between their fans. But now that Bills fans want so badly for the NFL to see what they do in their FQB and Jets fans dont want to admit or think maybe they drafter the wrong guy... its gotten worse. If the Jets loose, Im sure SAR will be here spouting about how the Bills won in spite of Allen and if Darnold was QB for BUF they would have won by even more etc and I guess whatever you need to think to take yourself feel better is fine BUT I think the reality is each of these qbs still have progression ahead of them and neither are a finished product.  There have been a lot of knocks on Allen here and many are warranted but others are just plain silly. The kid didnt have anywhere near the amount of snaps the others did in college and the qlty of those snaps he did receive were of a much lower caliber competition on top of that. Anywhere he has needed to progress between yr 1 and yr 2, there was an improvement both statistically and with the eye test. That pitch in the playoffs last year keeps getting brought up... was it dumb? Yep! But it was just a kid who wanted it really nad trying to make something happen. That seems to be a big knock on him in that maybe he cares too much. People like that however seem to keep getting better. By all accounts hes impressed at camp, so we'll see this year.

Conversely, Darnold just needs some consistency so he CAN grow. Its not his fault its been a circus around him and he has managed to keep his head above water and impress here and there in the process. Hopefully for the jets thisbis the beginning of the carousel stopping spinning and he can build on the success hes had in his 1st 2 years and step up and make the Jets a suprise. 

 

Bottom line is both these qbs are still young, promising, and have career arcs on the upswing.  If SAR feels the need to dog the Bills RB, fine. But outside of some bitter/jealous/dissappinted jets fans, that isnt the general consensus and i think youd enjoy it more if you were open to the possibility both could be good. I dont get hating on one bc you bc one team is perceived as the better team. Its the equivalent of a Bills fan who just wants to preach about how all jackson does is run and how defenses figured him out last year and he cant pass and blah blah blah. All that is, is an uninformed Bills fan upset his team had a shot at Lamar and they passed OR jealous that Baltimores QB came along faster than theirs. Its just silly. Be better than that and enjoy 2 good young qbs who hopefully will be playing good exciting games against each other for years to come!!

Had that pitch worked everyone would have talked about what a genius play he made in a clutch time. Knox would have ran someone over with the ball in his hands. 

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In 2020 Sam Darnold will improve to 3-0 @ Buffalo as a starting quarterback. Currently Darnold is 2-1 vs Allen head-to-head. Last season in week 17 Bills head coach Sean McDermot knew better than to let Greg Williams mess with his QB's confidence before the playoffs, so he pulled Josh after 2 fruitless drives in the first quarter that resulted in only 14 yards of total offense  and Josh completing 2 out of 4 passes for a total of 5 yards...the rest of the offense was one 9 yard run by Frank Gore. Bills are pretenders, not contenders. 

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31 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

In 2020 Sam Darnold will improve to 3-0 @ Buffalo as a starting quarterback. Currently Darnold is 2-1 vs Allen head-to-head. Last season in week 17 Bills head coach Sean McDermot knew better than to let Greg Williams mess with his QB's confidence before the playoffs, so he pulled Josh after 2 fruitless drives in the first quarter that resulted in only 14 yards of total offense  and Josh completing 2 out of 4 passes for a total of 5 yards...the rest of the offense was one 9 yard run by Frank Gore. Bills are pretenders, not contenders. 

Lol, ya ok... darnold may go to 3 and 0, but the rest will let you sleep better tonight so whatever you need to tell yourself- i get it:)

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22 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

My advice to Jets fans: stop whining about how the Bills are "over-rated," (they're not) and Sunday might hurt less.

It can be simultaneously true that the Bills are overrated AND there's a pretty good chance they kick our a$$es Week 1.  Those aren't mutually exclusive points. 

I think they're overrated AND will win the AFC East.  Also not mutually exclusive.

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16 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

Lol, ya ok... darnold may go to 3 and 0, but the rest will let you sleep better tonight so whatever you need to tell yourself- i get it:)

Greg Williams should donate $10,000 to a "charity" for each Josh Allen turnover his D creates.

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10 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

Greg Williams should donate $10,000 to a "charity" for each Josh Allen turnover his D creates.

Big charity aspriations for a guy w 7 less INTs and 2 more games played than Darnold....;)

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10 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

Big charity aspriations for a guy w 7 less INTs and 2 more games played than Darnold....;)

And how many fumbles?

 

joshallenfumble.jpg

 

tenor.gif?itemid=16607497

 

source.gif

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7 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

Big charity aspriations for a guy w 7 less INTs and 2 more games played than Darnold....;)

You must have conveniently forgot fumbles count for turnovers as well, and we all know how much Allen has fumbled the ball since coming into the league, which is 22 times in 27 starts...only Carson Wentz has fumbled more (25) in the same exact amount of starts (27), but the thing is Carson Wentz  is actually good at passing the ball, something your quarterback isn't good at. One QB completes 66% of his passes  during 27 starts from 2018-2019 and the other one completed 56% of his passes during the same number of starts and time frame. 

 

LINK to Pro Football Reference regarding fumbles

 

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18 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

You must have conveniently forgot fumbles count for turnovers as well, and we all know how much Allen has fumbled the ball since coming into the league, which is 22 times in 27 starts...only Carson Wentz has fumbled more (25) in the same exact amount of starts (27), but the thing is Carson Wentz  is actually good at passing the ball, something your quarterback isn't good at. One QB completes 66% of his passes  during 27 starts from 2018-2019 and the other one completed 56% of his passes during the same number of starts and time frame. 

 

LINK to Pro Football Reference regarding fumbles

 

 

Such a shame.  The Bills would be a true contender if only they had an actual Quarterback playing the QB position.  

Things will get real interesting when it comes time to decide on handing him a 2nd contract.  

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31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Such a shame.  The Bills would be a true contender if only they had an actual Quarterback playing the QB position.  

Things will get real interesting when it comes time to decide on handing him a 2nd contract.  

Ironic, considering the Jets would actually be good if... wait.... lol, w/that roster - never? OUCH!!!

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1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said:

You must have conveniently forgot fumbles count for turnovers as well, and we all know how much Allen has fumbled the ball since coming into the league, which is 22 times in 27 starts...only Carson Wentz has fumbled more (25) in the same exact amount of starts (27), but the thing is Carson Wentz  is actually good at passing the ball, something your quarterback isn't good at. One QB completes 66% of his passes  during 27 starts from 2018-2019 and the other one completed 56% of his passes during the same number of starts and time frame. 

 

LINK to Pro Football Reference regarding fumbles

 

Ok, so if we wanna cherry pick stats we can all find stats that make allen look awesome or terrible. Same with darnold, he has flattering stats and others not so much. Here are a bunch of jets fans, who, rather than actually discussing the upcoming seasons prospects... wanna bicker over what constitutes a turnover. Why? Well, if the Jets were my team I might be inclined to turn my attention somewhere else as well - so I dont blame you one bit. Heck, things are apparently so bad some posters here need to litterally make themselves feel better by saying if the Bills had their qb theyd be better bc if you cant actually be good.... thinking you have the better qb is some sort of consolation prize?

As ive said a few times, i think both qbs are on the rise. The problem is, Jets fans seem to think insulting allen is an insult because they have savior sam. Meanwhile,  at this point, Jets fans seem to be the only people finding consolation in that as it would seem most people, inculding most Bills fans would rather allen. Do those of you who think darnold walks on water REALLY think you know something the rest of the world doesn't and your just smarter or everyone? OOOORRRRRR is it maybe a little more likely its just maybe being a wwweeeeeeee bit jealous and even though youd never admit it - deep down inside there is doubt maybe your team took the wrong guy? Hey, i wanted Rosen so what do I know. All i know is I tried explaiming how silly it is to judge either of these kids like they are a finished product. You guys didnt want to and opened the can of worms. After analyzing it, I get it. Hope is a dangerous thing. It makes us do crazy things. Case in point? 

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12 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

Ok, so if we wanna cherry pick stats we can all find stats that make allen look awesome or terrible.

Oh you know, things like completion %, YPA and turnover ratio, just those little old things that are absolutely essential when projecting a player's ability to ever play the position well, and aspects of a QB's play that never really improve.

But sure, "cherry picking", I suppose.  We all know rushing stats are most important when it comes to QB's.

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24 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

Ironic, considering the Jets would actually be good if... wait.... lol, w/that roster - never? OUCH!!!

We have a bottom 5 roster and a question mark at QB.  You're barking up the wrong tree if you think I'd disagree with either of those points.

The difference is Darnold MIGHT end up a decent QB.  Josh Allen will always be a RB trying to play the QB position, and that will always hold back an otherwise great roster.

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21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We have a bottom 5 roster and a question mark at QB.  You're barking up the wrong tree if you think I'd disagree with either of those points.

The difference is Darnold MIGHT end up a decent QB.  Josh Allen will always be a RB trying to play the QB position, and that will always hold back an otherwise great roster.

But thats the entire point. Respectfully, you cant see the full picture bc you are too wrapped up in it. These tired knocks people have had on allen since he was drafted are old and outdated. No one even know he could run when he was drafted so he silences one and thats the next lazy one to come up. Unless you have a crystal ball, you dont know. You cant see the forrest through the trees so to speak. If this was 2 totally different teams, youd be more objective and realize after 2 years and constant improvement its almost ignorant to pretend you know how something will turn out. Many national pundits have changed their story on allen for example. Theyve put in the time and watched him and have seen it 1st hand. Not a couple games a year and then in the playoffs, but most games to see the game changing ability that IF harnessed, can turn into something special. Now dont get me wrong thats a big IF.... but each year he has improved and was far and away the most raw qb taken that year. The people who, like yourself, have already made their decloration will continue to do so because you either havent watched, dont know what you are looking for, OR (and this is most common) decided when he was drafted hed be a bust and cant admit you might be wrong. In this case as a jets fan its a double edge sword because if Sam fails, then its not only admitting allen is good but ALSO that your team chose the wrong guy. 

Again, im not going to tell you either will be a star or either will be a bust. It just makes it hard to be objective when you keep insisting you know something that hasnt yet been decided. Your emotions have clouded your judgment young padawan.... hopefully its not forshadowing to a turn to the darkside!!! 

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Screw the Bills. Seems very Buffalo Billish for them to finish 6-10 and miss the playoffs.

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23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We have a bottom 5 roster and a question mark at QB.  You're barking up the wrong tree if you think I'd disagree with either of those points.

The difference is Darnold MIGHT end up a decent QB.  Josh Allen will always be a RB trying to play the QB position, and that will always hold back an otherwise great roster.

Bills trolls forget that up until a couple years ago the Bills hadn't made the playoffs since 1999 and Doug Flutie. Lol oh but now they troll our boards to tell us we suck since we have been struggling. Troll bjtches.

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7 minutes ago, Billsfan1212 said:

But thats the entire point. Respectfully, you cant see the full picture bc you are too wrapped up in it. These tired knocks people have had on allen since he was drafted are old and outdated. No one even know he could run when he was drafted so he silences one and thats the next lazy one to come up. Unless you have a crystal ball, you dont know. You cant see the forrest through the trees so to speak. If this was 2 totally different teams, youd be more objective and realize after 2 years and constant improvement its almost ignorant to pretend you know how something will turn out. Many national pundits have changed their story on allen for example. Theyve put in the time and watched him and have seen it 1st hand. Not a couple games a year and then in the playoffs, but most games to see the game changing ability that IF harnessed, can turn into something special. Now dont get me wrong thats a big IF.... but each year he has improved and was far and away the most raw qb taken that year. The people who, like yourself, have already made their decloration will continue to do so because you either havent watched, dont know what you are looking for, OR (and this is most common) decided when he was drafted hed be a bust and cant admit you might be wrong. In this case as a jets fan its a double edge sword because if Sam fails, then its not only admitting allen is good but ALSO that your team chose the wrong guy. 

Again, im not going to tell you either will be a star or either will be a bust. It just makes it hard to be objective when you keep insisting you know something that hasnt yet been decided. Your emotions have clouded your judgment young padawan.... hopefully its not forshadowing to a turn to the darkside!!! 

Hey man, will you stop by Sunday evening after your 0-1 start to chat about the game with us?? I hope so.

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9 minutes ago, TNJet said:

Hey man, will you stop by Sunday evening after your 0-1 start to chat about the game with us?? I hope so.

With trash talk like that i think ill be able to drag myself up of the floor to do it hahaha. You seem to have missed the point though. Its not straight trolling.  Its more trying to have a constructive conversation - which - many people on your board have been capable of having. Its not like either of our franchises are the Patriots.  At this point they both had a similar starting point and if nothing more than having the correct people in the front office. Hopefully the jets catch up next year bc its a fun rivalry.  There is no reason why it needs to be all trash talk. Most people here have been really respectful and i appreciate it and enjoy the constructive conversation. For the few who like to dog on allen bc its all they have left- thats cool too. It really doesn't phase bills fans anymore bc they know whats up. Dude could be mvp and jets fans would still knock him. Its what jets fans do. I know full well what i was in for signing up here. Those who have been welcoming, thank you!

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18 minutes ago, TNJet said:

Bills trolls forget that up until a couple years ago the Bills hadn't made the playoffs since 1999 and Doug Flutie. Lol oh but now they troll our boards to tell us we suck since we have been struggling. Troll bjtches.

No one forgets my man. It just makes it that much sweeter!

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20 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Absolutely.  But in this case I imagine their high % comes by virtue of the expectation they'll win an easy division.  It isn't necessarily suggesting that they're truly the 3rd best team in the AFC. 

And their stature would be suspect even if they did end up with the 3-seed; going 6-0 or 5-1 against a weak division would earn them a strong seed but wouldn't do them any favors in a playoff matchup against the Steelers or Colts, a game I'd expect them to lose.  The Titans, meanwhile, would have had to grind out the AFC South against the Colts and Texans, and would also likely be a stronger team than the Bills in this instance.

Regardless, its never been more important to earn the 1-seed thanks to the new playoff format.  All that will matter out of the AFC is who finishes first, whether that be KC, Baltimore, or a surprise team.  I give about 3-4 teams in the AFC other than KC/Baltimore a slim chance to take that spot (Titans, Colts, Steelers, Texans), but Buffalo would not be one of them.

The Colts and Steelers? 😂

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9 hours ago, SAR I said:

Certainly.

My point is that the Bills and Jets are the same team.  Our D is very good, theirs is better but not by much.  ST's about the same.  Coaching about the same.  But we have the better quarterback and that makes a huge difference, equalizes their defensive advantage.

So we have just as much of a greater than average chance to get in as the Bills do, and all the hype that the Bills are getting the Jets will soon be getting when we prove ourselves, should be as early as 4pm on Sunday.

SAR I

Yeah you lost me at coaching.

Gase isn’t as good as anyone. Maybe some coach in the Arena League.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Oh you know, things like completion %, YPA and turnover ratio, just those little old things that are absolutely essential when projecting a player's ability to ever play the position well, and aspects of a QB's play that never really improve.

But sure, "cherry picking", I suppose.  We all know rushing stats are most important when it comes to QB's.

Allen, surprisingly, actually has a good turnover rate. Very mediocre Y/A, as does Darnold. His whole problem is he’s absolutely horrible on long throws. Don’t know if that’ll be fixed, but I wouldn’t preclude it and personnel will help. Also dialing back his super-high deep ball rate might help.

He’s top tier in the league in midrange, but won’t find lasting success without better long ball, as his ground game won’t spring eternal. Jury’s still out, when looking at those stats.

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7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That was before they paid a mediocre Jared Goff $33.5M per season and expended heavy draft capital on a disappointing Jalen Ramsey.

Their roster is actually still pretty good but their window is already firmly shut.  Escaping the NFC West with a wild card spot, even with 3 wild cards as opposed to 2, will prove highly difficult for them moving forward.

Oh I forgot there is 3 wild card teams this year.

This list makes more sense knowing that.

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1 hour ago, Ecmic said:

Allen, surprisingly, actually has a good turnover rate. Very mediocre Y/A, as does Darnold. His whole problem is he’s absolutely horrible on long throws. Don’t know if that’ll be fixed, but I wouldn’t preclude it and personnel will help. Also dialing back his super-high deep ball rate might help.

He’s top tier in the league in midrange, but won’t find lasting success without better long ball, as his ground game won’t spring eternal. Jury’s still out, when looking at those stats.

Excellent post fwiw

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2 hours ago, Billsfan1212 said:

No one forgets my man. It just makes it that much sweeter!

Haha Bills fan upvotes his own post for potw

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10 hours ago, nycdan said:

James Bond never paid for sex.

Arrest warrant to be issued for Robert Kraft - YouTube

Maybe not directly, but Beluga caviar and Dom Pérignon isn't inexpensive to say the least. Plus, I wanted to see the spamming of the Kraft* arrest warrant picture to continue in this thread.

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