Vegas Pros sound off on the Jets Season Ahead

[Gangrene]

Vegas Pros Previews The Jets

Above  is a link to a six minute Jets season preview with football betting gurus Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell. 

They're both really smart Vegas football geeks, it's a good listen or a delusional, ill-informed take depending on where you fall on the Jets season ahead.

These guys are not going to change your mind but hey...you still have 25 more hours to kill until kick off.

 

[JTJet]

2 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Vegas Pros Previews The Jets

Above  is a link to a six minute Jets season preview with football betting gurus Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell. 

They're both really smart Vegas football geeks, it's a good listen or a delusional, ill-informed take depending on where you fall on the Jets season ahead.

These guys are not going to change your mind but hey...you still have 25 more hours to kill until kick off.

 

Just recap what they said. 

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Vegas Pros Previews The Jets

Above  is a link to a six minute Jets season preview with football betting gurus Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell. 

They're both really smart Vegas football geeks, it's a good listen or a delusional, ill-informed take depending on where you fall on the Jets season ahead.

These guys are not going to change your mind but hey...you still have 25 more hours to kill until kick off.

Doesn't sound like they're very high on Darnold or the Jets.

[T0mShane]

I really love RJ Bell’s ESPN hits. Entertaining and knowledgable guy. 

[Gangrene]

3 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Just recap what they said. 

JT, it's only six minutes long, how exciting is this life of yours that you can't hit that link? ? 

It's way too detailed and packed with detail for me to give you a blow by blow...

[JTJet]

Just now, Gangrene said:

JT, it's only six minutes long, how exciting is this life of yours that you can't hit that link? ? 

It's way too detailed and packed with detail for me to give you a blow by blow...

I'm watching other things right now. Humor me. 

Do they think the Jets or going to better than expected or worse. That's all I really want to know. 

[Gangrene]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I really love RJ Bell’s ESPN hits. Entertaining and knowledgable guy. 

He's equal measures sarcastic and smart, hard to argue with what he has to say about the Jets.

[jetophile]

25 more hours? I'm behind schedule on my pacing. There's a swath on my hardwood floors from my kitchen sink to my living room door that's dulled. Gameday pacing, pre-game anxiety and anticipation pacing, post-game anger pacing. Usually for a 1:00 game the pacing starts around 8:30 in the morning the day of; but I committed to a hike in the woods tomorrow so I'm taping the game. It's good for my health.  To not watch it until later.

[JTJet]

3 minutes ago, jetophile said:

25 more hours? I'm behind schedule on my pacing. There's a swath on my hardwood floors from my kitchen sink to my living room door that's dulled. Gameday pacing, pre-game anxiety and anticipation pacing, post-game anger pacing. Usually for a 1:00 game the pacing starts around 8:30 in the morning the day of; but I committed to a hike in the woods tomorrow so I'm taping the game. It's good for my health.  To not to watch it until later.

Hace a feeling your post-game pacing is going to burn a hole in your hardwood floor unfortunately. 

[TuscanyTile2]

Some "highlights":

They say Darnold's last 5 games last year were all "below average".

PFF did a projection of the 1st 2 years of a QB and they say Sam's "comparables" are Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez

Trubisky (based on his career so far) has been "hands down the better QB" over Sam.

Sam is 2nd-to-last so far in his draft class next to Josh Rosen.

They predict "under 875 rushing yards" for Le'veon.  The other guy predicts "much less than 875".  They think there will be a transition with the new OL and Le'veon's unique rushing style.  Plus it's a contract year and they say he's a "businessman" (I assume meaning he'll want to preserve his body).

The fact that they traded away their best defensive player while Sam is on his rookie deal means they don't trust Sam.

Going back 4 seasons, if you look at teams that had a losing record the prior season (54 teams), they noticed that only 6 teams had their Vegas "win total" go down the next year.  They surmise the reason is that these teams get "bad breaks" (e.g. injuries) or in "tank mode", etc.  While the Jets did lead the league in injuries last year, they say that they're an anomaly because they have a veteran coach and a QB in place already.  They say the fact that Vegas has the Jets' win total at 6.5 this year (despite having won 7 games last year) indicates "extreme pessimism" about the team.

[T0mShane]

20 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Just recap what they said. 

Key points:

1. Darnold makes or breaks the Jets this year, and they’re skeptical of his ability to turn it around. Cited his QBR lagging over the last five weeks, and the PFF projection  of his near future being comparable to guys like Christian Ponder and Blake Bortles. 
 

2. The o/u on Lev Bell rushing yards is 875, and they both think it’ll be way under because of the new OL group getting used to Bell’s unique running style, and Bell hanging it up if/when the writing is on the wall that he’s not coming back next year. 
 

3. RJ Bell saying that it’s odd to see Vegas take a team with a losing record from the year prior and predict them to be even worse the next year because there’s usually some course correction in the offseason, and the Jets didn’t get appreciably better. Bell says it’s an indicator that there’s a ton of pessimism in the betting markets for the 2020 Jets. 
 

Overall, an interesting listen. 

 

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

He's equal measures sarcastic and smart, hard to argue with what he has to say about the Jets.

Word. And I also like that he approaches it from the money/gambling side and isn’t just doing hot-take radio bullsh*t. 

[Gibby]

They called them complete sh*t

[Beerfish]

7 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Some "highlights":

They say Darnold's last 5 games last year were all "below average".

PFF did a projection of the 1st 2 years of a QB and they say Sam's "comparables" are Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez

Trubisky (based on his career so far) has been "hands down the better QB" over Sam.

Sam is 2nd-to-last so far in his draft class next to Josh Rosen.

They predict "under 875 rushing yards" for Le'veon.  The other guy predicts "much less than 875".  They think there will be a transition with the new OL and Le'veon's unique rushing style.  Plus it's a contract year and they say he's a "businessman" (I assume meaning he'll want to preserve his body).

The fact that they traded away their best defensive player means they don't trust Sam.

Going back 4 seasons, if you look at teams that had a losing record the prior season, they noticed that only 6 teams had their win total go down the next year.  They surmise the reason is that these teams get "bad breaks" (e.g. injuries) or in "tank mode", etc.  Meanwhile, the Jets have a veteran coach and a QB in place already.  They say the fact that Vegas has the Jets' win total at 6.5 indicates "extreme pessimism" about the team.

The bolded is an idiotic take which shows they really do not know what is up with the Jets.

I have a tough time comparing QBs in vastly different situations.  Comparing Darnold to Sanchez is silly.

The team ignored offense and the oline for a decade which hurts a QB. 

I'll stick with my take, the biggest impediment to Darnold taking a step is Adam Gase.  If you hate Darnold feel free to insert any young QB you want.  I'd say the same thing about Lawrence, that he is doomed with our head coach, who stinks and has developed no one.

 

[Bowles Movement]

28 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Vegas Pros Previews The Jets

Above  is a link to a six minute Jets season preview with football betting gurus Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell. 

They're both really smart Vegas football geeks, it's a good listen or a delusional, ill-informed take depending on where you fall on the Jets season ahead.

These guys are not going to change your mind but hey...you still have 25 more hours to kill until kick off.

 

I guess the question is what did they predict last year?     We have the “answer key” for those predictions

[Gangrene]

3 minutes ago, JTJet said:

I'm watching other things right now. Humor me. 

Do they think the Jets or going to better than expected or worse. That's all I really want to know. 

 I would say that RJ Bell who is the main host, is leaning negative on Darnold's prospects. Steve Fezzik backs up those views stats with his own number crunching.

What's more interesting is his statistical breakdown on Darnold's last six games, last season It's not something any Darnold fan wants to believe.

Breaking down Le'veon's particular running style., Fezzik believes it will take some time for him to be effective behind a new line.

Statistically RJ is equally down on Adam Gase's prospects.

It's only six minutes so their stat analysis does not take into account the Jet improvements on the online. They don't get into draft class or free agent losses/versus acquisitions.  It's more a trending/statistical breakdown.

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The bolded is an idiotic take which shows they really do not know what is up with the Jets.

 

It was more in context with the Jets’ overall prospects this year and reading the tea leaves regarding whether or not the team thinks they can win with Darnold. It wasn’t like, “they hate Sam so much that they’re tanking.”

[Beerfish]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

It was more in context with the Jets’ overall prospects this year and reading the tea leaves regarding whether or not the team thinks they can win with Darnold. It wasn’t like, “they hate Sam so much that they’re tanking.”

Well that is what should have been said.   The Adams deal had zero to do with Darnold so they should not spin it that way.

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The bolded is an idiotic take which shows they really do not know what is up with the Jets.

I have a tough time comparing QBs in vastly different situations.  Comparing Darnold to Sanchez is silly.

The team ignored offense and the oline for a decade which hurts a QB. 

I'll stick with my take, the biggest impediment to Darnold taking a step is Adam Gase.  If you hate Darnold feel free to insert any young QB you want.  I'd say the same thing about Lawrence, that he is doomed with our head coach, who stinks and has developed no one.

 

I updated my post btw (as I almost always do - lol).  They said the fact he was traded while Sam was on his rookie deal was the pessimistic sign.

[Gangrene]

17 minutes ago, jetophile said:

25 more hours? I'm behind schedule on my pacing. There's a swath on my hardwood floors from my kitchen sink to my living room door that's dulled. Gameday pacing, pre-game anxiety and anticipation pacing, post-game anger pacing. Usually for a 1:00 game the pacing starts around 8:30 in the morning the day of; but I committed to a hike in the woods tomorrow so I'm taping the game. It's good for my health.  To not to watch it until later.

Bravo on your self denial, burn calories at elevation first then suffer emotionally while reclining later.

[JTJet]

This completely lost me at 

"Trubisky is hands down better than Darnold" 

[JTJet]

7 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

 I would say that RJ Bell who is the main host, is leaning negative on Darnold's prospects. Steve Fezzik backs up those views stats with his own number crunching.

What's more interesting is his statistical breakdown on Darnold's last six games, last season It's not something any Darnold fan wants to believe.

Breaking down Le'veon's particular running style., Fezzik believes it will take some time for him to be effective behind a new line.

Statistically RJ is equally down on Adam Gase's prospects.

It's only six minutes so their stat analysis does not take into account the Jet improvements on the online. They don't get into draft class or free agent losses/versus acquisitions.  It's more a trending/statistical breakdown.

This makes any of their analysis 100% pointless. 

[TuscanyTile2]

Just now, JTJet said:

This completely lost me at 

"Trubisky is hands down better than Darnold" 

They were comparing Trubisky's career so far against Sam's career so far.

I fully agree with you btw that it makes no sense.  Sam was the youngest starter in NFL history in his first year.  Last year he had a new HC, crap OL and dealt with mono.  I remain fully on-board with Sam and I think he will be our FQB.  I think there's an over-reliance on stat geek type stuff where people are missing the bigger picture.  Mind you, I'm not against the stat-geeky stuff but I don't think it tells the whole story.  Stats are a tool but not the final thing.

[playtowinthegame]

28 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

1. Darnold makes or breaks the Jets this year, and they’re skeptical of his ability to turn it around. Cited his QBR lagging over the last five weeks, and the PFF projection  of his near future being comparable to guys like Christian Ponder and Blake Bortles. 

I thought I heard Darnold was comparable to Geno Smith and Blake Bortles. Soon as I heard Geno I was grabbing the Sundae Driver.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

I thought I heard Darnold was comparable to Geno Smith and Blake Bortles. Soon as I heard that I was grabbing the OG Sundae Driver.

That's what other people on the road who are upset at Crusher scream at him.

[T0mShane]

14 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Well that is what should have been said.   The Adams deal had zero to do with Darnold so they should not spin it that way.

I mean, do you think the Jets think they can win anything this year? Bell’s point is that they’re not acting like a team that’s super-confident in competing for a title as currently constituted, with Darnold being the centerpiece of that 

 

40 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

[PepPep]

One thing neither guy mentioned was how awful the o-line was last year. I mean, these guys are talking about how this new O-line will need to 'mesh' for Bell to be successful and how Darnold was below average even when the team was winning down the stretch, they bring up the QBR and compare him to Sanchez and Geno and Bortles and Ponder. They even mention injuries (in a different context). But not once do either one of them mention how god-awful the O-line was. How it got no push in the run game, how the pocket collapsed immediately, how Edoga would let guys fly by on the blind side when Beachum got hurt and Shell was worthless on the right and when both guys were hurt we had, what, Qvale as our starting RT?  How Winters played hurt and was pretty much a detriment on the field and our C was over the hill and completely unqualified to play at the NFL level despite his track record. Sam was pretty much in 'run for your life mode' all season. And yeah, I get that the back up stepped in and those last few games our o-line finally got some sort of semblance of an NFL caliber group. At least by then we had serviceable guys like Harrison, Compton, Lewis, Beachem. But boy, thats still pretty god-awful.   

[rangerous]

maybe they're pumping and dumping although the opposite way.  the gamblers always want a sure thing and by touting a low bar it's easy to bet the other side.

[Gangrene]

If the online revamp works out, Sam Darnold's numbers will improve significantly and the debate will continue for another year on both qb and coach.

If the online does not work out as planned, then Sam will be looking at a legitimate QB competition in camp next summer.

 

[rangerous]

4 minutes ago, PepPep said:

One thing neither guy mentioned was how awful the o-line was last year. I mean, these guys are talking about how this new O-line will need to 'mesh' for Bell to be successful and how Darnold was below average even when the team was winning down the stretch, they bring up the QBR and compare him to Sanchez and Geno and Bortles and Ponder. They even mention injuries (in a different context). But not once do either one of them mention how god-awful the O-line was. How it got no push in the run game, how the pocket collapsed immediately, how Edoga would let guys fly by on the blind side when Beachum got hurt and Shell was worthless on the right and when both guys were hurt we had, what, Qvale as our starting RT?  How Winters played hurt and was pretty much a detriment on the field and our C was over the hill and completely unqualified to play at the NFL level despite his track record. Sam was pretty much in 'run for your life mode' all season. And yeah, I get that the back up stepped in and those last few games our o-line finally got some sort of semblance of an NFL caliber group. At least by then we had serviceable guys like Harrison, Compton, Lewis, Beachem. But boy, thats still pretty god-awful.   

no doubt the bad oline play brought the whole offense down.  if darnold looked worse during the second half then how did they win 6 and lose 2?  he must have had something to do with it.  what i think is darnold seemed to be trying to make a play when a run was available or it would've been just as good to throw the ball away.  we'll see very soon if he can be more consistent.

[TuscanyTile2]

Just now, rangerous said:

no doubt the bad oline play brought the whole offense down.  if darnold looked worse during the second half then how did they win 6 and lose 2?  he must have had something to do with it.  what i think is darnold seemed to be trying to make a play when a run was available or it would've been just as good to throw the ball away.  we'll see very soon if he can be more consistent.

They said the Jets won "in spite of" Sam.

[GreenFish]

I mean, non of what they said seems off. Darnold has shown flashes but he’s been a below average QB.

This is a make or break year for Darnold and Gase. They both need to prove they can lead a team.

I have faith both will prove themselves. But that’s mostly me hanging to those moments of brilliance we see.

Darnold and Gase have to show to be at least average at their jobs this year.

So, using this segment as a baseline, that means QBR of at least 50 for Sam. And we need to have at least an average all around offense for Gase to stay put. 

[Skeptable]

1 hour ago, Gangrene said:

Vegas Pros Previews The Jets

Above  is a link to a six minute Jets season preview with football betting gurus Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell. 

They're both really smart Vegas football geeks, it's a good listen or a delusional, ill-informed take depending on where you fall on the Jets season ahead.

These guys are not going to change your mind but hey...you still have 25 more hours to kill until kick off.

 

I used to listen to fezzik and the bear predictions for college football at ESPN... Although he has some deep knowledge of teams he normally ends up 50% on his picks or worse... He is also a trend follower for betting which can do well and be streaky but normally gets creamed for a stretch as well. 

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I mean, do you think the Jets think they can win anything this year? Bell’s point is that they’re not acting like a team that’s super-confident in competing for a title as currently constituted, with Darnold being the centerpiece of that 

 

No argument at all.  As i said, that has nothing to due with the Adams trade.

Adams was a pain in the ass, a phony, a non premium all pro and a guy that will want a zillion dollars soon enough and at the total peak of his value and wanted a trade.  That is why he was traded, not because the team was no ready to win this year or because they do not like the QB.

[playtowinthegame]

30 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

They said the Jets won "in spite of" Sam.

They act like Darnold was surrounded by an ALL-STAR SQUAD at all the skill positions. Can't use logic with rain men.