Vegas Pros sound off on the Jets Season Ahead

[T0mShane]

22 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No argument at all.  As i said, that has nothing to due with the Adams trade.

Adams was a pain in the ass, a phony, a non premium all pro and a guy that will want a zillion dollars soon enough and at the total peak of his value and wanted a trade.  That is why he was traded, not because the team was no ready to win this year or because they do not like the QB.

BUT if you’re a gambler looking to drop some coin on the 6.5 o/u and you’re looking for a reason to justify the over, trading a sh*theel like Adams might serve as a deterrent. Bell was saying just that, I think. 

[BCJet]

1 hour ago, JTJet said:

This completely lost me at 

"Trubisky is hands down better than Darnold" 

Agreed.  Basically if you have eyes, you know that Sam is better then Trubisky. 

[Jetsfan80]

50 minutes ago, rangerous said:

maybe they're pumping and dumping although the opposite way.  the gamblers always want a sure thing and by touting a low bar it's easy to bet the other side.

The O/U would have to go pretty low for a smart gambler to bet the over on the Jets.  Even if the Jets are a better team this season AND the team stays healthy (already not off to a great start there) the schedule difficulty alone makes this about a 6-win team. 

You just don't ever bet the over on a 5-7 win caliber team, because a lot more can go wrong to drop them to 4 wins than can go right to make them an 8-win team.

[FidelioJet]

38 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

They act like Darnold was surrounded by an ALL-STAR SQUAD at all the skill positions. Can't use logic with rain men.

But if you actually watched the games...that is pretty much what happened.

The defense won those games.  The offense, to Gase’s credit, were mostly in game management mode.  Can’t blame Sam much as he wasn’t asked to do a whole lot though.

These guys are right on in the sense that JD isn’t particularly high on Sam - and seems to be building a team for their next QB. That was very obvious to me in the way he’s managed this off-season.

This is not a very good team right now.  Under 6.5 is almost a lock.

[Jethead]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

These guys are right on in the sense that JD isn’t particularly high on Sam - and seems to be building a team for their next QB. That was very obvious to me in the way he’s managed this off-season.

I agree with your take on this point. Up to Sam to prove, this year, that he's the guy, by whatever means necessary. If he doesn't, then the Jets should move on.

[Ben Had]

SAR isnt going to like this!?

[Matt39]

Douglas needed a draft that hit for the Jets to have any sort of buzz this season. Entire class is basically injured. Who is the Jets best player? Do they have any? Maybe Becton if he's the goods. No one Maccagnan took is any good. This is a very bad team. There is no reason not to let Lawrence happen if you have 2 wins in November.

[Losmeister]

2 hours ago, jetophile said:

25 more hours? I'm behind schedule on my pacing. There's a swath on my hardwood floors from my kitchen sink to my living room door that's dulled. Gameday pacing, pre-game anxiety and anticipation pacing, post-game anger pacing. Usually for a 1:00 game the pacing starts around 8:30 in the morning the day of; but I committed to a hike in the woods tomorrow so I'm taping the game. It's good for my health.  To not to watch it until later.

do you do sweat like Aj Gallo?

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said:

They act like Darnold was surrounded by an ALL-STAR SQUAD at all the skill positions. Can't use logic with rain men.

no. they just said the team won despite the QB playing at below avg levels.

he was decidedly meh after the SKins game...no...Raiders game....

hislast 5 games were not good. I will say that he coulda been helped out more at Cinci. cos i can recollect aboiut 4 drops in that game.

[Losmeister]

the good part of a sound bite like this is...  the guys dont gaf about the Jets at all.

dispassionate analytics based on people who gamble on sports for their living. 

[JohnnyLV]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

Douglas needed a draft that hit for the Jets to have any sort of buzz this season. Entire class is basically injured. Who is the Jets best player? Do they have any? Maybe Becton if he's the goods. No one Maccagnan took is any good. This is a very bad team. There is no reason not to let Lawrence happen if you have 2 wins in November.

I just do not on any level buy into the "Darnold is bad" narrative.

Statistics without context mean nothing.

To make that statement you have to WILLFULLY ignore all context relative to his performance AND view his bad games as somehow more statistically valuable than the median of the other games.

Last year Darnold threw 10 TD's under pressure the MOST in the NFL

Last year,  From a clean pocket, Sam Darnold had an adjusted completion percentage (filtering out drops, throwaways, etc.) of 81.7% in 2019, 6th-best out of 32

Bad QBs just do not do this. 

The reality is that Darnold was saddled with  one of the worst OL of all time, a RB who has admitted he wasn't really in shape, and a below average receiving corps. 

Any QB in the NFL would have struggled on the Jets last year. And comparing him to Sanzhez. He is superior to Sanchex in every way. 

And for the zillionth time we are NOT a very bad team. We were not a bad team last year and we are better and deeper in many areas than last year so it is ludicrous to state we are a very bad team this year.

 

[Matt39]

4 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I just do not on any level buy into the "Darnold is bad" narrative.

Statistics without context mean nothing.

To make that statement you have to WILLFULLY ignore all context relative to his performance AND view his bad games as somehow more statistically valuable than the median of the other games.

Last year Darnold threw 10 TD's under pressure the MOST in the NFL

Last year,  From a clean pocket, Sam Darnold had an adjusted completion percentage (filtering out drops, throwaways, etc.) of 81.7% in 2019, 6th-best out of 32

Bad QBs just do not do this. 

The reality is that Darnold was saddled with  one of the worst OL of all time, a RB who has admitted he wasn't really in shape, and a below average receiving corps. 

Any QB in the NFL would have struggled on the Jets last year. And comparing him to Sanzhez. He is superior to Sanchex in every way. 

And for the zillionth time we are NOT a very bad team. We were not a bad team last year and we are better and deeper in many areas than last year so it is ludicrous to state we are a very bad team this year.

 

Who has a worse roster currently? Who is the best player on the Jets? Skins have Kerrigan...Jacksonville has Chark, both would be the Jets best player. Those are the two other worst teams in the league. Giants have Barkley and Engram.

And Darnold has been given a sh*t hand I agree there. 

[DonMaynardFan]

5 hours ago, jetophile said:

25 more hours? I'm behind schedule on my pacing. There's a swath on my hardwood floors from my kitchen sink to my living room door that's dulled. Gameday pacing, pre-game anxiety and anticipation pacing, post-game anger pacing. Usually for a 1:00 game the pacing starts around 8:30 in the morning the day of; but I committed to a hike in the woods tomorrow so I'm taping the game. It's good for my health.  To not watch it until later.

No self respecting football plan takes a hike instead of watching the season opener.

#lame

[DonMaynardFan]

2 hours ago, Ben Had said:

SAR isnt going to like this!?

Don’t worry, I’ll cover for SAR...

”These guys are blowhards. Most people don’t know this, but Sam Darnold spent most of the off-season teaching Mahomes how to play QB. While in Cali on vacation he ran his fingers through his luscious locks and made a sorority house full of college chicks faint. If it wasn’t for mono, we would have won the Super Bowl last year and Sam’s statue would have been carved out of Gold and adorned with the rarest and most precious diamonds ever known to man. It’s too bad that these guys will be losing so much money this year betting against the Jets.”

- Signed, SAR I (probably)

[static14]

These guys must be trillionaires right? I mean if they’re never wrong and all. 

[JohnnyLV]

11 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Who has a worse roster currently? Who is the best player on the Jets? Skins have Kerrigan...Jacksonville has Chark, both would be the Jets best player. Those are the two other worst teams in the league. Giants have Barkley and Engram.

And Darnold has been given a sh*t hand I agree there. 

See but that is the flaw in your logic. Rosters are not a function of who their best player is or a tally of the recognizable names on the roster. Many many people do this, they say that one roster is better than anothers simply because one has more notable names or a couple more pro bowl players. NFL just does not work that way. Can a team be noticeably better with the addition of a big name player? Yes. Is the roster level solely determined by how many name players they have? NO, not even close.

The Jets do not have stars. But we do have tremendous versatility and depth at DL and LB.  Poole is one of the best slot corners in NFL at coverage and we are greatly improved in overall depth at CB. Even without Adams we have a strong safety/

Offensively we are greatly improved at OL over last year and if Fant and Becton play well could be well above average. We are very solid and scheme diverse at TE both in passing and blocking Our receivers are a bit rough but probably as strong as we were opening day last year but stronger overall because of Herndon. Mims and Vyncint will be solid upgrades when they come back.

Darnold is the key really. Will he really emerge with a better OL? 

And then something almost no one mentions is we are close to elite on special teams and will likely continue to be and special teams affect a game way more than is ever stated. Sacks are flashier. Excellent special teams is at least equal to a flashy "edge" player in actually determining the outcome.

The Jets lack stars, but we are in the second years of the same system on offense and defense and we have solid depth and versaitility in our roster. Or roster is way better than people realize. Good enough to compete this year in the East

 

 

 

[RevisIsland610]

5 hours ago, PepPep said:

One thing neither guy mentioned was how awful the o-line was last year. I mean, these guys are talking about how this new O-line will need to 'mesh' for Bell to be successful and how Darnold was below average even when the team was winning down the stretch, they bring up the QBR and compare him to Sanchez and Geno and Bortles and Ponder. They even mention injuries (in a different context). But not once do either one of them mention how god-awful the O-line was. How it got no push in the run game, how the pocket collapsed immediately, how Edoga would let guys fly by on the blind side when Beachum got hurt and Shell was worthless on the right and when both guys were hurt we had, what, Qvale as our starting RT?  How Winters played hurt and was pretty much a detriment on the field and our C was over the hill and completely unqualified to play at the NFL level despite his track record. Sam was pretty much in 'run for your life mode' all season. And yeah, I get that the back up stepped in and those last few games our o-line finally got some sort of semblance of an NFL caliber group. At least by then we had serviceable guys like Harrison, Compton, Lewis, Beachem. But boy, thats still pretty god-awful.   

Exactly, The Oline was a dumpster fire, This is not debatable. I wonder if Mahomes or Watson would have done much with that Oline and Offensive talent. We already saw in game 1 how Watson missed Hopkins. 

[Wonderboy]

6 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Some "highlights":

They say Darnold's last 5 games last year were all "below average".

PFF did a projection of the 1st 2 years of a QB and they say Sam's "comparables" are Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez

Trubisky (based on his career so far) has been "hands down the better QB" over Sam.

Sam is 2nd-to-last so far in his draft class next to Josh Rosen.

They predict "under 875 rushing yards" for Le'veon.  The other guy predicts "much less than 875".  They think there will be a transition with the new OL and Le'veon's unique rushing style.  Plus it's a contract year and they say he's a "businessman" (I assume meaning he'll want to preserve his body).

The fact that they traded away their best defensive player while Sam is on his rookie deal means they don't trust Sam.

Going back 4 seasons, if you look at teams that had a losing record the prior season (54 teams), they noticed that only 6 teams had their Vegas "win total" go down the next year.  They surmise the reason is that these teams get "bad breaks" (e.g. injuries) or in "tank mode", etc.  While the Jets did lead the league in injuries last year, they say that they're an anomaly because they have a veteran coach and a QB in place already.  They say the fact that Vegas has the Jets' win total at 6.5 this year (despite having won 7 games last year) indicates "extreme pessimism" about the team.

Great. Sam has an average year. Jets don’t resign him and he ends up becoming the next Johnny Unitas. So Jetsy.

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

12 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

They were comparing Trubisky's career so far against Sam's career so far.

I fully agree with you btw that it makes no sense.  Sam was the youngest starter in NFL history in his first year.  Last year he had a new HC, crap OL and dealt with mono.  I remain fully on-board with Sam and I think he will be our FQB.  I think there's an over-reliance on stat geek type stuff where people are missing the bigger picture.  Mind you, I'm not against the stat-geeky stuff but I don't think it tells the whole story.  Stats are a tool but not the final thing.

I could be wrong and correct me if I am but with regards to the stretch of games in the second half of the season where they say Darnold regressed (and that might be true) I also read that over the 2nd half of the 2019 season Darnold Ranked #10 in the league in Passer Rating.  In my book that’s not regressing (if true).

I’d just like to see Darnold at some point in his career not running for his life on virtually every drop back and maybe just maybe they could get him a WR who the rest of the league would think of as a starter for their own team? I’m not even asking for a Top 5 WR.

 

[jetscrazey]

These guys are evaluating Sam based on when he had a bottom 5 o-line (and that's being generous.)  If the o-line becomes competent all of a sudden there is no book on Sam. 

[Icer]

Sam hasn't been great, but anyone who watched the team last year can tell you the line about "The Jets won in spite of Sam Darnold" is complete baloney. The only way the team had a chance to win any games last year, was with him under center. Those games with Siemian and Falk were a complete sh*tshow.

[BurnleyJet]

[TuscanyTile2]

On 9/12/2020 at 12:34 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

Some "highlights":

They say Darnold's last 5 games last year were all "below average".

PFF did a projection of the 1st 2 years of a QB and they say Sam's "comparables" are Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez

Trubisky (based on his career so far) has been "hands down the better QB" over Sam.

Sam is 2nd-to-last so far in his draft class next to Josh Rosen.

They predict "under 875 rushing yards" for Le'veon.  The other guy predicts "much less than 875".  They think there will be a transition with the new OL and Le'veon's unique rushing style.  Plus it's a contract year and they say he's a "businessman" (I assume meaning he'll want to preserve his body).

The fact that they traded away their best defensive player while Sam is on his rookie deal means they don't trust Sam.

Going back 4 seasons, if you look at teams that had a losing record the prior season (54 teams), they noticed that only 6 teams had their Vegas "win total" go down the next year.  They surmise the reason is that these teams get "bad breaks" (e.g. injuries) or in "tank mode", etc.  While the Jets did lead the league in injuries last year, they say that they're an anomaly because they have a veteran coach and a QB in place already.  They say the fact that Vegas has the Jets' win total at 6.5 this year (despite having won 7 games last year) indicates "extreme pessimism" about the team.

Wow, these guys did well on their predictions.  While I still like Sam, it's more on faith than on the numbers he's produced.  And the extreme pessimism they referred to looks extremely prescient.  We've got a great chance of going 0-16.

[sorry for quoting my own post but it had a summary of what Fezzik/Bell said in the segment.]

 

 

[Matt39]

On 9/12/2020 at 3:14 PM, Matt39 said:

Douglas needed a draft that hit for the Jets to have any sort of buzz this season. Entire class is basically injured. Who is the Jets best player? Do they have any? Maybe Becton if he's the goods. No one Maccagnan took is any good. This is a very bad team. There is no reason not to let Lawrence happen if you have 2 wins in November.

[TuscanyTile2]

On 9/12/2020 at 12:14 PM, Gangrene said:

Vegas Pros Previews The Jets

Above  is a link to a six minute Jets season preview with football betting gurus Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell. 

They're both really smart Vegas football geeks, it's a good listen or a delusional, ill-informed take depending on where you fall on the Jets season ahead.

These guys are not going to change your mind but hey...you still have 25 more hours to kill until kick off.

 

Do you know when this was posted?  They discuss the Jet win total over/under at 6.5 and I'm wondering if that was the number going into the season.  If this preview came out a couple of days before the season then 6.5 probably was the number going in.

[peebag]

On 9/12/2020 at 11:38 AM, Gibby said:

They called them complete sh*t

hey, what a coincidence, I did too!

[Gangrene]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Do you know when this was posted?  They discuss the Jet win total over/under at 6.5 and I'm wondering if that was the number going into the season.  If this preview came out a couple of days before the season then 6.5 probably was the number going in.

Going back to the original Send Cloud link, it's time stamped as "three months ago" from where we currently are. That's not the specificity that you are looking for but I imagine this Jets season review was weeks after the Jamal Adams trade and the CJ Mosley opt out... in August.

If a person was remotely objective... this  7 win team from a season ago now with a new offensive line, no training camp, bargain basement free agents... they were clearly heading in a downward spiral.

[jgb]

On 9/12/2020 at 6:34 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

Some "highlights":

They say Darnold's last 5 games last year were all "below average".

PFF did a projection of the 1st 2 years of a QB and they say Sam's "comparables" are Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez

Trubisky (based on his career so far) has been "hands down the better QB" over Sam.

Sam is 2nd-to-last so far in his draft class next to Josh Rosen.

They predict "under 875 rushing yards" for Le'veon.  The other guy predicts "much less than 875".  They think there will be a transition with the new OL and Le'veon's unique rushing style.  Plus it's a contract year and they say he's a "businessman" (I assume meaning he'll want to preserve his body).

The fact that they traded away their best defensive player while Sam is on his rookie deal means they don't trust Sam.

Going back 4 seasons, if you look at teams that had a losing record the prior season (54 teams), they noticed that only 6 teams had their Vegas "win total" go down the next year.  They surmise the reason is that these teams get "bad breaks" (e.g. injuries) or in "tank mode", etc.  While the Jets did lead the league in injuries last year, they say that they're an anomaly because they have a veteran coach and a QB in place already.  They say the fact that Vegas has the Jets' win total at 6.5 this year (despite having won 7 games last year) indicates "extreme pessimism" about the team.

Soothsayer.

My downside comp for Darnold has always been Sanchez. Rosen is Geno