Why were some of you so ready to panic?

[TuscanyTile2]

5 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

The NFL was essentially a different sport in 2004. Which is the era Eli was struggling in relative to Darnold's current struggles.

Almost no rookies played and succeeded. Ben's rookie season was seen as exceptional and nowadays rookie's blow it away. The game has been made much easier for QB's. Eli got the living piss beaten out of him in those first few years.

Are you saying that QBs today come into the league as rookies and dominate in their first season? 

You do realize that Lamar started only 7 games his 1st season and Mahomes only started 1 game in his first season.

[56mehl56]

47 minutes ago, Y3k said:

I think this is a somewhat fair and well articulated post. But l disagree with a few things. 

Missing receivers - yea I agree he was off. But this is not normal for Darnold, I don't see how this could be treated as anything other than he had a bad day. Hes typically and supremely accurate thrower... especially on the run. This is not a case of making "the same mistakes"

Missing wide open receivers... he missed crowder on a scramble. We are acting like this was happening the entire day. 

Throwing underneath with no TO. There was no other option there, took the gain to at least come home with some points. You wanted him to chuck it into the end zone off his back foot? 

Missreading blitzes.. I guess blitzes fail against every other QB in the NFL 100% of the time. He "miss read" ONE blitz... was thinking that an all out was coming and throwing to Hogan. The crowder TD was also an audible off a blitz.... 

Day dreaming during a time out. So you're making judgments off 2 seconds of camera time? Thats absurd. 

The pick was dumb. But I saw Brett Farve make mistakes like that his entire career. It doesn't make or break guys. We were down 21-0. It was third down, a defender was in his face (Couldn't have ran). Bad play, but the end of the world? It's been weeks since he made a mistake like that. The guy has clearly cut down the rate of the dumb picks... Why not see if we can limit those to say, 3 this year? Maybe then 2 next year? Then 1? Like is that really a hill to die on?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supremely accurate throwers don't have a 59% career completion %. 

High School QB's know to get rid of the ball when your in scoring range and no TO's left. Dumping it off was the 3rd worst thing he could do in that scenario behind  taking a sack or throwing a pick.  Just a bad decision. 

Gase gets blamed for everything in the offense but a QB unaware of the play clock is all on the QB, he needs to be the commander on the field .

The pick was bad  but I won't kill him for that , I'd rather a QB try to be aggressive at times.  My bigger problem with it is the type of throw -a floater across the middle - everyone knows that's a recipe for disaster. Try to drill in a sideline pass or heave it deep and hope for a PI like so many other QB's do these days. 

I still have high hopes for Sam , but he needs to elevate his game especially from the mental and leadership aspect.

[ZachEY]

8 minutes ago, jgb said:

Ah, the Goldilocks Zone of criticism

Well put.  I was far to early on Pennington, Sanchez, and Darnold.

[Y3k]

Do any of you doubt that if Darnold was on the Chiefs he wouldn't be a pro-bowl QB?

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Most of the sports media in the northeast do not watch college football and they went gaga over the Rose Bowl. The Pac-12 is awful. Rosen is another megabust. The silver lining I guess is Mayfield looks like one too.

Will be interesting to see how/if they adjust QBase, they even called out Hurts due to Mayfield and Murray's gaudy stats . If Mayfield doesn't regain rookie season form or Murray doesn't take the next step I imagine they will have to tweak to account for Oklahoma

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (98)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5	410 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR)	51%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR)	25%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR)	16%
Elite (>2500 DYAR)	7%

The QBASE system likes Hurts even though he's projected to be a late-third- or early-fourth-round pick. He's got three years of starting experience and had awesome statistics in his final year at Oklahoma: 70% completion rate and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. That latter number is the sixth-highest qualifying AYPA number in FBS history. But when you look at the five players ahead of him, you sense the biggest question about Hurts. Those players include Baker Mayfield twice and Kyler Murray. Four of the top six APYA seasons ever come from Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense. How much of Hurts' performance is Hurts, and how much is the offense, especially considering the big jump in Hurts' stats from his two starting years at Alabama to last year at Oklahoma?

 

[Y3k]

1 minute ago, 56mehl56 said:

Supremely accurate throwers don't have a 59% career completion %. 

High School QB's know to get rid of the ball when your in scoring range and no TO's left. Dumping it off was the 3rd worst thing he could do in that scenario behind  taking a sack or throwing a pick.  Just a bad decision. 

Gase gets blamed for everything in the offense but a QB unaware of the play clock is all on the QB, he needs to be the commander on the field .

The pick was bad  but I won't kill him for that , I'd rather a QB try to be aggressive at times.  My bigger problem with it is the type of throw -a floater across the middle - everyone knows that's a recipe for disaster. Try to drill in a sideline pass or heave it deep and hope for a PI like so many other QB's do these days. 

I still have high hopes for Sam , but he needs to elevate his game especially from the mental and leadership aspect.

completion % is the most easily manipulated stat in the NFL... Darnold has supreme accuracy its his biggest strength. 

[TuscanyTile2]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

It's not just about "one game." It's also about the 26 games before Sunday.

The opposite is probably more true. The optimists have excused away/forgotten Darnold's previous 26 starts in order to feel good about him going forward. It is the optimistic view that has been undercut. That's where the emotion is coming from. People being let down. The pessimistic fans were let down a long time ago. 

The pessimistic fans were let down a long time ago?  Like how long ago?  Were they let down after his rookie year???

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, Y3k said:

Do any of you doubt that if Darnold was on the Chiefs he wouldn't be a pro-bowl QB?

i doubt it . He's not a good at playing QB. He's a good sandlot player but so much more goes into playing at pro level and it happens on an unconscious level. Sam lacks the hours at the position needed to develop those automatic skills

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, Y3k said:

You don't think Darnold proved he was the only solution we had last year? He elevated the WORST offense in NFL history into a decent unit...

Narrator: it was not a decent unit

[Y3k]

There is a big difference between saying "Darnold was terrible, he needs to do a lot better" and saying "that's his hes a bust!"

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The pessimistic fans were let down a long time ago?  Like how long ago?  Were they let down after his rookie year???

Drafting is a hard business. College play doesn't extrapolate very well to pro play, especially at QB. I expect every first round QB to fail until proven otherwise. That's doubly true for the Jets, who have been horrendous at drafting offensive players in my lifetime.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Y3k said:

completion % is the most easily manipulated stat in the NFL... Darnold has supreme accuracy its his biggest strength. 

Not last Sunday

[ZachEY]

3 hours ago, Y3k said:

It's mind boggling that so many pea brains think that stats that don't account for game context and circumstance matter. How did Darnold rank among QBs that had the worst OL in NFL history protecting them?

DVOA and DYAR are, as best as can be measured, context.  And, the Jets didn't even have the worst offensive line in the league last year, let alone NFL history.

But, you really make the case for yourself as a thoughtful analyst with infantile insults and hyperbole.

He's the reality:  You have no idea what you're talking about or watching.  You'll be proven wrong.  In most ways, you already have been.  Then you'll pretend none of these conversations ever happened.

[Y3k]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Not last Sunday

Agreed, which is why i dont buy this "he's making the same mistakes" narrative. 

[Mike135]

1 hour ago, SR24 said:

People are freaking out because all we heard all off season was how much better Darnold is, how much more prepared he is going to be and how he's taken more control of the offense. 

Actually what I heard was the starters got their asses whooped by the backups in the scrimmage. 

Way too many new pieces and injuries.  They're basically in early preseason form right now.

Given there wasn't a preseason, the teams that didn't have much change (like Buffalo) have a huge advantage these first few games.

I won't panic about Sam or Gase until October. 

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Well put.  I was far to early on Pennington, Sanchez, and Darnold.

Hate to one up you but I almost got banned for being loudly and repeatedly pessimistic on Geno.

[Icer]

We all wanted Darnold to be good, we clung onto the brief flashes that he played up to his draft selection. But as time goes on, those performances become rarer and rarer.

He hasn't meaningfully improved in three years, and every time he plays a good defense he looks like pure basura. JD is operating this team like a full rebuild, and he should--the roster he inherited was an unmitigated disaster. If we have the chance to start over with a new coach and QB combo at the end of the year we have to take it. Darnold hasn't done 1/2 of what we need to see in order to extend him or keep trotting him out there like he is going to elevate the players around him, because he has shown that he can't. 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Drafting is a hard business. College play doesn't extrapolate very well to pro play, especially at QB. I expect every first round QB to fail until proven otherwise. That's doubly true for the Jets, who have been horrendous at drafting offensive players in my lifetime.

I understand all of this but I think it's crazy how quickly people are giving up on Sam.  We finally have a guy who is worthy of a long look and people are ready to discard him after under 2 seasons worth of games?  And while knowing that he's younger than the #1 overall pick from this season.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I understand all of this but I think it's crazy how quickly people are giving up on Sam.  We finally have a guy who is worthy of a long look and people are ready to discard him after under 2 seasons worth of games?  And while knowing that he's younger than the #1 overall pick from this season.

Depends on your point of view. If you're talking about how peoples' opinions have changed from Saturday to Sunday, I agree.

But I'm not in that world (not a Sam believer) so from my point of view, that opinion has been built brick by brick over 27 individual data points over 2+ calendar years. Even if I believed Sam would improve--and it's reasonable to expect incremental improvement--logically that was not going to happen against one of the NFL's best defenses with a revamped OL and missing his #1 receiver from last season in a year with limited training camp opportunity.

So yeah, Sunday shouldn't really have changed anyone's opinion.

[Y3k]

1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

DVOA and DYAR are, as best as can be measured, context.  And, the Jets didn't even have the worst offensive line in the league last year, let alone NFL history.

But, you really make the case for yourself a thoughtful analyst with infantile insults and hyperbole.

He's the reality:  You have no idea what you're talking about or watching.  You'll be proven wrong.  In most ways, you already have been.  Then you'll pretend none of these conversations ever happened.

Dak Prescott was the #1 DYAR ranked QB in the NFL. That's all you need to know that statistic. Pretty sure I saw him and Darnold on the same field and one was clearly better than the other. 

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I understand all of this but I think it's crazy how quickly people are giving up on Sam.  We finally have a guy who is worthy of a long look and people are ready to discard him after under 2 seasons worth of games?  And while knowing that he's younger than the #1 overall pick from this season.

I think it's crazy how quickly people decided Darnold was worth a long look.

[56mehl56]

10 minutes ago, Y3k said:

completion % is the most easily manipulated stat in the NFL... Darnold has supreme accuracy its his biggest strength. 

Sorry - not buying it. 

[Y3k]

2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Sorry - not buying it. 

try watching a game 

[Beerfish]

32 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I remember one who won 2 Superbowls, who also happened to play in MetLife Stadium (for the team in blue).

Also Troy aikman, Drew Brees.

Brees in his third year 2-9 record.  11 tds, 15 ints, 57.6% comp rate

[56mehl56]

3 minutes ago, Y3k said:

try watching a game 

Watched every one.  You should try watching without the green colored glasses. 

[Y3k]

5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Also Troy aikman, Drew Brees.

Brees in his third year 2-9 record.  11 tds, 15 ints, 57.6% comp rate

Irrelevant, we now live in a world of instant gratification. 

[Y3k]

2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Watched every one.  You should try watching without the green colored glasses. 

Doubt it. 

[JustInFudge]

33 minutes ago, Y3k said:

Dude he probably just didn't see crowder. Had his eyes on periman and then it was too late to throw to crowder... Its one miss

He looked right at him and considered it and pulled the ball down.

[Y3k]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

He looked right at him and considered it and pulled the ball down.

How do you know where he was looking? The shot is from behind him. Perriman was running next to crowder on that play. Even if you're right, it was ONE PLAY.

[Irktusk1957]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

The ones that expect to get paid $35 million the following year.

What about the ones making $7.5 million?

[ZachEY]

22 minutes ago, Y3k said:

Dak Prescott was the #1 DYAR ranked QB in the NFL. That's all you need to know that statistic. Pretty sure I saw him and Darnold on the same field and one was clearly better than the other. 

Indeed, Darnold is better than Dak, as evidenced by one awful throw that Robby Anderson managed to run under.

[ZachEY]

25 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

I think it's crazy how quickly people decided Darnold was worth a long look.

President and sole member of the Matt Simms Fan Club is who we go to for QB opinions.

[PS17]

55 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

It’s Tuesday. I’m finally ready to give this team a pass for what happened against the Bills. They sucked, Sam sucked, Gase especially sucked. I get it. I was ranting all game at my TV like everyone else. You couldn’t ask for a worse or more discouraging start.

Before the game I was telling a friend of mine that I’d be happy with competence this year. The roster isn’t great, the schedule is tough - just give me a team that’s prepared and an offense that has made strides in year two of Gase. 
 

It all came crashing down on Sunday, and the reality is sinking in  that what we saw could be what we’ll get this year. BUT... Then again maybe the Bills are who a lot of pundits thought they were. Maybe this team did need a game to knock the rust off. Maybe Sam just picked the worst possible game to lay an egg.

So onto week two we go. The leash has tightened. Expectations lowered. Do I expect a drastically different outcome? probably not. But I’ve been watching football too long to claim one week will definitively tell the tale of this season.

This is where I’m at too. I remember when the sky was falling in 2010 in that pitiful opener vs the Ravens, only to be a drive away from the Super Bowl that January. Granted the 2020 Jets are significantly worse but I’ll give the team another chance the next few weeks, expecting nothing.

[ZachEY]

20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Also Troy aikman, Drew Brees.

Brees in his third year 2-9 record.  11 tds, 15 ints, 57.6% comp rate

When is it okay to move on from a QB?  Because, Kurt Warner.

[PS17]

45 minutes ago, Ohhthepain said:

This is why we're seeing regression.  This is why the offense looks so abysmal. Hes playing in a system that best suits Peyton Manning, not Sam Darnold. The Gase hire was never going to work from day 1 because of this.

Go back to year one and look at his tape. Jeremy Bates had Sam slingin it around. It's actually sad to see him play like this. 

 

Meanwhile Belichick goes from Brady to Newton in one offseason and the Patriots are still good. Ditto with Harbaugh from Flacco to Jackson. Reid with Smith to Mahomes. Good coaches adapt to their players, not vice versa.